Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you. Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Great Southern Bancorp Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Christina Maldonado. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Great Southern Bancorp's third quarter 2026 earnings call. Today, we will be discussing the company's results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, forward-looking statements may be made regarding the company's future events and financial performance. These statements are subject to various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected. For a list of these factors, please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure in the earnings release and other public filings. Joining me today are President and CEO Joe Turner and Chief Financial Officer Rex Copeland. I'll turn the call over to Joe.

Okay, thanks, Christina, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. We appreciate you being with us today. Our third quarter results demonstrate the durability of our core banking franchise and the consistency of our operating model. During the quarter, we remained focused on our core disciplines, prioritizing prudent balance sheet management, maintaining strict credit standards, and controlling non-interest expense. In the third quarter of 2026, we reported net income of $14 million, or $1.27 per common share. The results this quarter were impacted by a non-cash hedge accounting adjustment, which Rex will discuss further. Excluding this hedge accounting adjustment, our operating net income was $16.5 million, or $1.50 per diluted common share. Net interest income in the third quarter remained solid at $50.3 million, down slightly from the $50.8 million in the year-ago quarter. This comparison reflects the absence in 2026 of the approximately $2 million of quarterly interest income from a previously terminated swap that concluded in October 2025. Despite this headwind, disciplined asset management and active pricing on deposits and earning assets allowed for the expansion of our margin to 3.75% from 3.72% in the third quarter of 2025. During the quarter, we also took advantage of higher market yields, adding approximately $400 million of fixed-rate agency mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. These purchases were funded primarily through variable-rate FHLB borrowings, helping mitigate downside risk from potential future interest rate reductions. While the narrower spread on this balance sheet trade will modestly reduce our overall net interest margin percentage going forward, it is accretive to our net interest income. Net interest income generation remains an ongoing priority, but credit and pricing discipline will continue to govern our approach to growing long-term stockholder value. Turning to our loan portfolio, period end balances continued to be heavily influenced by borrower repayments and refinancing activity. Elevated payoff activity in commercial real estate and multifamily loans led to a $59.3 million decline in net loans compared to June 30, 2026. Compared to December 31, 2025, net loan balances decreased $108.4 million to $4.25 billion. Despite these payoffs, our broader lending pipeline remains robust with total commitments expanding to $1.2 billion at September 30, including $641 million of unfunded commitments related to closed construction loans. On the funding side, total deposits decreased $232.1 million during the quarter, primarily reflecting the intentional runoff of $211.8 million in brokered deposits. Our core customer relationships remain strong, with non-interest-bearing checking expanding by $29.3 million year to date. As loan balances have moderated, we intentionally allowed higher cost brokered deposits to run off without replacement, utilizing lower cost FHLB borrowings instead, allowing for reduced interest expense and overall balance sheet flexibility. From a credit quality standpoint, our metrics remain excellent. Total non-performing assets at the end of the third quarter represented 0.18% of total assets, compared to 0.17% at June 30, and non-performing loans were 0.03% of total loans. Net charge-offs were $397,000 for the quarter, and we did not record a provision for credit losses on our outstanding portfolio. The provision you saw in our income statement related to our unfunded commitments. Other real estate owned increased $20.4 million, primarily reflecting the reclassification of $11.1 million in closed banking center properties held for sale following our branch consolidations rather than credit related foreclosures. For our foreclosed properties, independent appraisals continue to support our carrying values, and we do not anticipate any aggregate loss upon their ultimate disposition. Similarly, we do not expect an aggregate loss on the disposition of our former banking centers facilities either at this time. Expense discipline remains a priority for our bank with non-interest expense decreasing to $36.3 million compared to the $38.2 million in the second quarter of 2026. The second quarter expense amount was more than normal due to the charge for the banking center closures. As of October 1, we completed the consolidation of the 9 banking centers and the elimination of 66 positions across various divisions in our company. As affected employees remained in their roles through the end of the third quarter, the associated cost savings will begin to be realized in the fourth quarter. Ultimately, we believe this will allow for better alignment with our customers' banking preferences along with our continued pursuit of operational efficiencies as technology and delivery channels evolve. As we move through the remainder of 2026, we remain focused on protecting asset quality, executing thoughtful operational improvements, and consistently building long-term value for our stockholders. The lending and funding environments remain competitive, but we are navigating this landscape from a position of strength. With that, I will turn the call over to Rex for a more detailed discussion of the financials.

