Earnings Labs

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 9, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Keith, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to hand the program over to Christina Zamarro, Goodyear's Vice President, Investor Relations.

Christina Zamarro - Vice President, Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Keith, and thank you everyone for joining us for Goodyear's fourth quarter 2015 earnings call. Joining me today are Rich Kramer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Laura Thompson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, there are a few items we need to cover. To begin, the supporting slide presentation for today's call can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com. And a replay of this call will be available later today. Replay instructions were included in our earnings release issued earlier this morning. If I could now draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on slide two. I would like to remind participants on today's call that our presentation includes some forward-looking statements about Goodyear's future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today. The most significant factors that could affect future results are outlined in Goodyear's filings with the SEC and in our earnings release. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Our financial results are presented on a GAAP basis and, in some cases, a non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP financial measures discussed on the call are reconciled to the U.S. GAAP equivalent as part of the Appendix to the slide presentation. And, with that, I will now turn the call over to Rich. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Christina, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll provide a review of our fourth quarter and full year results, and I'll then cover the highlights and provide context for each of our business units headed into 2016. I'll also provide some thoughts that look beyond this year before I turn the…

Operator

Operator

And we can take our first question from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Hi. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Ryan.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Good morning. Obviously, the margin in the quarter in North America is historically extremely high and I think a record for any 4Q, right? But with that said, as I look at the past couple of years, it does not appear that you have typically experienced a sequential deceleration in margin from 3Q to 4Q, at least to the same degree as this year. Can you talk in some more detail about the puts and takes there, whether due to Sumitomo or any other factor? And then also if you could share, or at least directionally speak to, the North America or now combined North and South America margin assumption that is embedded in the 2016 SOI guide. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Ryan, so the North America margin, on a sequential basis, if you look at it, we were about 16.3% last quarter down to about 13.9%, call it 16% to 14%. And if you look at that, I'd really highlight two things as impacting that. And the one was just higher advertising spend than we normally do. And I think, if you look at the NCAA College Football Playoff series coverage, hopefully many on the call were watching that, we had a lot of coverage on that. First time, we really had that expensive of coverage. Obviously, our spend went up, but as we look at it, it was well worth the cost of doing that, and that did hit our margin for the quarter. And in addition to that, we did see a little bit of just product mix change as we saw our fourth quarter. Clearly, our consumer business margins continue to be very strong based on a lot of the things we talked about in terms of new products…

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Right. That helps a lot. My last question is just that I read recently the United Steelworkers were filing a petition for tariffs now on heavy truck tires imported from China, similar to the passenger car and light truck tires earlier. Can you talk about the likelihood that any tariffs might be imposed and what implications, if any, there might be to your business? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Ryan, as we've done in the past and will do again, we really don't comment on that. Our view as a global company is we support free and fair trade. I think it's an underpinning of our businesses as we go. So, we really won't comment on that. What I will say is having seen the tariffs come on in the U.S. before in the consumer business, I'll just remind everyone that if in fact it were to pass, remember what we saw in the past. We see a lot of pre-buy activity and then sharp declines in buying subsequent to that. So we see distortions in the industry and that potentially could happen in the truck business, if these things were to ultimately pass. And additionally, what we would point out is, as we've seen in the past, those tires end up going to different places. So, we saw consumer tires go down to Latin America, a number of years back, when the real was very strong. More recently, we've seen consumer tires go over to Eastern Europe. So tires will move around and I just say that as sort of a reminder of everyone as they think about this.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

That's helpful too. Congrats on the quarter. Thanks. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Let's take our next question from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Good morning, everybody. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Rod. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

