Richard Krawmer
Analyst · Citi
Yes, Itay, I'll start on volume. Laura can jump in on SOI as well. I would say the first quarter was, as we said, a pause. It had a number of anomalies in it. Most significant were the weather, particularly the January weather in North America, which we tried to depict for you in the slide included in the deck. That was really an anomaly that really impacted the full quarter but really wasn't reflective of or indicative of the trend that we saw, particularly in consumer replacement. So I think, number one, first quarter for North America, really you have to look at the trend coming out of February and March. And maybe to add even a little bit more color to that, we gave you sort of total reportable units on Slide 5 in the deck. If I take that back to consumer replacement, January was actually more severe. It was down higher than the 9%, about 11%. And February and March were actually stronger than the total in consumer replacement, we're up 3% in February and up 7% in March. So with the volume we had, I think it makes our North America earnings really very impressive in terms of what the team put forward. But I think if you look at those run rates, I think it gets us back to the expected run rates of 2% to 3%. In terms of Venezuela, we will see second quarter units come back after we've got the team working back there in the factory. I mean, we literally have people stacked up at our stores to buy tires. So Q2 volume will improve in Venezuela. The Brazil OE volumes that Laura mentioned, those will continue to be an issue for them -- for us probably for the balance of the year. You're very familiar with what's happening with the OEMs down there. And I might add even a little bit more color to China. In China, what we're seeing -- again, we believe in it, long term, for certain, but what we're really seeing there is a combination of sort of a little bit weaker economy. We see a bit of tightening credit for reasons I think everyone on the call is familiar with. And we see dealers holding back a bit because of decreasing natural rubber, which flows through their inventory faster than other parts of the world. So as we look to the balance of the year, we think that China will also improve from a volume perspective. In terms of the 2% to 3% trend moving ahead, I think that we really aren't going to get any more specific in terms of the high end or low end of the range. There are so many things that we have to factor into it. I think we're happy saying 2% to 3% is the best guidance we want to give on that.