All right, thank you, Joe, and good afternoon, everyone. I will provide a little more detail on our third quarter 2026 financial performance and how it compares to both prior year quarter and the linked second quarter. As we mentioned, for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, we reported preliminary net income of $14.0 million, or $1.27 per diluted common share, compared to $17.8 million, or $1.56 per diluted common share, in the third quarter of 2025, and $15.8 million, or $1.43 per diluted common share, in the linked second quarter of 2026. Excluding the non-cash hedge accounting adjustment, non-GAAP net income was $16.5 million, or $1.50 per diluted common share. During the third quarter of 2026, the company identified historical periods in which variable rate loan balances, meeting the original cash flow hedge designation criteria, were insufficient to support the full designated notional amount of its interest rate swaps. Accordingly, portions of the swaps were not eligible to receive hedge accounting during those periods. Consequently, historical fair value changes and settlements previously recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income were reclassified to earnings. These historical adjustments resulted in a one-time non-cash charge to the income statement of approximately $3.5 million pre-tax, comprised of a $4.1 million reduction in non-interest income and a $504,000 increase in interest income. Including a benefit to interest income described below, the net pre-tax impact of $3.3 million, approximately $2.5 million after-tax, or $0.23 per diluted share, had zero impact on total stockholders' equity or cash balances in the third quarter of 2026. And subsequent to the $3.5 million earnings reclassification that we just talked about, the company adopted ASU 2025-09, allowing for the redesignation of its two existing interest rate swaps. This redesignation resulted in an offsetting increase in interest income of $279,000 in the third quarter of 2026. An approximately $170,000 per month increase in interest income will be realized through April 2028. Consequently, the $3.5 million charge to income in the third quarter of 2026 will be entirely recovered through interest income over the remaining life of the redesignated interest rate swaps. Net interest income for the quarter totaled $50.3 million compared to $50.8 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $49.5 million in the second quarter of 2026. Compared to the prior year quarter, net interest income declined by $504,000, driven primarily by the absence in 2026 of approximately $2 million of quarterly interest income from a previously terminated swap that concluded in October 2025. Additionally, lower average loan balances and lower market interest rates, which impacted yields on variable rate loans, were mostly offset by lower interest expense on deposits, disciplined funding cost management, and additional interest income from investment securities purchased during the quarter. As Joe mentioned, we purchased approximately $400 million of fixed-rate agency mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations in the third quarter. These securities have an expected effective duration of approximately 5 to 6 years with final maturities primarily in 2032 and 2033 for about $150 million of these securities and in 2028 for about $100 million of these securities. These securities have an expected weighted average yield between 4.80% and 5%. While this leverage trade generates positive net interest income, the spread is narrower than our core earning assets and is expected to modestly reduce our overall reported net interest margin percentage in future quarters, while providing meaningful downside protection should market interest rates decline significantly. Compared to the linked second quarter of 2026, net interest income increased $776,000. A portion of this increase was aided by one additional calendar day in the third quarter and investment portfolio additions alongside the initial interest income accretion recognized from our redesignated interest rate swaps. Net interest margin was 3.75% for the third quarter compared to 3.72% in the prior year quarter and 3.76% in the second quarter of 2026. Non-interest income for the quarter was $3.4 million compared to $7.1 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $7.4 million in the second quarter of 2026. The year-over-year decrease was driven by the $4.1 million hedge accounting adjustment discussed previously. Partially offsetting this was a $240,000 increase in late charges and fees on loans totaling $429,000, primarily due to $282,000 in prepayment penalties collected on 2 commercial loans that paid off during the quarter. Other income also included $116,000 in origination fees for a back-to-back interest rate swap on a new commercial real estate loan. Commission income totaled $486,000 in the 2026 third quarter, reflecting continued customer demand for fixed annuity products. Total non-interest expense was $36.3 million compared to $36.1 million in the third quarter of 2025 and down $1.9 million from $38.2 million in the second quarter of 2026. That sequential decrease reflects the non-recurrence of the $2.1 million charge in branch consolidation and severance recorded in the second quarter of 2026. Salaries and employee benefits decreased $565,000 compared to the prior year quarter to $19.6 million, reflecting lower incentive accruals, staffing adjustments in some lending areas, and lower expected severance payouts. Net occupancy and equipment expense increased $428,000 compared to the prior year quarter to $9.3 million, primarily due to a $434,000 increase in computer licensing and core support expenses as our planned investments in core systems and data security continue to cycle online. As Joe noted earlier, our consolidation of 9 banking centers and the elimination of other positions across the company were completed by October 1st. The banking center consolidations and workforce reductions are expected to result in approximately $4.4 million to $4.8 million in non-interest expense savings beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026. These savings are expected to be partially offset by some customer deposit attrition in the affected locations over time, which will likely be replaced by higher-cost alternative funding sources. These