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Global Ship Lease, Inc. (GSL)

Q2 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 5, 2021

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Transcript

Ian Webber

Management

Thank you very much. Thank you. Good morning, good afternoon everybody and welcome to the GSL Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany the presentation are available at our website at www.globalshiplease.com. As usual, slides 2 and 3 remind you that, the call today may include forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations and assumptions, and are by their nature inherently uncertain and outside of the company's control. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to many factors, including those described in the safe harbor section of the slide presentation. We also draw your attention to the Risk Factors section in our most recent annual report on Form 20-F, which is for 2020 and was filed with the SEC on March 19, this year. You can obtain this via our website or by the SEC's. All of our statements are qualified by these and other disclosures in our reports filed with the SEC, and we don't undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to which we will refer during this call, to the most directly comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, please refer to the earnings release that we issued this morning. That's also available on our website. I'm joined as usual by Executive Chairman, George Youroukos; our Chief Financial Officer, Tassos Psaropoulos; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Tom Lister. George will begin the call with some high-level commentary, and an update on our current areas of focus. And then Tassos, Tom and I will take you through our recent achievements, quarterly results and financials and the current market environment. After that, we'll be pleased to take your questions. So turning now to slide 4, I'll pass the call to George.

George Youroukos

Management

Thank you, Ian. And good morning or good afternoon to all of you joining us today. After an excellent first quarter, the second quarter of 2021 has seen the container shipping industry and GSL in particular, continuing to reach new heights in ways that will benefit us for many years to come. We're currently in the midst of red-hot freight and charter markets based upon highly supportive fundamentals and exacerbated by poor concessions and an overburdened supply chain that have proven to be longer-term features of the market than was initially expected. In this environment, we have been very active year-to-date agreeing to acquire 23 ships, 19 of which have been delivered for approximately $0.5 billion and securing 40 new charters, representing $900 million of revenue. This has been achieved with only modest equity dilution from our capital raise in January. The 23 ships are well specified in the midsize and smaller vessel classes which continues to be our focus, with attached charters that minimize downside or residual risk. As a result, we have grown our fleet by over 50% this year driven our earnings dramatically higher to record levels in a sustainable manner and initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share more than twice than was originally expected. We have also refinanced the vast majority of our 2022 maturity debt, including the expensive 9.875% senior secured notes, significantly reducing our cost of capital. The rating agencies have acknowledged our improved credit quality. Both Moody's and S&P upgraded us in Q1, and Moody's has upgraded us again. So our rating today are B+ Stable and B1 Stable. Now from this materially improved strategic position, we are positioned to continue executing our proven growth strategy and seizing additional immediately accretive opportunities, ahead of us while maintaining the discipline and high…

Ian Webber

Management

Thank you, George. Let's turn to slide 6. If you follow GSL, you'll probably already be familiar with the 23 ships that we've acquired this year. I'll come to them shortly, but wanted to spend a few moments first on the additional value that we continue to generate from our pre-existing fleet. On this slide, we show those vessels which were part of the GSL fleet, as at the beginning of the year, less the La Tour which we sold at the end of June this year, on June 30th in fact. We've indicated in dark blue, those charters that have been agreed year-to-date. And you'll notice that, for nearly all of these, they're now for multiple years and are at rates that are materially above those that came before, in a number of instances quite dramatically above. Let me highlight for you the very first vessel on the list the 18-year-old $2,207-TEU Keta, which will transition in the fourth quarter of this year from a current day rate of $9,400 per day to a new rate of $25,000 per day all the way through 2025, when she'll become 22 years old. Similarly, further down the left, the 2002-built 6840-TEU GSL Nicoletta is currently earning $13,500 a day and will in short order the earning is $35750 per day well into 2024 when she too will be 22 years old. And just to remind you, that the operating leverage inherent in our business means that 100% of any revenue increase goes straight to our bottom-line both earnings and cash because our costs are fixed, our operating costs are largely fixed. By the way, it can take some time to negotiate a new charter and some time for that charter to become public. So some of the fixtures we are announcing…