I had a couple of things. I was wondering if you can just give us a little bit more color on what drove the positive pricing year-over-year in the fourth quarter. I think that this might be the first time that we saw positive pricing since maybe late 2012. I might be wrong on that. But what's happening there? And then, as we sort of think about going forward, net price versus raw materials, I would think that you're probably seeing gross raw materials of at least $275 million, you're assuming net benefit of maybe 75% of this. But at the same time, you're saying that you're experiencing some challenges in meeting demand in some of the higher-end tires. So, maybe just give us some color on the pricing dynamics and how Goodyear is affected? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Rod, I think just from a broad perspective in terms of our price/mix performance in the quarter and for the year, I would frankly go back to the track record that we've demonstrated over a number of years of managing a price/mix versus raw materials very well in a variety of different environments. I know you recall, we went through about a three-year, four-year period where we had significantly increasing our raw material prices and where we've now had a number of years, including going on into 2016, of decreasing raw material prices. And we managed very well our price/mix on the way up, dealing with those increased costs. It took us a while to catch up, if you remember. And I think we're demonstrating an ability to manage price/mix versus raw materials on the way down. And I think, if we can say what's underpinning that, I would suggest to you again this notion of how we've built a very aligned business model selling the Goodyear value proposition to our customers, not just built upon a product and a tire but also built around the marketing that we bring, even the new e-commerce platforms that we're bringing, the sales, tools and training. All those type of things, our customers, our dealers, our distributors are seeing the value of that and that is certainly competitively advantaging Goodyear. And our goal always was for that to turn up in the value we bring to the dealers and creating value for them and certainly creating value for us. So, I would say that's, in particular, what I would say is driving it. Obviously, if we go around the world, we have a variety of different circumstances I can talk to as well, given devaluations of currencies and all that sort of thing, but maybe I'll stop there for a moment.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay. So, as you look at this, it's a pretty impressive accomplishment to have positive pricing in a deflationary raw material cost environment. So, I'm just wondering, do you feel like the current supply demand dynamics that you see would support that continuing into maybe the beginning of this year, in 2016? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Rod, again, I think I'd have to answer that almost by region. I think on a macro basis, though, your point continues to be the right one that we've seen and that's the demand for those high complex tires still, we see, being ahead of supply. And as a consequence, that's a positive dynamic for our industry as we look ahead. The rest of the world, I'll also say, it's a tough place. As we look at EMEA right now, very competitive environment, and with what has been the devaluation of the euro, I know we're seeing a little bit of reversal of that as the reason. But certainly that makes our raw materials more expensive. So we're really working on our value proposition, in Europe as well, aligning ourselves with our dealers, putting our new products out there and trying to create value for them and for us again with that. In Latin America, obviously, Brazil is in a very difficult situation. The real, I think, peaked at BRL 4.20 and that's certainly putting a lot of pressure on our raw material costs there as well and we're obviously being very active trying to make sure that we can recover that. And in Asia, I think that we've always demonstrated very good capabilities to deliver price/mix versus raw material. Remember that raw material hits us much quicker in Asia, but given where we play a lot in performance in SUV, our distribution in our business model there likes us to – allows us to perform very well there. And I think if you add all that up, we've got a lot of positives and certainly headwinds going into 2016, but if you look at the outlook that Laura highlighted... Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: ... a word about another $75 million of positive price/mix versus raws going into 2016. But look, we've got to continue to work hard and make sure we're delivering that value for our customers and, as I said, it's been working.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

And just lastly, could you just clarify when Mexico comes online for you in North America and the magnitude of the volume benefit you get there? And also a clarification on your free cash flow. If we take your operating cash flow, the $1.687 billion minus your CapEx around $700 million, so when you present this, the table, could you just remind us what you're excluding from that is there – are you excluding restructuring cash or some pension contributions from that? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So, maybe I'll take the second one first, Rod. So, page 10 of the deck walks through the net income to the free cash flow. But the short answer to your question is the exclusion of the restructuring and the pension.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Okay. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay?

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Yes. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And then back real quickly to Mexico, we broke ground mid-year this year. We do expect to start producing consumer tires there early in 2017, second quarter-ish is where we're at. That will ramp up to full capacity by the end of 2019. So we'll have kind of a slow start to testings, work through and then that momentum will build. Certainly, not expecting a tremendous amount of tires in 2017 to be saleable. It is, like I said, when we get to 2019, beyond an annual rate of about 6 million consumer tires.

Rod A. Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Rod.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, David. David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Just a few from me. On the cost savings versus inflation, ex some of the one-time things there that are shifting from 2015 to 2016 with the general product liability, where do you feel like you are in the run rate here? Are we still early innings, middle innings or is it later stage? How much run rate do you really think you have in kind of generating that $176 million or $160 million underlying net cost savings going forward? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good. Yeah, David, and this is one of my favorite subjects actually as we go. So, as you mentioned, page 16 is in the deck to try to walk through. There are puts and takes, 2015 versus 2016, but that underlying net cost savings performance is still there, the fundamentals remain very strong. So, we laid the foundation for a lot of these programs back several years. But really, to answer your question, it's a little bit of a mixed bag. Short answer is, there is plenty of runway left on operational excellence initiatives. But this plan, this cost savings, the beauty of it is, in the early years, there were some initiatives that paid off quite quickly and others that needed to build momentum through our plans over time. One aspect of it – we have an even – on conversion savings, our plant optimization hasn't been fully rolled out in all of our plants yet and won't be quite finished even in 2016. So, again, a lot…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with CLSA. Please go ahead.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead

Hey. Good morning, everybody. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Emmanuel. Good morning. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead

So, first one is actually about the North American volumes. It looks like they were down very slightly excluding the impact of the, I guess, deconsolidation. So, can you maybe walk us through the drivers of what's happening in North America? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Emmanuel, I would say – before I go to the volume, I would just say I am extremely pleased with our North America businesses' performance in the fourth quarter as well as all of 2015 and certainly even the years moving up to that. As I mentioned earlier, our margin for the year was 14.3%, segment operating income margin, a record for us in a mature market in North America. We would put that up against any business anywhere, so very strong, and that business is really benefiting from the aligned business model that I mentioned earlier that we built over the number of years and you're seeing that come through. So we're very, very pleased, and, as Laura mentioned, we feel there's opportunities to continue to grow this business, particularly with the incremental HVA supply coming on. As we look to Q4, I think a couple of things. One, we had a pretty strong comp in Q4 of 2014, because if you remember, we had sort of a lot of customers buying in Q3 2014 as related to the tariffs at that moment in time. Our results in Q3, if you remember, versus the industry were a little bit low. Q4 in turn was actually pretty strong for us in 2014. So we had a pretty strong comp in that period. Secondly, this question of mixing up around HVA tires, I think is very relevant. So while we are improving our mix and our margin, we talked…