actions combined are expected to result in approximately $2.3 million to $2.7 million in annual pre-tax income improvement beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. Our efficiency ratio for the quarter was 67.57%, and normalized to 63.69% when excluding the hedge accounting adjustment. For income taxes, the company's effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2026 was approximately 16.3% compared to 19.7% in the same period in 2025. Through the first 9 months of 2026, the effective tax rate was 16.9% compared to 19.4% in the prior year period. The lower effective tax rate in the third quarter was driven by our usual tax credits and higher allowable tax deductions resulting from employee stock option exercises. Going forward, we continue to expect our combined federal and state effective tax rate to range generally from 18% to 19.5% in future periods. Moving on to the balance sheet, total assets ended the quarter at approximately $5.82 billion, up from $5.52 billion at June 30, primarily reflecting the $400 million investment portfolio increase. Gross loans receivable stood at $4.32 billion. Total net loans, excluding mortgage loans held for sale, were $4.25 billion, down $59.3 million sequentially, and down $108.4 million from December 31, 2025. Over the first 9 months of the year, net loans decreased by 2.5%, driven by repayments in commercial real estate, which was down $95.8 million net, and multifamily, which was down $105.6 million net, partially offset by an $83 million expansion in construction balances. As Joe highlighted, repayments on our loan portfolio are difficult to predict and may continue to drive volatility in our loan balances in future quarters. However, our origination activity remains healthy as our pipeline of unfunded loan commitments expanded to $1.20 billion, led by $640.8 million in unfunded construction commitments on loans which are already closed. On the funding side, total deposits ended the quarter at approximately $4.07 billion, down $232.1 million from June 30, 2026. Given the pricing and term advantage of FHLB borrowings, we intentionally allowed higher-cost brokered balances to mature without replacement. These brokered maturities constituted $211.8 million of the $232.1 million deposit reduction in the third quarter. Excluding this planned runoff, non-brokered deposits remained relatively stable during the quarter. Our deposit mix consisted of $2.22 billion in interest-bearing checking, $870.8 million in non-interest-bearing checking, $618.6 million in time deposits, and $363.8 million in brokered deposits at September 30. Uninsured deposits, excluding our internal deposit balances, are estimated at $686.2 million, or 16.9% of total deposits. At September 30, 2026, secured borrowing line availability at the Federal Home Loan Bank and Federal Reserve Bank was $1.10 billion and $370.9 million, respectively, alongside cash and cash equivalents of $161.7 million. From asset quality perspective, overall performance remained strong. Non-performing assets and potential problem loans combined totaled $11.9 million. Non-performing assets were $10.5 million, or 0.18% of total assets, compared to $9.4 million, or 0.17% of assets, at June 30, 2026, and $8.1 million, or 0.15% of total assets, at December 31, 2025. Non-performing loans were $1.19 million, or 0.03% of total loans, while potential problem loans closed the quarter at $1.43 million. Net charge-offs were $397,000 in the third quarter of 2026, or an annualized rate of 0.04% of average loans. During both the 3 and 9 months ended September 30, 2026, we did not record a provision expense on our outstanding loan portfolio, but recognized a provision for unfunded commitments of $674,000 in the third quarter of 2026 due to growth in the commitment pipeline. The bank's allowance for credit losses was stable at 1.47% of total loans. Overall, our core credit metrics continue to reflect our longstanding focus on disciplined risk management and a portfolio that is performing well. Other real estate owned increased $14.4 million from December 31, 2025 to $20.4 million at September 30. As Joe highlighted, $11.1 million of this increase represented the nine closed retail banking centers held for sale now following our branch consolidations. Total foreclosed properties stood at $9.3 million, consisting primarily of an office building at $7.0 million, where we capitalized $479,000 in safety and fire suppression upgrades in the quarter, and a multifamily property at $2.3 million, where we capitalized $490,000 in property improvements. Independent appraisals continue to support these carrying values on both assets. Our capital position remained a key strength. Total stockholders' equity at September 30, 2026 was $612.5 million, representing 10.5% of total assets and a book value of $56.97 per common share, compared to $636.1 million, or $55.85 per common share, at December 31, 2025. The decline in stockholders' equity was primarily a function of higher market interest rates, resulting in a $33.2 million increase in the unrealized losses captured in our AOCI portion of equity. Outside of the AOCI impact, capital in the 9-month period was supported by $47.3 million of net income and $13.8 million from stock issued for option exercises, partially offset by $14.0 million in dividends declared on common stock and $37.5 million in common stock buybacks. Throughout the first 9 months of the year, we have repurchased 542,000 shares (sic) [542,500 shares] of common stock at an average price of $68.67. Approximately 145,000 shares remained available under our current stock repurchase authorization at quarter end, and this month our board approved a new 1 million share repurchase authorization to succeed the existing program once completed. Our board of directors also declared our regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per common share in September. Overall, our third quarter results reflect solid execution throughout our business. Our net interest margin remains resilient, our core deposit mix remains stable, and our asset quality trends remain solid. Our capital benchmarks sit at strong levels, and we are well positioned for continued operational success. That concludes my remarks, and now we are ready to take questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of John Rodis of Brean Capital. Your line is now open.