Tassos Psaropoulos

Management

Thank you, Ian. As you know the first half of the year has been very active with a significant number of moving pieces in the financials. So, we have summarized the key points for you on slide 10. Revenue for the first half was $155.9 million, up from $142.3 million in the first half of 2020. Similarly, adjusted EBITDA was $96.2 million, up from $82.6 million in the first half of last year. Normalized net income, which adjusts for one-off items, was up from $24.4 million to $41.5 million. I would like to spend a moment on the one-off items now. In the second quarter, we completed the refinancing of all material 2022 debt maturities, which we commenced in the first quarter. We incurred prepayment fees of $1.4 million in relation to this refinancing. In addition, we sold our 2200 TEU 2001-build ship La Tour, recording a net gain of $7.8 million. Moving to the balance sheet items, there are various points to highlight. Our cash position at June 30, 2021, was $165.5 million. As I have mentioned above, in the quarter we have successfully refinanced our last material 2022 maturity debt. We have refinanced the three tranches of $143.8 million of this credit facility with new facilities with Deutsche, Credit Agricole and CNB FEL, pushing those maturities out to 2026 for the first two and 2028 for the third one reducing also annual debt service by about $11.1 million and bringing down our margins from 4.8% to 3.2%. Meantime, we have raised in the second quarter under our ATM program $7.6 million of our 2024 notes and $23.6 million of our perpetual preferred further increasing our flexibility. Additional funds have been raised in the quarter end. Regarding our acquisitions, for the seven Post-Panamax ships, we contracted to purchase in…

Tom Lister

Management

Thanks Tassos. Hello, everyone. Let's move to slide 15, which is intended to highlight the ship sizes on which we're focused, which will help put in context the subsequent slides. So we're focused on midsize and smaller ships, which is shorthand for ships ranging from about 2,000 TEU up to 10,000 TEU. The top map on the left shows the deployment of “our sizes of ship”, i.e. ships under 10,000 TEU, and emphasizes their operational flexibility. As you can see they're deployed everywhere. The bottom map shows where the big ships, those larger than 10,000 TEU are deployed, which tends to be on the East-West mainlane trades where the cargo volumes and shore side infrastructure can support them. And it's important to note that roughly 70% of global containerized trade volumes are moved outside these main lanes. In other words in the North-South regional and intermediate trades served by ships like ours. Slide 16, shows supply side trends that tend to be a barometer of health for the sector. The top-chart shows idle capacity, which at the end of June was 0.8%, which is pretty much full employment and explains why the liner operators have had little choice but to speed up their ships to try to generate additional effective capacity to accommodate demand. The bottom chart tells a similar story. Ship recycling or scrapping has been almost non-existent for container ships this year. Why? Because the charter market as George said at the outset has been red-hot. So why scrap a ship if you can squeeze a few more millions of EBITDA out of her. So that's the baseline; full fleet employment, which sets us up nicely for the next slide, slide 17. Here you can see on the left, how the various fleet size segments have grown over…

George Youroukos

Management

Thank you Tom. Yes, thank you Tom. I will very briefly summarize and then we will be happy to take your questions. Through growth and successful rechartering we have built up almost $1.4 billion of contracted revenue, an average contract cover of 2.5 years across our fleet. Importantly, through at least 2022, all of our debt service, CapEx and dividends are fully covered by contracted cash flows, as Ian told you. So while we are excited and very confident about our rechartering exposure and related upside that we have over the next 18 months, we're in no way reliant upon it. Our balance sheet is very strong with €166 million of cash. Our credit ratings have been upgraded to B+ Stable and to B1 Stable. And nearly all of our 2022 debt has already been successfully refinanced, while both our leverage ratios and our cost of debt are trending strongly in the right direction. We believe that our fleet represents a sweet spot in the market, as midsize Post-Panamax and smaller container ships with high reefer capacity are not only doing extremely well during this red-hot market, but look set to remain in high demand for many years to come, as they continue to be significantly underrepresented in the order book despite the critical workhorse role that they play in the market. With the onset of new environmental regulations in 2023, we expect that the effective capacity of these vessel classes may in fact shrink from slower steaming to reduce emissions to comply with the new regulations. As we have said, the freight and charter market remains very hot and our liner customers have also been delivering outstanding results so far this year. Relative to their lows in the second quarter of 2020, market charter rates are up approximately five times and they're up 2.2 times versus the beginning of this year. In terms of our strategic priorities, the most fundamental is the safety and welfare of our personnel at sea and onshore, who have worked hard in challenging conditions throughout the last 18 months to consistently deliver an excellent performance and in so doing helping to keep the global economy moving. We cannot emphasize strongly enough that we appreciate their crucial contribution. In addition, we're strongly focused on delivering further accretive growth thus giving additional support to our recently implemented quarterly dividend. We've grown the fleet by over 50% in the year-to-date adding $662 million of contracted adjusted EBITDA in the process, along with charter renewals on the existing fleet and we believe that there are still a lot of exciting opportunities out there that GSL is uniquely well-positioned to seize. With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Randy Giveans with Jefferies.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Gentlemen, how’s it going?

