Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Green Plains First Quarter 2012 Financial Results Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks, I will turn the call over to Jim Stark. Please go ahead.
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)
Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 26, 2012
$16.65
+1.15%
Same-Day
+3.91%
1 Week
-1.39%
1 Month
-10.23%
vs S&P
-5.62%
Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Green Plains First Quarter 2012 Financial Results Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks, I will turn the call over to Jim Stark. Please go ahead.
Jim Stark
Management
Thanks, Matt. Welcome to our first quarter 2012 earnings conference call. On the call this morning are Todd Becker, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jerry Peters our Chief Financial Officer; Jeff Briggs our Chief Operating Officer; and Steve Bleyl, who is our Executive Vice President of Ethanol Marketing are here on the call today to discuss our first quarter financial results and recent development for Green Plains. There is a slide presentation where you to follow along with as we go through our comments today. You can find this presentation on our website at www.gpreinc.com on the Investor page under the Events and Presentations link. Our comments today will contain forward-looking statements, which are any statements made that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of Green Plains’ management team, and there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Because forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, Green Plains’ actual result could differ materially from management’s expectations. Please refer to page two of the website presentation and our 10-K and other periodic SEC filing for information about factors that could cause different outcomes. The information presented today is time sensitive and is accurate only at this time. If any portion of this presentation is rebroadcast, retransmitted or redistributed at a later date, Green Plains will not be reviewing or updating this material. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Todd Becker.
Todd Becker
Management
Thanks, Jim. And thanks for taking the time to join our call this morning. We issued earnings release yesterday after the market closed. We hope you all have had a chance to read it as to discuss our results this morning. Our revenues in the first quarter of 2012, were $775 million, we reported a net loss of $12.7 million or $0.39 a share, after 3 profitable years of operation one negative quarter does not change our long term outlook or view for the company’s prospects. We have one time charge of approximately $2.4 million after tax or $0.08 per share related to a legal settlement for litigation that was fully described in past filings. We felt it was in the best interest of our shareholders as the cause of a long protracted legal battle could have easily outweigh the settlement reached, which by the way was less than $0.10 on the dollar of the original claim, this charge was recorded in the ethanol production segment. The first quarter 2012 did prove to be challenging for the company following a period of peak ethanol margins in the fourth quarter of last year, margins compressed significantly and remained compressed throughout the quarter. As we indicated on year end conference call with you we did slowdown our ethanol production during the quarter. We produced a 176 million gallons, which was about 5% below our plants full capacity. We sold a $170 million gallons in the quarter and held a remainder as the market provided an opportunity to hold inventory and earn a return on storage. Since the end of this quarter those returns have narrowed and we’ve begun to liquidate these higher inventory levels. Our plant has 16 million gallons or 380,000 of onsite storage and we took advantage of that holding…
Jerry Peters
Management
Thank you, Todd. First I’ll provide a quick review of the operating results and then spend a few minutes on our liquidity positions and our balance sheet. Our consolidated revenues for the first quarter were $775 million down 4.5% compared to the first quarter of 2011. Total ethanol market has dropped by 26.1 million gallons or about 9.4%, and average realized ethanol prices dropped slightly as well between the periods. Lower ethanol margins, affected volumes we marketed for both third-party and company owned ethanol plants. Revenues were higher for both of our corn oil production segment and our Agribusiness segment. Corn oil production contributed $13.5 million in revenues on 33.5 million pounds of production compared to $4.3 million in revenues and 10.1 million pounds respectively. We continue to see good values for our corn oil in the marketplace. Consolidated cost of goods sold decreased by 8.1 million mainly due to the 9.4% decrease in the ethanol volumes sold. This decrease is net of $23.7 million – of a $23.7 million increase in our all ethanol production segment COGS. We consumed 1.5 million bushels more corn in the ethanol production to produce almost 4.7 million gallons more ethanol. In terms of ethanol produced the first quarter volumes were higher due to a full quarter production from our Otter Tail plant, which we acquired in early March last year offset partially with the production slowdowns, Todd mentioned. Our average cost per bushel per corn increased by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 2011. The increase in cost of goods sold for the ethanol production segment also includes the one-time charge for legal settlement recorded in the first quarter of 2012. Our gross profit for the first quarter was $8.8 million which was down $28.9 million when compared to the…
