Joan Bottarini
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, RevPAR exceeded our expectations, increasing 5.4% compared to last year, driven by strong demand across our global portfolio and continued strength of the high-end traveler. In the United States, RevPAR increased 3.3% compared to last year. Performance was led by our full-service hotels, which benefited from strong leisure demand, including at our resorts, which had a particularly strong March. Group RevPAR was up 1.2% in the face of more difficult comparisons in Washington, D.C. due to the January 2025 presidential inauguration. We also saw improvements in select service RevPAR, which increased 1.8%, led by business transient demand. Outside the United States, RevPAR growth was even stronger, increasing over 8% and reflecting robust international travel demand. Greater China grew RevPAR over 12% in the quarter, supported by improved domestic leisure demand, particularly during the Lunar New Year holiday in February. Along with improved international inbound travel, including from the United States. Asia Pacific, excluding Greater China RevPAR increased over 11%, driven by strong inbound travel and demand across key markets. Europe continued to perform well, with RevPAR growth of 7.5%, supported by strong leisure travel and solid group demand benefiting from the Olympics in Milan. RevPAR in the Middle East and Africa declined by approximately 4% compared to last year due to the conflict in the Middle East. Net package RevPAR in our all-inclusive portfolio increased 7.4% and compared to last year despite the security concerns in Mexico beginning in late February. Overall, our first quarter results reflect strong demand for premium leisure travel globally and a healthy commercial travel backdrop. Turning to our financial results. Our core fee business continued to perform well in the first quarter, supported by our top line performance, with tell level profitability, increasing scale and the quality of our portfolio. Gross fees increased approximately 9% to $333 million, driven by strong performance across our managed portfolio, fees from newly opened hotels and the newly structured management agreements from the Playa portfolio. We also grew incentive fees approximately 14%, reflecting solid hotel level profitability, particularly in international markets. In the first quarter, owned and leased segment adjusted EBITDA declined by approximately $2 million adjusted for the impact of asset sales. Distribution segment adjusted EBITDA declined versus the prior year due to temporary factors, including the closure of hotels in Jamaica because of Hurricane Melissa and lower demand in Mexico due to security concerns. The distribution segment was also impacted by lower demand for 4-star properties a dynamic we have shared that will take time to return to previous levels as travel spend improves for this consumer segment. Overall, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reflects the strength of our core fee business. As of March 31, we had total liquidity of approximately $2.2 billion, including $1.5 billion of capacity on our revolving credit facility. In the first quarter, we repurchased $135 million of Class A common stock, returning approximately $149 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We ended the quarter with $543 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. We remain committed to our investment-grade profile and our balance sheet is strong. Looking ahead to the rest of 2026. We are operating in a dynamic environment that varies from region to region. RevPAR in the Middle East is expected to be down significantly compared to last year, impacting fees by approximately $10 million for the balance of the year. Pace for our all-inclusive resorts in the Americas is up in the low single digits in the second quarter due to lower demand in Mexico. While we expect positive net package RevPAR growth in the Americas, we do not expect to see the same level of growth for the remainder of the year compared to the first quarter due to the disruptions from the security concerns in February. Overall, these disruptions are expected to have a modest impact to results. We are increasingly positive about the outlook for the United States. Forward-booking trends in the United States are strong for the balance of 2026 with group pace for full service hotels up in the mid-single digits for the remainder of the year. We continue to hear positive feedback from our group and corporate customers about their intent to travel this year, and we expect the strong leisure trends to continue. We are also seeing improved select service trends as we lap easier comparisons starting in the second quarter. Outside of the United States, we also expect performance in Greater China and the rest of Asia to be very strong in the balance of 2026. We believe the improved performance in the United States supports increasing our full year system-wide RevPAR growth outlook to between 2% to 4%. RevPAR in the United States could grow between 2% and 3% for the full year, reflecting the improved trends that I just reviewed. We expect moderately higher growth in international markets compared to the United States overall, but growth will be lower compared to our expectations last quarter, primarily due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. We expect net rooms growth of 6% to 7% for the full year with continued momentum behind our new brands, driving another year of strong organic growth. We are raising our gross fees outlook for the full year and expect fees to grow between 9% to 11% in the range of $1.305 billion to $1.335 billion. We are maintaining our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook range and we expect adjusted EBITDA to grow at a strong rate of 13% to 18% in the range of $1.155 billion to $1.205 billion. This outlook reflects stronger performance in our core fee business, offset by revised expectations for the Distribution segment, which we believe will decline by approximately $25 million for the full year compared to 2025. including $15 million in the second quarter from the impact of the security concerns in Mexico. We are maintaining our adjusted free cash flow outlook for the full year in the range of $580 million to $630 million an increase of between 20% to 30%. This reflects the conversion of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow of at least 50% for the full year. Finally, we expect to return between $325 million and $375 million of capital to shareholders for the full year through share repurchases and dividends. For the second quarter of 2026, we expect global RevPAR growth of around 3%, which reflects solid growth in the United States, including the start of the FIFA World Cup in June and continued strength in international markets, except for the Middle East. Gross fees could grow in the mid-single-digit range in the second quarter compared to last year. We expect adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter to be up in the mid-single digits compared to what we reported in the second quarter of 2025 after removing $17 million of pro rata JV EBITDA consistent with our updated definition and $14 million of owned and leased adjusted EBITDA for the period of ownership of supply portfolio. Please refer to Schedule A 9 in this morning's earnings release for the 2025 adjusted EBITDA baseline by quarter which excludes pro rata share of JV EBITDA and asset sales that were completed last year. In closing, our first quarter results reflect the strength of our core fee-driven earnings, our results demonstrate the performance of our brands and the resilience of our premium customer base across brands and geographies in the face of a dynamic operating environment. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver continued growth, supported by our strong pipeline, differentiated brand portfolio and disciplined approach to capital allocation. We believe we are well positioned to navigate a dynamic environment while continuing to deliver meaningful long-term value for our shareholders. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we're now happy to answer your questions.