George Youroukos

Management

Very good, Randy.

Tassos Psaropoulos

Management

Thank you.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

All right. So as you've kind of discussed throughout the press release, through the presentation, you've been pretty aggressive in acquiring tonnage; obviously, most with charters attached. At this point, do you look to continue on that path, or maybe look the other direction in terms of selling some older vessels? And then what are your thoughts on possible dividend increases or share repurchases at these discounted levels?

George Youroukos

Management

I will start -- Randy with the first part and then I'll pass it on to Ian. There are deals still out there for us. We do not go in the mainstream transactions. We have our sources for transactions that are mainly off-market like the ones we have executed. We haven't done any market deals really. We always do deals off the market. And there's a great stream of deals coming in our direction. So the answer to the first part is yes we are looking at accretive growth accretive opportunities to grow the company, but very selectively and very carefully. And I stress the word carefully. We're not out there to do deals just for the sake of doing deals. We only do deals that make a lot of sense and they're very accretive to our balance sheet. Ian, do you want to take the rest?

Ian Webber

Management

Sure. We've only paid one dividend so far. That was twice what we indicated because, we actually took delivery of ships a little earlier than we were expecting and charter rates moved up a little faster than we were expecting. We're just about to pay our second dividend. And actually if you look at our yields Randy and I'm sure you do, we're pretty well up there compared to other folks in the sector. But we take dividend levels under review. But as George has just said, our focus at the moment is deploying capital on accretive growth as we've done so successfully year-to-date and that's our base case. But as I say we keep everything under review. And as the situation changes, if it does then our capital allocation changes as well.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Fair. And then looking at your chartering, average containership rates have increased for what I don't know 60 weeks in a row now. I guess two parts to that. One is just your outlook on the market and what and when do you think those increases will end, what will cause that kind of turning over of rates. And then in the meantime, will you continue to forward-fix those 11 vessels that come available in the next 12 months, or are you wanting to kind of wait until closer to expiry to kind of maybe book some short-term charters or see what the market is at that time?

George Youroukos

Management

Let me try to start with the question and then Tom also can help me with this. What I think is -- what will become the market for the future. We believe that there are fundamentals in this market, apart from the fact that the market can go in some cases crazily up because, you see the short-term features that are in stratospheric numbers. This is because, there's all these problems of COVID-related congestions and so on and so forth. So as long as COVID is out there and I think that the consensus is that COVID is not going to go away anytime soon, in my personal opinion, the full 2022 is going to be not COVID-free for the world, so as long as COVID is out there and these disruptions in the supply chains and everything, we will continue to see these stratospheric rates for the short-term periods, whilst at the same time, the longer periods where you see the 3 to 5-year charters are more based on fundamentals. I mean a liner company doesn't need to fix a ship three to five years unless they see the fundamentals going forward. They could simply offer I don't know $400,000 a day for three months and get on with it. So I believe that the market will be on the more long-term rates more sustainable. And I would say 2022 in my personal opinion will be a good year and possibly even further, but this is purely my personal opinion. But if Tom, you want to talk a bit more about what we feel as a strategy going forward for us?