Todd Becker
Management
Thanks Jerry. We’ve continued to make positive strides on several projects for 2012. The construction of our 96 car unit train terminal in Birmingham, Alabama is making good progress and is on scheduled to generate revenue for us beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. We are in the process of selling out the capacity of the terminal and continue to believe this will be a very successful project. BioProcess Algae’s 5-acre production facility is making excellent progress. The project is on scheduled to be completed in the third quarter of 2012 and our analysis continues to provide us with a path to profitability and we believe that our collocation strategy is the best model to optimize the production of Algae. The company is in advanced stocks with uses of the product across several industries around food, feed and fuel as well as discussion with large CO2 sources to provide a profitable solution to cover mitigation. There should be many updates over the next several months on the progress on all fronts for this business. Now back to the ethanol industry, so for the past three years you’ve heard us say that there will be a quarter where we can lose money and that the dynamics of a commodity processing business will lead to parries of peak margins and then compressed margins. The company just experienced that cycle in the last two quarters. As I indicted in my opening remarks we went from peak industry production and peak margins to a rapid trough like environment. Part of our strategy over last several years was to bulk up the balance sheet for just this event. We ended the quarter with a strong cash balance and possibly a better liquidity position than we’ve ever had. We came into the quarter with…
Operator
Operator
Okay. (Operator Instructions) At this time we will go to Farha Aslam with Stephens, Inc. Please go ahead. Farha Aslam – Stephens Inc: Hi, good morning.
Todd Becker
Management
Good morning.
Jerry Peters
Management
Good morning. Farha Aslam – Stephens Inc: Todd, you mentioned that you anticipate that the ethanol market production is to go down further from current levels for the end of the industry to get healthy. How much of a decline from current levels do you anticipate is required?
Todd Becker
Management
I think we will know when we start to see the summer driving season and see if we can draws out of storage. So we’ve taken it down from high of about 970,000 a day to about 863,000 barrels a day as reported last week and saw a slight drop in inventory level. So I think if we can continue to see that and get inventory down from the levels that they are at and we’ll start to see margins improve, but we can maintain 863,000 and with a 132 billion gallon kind of demand run rate over the year for gasoline and the export number that we’re expecting we should – at least start seeing draws based on all of these numbers and we can get production, a little more production out of the market as an industry I think you’ll start to see a good improvement in the ethanol margin because we are trying to see some tightness in some markets. Farha Aslam – Stephens Inc: Okay, and then in terms of the export number and how much E15 you anticipate will use this year?
Todd Becker
Management
We’re still running that export number as we were saying between 500 million and 700 million gallons. It could be higher, I think you have to watch to Brazil, while everybody thinks Brazil will be exporting lot to the U.S. as their ethanol season come down coming late in the third and all of the fourth were kind of the only game in town for the world. And at the price spread that ethanol is trading we expect some good strong demand at the end of the year, much possibly like we’ve seen last year. And so our number while remain 500 million to 700 million is running at a higher pace than that as we speak. In terms of E15, I think we will see some implementation of E15 whether it’s going to be 20 million gallons or 200 million gallons or whatever the number is any of its going to be fine. I think we have challenges still but we are getting closure to the retail where we’re starting to see a lot of interest from retailers understanding how did they sell it, how did they make sure they are complying with all the EPA regulation, do they sticker their pumps, what’s their misfiling and mitigation plan, all of those types of things are all under process of – and the final stage is being worked out. We’re doing a lot of work around. What we want to do is meet the way even though we are a very small retailer in the state of Iowa, we want to lead the way by being the first one to – one of the first ones to make sure our proms are compliant and we re-label them. We’re actually going to switch all of our stations from E10 to E15. We won’t even sell E10 anymore and we think that is in the next potentially 60 to 90 days. Steve, do you have any – Steve has been working on that. And what you think Iowa will be and then possibly where you think the demand will be for the year.
Steve Bleyl
Management
I think we will start – we’ve started in Iowa to solve some of the problems that Todd alluded to get them into the marketplace. And as you go further into the season, you will start to see the demand pick up as we go back into the fall driving season, you have people preparing more for a September 15th and beyond kick off date to try and get it whether they have the top royalty piece of one of the driving season, so that’s when you start to see a true large demand pick up or it’s going happen.
