Jason E. Child
Analyst · Ross Sandler from Deutsche Bank
So on the first question, in particular, the way I would about cash flow is, in particular, the -- while the margin percentages are different because of revenue recognition, if you actually were to say both businesses were booked on a growth basis, the long-term operating margin, that we talked about and have previously talked about, for the third-party business is about 25% to 30%. And if you take it way, it's somewhere between a revenue margin of 30% to 40%. If you were to convert that to a gross basis, so using gross billings or having 100% revenue margin, that will basically take the operating margin to a 10% to 12% range. And I mentioned on -- in the scripted portion that a long-term margin percentage that we expect for the Goods business is to be in the high-single digit percentage, so actually not far away from the 10% to 12% that you would see in the local business or the third-party business if you were recording it with the same basis. So as you think about free cash flow, kind of, yield as a percentage of gross billings, it should be actually quite similar, okay? And so, the working capital characteristics are actually pretty similar. The AP days are similar. AR days are very similar. Inventory, we are -- we're not warehousing and storing inventory, we're generally buying it at very short lead times before selling it. So you should think of very similar working capital. So as a result, the cash flow yields should be similar for both businesses. In terms of the way things could look next year, the reason you see in the decreasing cash flow quarter-over-quarter, the most significant aspect is, first, the slowdown of international. If we actually had international just have flat growth, we would have $40 million more of free cash flow. But then also -- and based on the guidance we gave, we think we're going to -- yes, we are going to see some strength there that should slow down that cash -- slowdown on the cash flow impact. But then also, the other piece is taxes. Taxes have -- because we have not implemented our international tax headquarters yet, that's something we expect to be doing in the next quarter or 2. That is something that will start to lower our cash tax payments over the next year or 2. And so, I -- and so, the cash flow could be lumpy, but I wouldn't expect as a yield, as a percentage of gross billings, I wouldn't expect big differences -- even if there is a movement to -- more movement to the direct business.