Rex, the investment in the securities portfolio, so you bought, I think you said roughly $400 million, and you said average yield around 4.9%, give or take, in the rate.

It'll vary slightly, but 4.8% to 5% is what it should. So 4.9% is sort of an average in there, yes.

And so what was the net spread roughly? So what were you paying initially in the quarter? And what was the timing? When did you buy them in the quarter? Did you get a full quarter's impact? It does not look like it based on the average balances.

So we bought a little bit of it in July, more in August, and some more in September. So, I say -- I think the biggest chunk of it was probably in August, John, but we did some in July and September as well. And so I would say at the time we started buying, of course, the Fed hadn't raised rates. So just overnight borrowing costs at the Home Loan Bank were probably a little less than 3.90%, 3.95% something like that maybe.

Okay. So your net spread on this with the higher rates, I mean, it's a 100 basis points or less, give or take, correct?

Right. And now that, I mean, the borrowing cost at the Home Loan Bank is, give or take, you know, 4.25% now. So, yes, that is sort of like the spread would be the difference between that and the yield.

Yes, so obviously it's additive to net interest income but dilutive to the margin. Any plans to purchase any more securities?

Not really at this time, I do not think so. You know, plans can change, but we think we got what we wanted to do there.

Okay. So, and then I just want to make sure I am looking at it right as far as the, I guess, puts and takes with the net interest income dollars and then the hedging treatment. So, it looks like all things equal, you had a one-time benefit of the $500,000 roughly and then a recurring benefit, I guess, into 2028. This quarter was roughly $300,000, and then going forward, you will pick up another $200,000 a quarter. Am I thinking about that right?

Yes. It will be more than that. The first quarter, yes, I think you are right. We had an initial call it $500,000 added to interest income, and then we had another $279,000 of this accretion income that we took in. And then it should be about another roughly $170,000 a month of accretion income that would go back into interest income to recapture that $3.5 million that was the one-time hit to non-interest income in this quarter.