Todd Becker
Management
I think and finally we’ve seen some of our independent terminal owners to get ready for the full switch to E15, and I think that’s very important as well. So it’s really a function of where do you secure the base fuel stock from and then how do you get that from a market, and then touch the economics of the plan. But there is definitely economic reason to get to market and I think the best that we move as an industry the more we can get solo. Farha Aslam – Stephens Inc: Thank you. And my final question is around your rail initiative. I really don’t understand kind of the opportunities in terms of the size of the opportunity, how long it’ll left, what are the dynamics and puts and takes. Could you flush that out a little bit more and give us some more outlook on what that marketing and distribution segment can earn over the next few quarters, because the earnings in this quarter were quite surprising.
Jerry Peters
Management
Yeah. Well those are some that were timing issues, which we can clarify, but so when we look at our fleet, the first thing you have to look at is we have a fleet that averages a pretty low lease rates per month. And so we run about 1,600 tank cars at this point. And so when we looked at our fleet and we said we saw the market starting to tick up and everybody knows that at least tank cars is that the market have picked up from $800 to $1,000, $1,200 to $1,500 to $2,000 even up to $3,000 a month being offered for some short-term leases because of the lack of takeaway capacity for all the new crude oil coming online around the U.S. And the best way to move it is in a tank car that the ethanol industry uses. So while we looked at that we said to ourselves, okay we can do one of two things, we can either lease the – just lease some of our tank cars out and make good money. You can actually make very good doing that and if your marginal producer, a small producer, you can actually lease your tank cars out to make more money doing that because the least tank rates right now – tank lease rates right now are about and they are going to take more like $0.40 a gallon, you’re going to earn that on the margins, you’d actually earn that by leasing your rail cars out and actually slowing or shutting your plants. So there is potential that some plants will do that. So, when we examine that, we said, well that’s interesting, but we’re really not interested in just leasing cars out and we want to get more into the actual…
Operator
Operator
At this time we will go to Michael Cox with Piper Jaffray. Michael Cox – Piper Jaffray: Thanks a lot for taking my questions. I’d like to dig into this rail car strategy a little bit more, if we could because of the time it takes to get involved and you talked about the difficulty in this, but yet you have a more optimistic view on where margins, production margins will be and even what you are locking away, how long are these lease terms on these cars and what – it seems like a of sort of a short-term oriented strategy against the backdrop of what could much better ethanol production margins in just a few months time, could you may be walk me through the rationale behind it.
Todd Becker
Management
If margins got better in a few months time, we would still be able to run both programs. It would just be a function of we use any more of our fleet over and above kind of 300 cars because we could find efficiencies to better utilize our cars and this is not a three month program though. When you look at – and the numbers are out there, when you look at takeaway capacity out of all those new crude oil production and you look at the need for tank cars in the U.S., you can see that this is not a three month, four month, five month deal. This is a multiple, this is a potentially multiyear deal until tank car production catches up with current needs. But you kind of go couple of years down the line, you say okay, tank cars catches up with today’s needs. But it’s not going to catch up with tomorrow’s needs as you see more and more production coming out of the ground. So while today maybe, say the Bakken, for example produces 600,000 barrels a day, but it’s expected to go 1.5 million barrels a day and you look at what everybody is doing, which is gearing up whether you are U.S. pipeline or a U.S. carrier or rail carrier, they are gearing up for that number to happen. This tank car thing could be on for many years that’s why you are starting to see – you have oil refiners buying 1,000 tankers at a time. And it’s 2013, 2014 delivery and meantime they will have takeaway capacity and that’s just based on today’s expectation of what’s coming out of the ground. So, it will be very interesting on that does to ethanol because when you have a single…
Todd Becker
Management
I think the channel is preparing for E15. So, I think like markets that could draw E15 the quickest are preparing as we speak. So – like some of the Pennsylvania markets, some of the Northeast markets. Iowa, we’re going to figure where we at the blend stock from or the fuel stock, low RVP gas, but we’ll bring that in if we have to because the economics are so compelling. So yes, I think some markets are gearing up, some aren’t even thinking about it. But overall, you have the independent refiner, the independent terminal and the ethanol industry, and the independent retailer; all are trying to do this. We are defiantly getting pushbacks from the big oil, we’re getting pushbacks from even some of the mainly bigger terminal systems in the U.S, yes, because they’re so driven by profitability of that other side of the industry that – but in general we’re going – we are definitely winning some of the battles and making progress in a lot of markets. Steve you want to just comment anymore on what you know.