Tom Lister

Management

Sure, sure. First of all, I agree with everything George has said. If you look at the data, the supply-side fundamentals for the sizes that we're focused on remain extraordinarily supportive, which is great news. But our business model is a conservative one and always has been a conservative one and that served us well during the downs, as well as the ups of this cyclical business. So we're very – all things being equal, the supply-side fundamentals are great. As we've learned, well, as the world has learned, you can be taken by surprise by big macro events over which no one has any control, and no one has any forward visibility. So we continue to believe that fixing long, and where possible forward-fixing long makes sense in terms of the risk/return profile that we're seeking.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Got it. good deal. Hey, that's it for. Keep up the great work. Thank you.

George Youroukos

Management

Thanks, Randy.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Frode Morkedal with Clarksons Securities.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst · Clarksons Securities.

Yes. Thank you. How are you guys? Looking at this EBITDA chart you had, which is very interesting, if you add on the prevailing market rates you're looking at more than $400 million EBITDA next year, which is I guess approximately $300 million net income and more than $8 per share. So that's huge, right? So then the first question is really how quickly can you start chartering out that open capacity next year? So let's say, by end of this year, how much of that open capacity do you expect to have covered so to speak at these prevailing rates?

George Giouroukos

Analyst · Clarksons Securities.

If I may try to answer that is, usually, the shorter we come to the open position the higher the rate we can get. And the more prompt the vessel is the higher the charter you can get. Obviously, this is a balance between risk and reward. So we see the market, and as we see the market, we can predict let's say with safety for ourselves three to six months quite accurately. So we tend to try and fix-forward anything between three to six to nine months. So I would say that, looking at our maturities of the expirations of the charters, you could imagine that all things being equal, and if the market continues to be as it is today without an upward or downward trend, we would be fixing in advance anything between three months to nine months ahead. That would be my genuine response to your question. I wouldn't be able to tell you more specifically. Because if we see the market trending upwards, we'd go for the three months let's say extension. If we see the market flat, we'd go for the six months. If we see the market going down, we might go for the nine months. It's – let's say like that, something to give you a bit of a feel of how we view things.

Ian Webber

Management

And if you look at pages 6 and 7, just eyeballing it, all of the ships that come open between 2021 and 2022, the latest open period and I know this is only just quarter-by-quarter, but the charters the latest that any existing charter runs to is the end of Q2 next year. Most of the ships come open end of this year, or end of Q1 next year. So consistent with what George has said, by year-end and certainly by the time we have the Q4 call there's a good chance that we'll have most of this tonnage wrapped up.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst · Clarksons Securities.

Yeah. That's great news. I guess, the message from the liner companies the past few weeks, is that they expect that this market would stay strong at least to the end of this year. That seems to be the message. So it seems to me that, it's a good chance that you actually can capture a lot of those. That $400 million EBITDA is actually quite in reach. That's my personal opinion. But it also means that your cash flow would be quite substantial, right? Even after the CapEx and maintenance CapEx and the debt repayments that $400 million should translate to probably $200 million cash build. So there's like -- you have a lot of liquidity suddenly. And I guess you already answered that partly in the first question by Randy, but what are you going to do with all this liquidity? I mean you've been very active, I guess, the most active buyers except the liner companies themselves. You've been buying a lot of ships the past 18 months or so at very attractive values, right? And so what do you think about this opportunity at the moment given the quite steep appreciation that we've seen in the ship values just over the past month or so?

Ian Webber

Management

Well, it's difficult to say any more than we've already said. We still believe that there are genuine opportunities to invest in growth on an accretive basis. We've said that we want to focus on existing ships. We think that's the right thing to do whilst there's so much uncertainty about propulsion technology. And of course we've actually got to earn this cash. I mean it does look pretty solid, but nevertheless we've got to earn it. It's got to hit our bank account and it accumulates over time. It's not as if we get all $200 million if that's the right number on the 1st of January. The cash position builds over time and we would expect to invest over time. Now come the day if we're unable to invest as I implied before we would look at modifying our capital allocation. But we're also kind of mindful of the regulatory changes that are coming up in 2023 with the EEIX and all the rest of it. We're mindful of the massive uncertainties around COVID still. We're mindful of the huge uncertainties around decarbonization. And to ensure flexibility for us and survivability and be legacy problem-free over the next few years maybe sitting on cash is not such a bad thing.