Yes, so I will just try asking this, but any, I mean, as far as the margin goes, I mean, it seems like directionally, it is probably down a little bit, especially with the securities, but do you think like 3.65% to 3.70% range is reasonable? Or?

Well, that is probably reasonable. I mean, so yes, we will see -- we would see a decrease in the margin itself for the securities purchase, which would be fairly modest, but there would be some decrease there. And then partially offsetting that, or maybe offsetting a fair amount, is going to be this accretion income basically for the next six quarters is when that accretion income is going to come back in, John.

Yes, but I am just trying to put it all together. It seems like the margin maybe in that range seems reasonable.

Yes. I think so.

Okay. Okay. Joe, maybe a question for you just, loan portfolio continue to trend down. Any thoughts on what we see over the next quarter or 2?

You know, I mean, same comment we always make, John. It's really difficult to predict, based on, a lot of it is based on just payoffs. I mean, it's possible that with rates being up a little bit, payoff activity could be down, which would be a bullish thing for loan growth. But, it's just -- the reason we don't give guidance is we just don't feel like, we have a lot of real good clear information. I mean we have some visibility, but it's probably a whole lot more limited than what you guys think. So, I mean, yes, I could see how higher interest rates could slow down refinancing activity, and we could -- have loans on our books longer, which would be positive. But it is just, kind of, time will tell.

Yes, yes. As far as the new buybacks, so you authorized another 1 million shares, all things equal, I assume you sort of continue to do what you have been doing, maybe buying back 100,000 shares a quarter?

Yes, I mean, we are kind of in and out from time to time. Obviously, you can see from our activity that we do think it's a positive thing for our shareholders at these levels, at these price levels. So I don't see anything right now that would change our opinion about that.

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Damon DelMonte of KBW.

Joe, just a question on the loans and the payoffs. I mean, obviously, payoffs and refinancings are happening all over the industry. But I was just wondering, is there anything different with your approach of lending which allows you or which results in you guys having more payoffs than origination activity? Like, are these more like transactional accounts where you don't have an established relationship with the borrower where you can maybe work with them and, offer them a more, you know, a competitive rate that would keep them with you guys? I am just looking for any, any color on that.

No, I mean, like usually when we see a payoff, Damon, it's coming on terms that are from the borrower's perspective, just, terms that we wouldn't be interested in. I mean, usually, I mean, we are involved in the construction part of the project. And so, just as an example, maybe a $30 million apartment project, we are doing, two-thirds of the cost, $20 million with a loan. And when they go to refinance that, they are looking at borrowing substantially more than what we have loaned and either significantly limiting or maybe removing their guarantees and lessening the rate a lot. So it's just not a structure that we would be interested in.

And other things are just projects get completed and the sponsor sells the project.

Yeah, right. Yes, there is both, refinancing into a permanent mortgage and sales.

Got you, okay. And are these payoffs and refinancing happening anywhere in particular in your footprint? Is it like a different, is it down like Texas or more like in the northern Midwest or anything?

No, not really. I mean, I think they happen all over.

Okay. Okay. And then I guess my next question on expenses with the cost saves kind of coming in here in the fourth quarter, can we assume that this quarter's level will go down because of those savings or is there some, already preplanned growth in expenses that would kind of neutralize the impact?

I do not think there is really -- I mean, I think there could be some increases, but they won't be of the magnitude or it shouldn't be of the magnitude of what we are talking about dropping as far as the costs go. We will still have a little bit of the cost -- I mean, there will be a little bit of the cost still probably in there in October, but most of the quarter will be free of those costs and charges. So I think we should see lower expenses that we outlined in the fourth quarter, generally speaking. Could be a little bit of offset to it, but not.

Yes, we have talked a bit on these calls, Damon, about we are in the process of upgrading our system technology platform primarily with Jack Henry, and as more of those products roll out, and I think we're substantially through that, but there may be, there could be another one or two of those roll out, and that could be some additional expense. I don't have off the top of my head what that would be, but that would be the only caveat I would give.

Thank you. I am showing no further questions at this time. I will now turn it back to Joe for closing remarks.

All right. I appreciate everybody being with us, and we'll look forward to talking to you again after the first of the year. Thank you.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.