Jerry Peters
Management
It’s been driven by some of the retailers that to see the spread, and they are the ones that are pushing – been pushing back up to the terminaling companies to be registered and certified and capable of dispensing E15 and that’s where it’s going come from. They’ll get the retail asset in line so that they can dispense E15 and then they push back upstream to their supplier – to their terminal to their suppliers to supply blend stock and the ability to blend. So that’s where it comes from, the retailer receives the spread right now. Michael Cox – Piper Jaffray: Okay. My last question, I’d be interested in your thoughts on production levels at your facilities here as we look at 2Q and I guess in this third quarter, do you expect to ramp up closer to your run rate capacity or will you still continuing to run at this more curtailed level?
Jerry Peters
Management
We’ve started to ramp up a little bit, but not very much, I mean I expect that Q2 will be similar to Q1. But we probably won’t see the same opportunity around the ability to store and earn money. If you – which is interesting because in the middle of Q1 at the downside, at probably at the bottom of the cycle, we’re starting to see $0.02 a month, given a little bit more to actually store ethanol which we look at. We have 280,000 barrels of storage in our own plants and you have $0.02 a month, your interest carries about $0.06 per months. So there is definitely return on face that we were earning. We don’t see that same return on face, so that the real question is why and so it’s the question why because inventories are starting to come down and we’re starting to see production come down and so the market is same, we’re not going to start to carry it. And may be something that underlying the market is changing and we were looking at that closely. But in general we expect we are at this point, we’re going to run very similar in Q2 that we did in Q1. One thing- so there is a few benefits, when you run a little bit, so you have to – in markets where margins are narrow, you have to examine your cost or your slowdown cost versus your yield gain. And these are really some – when margins are good, you run full out and you might lose a little bit of yield, and but that’s paid – you’re being paid for to do that because margins are so good like they’re 18 and 20 and 30 something a gallon and you run full out…
Todd Becker
Management
Thanks, Michael.
Operator
Operator
At this time, we will move to Matt Farwell with Imperial Capital. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Hey. Good morning. Just curious, could you just reaffirm what your debt service cost is per gallon this year?
Jerry Peters
Management
Matt, it’s $0.10 per gallon, it remained right at that level. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Okay. But some of the scheduled principle repayments are related to revolvers and cash flow sweeps?
Jerry Peters
Management
Right. The $0.10 per gallon doesn’t include cash flow sweeps, which would come from cash flows well in excess of $0.10. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Okay. So then when you are locking in margins for the second half, are you still using debt service coverage as a criterion or are you locking margins below that level.
Todd Becker
Management
For the second half of the year, we are not – second half of the year especially the last three or four months of the year you are in high teens, low twenties. So, you don’t have to use any of that thought process and we are locking margins away. So that’s how we’re kind of thinking of that. That’s historically better than our three-year average. We are seeing the opportunity to do it. We will only do it when we secure physical corn and the farmer has started to let go some physical corn for new corps as these kind of coming out of the field. It’s weird to say that, but coming out of the field in April with a corn corps fully planted, even coming out of the field in March with a corn crop fully planted, they started to look for the corn. So, it’s just one of those things that as the farmer gets more comfortable that he has the acres in and he feels like he is off to a good start. We will see more corn move. I think what people have to understand is that on June 1going into kind of that summer season, even though we’re going to end the year at 800 million bushels, there is still 3.8 billion bushels or so on June 1, there is a billion bushels demand per month. So there is still plenty of corn out there, but the farmer is going to control those stocks and as he comes out the field we will start to see him selling – potentially selling more new corp. Now don’t get me wrong, the demand is robust, but as he comes out of field and he is selling new crop or old crop, he is actually considering his new crop numbers as well. So, we’re just using that as a proxy to lock margins away.
Jerry Peters
Management
But we are not doing anything beyond, not much beyond like we normally would lock beyond our physical purchases. We would not be afraid to do that, except that we won’t do that anymore for a while, we will lock away where we buy from physical corn standpoint, we’ve seen too much – there is actually sometimes more volatility in the bases than there is in the underlying. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: What’s your expectation for the bases, do you think it could break in June or do you think that will see and also is it moving higher from where it was in the first quarter? And do you think it could break in June or will we have to wait until new crop?