George Youroukos

Management

If I may add something very simple and very obvious. We all think I'm sure and you guys are thinking what is it going to look like in 2023? In 2022 we all feel more or less happy about. What is going to look 2023? How is going to look 2024? And then there are three scenarios I guess for everybody. Scenario one is going to be equal to today. So we're going to be making money hand over fist. Easy to solve this problem. We're obviously going to have to increase our dividend if the market goes sky high and continues to be sky high. We're not going to grow the company to 1,000 ships. Scenario two is the market is a medium market. In that case we keep on making money. We're not making the crazy money we're making today, but we're making very good money. And then obviously investments are more easy to make. So we can combine the two where we can continue investing and probably look at also sharing dividends with the shareholders. Then you have the third scenario where the market is low. And in that scenario what we want to be we are going to be in a very strong position very little debt. We have very, very strong debt maturities. We're paying down debt very fast. So we're not worried about this scenario at all. And we want to be in this scenario cash-rich so that we can do what we normally know well to do which is buy cheap vessels which later become cash cows like the six we have today in our fleet. This is what we've been doing over the past years very successfully. Now in all three scenarios mind you we always do sale-and-leaseback transactions which are not really market-related because these deals carry no market risk as we're buying an asset together with a charter. So it's very calculated the transaction and we don't usually do it on ships that have high residual value risk at the end of the fixed charter period. So we always have the ability to deploy capital accretively regardless of whether the market is high or low on a sale and leaseback. And we deploy a lot of money on a low market or a market we believe is going to rise in the foreseeable future.

Frode Morkedal

Analyst · Clarksons Securities.

Make sense. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Liam Burke with B. Riley.

Liam Burke

Analyst · B. Riley.

Thank you. How is everybody today?

Ian Webber

Management

Super duper.

Liam Burke

Analyst · B. Riley.

It's kind of tough to ask any questions, but George in the vessel classes that you see the opportunities, do you have any preference within your fleet any particular vessel class that you find more attractive than others now?

George Youroukos

Management

Well we always felt in the past years that the sweet spot is on vessels that offer low-slot-costs and those ships have been the Post-Panamaxes. That was our first choice and that's where our core business is. We heard various arguments over the years -- and also we like of course the let's call it smaller feeder vessels, but with special characteristics the good ones. We heard arguments over the years that none of those were being built. So maybe we were wrong. And they were not being built because they were not needed. But we were very focused on our analysis and we don't go by the what if scenarios. We only focus on what we know and what we know best is container shipping. We load ships every day. We know what the cargoes are. We know what the requirements are. We do not rely on what the general analysis comes in. We know more than that from the business. So we stuck to our model which now proved the dividends where the ships we have are the ones that are in the highest demand and they make a killing. So going forward we will continue to focus on these ships as we believe that these are the ships that will be the workhorses. And that is proven now. Ideally, we would love to have more Post-Panamaxes high reefer containers like we're buying or specialized smaller ships. It very much depends on what the actual deal will be. We look at each transaction on its own merits. But if it was in an ideal word and you asked me what ships I want to buy at the right price yes obviously Post-Panamaxes is the immediate answer.

Liam Burke

Analyst · B. Riley.

And I know that you on your acquisitions are very niche-oriented in terms of how you buy. Are you seeing any competition for assets at all as you start evaluating your opportunities?

George Youroukos

Management

Well, the main competitors in this market for prune’s vessels for ships that are going to be charter-free in the next three to six months are the liner companies. We are the third largest buyer after the first and second being liner companies in the market. So we have seen the competition coming from liner companies. But liner companies are not competing on sale-and-leaseback transactions as you can imagine because it's not of their interest. And they're not competing on ships which have cover of charter extending more than nine months because they want the ship right now to deploy and make money for their trade. We have a different approach. Obviously we make money from chartering the ship forward. That's how we manage to navigate through the competition of liner companies. Apart from the liner companies the competition from fellow ship owners it's not as strong as the liner companies.

Liam Burke

Analyst · B. Riley.

