Sean Deason
Analyst · BWS Financial
Thanks, Olivier, and welcome, everyone. I will begin my remarks on Slide 5. Starting with our Q4 2021 results, a challenging production environment, hampered by continued semiconductor shortages, depressed volumes compared to Q4 2020. Net sales declined 14% to $862 million at constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA also declined 13% to $125 million in the fourth quarter. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin increased 20 basis points to 15%, primarily driven by an improved product mix from higher-margin commercial vehicle and aftermarket products. We will discuss this in greater detail in a few minutes. Adjusted free cash flow in Q4 2021 was $151 million and increased sequentially from Q3, driven by improved volumes and working capital releases, but down from last year's Q4 figure of $236 million due to volume reductions. Lastly, adjusted net income was virtually unchanged from 2020 at $78 million versus $77 million as compared to Q4 2020. Overall, Garrett improved our Q4 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin even in the face of reduced production and sales. Turning now to Slide 6. You will see our net sales bridge for the quarter by product category. As you may remember, Q4 of 2020 had a record volume of 4 million units produced, primarily driven by gasoline program launches in China and North America. The 14% net sales reduction versus Q4 of 2020 reflects decreases in gasoline and diesel products, primarily due to semiconductor shortages on passenger vehicles where gasoline sales were down 15% and diesel down 29%. However, for the quarter, the higher-margin businesses of commercial vehicles and aftermarket products were up 3% and 18%, respectively, at constant currency. This resulted in a favorable mix for the quarter and contributed to a margin improvement, which we will see on the next slide, and is driven in part by commercial vehicle and aftermarket products, which combined, comprised 32% of fourth quarter net sales. Lastly, the FX impact to Q4 to Q4 was a $12 million headwind, primarily driven by a stronger dollar to euro exchange rate. Turning to Slide 7. You will see our Q4 to Q4 adjusted EBITDA bridge. Although Q4 2021 volumes of 3.3 million units were up 6% sequentially from Q3 2021, they were down 18% from Q4 2020's record volume of 4 million units. This led to a $52 million volume-related reduction, which was further exacerbated by commodity and transportation inflation, partially offset by improvements in product mix, price, productivity and SG&A. Overall, adjusted EBITDA decreased $20 million to $129 million in Q4 2021 versus $149 million last year. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin increased 20 basis points to 15% for Q4 2021, as mentioned earlier, driven by increases in commercial vehicles and aftermarket products, both with higher margins, offsetting the decrease in light vehicle products with lower margins, and this drove a favorable mix in adjusted EBITDA. Turning to Slide 8, you will see our full year comparison. Garrett reported 2021 net sales just over $3.6 billion, representing growth of 20% on a GAAP basis and 15% at constant currency, significantly outpacing the 2021 global auto production by 12.5 percentage points. Adjusted EBITDA for 2021 increased 38% year-over-year to $607 million, which is just above the midpoint of our revised guidance range and equates to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.7% for 2021 and a 220 basis point margin expansion as we were able to improve our profitably due in part to a favorable product mix from commercial vehicle and aftermarket products. Adjusted free cash flow increased from $128 million in 2020 to $367 million in 2021, representing a 111% adjusted free cash flow conversion rate, reflecting our ability to capitalize on a favorable mix and generate solid cash flow even in a volatile macro environment. Lastly, adjusted net income was $331 million in 2021, up from $215 million in 2020 and excludes FX losses, reorganization and repositioning charges and stock-based compensation, representing an increase of 54% year-over-year. Overall, Garrett's strong 2021 results delivered across all key financial metrics, and we demonstrated our ability to grow while managing the various headwinds and the supply chain challenge inflationary environment. Turning to Slide 9. We show our net sales bridge for 2021 versus 2020, and we provide net sales by product category. For the full year of 2021, we experienced solid growth across all regions and product lines, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2020 results. Gasoline products grew 15% at constant currency and 39% of total net sales. Next, diesel products grew 9% and were 29% of sales. On a year-over-year basis, the best performing products for 2021 were from the commercial vehicle and aftermarket businesses, growing 25% and 21%, respectively. The strong growth in these high-value businesses represented 30% of our 2021 sales and demonstrates the benefit of Garrett's well-diversified and broad portfolio of products across all verticals. The overall FX impact in 2021 was a $132 million tailwind and reflective of a stronger euro to dollar exchange rate versus 2020. Overall, Garrett grew net sales at 15% at constant currency, with the strongest growth in the high-value businesses of commercial vehicle and aftermarket businesses. Turning now to Slide 10. You can see our adjusted EBITDA walk for 2021 as compared to 2020. In 2021, our production volumes totaled 13.7 million units, an increase of 14% compared to 2020. For 2021, Garrett's adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $607 million due to improvements in volume and productivity and SG&A, partially offset by product mix, price and price net of inflation pass-through as well as higher commodity and transportation inflation costs. As Olivier referenced a few moments ago, we also increased R&D spending by $17 million in 2021 as compared with 2020, with 40% of our total R&D spend dedicated to new technologies. In addition, the FX impact in 2021 was a $28 million tailwind and reflected -- and reflective of a stronger euro-to-dollar exchange rate versus 2020. Overall, our adjusted EBITDA margin in 2021 was 16.7% and represented a year-over-year improvement of 220 basis points. Importantly, our year-over-year incremental margin was 28%, driven by productivity gains, volume leverage and foreign exchange gains. Productivity remains a priority in this