Todd Becker
Management
We’re seeing nothing right now that’s going to see that this domestic bases has any fundamental reason to go down. So is it higher than the first quarter? Yeah. It’s higher than the first quarter, but the spreads are very different too, so you have major like corn spread that is inverted instead of any carry, so just changes. It’s not a single question that you can answer. We do see actually even with a higher corn bases, we do see better margins, so it’s – and part of that is DVG returns have gone up a little bit as well. So – and natural gas come down. So net-net we’ve seen overall better margin structure with a higher corn bases, so you can’t just look at – you can never just look at the corn bases and say that that’s going to impact your ethanol margin because if you look at last year, we had record high corn bases during a peak margin environment. So – but it does have definitely have an impact on the way that think about the market. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Got it. And just big picture, looking at E15, you’re suggesting that big oils pushing back on rolling it out, but when I look at 2013, it seems like there, you can back into kind of a required amount of E15 in the market around 10 billion gallons, if you believe the mandate will be fulfilled with 13.8 billion gallons next year. So how do you reconcile the two, what could happen?
Jerry Peters
Management
What you’re looking at is the 13.8 on the RFS for 2013?
Todd Becker
Management
Right. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Right. And if you look at it based on demand and where it is, it’s a higher percentage than 10% of what the U.S. ethanol demand is probably going to be?
Todd Becker
Management
Yes, so it will get reconciled through – potentially through E15 or through potentially if there is a waiver, but I don’t think the U.S. is setup to do. I mean, they are setup to fund more ethanol, and so that will have to get reconciled someway share reform. Now, I don’t think anybody is calling for higher gas demand next year. So that’s – is not going to come from there. So E15 is really the only the way to get there, that’s why we’re working so hard and on doing it, that’s why they are working so hard and on not having it. Because it just takes away from more, more and more of typical gas based business, if we burn more ethanol, so every gallon of ethanol that gets burned a gallon of gasoline that don’t over and above the 10%. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Right.
Todd Becker
Management
So it’s a battle and we have to be very well prepared to fight the battle. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: It means are you seeing in gasoline demand, exports are – comprise a large source of demand and they have in previous years. Are those exported gasoline gallons they blended with ethanol?
Todd Becker
Management
Some are and some are not. If the numbers kind of vary on what is going offshore with it right now. The majority which is all leading was unblended ethanol, was unblended gasoline. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: Okay.
Jerry Peters
Management
What you’re seeing though, you could actually put up now and still not be a blended gallon to be, correct me if I’m wrong, you put above 1%.
Jerry Peters
Management
Yep. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: 1% of ethanol and still have it disqualified as an export gasoline without being a blended gallon.
Jerry Peters
Management
(Inaudible) gallon.
Todd Becker
Management
And we do see people doing that as the economics are favorable, so that’s not also and kind of does it, it might be in the overall export number, but it’s nothing as people miss. Matt Farwell – Imperial Capital: I see. Okay, well thanks a lot for answering my questions.
Todd Becker
Management
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Operator
And next question will be from Patrick Jobin with Credit Suisse. Patrick Jobin – Credit Suisse: Great. Good morning and thanks for taking my question, some exciting opportunities with the railcars. I guess just turning back to ethanol briefly, I wanted to touch on the comments you made about yield improvements unlocking that 7% starch. And how much do you think is obtainable and what should we expect investments to be made or is that something that could hit 2012 or 2013 or just some sense around that will be helpful.
Todd Becker
Management
Yeah, I just do a quick comment and I’ll let Jeff kind follow-up. We’ve done – we’ve been working several years on increasing yields at our plans and some is slower than other – some have gone slower than others. We have seen and it’s going to kind of going to come either biologically or mechanically. And so we’ve been working more on the mechanical side of it to see where and how we get more while companies like Novozone and Genencor worked on the biology side of it and they’re making improvements as well. So, in the combination of both of those as well as continuing to even a variety of corn makes a difference as well. So we have plants right now that are pushing 294 yield and we have some plants that are lagging behind still under 270, but overall from the average we’re at 284. And so we just need to get those laggards continue to get those improving and those – I think we will see that overtime. I think that’s where the USDHS doesn’t have a good understanding of what our yields are as an industry using 271 and their numbers for the balance sheet. So Jeff, do you want comment about on what we’re doing.