Great. Thank you, George.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from J. Mintzmyer with Value Investor's Edge.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Hi good morning gentlemen. Congrats on a excellent quarter. So lots of good questions this morning. I won't belabor this too much. Just a niche question here. You disposed of the La Tour. You sold it for almost $17 million. I don't want to read too much into that but you have a sister ship the Manet that comes up Q4 that you haven't chartered yet. And you also have two very similar vessels also 2002-built older ships same size that also come up Q4. Are those three ships, potentially on the sales block, or do you plan on rechartering those?

George Youroukos

Management

Ian, do you want to explain why we sold the La Tour?

Ian Webber

Management

Sure. I mean the short answer to your question J. is we keep everything under review all of the time. We made a decision to monetize La Tour a while ago to help finance the purchase of newer ships. I mean La Tour is an old lady. And we sold her and renewed the fleet brought down the average age. We're not adverse to doing that on a sort of tactical basis. But strategically, have we made the decision to deliberately exit our older tonnage? No, we haven't. So it's very much on a case-by-case basis. And furthermore La Tour had a charter that was coming open and the market wasn't as hot as it is now et cetera et cetera. So very dynamic circumstances.

Tom Lister

Management

And if I can add to that J. This is Tom. We wanted to make the acquisition of the high reefer ships without issuing any additional dilutive equity. So we had to look at a financing mix that made sense. So I've been sort of frantically scribbling down these numbers as Ian, has been talking but if you look at the Julie, which is a sister to the La Tour we fixed her at a rate of roughly $20,000 a day for two years or so. So back when we were looking at this transaction, we were assuming roughly a $20,000-a-day rate on the La Tour. If you remove 5% for commissions assume roughly $6,500 OpEx that results in an annualized EBITDA of about $4.6 million. Now if you divide the purchase price of $16.75 million by $4.6 million you get a price-to-EBITDA multiple of 3.6 times. So that's pretty much identical to the multiple for the four high reefer box [ph] ships with the difference being as Ian has said they're half the age of the Manet. They're much higher specification than the Manet. They have a better future simply because they're younger ships and higher specification than the Manet. And they can support as a result higher leverage and generate higher returns than the Manet. So that was really our thinking when deciding whether or not to selectively sell one of our assets to remonetize her in the investment of, what we saw as even better assets generating higher returns. I hope that's helpful.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Yes it's very helpful. Thank a lot. I guess the reason I was looking at those is obviously, the values have went up. And you mentioned it was $20,000 a day for two years when you sold the vessel but now you can get $25,000 or $30,000 for three or four years right? So the market is different now. I realize you sold those before. But at the same time you could also sell those vessels now, I would imagine for maybe $25 million or $30 million apiece. So if you sold those three vessels that are coming up for $75 million $80 million in block proceeds and you relevered that you could do another big block deal. I guess, that's what I'm getting at is, saying can you rinse-wash-repeat? Is there room for more deals like that?

Ian Webber

Management

Yes. Possibly selectively but we would look at it case by case.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Definitely. Last question for you. The shares have improved nicely year-over-year but over the past few months you've lagged the markets a lot. Price to NAV it's always debatable depending on how much of a charter discount you put in there. But I have you guys somewhere between 40% and 55% 60% price to NAV. So ,it's sizable discount. I know you care about liquidity. It's clear on Slide -- in your appendix there you mention the liquidity has improved. However, you also have Kelso a large block there. You also have 71% public float, which is great. Is there room for some sort of a repurchase or a tender offer either to take out Kelso, take out that overhead or to simply arbitrage your share price? Because there's a huge discount going on here.

Ian Webber

Management

Yes there is. We kind of agree with you. However, I go back to what I was saying earlier J. about using cash for growth and that is our preference and that is what we hear from investors. Not all investors but the majority who express an opinion support us continuing to grow the business for long-term value creation. Now as I've said, should the growth opportunities not be apparent, then we will revise our capital allocation strategy, policy, call it what you will. And we review it comprehensively from time to time and it's always open to us to review at every Board meeting which happen quarterly.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Certainly. Thank you, gentlemen. Have a great day and keep up the good work.

Tassos Psaropoulos

Management

Thank you

Ian Webber

Management

Thanks J.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we have a question from the line of Joe Kaplan with Whitefort Capital.