environment as supply chain and inflation issues persist, affecting freight, logistics, energy and commodity costs. In 2021, we work closely with our global customers and suppliers to mitigate much of this impact, helped by favorable mix of our product portfolio. In 2022, we intend to continue to work closely with our customers and suppliers to address the increased complexities of our supply chain dynamics. Turning to Slide 11. Garrett's high working capital turnover has historically provided a source of cash on an annual basis, assuming an increasing volume and sales environment. However, as we discussed on our Q3 call, the negative impact of lower volume, which was primarily driven by the global chip shortage, resulted in working capital being a use of cash in Q2 and Q3 of 2021. As shown on the right-hand side of this slide, and as we pointed out on our Q3 call, working capital for Q4 once again moved back to become a source of cash contributing $84 million in Q4. Shifting to the left-hand side of the slide, you will see the 2021 bridge from adjusted EBITDA to adjusted FCF, deducting the full year change in working capital, cash taxes, cash interest and capital expenditures resulting in free cash flow of $367 million for the year. In 2021, we were able to optimize our inventory as customer production schedules began to stabilize in the fourth quarter along with demand. Before we leave this slide, I would also like to mention that we would also expect generally positive net working capital contributions in 2022, given our outlook for gradually improving sales and volume cadence throughout the year. Turning to Slide 12. We ended 2021 with available liquidity of $720 million, including $423 million in unrestricted cash and approximately $297 million in undrawn commitments under our $300 million revolving credit facility. Additionally, in January of 2022, we increased our revolver capacity by $124 million to $424 million, which further improves our liquidity for 2022. We also accelerated the previously announced $211 million Series B preferred stock redemption into Q4 of 2021, saving $2 million in additional interest expense. And as mentioned, we expect an additional $197 million in Series B redemptions prior to the end of the first quarter of 2022, helping to further improve our leverage ratio. Following the Q4 2021 payment, the present value of the remaining scheduled redemption payments on the Series B shares is $395 million. As of December 31, 2021, and including the Series B preferred stock, Garrett's gross and net debt to consolidated EBITDA ratios were 2.64x and 1.95x. I should also mention that in January, Moody's recognized our deleveraging progress and upgraded Garrett to BA2 for our corporate family rating, which was previously BA3. I am also pleased to report that in Q4, we repurchased 509,000 common shares and 1.8 million Series A preferred shares, for a total equity decrease of $19 million. Lastly, in the market capitalization table, you can see our current market capitalization of approximately $2.6 billion. This figure is comprised of 246 million shares of Series A securities and 65 million common shares, which positions Garrett Motion as a solid mid-cap company. Overall, we are excited about the progress made to date as we have improved our leverage profile, repurchased meaningful equity in the fourth quarter of 2021, under our pro-rata stock repurchase program, and we increased our RCF capacity in January 2022 as we focus our investments on innovative new products and solutions to address the future needs of the automotive industry. Turning now to Slide 13. We provide our 2022 outlook. As you can see, we have delineated ranges for key metrics in 2022 as well as our planning assumptions. For greater detail, I would also point you to the reconciliations of each of these metrics to the nearest GAAP figure as shown in the appendix. The key full year 2022 assumptions on the major metrics using the midpoints of the ranges are global light vehicle auto production of 7%, net sales rounding to $3.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $620 million and net cash provided by operating activities of $535 million; and last but not least, adjusted free cash flow of $450 million. Given this outlook, we are confident in our ability to continue to generate healthy cash flow even as we continue to invest in our strategic growth initiatives, and we do not expect the near-term industry challenges to dampen our long-term outlook or our focus on enhancing shareholder value. Having said that, we do expect a gradual rebound throughout the year with stronger second half results than what we expect in the first half of the year, as we started 2022 with ongoing impacts from COVID as well as continued inflationary pressures. In a nutshell and on a full year basis, we expect to largely offset inflation through productivity and we expect significant cost recovery through reduced pricing impacts. I should also caution that the timing of the cost pass-through we expect on a full year basis is not likely to be linear across quarters as ongoing conversations with OEMs and the implementation of these recovery mechanisms take time. Turning to the right-hand side of the page, we show graphically the expected bridge from 2021's adjusted EBITDA of $607 million to the midpoint of our 2022 adjusted EBITDA range of $620 million. As you see, on a full year basis, we expect a significant lift from increased volume of $100 million in 2022, partially offset by a $40 million product mix impact as production normalizes across our verticals, and which I can confirm, is already happening and beginning to happen as improved chip supply drives growth across our portfolio. As you can see, we also expect $70 million in commodity and transportation inflation costs for the year, which should be offset by $79 million of improvement in productivity and SG&A. As previously mentioned, we also expect to increase our spending for new technology investments by an incremental $18 million in R&D, and we now estimate roughly half of the total R&D spend for 2022 will be in new technology areas. Lastly, we estimate a $26 million FX headwind on adjusted EBITDA from using a 1.13 dollar-to-euro exchange rate for 2022 planning purposes. In summary, Garrett expects to make 2022 another year of focused execution in a gradually improving macro environment while driving greater long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I will now hand it back to Olivier for his concluding remarks.