Jeffrey Briggs
Management
Yeah. It revolves a lot around the enzymes that we’re using, the rates, some of the processing and grinding processes that we do use and when we look at everything in total, also some of this around the technology. One of the things that we’ve learned is that our delta tea plants can actually be pretty efficient yield animals compared to some of the previous ones that we thought. And so after operating for two years, that become a very good platform for us from a yield standpoint. The opportunities in the nearby, certainly give us some insight into what we had in terms of our chemicals, our chemistry rates, the grain rates, all those things have really brought down to the bottom line, very focused on chemical usage as well. And without disclosing a lot of details around that process, chemicals in terms of our actual usage, in terms of our pricing strategies everything has really gone to the bottom line in the first quarter and that’s become a big help for us. And so, when you look at the projects technology wise, ICM and others and so there has been quite a bit around that for benefits. Patrick Jobin – Credit Suisse: Okay. Thanks. And then lastly could you I guess go back and maybe quantify some of the margins that you have been able to walk away for May and I guess going into early June, and then what you have seen in Q4, just you mentioned it’s positive, it’s better than Q1, but any color on the magnitude will be helpful. Thanks.
Todd Becker
Management
So what we’ve been able to see is with some margins at the trough of the whole move, we saw Q2 margins, negative EBITDA as well. So as we moved into the kind of the positive numbers with the end, impact of yield improvement, we’re kind of mid to high single digits depending on the plans, some are lower, some are higher. We haven’t walked everything away, it’s very volatile and we’re seeing first standard deviation moves on the margin every day. I mean, its’ really that’s how volatile this is. So we are trying to lock what we can away, we’ll always go to the best margin on the board. So I mean, I could say second quarter is still going to be a challenge. It will be better than the first quarter, we do not expect a repeat. And then as we get out to late third or early fourth, we have margins in kind of mid to high teens to low twenties depending on the plant. We have our early Tennessee plant has the best margins in August and Sep and those are in mid high 20s. But the rest of the platform we wouldn’t lock in any other July, august, Sep at all. So, it is just kind of plant specific, it is kind of plant specific and corn basis specific, I mean all and any of the above. So, second quarter is still going to be a bit tougher than we would like, but overall the improvement in the curve in the second quarter is definitely better than the first and so just got to wait and see how that will impact. So when you kind of combine that with some other initiatives in place, good corn oil, corn oil prices have done very well with bean oil rallying as well as hitting oil and some additional demand from the feeders and the biodiesel guys. So overall it’s going to be a better quarter, but we’re still in a challenging environment. Patrick Jobin – Credit Suisse: Okay, Todd. And you made one comment, so just one last question. You made a comment in your prepared remarks about some exciting growth initiatives I guess potentially above and beyond the railcar asset utilization, are there other things you are looking at as far as expanding capacity or how should we frame these comments?
Todd Becker
Management
Well, I think we are looking at – when you look at start their ethanol plant and I know we are a grain company, but you have the ethanol plant and first handle opportunities. We haven’t never taken advantage of the first handle opportunity at the ethanol structure, so we are looking at, are there things that we can do to get that first bushel from the farmer at our ethanol plants at places like Indiana, Michigan where it’s key to get the first bushel and so whether we put the flat store jump in our ethanol plants, look at those opportunities to get more and more of that early bushel at the better prices we are looking to allocate capital, which we think will widening our margins over the long-term and have a better supply structure. It can happen with any grain business or outside of the grain business, but we see the opportunity there. We see the opportunity in what Jeff is doing in operations. We are seeing great improvements by deploying some of these early kind of yield improvement initiatives that if we can continue to push up from 284 and every point of yield is meaningful to us. And it does, and your cost of that improvement is your best return on capital that we have today. So we spent a lot of time on that. We have the bottlenecked our corn oil and we continue to the bottleneck our corn oil extraction. We actually got so good at it, we had to push it back to make sure that we don’t degrade the quality of the feed and so we know we’ve managed it very closely to make sure our end used customers get the very best product that we can make for them and…
Operator
Operator
And moving along we will hear from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Unidentified Analyst
Management
Good morning. This is Lucy on for Laurence today.
Todd Becker
Management
Hello, Lucy.
Unidentified Analyst
Management
Couple of questions on Algae, have you seen any delays at all in client user testing for the food, feed and fuel applications?