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks for the color. And the – one on the price/mix again, maybe a follow-up to Rod's question earlier. So, in the fourth quarter, you had a positive, which obviously an impressive accomplishment, if we look just at the price/mix bucket and I take very well your point in terms of improving mix. Yet, the implied price/mix bucket for your full year 2016 guidance seems to be a negative maybe to a tune of about $200 million or so. So how do see the environment both for pricing but also your own mix as you move into 2016? Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think we're very confident about our mix going into – our price/mix versus raw material equation going into 2016. I think if you look at the guidance that we gave on page 12 of the slide, we're saying price/mix versus raws in 2016 is about $75 million year-over-year improvement. And, Emmanuel, I would say, again, I feel very good about that in our business delivering that. When you look at the goals that we put ahead from 2015 to 2016, the 10% to 15%, getting $75 million of that improvement coming from price/mix versus raw material, I think, is something that we feel is doable, but is a very strong contributor to that year-over-year increase. So, maybe a long way of saying $75 million price/mix versus raw improvement, I'm very comfortable with in terms of the number that we're shooting for.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead

And then maybe finally for Laura, in terms of the cash flow outlook for 2016, you did very well in 2015. And then your guidance for 2016 is pretty broad, saying that it's actually positive. Can you just walk us through some of the big moving pieces when we compare 2015 with 2016? The CapEx seems to be up only slightly. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. And granted there's a couple of the items that are on page 13, some of the other assumptions. But as you walk through, D&A is about the same as what it would have been before. Global pension cash contributions are down year-over-year, pretty significantly frankly from a couple of different things. Interest expense down dramatically year-over-year. So a lot of good momentum as we go into 2016. Not a lot of changes versus 2015. We are projecting a small use of cash of about $50 million for working capital. And then you'll also recall that with the dissolution of these joint ventures around the world effective October 1, 2015, that we no longer have this kind of minority interest either as part of it, okay? Now, again, feel good about our cash outflows as we go. We'll give you more color on these details as we move throughout the year.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you so much. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our final question from Anthony Deem with KeyBanc. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. Good morning, Anthony. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi. Good morning, Anthony.

Anthony J. Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. I'd just like to double check the share repurchase expectation. So, your authorization increased to $1.1 billion as part of the three-year capital allocation plan. It looks like about $700 million left in that program after $400 million completed in the past couple of years. So, you mentioned the repurchase might be back-half loaded. So, should we essentially assume $650 million to $700 million, model that into the back half of 2016 for share repurchase? Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, what I'd say is as we look at 2016 and as was always the case, our repurchases are dependent on our performance and hitting our financial targets that we provide. We have a big seasonal use of cash earlier in the year. And given that, we would expect the majority of the repurchase to come in the second half of 2016 or very early in 2017. And we would, at this point, say about $500 million worth, again, second half of 2016, very early 2017 kind of timeframe.

Anthony J. Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc

Okay. And then, just lastly, we saw higher-than-expected other operating expenses below the segment income line in fourth quarter, at least certainly relative to our model. Looking at it, maybe over 2% of sales, which is well beyond the typical 1% we see in our other operating expense line. So, I'm just wondering is there anything out of the ordinary in the quarter in those expenses and maybe can you give any guidance for next year on other operating expenses below the segment income line. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Sure. So, I'll answer your last question first. So, corporate other for 2016 on a full-year basis would be about $165 million. And you're correct. Corporate other expense in 2015 was higher, higher than we expected. And there's a couple of different things going on. But one of them was really this piece we talked about related to cost savings. For – just to be very, very simple here, for better kind of efficiency and standardization around the globe, there are certain programs that we develop kind of on a corporate side or within one place, one way. And then as we feel confident in those programs, we begin to roll those out to the SBUs. So, in 2015, that expense was in corporate other, causing it to be higher than you expected, but that will get moved out into SOI, again, no change to EBIT, and put in to the regions in 2016. Okay? So, that's one kind of change year-over-year. And then no doubt, in addition to that, the strong performance we had in our financials in 2015 then led to an increase in incentive comp as well, and that is booked in corporate other.

Anthony J. Deem - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc

Okay. Thank you very much. Laura K. Thompson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. You're welcome. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Anthony.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Q&A session. I'd like to return the floor to our presenters for closing remarks. Richard J. Kramer - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I just want to thank everyone for their attention today. We had longer prepared remarks, but hopefully those will help you understanding our business in 2015, and how we're thinking through 2016. So, thank you for your attention.