James Ryan
Analyst · Wolfe Research
Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. As Hilton already said, fourth quarter and full year '18, we're very pleased with. Obviously, '18 was a record-setting political year for us and we think that bodes very well for 2020.
Turning to our first quarter guidance. I'm going to focus my comments on a combined historical information that we put out for Q1. I'll also point out that in the 8-K that was filed a little earlier this morning, there was an exhibit where certain select combined historical revenues in certain select operating expenses for 2018, '17 and '16 have been published by quarter, so that should help everybody with their modeling.
And I'll remind everybody that combined historical does not include expected synergies of any transaction. It is merely the combination of historical record, adding in acquisition and contracting out divestitures.
Also, our guidance for Q1 does not include the 2 United stations that we will begin operating tomorrow under a pre-closing LMA, so stations, while they're great stations, very powerful in their local markets, we're delighted to be acquiring them, are not material to the quarter or to any of Gray's full year operations.
Our core level with national is expected to be down in the mid-single digit range, but as Pat mentioned a moment ago, we had $12.7 million of total local and national revenue in the Winter Olympics last year, which we're going again. And in that $12.7 million, we had $3.6 million of auto-related advertising. So it clearly is a significant event for us in '18, which does affect our ability a little bit for our '19 Q1. However, if you exclude the Olympics, we would expect our core local and national to be approximately flat in Q1 '18.
We are very pleased with the anticipated growth in retrans revenue of a low 20% range. Remember that legacy Gray and legacy Raycom, as Kevin just said, has very few MVPD subs to renegotiate. And we commented before that Gray's NBC contract at the annual escalator is generally a low double-digit percentage. So we are very pleased that our overall retransmission growth in Q1 will be up 22% to 23% growth revenue -- retrans revenue. And that obviously is reflecting the synergies of Gray's effort, [ acquired quads and has been ] a legacy Raycom station. We are reaffirming our previously announced net retrans synergy of at least $15 million for the entire year. Our broadcast expenses in Q1 have 2 significant components. First, there is $33 million to $34 million in nonrecurring expenses associated with the Raycom transaction, including $27.6 million of expense to terminate the national [indiscernible] and about $5.3 million of severance or other compensation-related expense in the broadcast expense line.
Second, as Kevin mentioned, our NBC agreements repriced under the new agreement effective January 1. Retrans is expected to grow quarter-over-quarter $19 million to $20 million. If you exclude both of those items, then our broadcast operating expense in Q1, it would be essentially flat to Q1 '18 on a combined historical basis.
Similarly, our corporate expenses in '19 are impacted by transaction-related expenses of $29 million to $30 million. Again, that is M&A advisory fees, legal and accounting fees, severance and other transaction-related compensation, which is -- would be nonrecurring. If you exclude those nonrecurring charges, again, our corporate expense would be approximately flat to '18 on a combined historical basis.
I'd like to give some updates on pro forma leverage for '18. We have not yet completed the preparation and audit of the carve-out statements for Raycom for the year ended 12/31/18. Therefore, my following comments are on a preliminary basis based on internal forecast and do not reflect the audited statements. That being said, outstanding debt post closing was $3.97 billion as of 12/31/18 or would have been. We estimate our cash on hand as of closing would have been about $200 million. On a trailing 8-quarter basis as of 12/31/18, our operating cash flow is defined in our senior credit facility, we estimate would have been in a range of $780 million to $795 million.
That's higher than when we announced the deal last June. And obviously, that has in part reflect some very, very strong political we saw in the second of the year of '18. On a trailing 12-month basis, the operating cash flow would be in a range of approximately $880 million to $900 million. Those cash flow estimates do include the impact of the $80 million of synergies we announced at -- when we announced the deal. And I'll update you on synergies in a moment.
With these results in perspective, if you look to our November investor presentation that is on our website, our operating cash flow combined historical with synergies for '15 was approximately $803 million, in '17 it was about $686 million. Our leverage ratio at 12/31, we're currently estimating would have been somewhere between 4.85x and 4.75x. If you recall, when we announced the deal, we said we would be approximately 5x, and that announcement was last June. When we closed the deal in January, we said we would be between 5 and 4.75. And clearly, our expectation would be towards the lower end of the range, closer to 4.75. And again, that leverage ratio would reflect the synergy number.
We currently estimate free cash at December 31 would have been a range of $500 million to $525 million. Again, if you go back to our investor deck for November that's on our website, 2016 free cash was estimated at about $401 million and 2017 free cash was about $300 million. So we're very, very pleased at where we are at the outset of 2019.
Our common stock post-closing is approximately 100 million shares outstanding for both the GTN and the GTNa on a combined basis. Now let me update you on our synergies.
We had said at the outset that we expected $80 million of synergies. To date, 8 weeks in post closing, we're at $61 million that's been essentially locked-in. That $61 million represents $22 million of payroll and benefits. We've already either eliminated or have scheduled to eliminate 135 positions across the entire combined company. Also, given changes to our benefit plan, we will have an additional approximately $4 million of savings -- $4 million of cash savings from benefit plan changes.
For contractual arrangements, we have savings of $18 million to $20 million, that would reflect the annual run rate of the former national rep commission and it would reflect the savings and renegotiating the Nielsen and Comscore agreement at very favorable pricing terms to Gray.
Our net retrans, we're very comfortable that we'll have a net retrans uplift of at least $15 million. In addition, the legacy Raycom aircraft unit has been closed down, saving approximately $2 million a year. And the planes [ have been filled ] with net proceeds of approximately $2.7 million. So I would say that, first of all, those expenses, those savings, those synergies will all be realized ratably as we go through the year. We, I think, are off to a very good start at $61 million, about 75% of our goal. There will be other opportunities for us as we progress through the year. And you know, we will not be bashful about taking advantage -- taking every opportunity that we can uncover.
So at this point, I'll turn the call back to Hilton.