Todd Becker
Management
No, not all actually we get more callers every day for our products. What you need is that we actually have product and we can give the people that want to test it we can give dry wholesale flakes, or we can give them as the BioProcess Algae company can give them more of a toothpaste liquid form depending on what they want. We are being tested in a wide variety of applications right now from food, nutraceuticals and even household pets applications and things like soap and (inaudible) foods and things that people want. We don’t want to make any of that. We just want to sell then what they need to get themselves. If your company need algae to put into a product, we just sell only algae we don’t on IP, we don’t it want it on the company’s IP, we just want to sell the algae at profitable, in a profitable way. So we’ve got the, we’ve got the projects that’s being operating right now. We got the five acres coming online, those five acres will end up in some consumer product whether it’s (inaudible) or our food product and we have several opportunities that we are looking at and those ASPs, so the average corn prices are very high. It will contribute also our bottom line not necessarily because we’re still developing costs and our next step is we want to look at how do we rapidly grow from five acres – whether it’s a 100 acres or 500 acres, there is a demand for its which we think there is. How do we rapidly grow to put out a product of commodity based kind of high value algae flake, but we are in many, many tests right now and talking to very a lot of larger carbon emitters as well as food, feed and fuel companies.
Unidentified Analyst
Management
Okay. And you touched on this just a little bit during your prepared remarks, but what is current interest in share buybacks at this level?
Jerry Peters
Management
Well, we like at eight, and we like it at 10 and you know what we always look at it for our shareholder to say what’s the best thing to do, I think what we did even though at this point it might not see as appealing to some, what we did is we bought back company very large portion of the company at an average of about $9 a share and so we like the stock. We liked the ownership there. I think when you take a look at – looking at the pieces of what we do and you start with the agribusiness segment and you look at, a recent transaction in kind of a 8 to 10 multiple of EBITDA and you kind of equate that to our equity value with $30 million of term debt against that asset roughly, you can see that that’s not really represented fully in our price. When you look at the $430 million of debt against 740 million gallons of production, you look at de-levering that has taken place, and you look at the equity value that’s left in those assets versus the current market which we’ve seen an asset trade is as high as the $1.29 a gallon, a very good ICMS at not a hundred, but even a smaller one trading that high $1.20 range. And if you look at the equity value of those assets and we think we have kinds of value there. When you look at our cash balance, when you look at our even our BlendStar business, in a multiple of a terminal business, we think we have value there. So it should – but we have to make money and it comes on to that ethanol EBITDA and that’s still our driving force. But we think the overall base platform value is the reason why we look at buying our stock back at an average of about $9 a share. Because we felt for our shareholders after we generated over $350 million of EBITDA over the last three years, we felt that we had cash available to do that and really get that shareholding consolidated among kind of the investors, our institutional sponsorship, and then our retail sponsorship.
Unidentified Analyst
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
At this we will hear from Craig Irwin with Wedbush Securities. Craig Irwin – Wedbush Securities: Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. There has been quite a lot of press coverage out there and a number of different people saying that we’re most likely can have a challenging time meeting the mandate levels for the year. And they are just two mandates, could potentially see short fall. How do you see this playing out for the industry? Do you think that this is something where it could create more significant demand in 2013 as far as compliance and the potentials for E15 to play or do you think that there are other alternatives that will make this less of an issue for the obligated parties?
Jerry Peters
Management
Well, I think this year when you look at the mandate of 13/2, again what’s kind of attracting that 130 billion – 233 gallon gas demand range, and with the production level that’s went up to through mid-14s meeting the mandates will not be a problem in 2012. And in fact we’ve taken our production down actually in 8.60 rate, so that production run rate, I think it’s about a 13/1 production run rate anyway. So from a production run rate, we’re actually producing below mandate levels, but you’ve got enough inventory to make up the difference over the monthly demand, but then as exports kick in you won’t have enough and you or the E15 kicks in, you won’t have enough, you’ll have to either kick production up or just potentially earn better margins. So I don’t think this year it will be the problem, next year with – we produced a 133 – when demand is 133 billion again, and the industry the demand is 13/8 then that will be more interesting time and that’s what we’ve talked about earlier where E15 may kick in and alleviate that problem as well. But in general we shouldn’t have any trouble of meeting the mandate, it’s a function of how do we get more ethanol in the market using the E15 as the component. Craig Irwin – Wedbush Securities: Great. So my next question is you mentioned in previous comments that you’re seeing assets trade a buck 20 a gallon. Obviously you’re buying your own plants, but what are the industry participants that are taking out assets out of buck 20 a gallon seeing that’s it’s not visible to the equity investors that are obviously valuing Green Plains with a significant discount to that?
