Tom Lister
Analyst · Brett Hendrickson with Nokomis Capital. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tassos. As usual, and for the benefit of listeners who are new to GSL. Slide 11 is intended to highlight the ship sizes on which our business is focused, and which will help the subsequent slides in context. So GSL is focused on midsize and smaller ships, which is shorthand for ships ranging from about 2,000 TEU up to about 10,000 TEU which is effectively the liquid charter market. The top map on the left shows the deployment of all our sizes of ship, i.e. ships under 10,000 TEU and emphasizes the operational flexibility. As you can see, they're deployed everywhere. The bottom map on the other hand shows where the big ships, those larger than 10,000 TEU are deployed, which tends to be on the East West Mainlane or arterial trades where the cargo volumes and shoreside infrastructure can support them. And it's important to note that over 70%, 70% of global containerized trade volumes are moved outside the Mainlanes in the North, South Regional and intermediate trades served primarily by ships like ours. In his opening remarks, George acknowledged the cloudier macro and geopolitical outlook that we're all currently facing, and the uncertainty that that may bring to the consumer demand front. But as usual, rather than trying to second guess how containerized demand itself may or may not evolve, we prefer to focus on the supply side where we do have visibility and against which investors and others can set containerized trade or GDP growth projections as they feel appropriate. Slide 12 shows the supply side trends that are barometer of health for the sector. The top chart shows idle capacity, which remains below 1%. So effectively full employment of the global fleet. The bottom chart tells a similar story, container ship recycling, scrapping was almost non-existent for container ships in 2021 and has fallen to zero year-to-date in 2022. Both these factors are symptomatic of the continued demand from liner operators for the limited capacity available in the market with even the very oldest ships finding continued employment. Slide 13 looks at the order book. Here you can see on the left, the composition of the order book by size segment covering deliveries scheduled to take place all the way through into 2025. Now, undeniably, the order book has expanded during the course of the last 18 months or so, reaching an overall order book to fleet ratio of 29.9% at the end of June. However, it continues to be heavily skewed towards the bigger ships over 10,000 TEU, for which the order book to fleet ratio is 52.3%. Meanwhile, our focus segments of 2,000 TEU to 10,000 TEU highlighted in the red box have a significantly lower ratio of a little over 15%. And there are two important points to keep in mind when assessing the order book. The first is that midsize and smaller container ship fleet is aging. As you can see from the chart on the right, if scrapping were to continue to be deferred, by the end of 2025, a substantial slice of the sub 10,000 TEU capacity currently on the water, about 1.5 million TEUs worth would be at least 25 years old, and candidates for the recycling yards. Net this out against the total order book of sub 10,000 TEU due to be delivered through to the end of 2025. And you would get implied net growth in these sizes of just 5.5%, which itself would be spread out over the coming 3.5 years or so. The second point is that 2023 marks the implementation of the new environmental decarbonization regulations, which according to growing industry consensus is expected to cause a slowing down of the global fleet to reduce emissions, thus reducing effective supply. To put that in context, reducing the average operating speed of the global container ship fleet by only one not is calculated by MSI, which is the independent consultancy we use to reduce effective supply by 6% to 7%. So, while macro uncertainty is very real, and the order book is growing faster than we would ideally like, we still see the supply side fundamentals for our focus sizes as supportive. Which brings us to slide 14, the charter market as you can see from the chart, while the charter market continued to firm through the first quarter of this year, upward momentum tailed off during the second quarter, albeit remaining at cyclical highs. Capacity is still tight, and demand is still there. Hence the new charters including the forward fixtures we've just announced, but the market is for the time being lacking the same firm direction we saw in previous quarters, and is probably best described as in the title of this slide as being in wait and see mode. On this basis, you will see on the right hand side of the slide that we have softened a little our guidance on term charter rates and durations available in the market for prompt tonnage today, still extremely attractive, but slightly off the all-time peaks we saw earlier in the year. And with that, I'll turn the call back to George to wrap up. George?