Joe Kaplan

Analyst

Yes. Hi, gentlemen. Congratulations on the execution of several accretive vessel acquisitions. And thank you in particular for the additional disclosures; in particular the illustrative earnings on page eight of the presentation for the EBITDA calculator, including through 2023 on page 21 of the presentation which shows the pro forma free cash generation of the fleet, based on the July 2021 long-term three to five -year recharter rates. I have a couple of questions and then a couple of comments. The questions are; the July 2021 charter rates listed on the right column of page 21 of the presentation. As you are aware the Harpex Index is up 37%, even in the month of July alone. And so, do these rates reflect the beginning of July, the end of July or the middle of July, relative to the most recent index rates that we have?

Tom Lister

Management

I would day -- hi, Joe. This is Tom. I would say that they are average rates for July.

Joe Kaplan

Analyst

Okay. So if we were to mark that to market to the current spot rates and understanding that you don't necessarily get those, but given that the majority of your open charters will come off of charter in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, it would seem that there's potentially even some room above the illustrative earnings scenario of $424 million in EBITDA for 2022 on page eight. Is that fair just from a mathematical modeling perspective?

Tom Lister

Management

Potentially. However, I would -- sorry, but I was going to say, potentially, Joe, but one thing I would caution you is that, and I think Ian mentioned this in the prepared remarks, negotiations on new charters take time. So the fact that you have a charter that is announced today, for example, doesn't necessarily mean it's going to have been fixed on rates available in the market today. Inevitably, there's going to be, let's call, it a four to six-week lag between when heads of terms are agreed and when the charters are actually documented and announced. So I would just encourage you to keep that in mind as well, particularly in a rising market.

Joe Kaplan

Analyst

My second question, in terms of the pro forma weighted-average fleet age based on the new vessel acquisitions, we calculate that to be approximately 15 years on a weighted-average basis. Is that ballpark correct?

Tom Lister

Management

Good question. I had 13.5 years in mind. I may be mistaken. To put this in context, it might be quite useful to look at slide 28 of the presentation. So if you go to the appendix on slide 28, you can see how the fleet age profile of the global fleet is composed by size segment and there are some useful sort of reference points in there. And you can see that by and large the midsize and smaller segments, because they have been underinvested over the course of the last few years, they tend to be materially older. So whenever you sort of assess the age of our fleet, it's important that you assess it against the age of the corresponding peer group. And hopefully, the data on slide 28 is helpful in that regard.

George Youroukos

Management

Understand. And then just a couple of comments going back to some of the earlier questions on the call regarding capital allocation. When we run the spot recharter assumptions through the EBITDA calculator on page 21 for 2022 and 2023 we get somewhere between $425 million and $450 million of EBITDA for 2022. And just the pull-through of those full year recharters into 2023 mathematically gets you in excess of $500 million for 2023. On a pro forma TEV of the company at the current stock price of $18 implies approximately $1.7 billion. That implies that effectively you would earn the entire enterprise value of the company in free cash flow over a little more than three years. As George alluded, your weighted-average contract cover today is 2.5 years and you're rechartering your new ships for three to five years out. So that implies effectively ascribing zero value to the residual life of the fleet and these are 25-year useful life assets and the average life is something like as you said between 13.5 to 15 years. So that implies effectively an extra 10-plus years that is not being imputed into the valuation at all. And so when we look at it just in terms of back-of-the-envelope range of valuations on a forward recharter basis even an extremely punitive scenario of a liquidation scenario and I'm not saying that that's anywhere where the company is going given the growth and earnings trajectory, but if you just assumed that you just ran off the charters through 2022 and were to just scrap the ships based on the scrap values of $500 plus per lightweight ton that you have on page 28 that in itself discounted back at 10% gets you to the current stock price of $18 per share approximately. And…

Joe Kaplan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

All right. And this concludes our Q&A session for today. I would like to turn the call back to Ian Webber for closing remarks.

Ian Webber

Management

Thanks everybody. Thank you so much for your engagement in Q&A and for comments. We look forward to giving a further update on the business for Q3 which will be in about three months' time. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And with that, we conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.