Jerry Peters
Management
That is the hundreds of millions of dollars question. I think, it’s a great question and that’s what we’ve been trying to figure out, because when we bought our shares back in $9 a share. We’d like these kind of the value in that mid $0.70 to $0.80 a gallon range – per gallon. That’s what in kind of incented us to do that when it takes us – it really truly does take us to $1.20 a gallon to buy a good ICM plant in the middle of Iowa, minimum. You might have to be able to buy it there actually, because there is plants that have been a bid higher than that that haven’t treated. And so, what the – somebody who wants to own a plant as seeing versus somebody who wants to own equity as seeing is something that we have been trying to figure out. And so, if I wanted to go and buy – if I wanted to go and buy, I want my ICM plant today, a similar plant in the State of Iowa, number one, I don’t know if I could actually find one for sale and number two, I don’t know that I actually could buy it for less than $1.30 a gallon right now, if you’re farmer on plant with very little debt. And so – and Steve, we’ve seen that several times, we’ve seen actually framer implants turned down bids and is it the big oil guys stepping in again or the big refinery? No, actually, it’s just trading among participants that have cash that say, at this price, we’ve seen good enough returns over the last several years that we can justify that over the long-term. So there is definitely a disconnect, but we try to – the reason we brought our stock back at $9 a share is because of that disconnect. And again, that will reconcile itself at some point. It’s just – I’ll probably just take time to do that. Craig Irwin – Wedbush Securities: Great. And then last question if I may. In the past you’ve been very opportunistic about acquisitions obviously, recently buying your own stock. Would you consider further acquisitions to increase your overall participant – participation in the ethanol market or are you more likely to deploy capital in alternative investments?
Todd Becker
Management
Well, I mean, at this point, we don’t have anything that we can buy in ethanol, let’s say we’re not going to look at anything and there is nothing very appealing out there. So I would never say never about ethanol, I mean, at this point, I think we – we’re in it and so if there was a plan that came up and it was interesting and there was a good value, we have to look at it, we believe in the long-term story. We believe in E15, we believe in some – we believe this as a good motor fuel. It’s not the end albeit, but it is a good motor fuel. It’s the biggest replacement for gasoline ever in the history of motor fuel. So I think you have to respect that and I think that over the long term if you believe the margin be there, I think then you have to look at those opportunities. But we also look at growing our Agribusiness segment, growing our terminal business, looking at other opportunities, deploying capital and ultimately we’ll have to determine, we don’t have any other places to do that. There are few ways to work on that. You either continue to pay down debt or give it back to your shareholder, and so we have to examine that but we are not at that point right now. Craig Irwin – Wedbush Securities: Could you share with us how you would prioritize those different investments please.
Todd Becker
Management
Really it just depends on what comes forward, if it’s Agribusiness asset, it’s appealing. They are all, all they all something we are looking at. So I wouldn’t today say that I would choose any over the other except that we are looking at the ends more than we look at the middle. We are looking at the handling and the beginning and the handling at the end of the chain. More than we look at the middle of the chain because the middle of the chain doesn’t have any opportunity today plus the buying thing it at an reasonable price. Craig Irwin – Wedbush Securities: Great.
Todd Becker
Management
Again disconnect between public activity and private purchases. Craig Irwin – Wedbush Securities: Understood. Thank you for taking my questions.
Todd Becker
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
At this time we will go to Brent, Brent Rystrom with Feltl & Co. Brent Rystrom – Feltl & Company: Hi. Good morning. Just couple of quick questions, could you give us a little more insight on the fertilizers, the change was down, does this have any implications for this season or is it just timing as far as say later in the inventory now and running it through more the system closer to the application time.
Todd Becker
Management
Well fertilizer in the first quarter is typically down anyways. We saw some early applications in Iowa, but we’re really a second quarter fertilizer company. Brent Rystrom – Feltl & Company: But what I was – Thank you, Todd. You’re at 2,357 million tons sold this year versus 3,108 million last year. So, I am assuming you’re just shallower on inventory and you’re going to ship more times, more at the application time, you’re not applying to seem down 20%, I guess what I am saying.
Todd Becker
Management
Not at all, it’s a very low three month period overall for us and we do 60,000 tons of fertilizer or so maybe 70,000 tons something like that. And so the first quarter is not an indication of anything. We had a good strong second quarter. We have clean, good investment in from the farmer and making sure that corn crop gets up well and so overall we don’t see that as anything that you should view as a pattern. Brent Rystrom – Feltl & Company: We can see nitrogen is doing well by what’s going with prices you have in last two days, Mosaic come out and say they see a strong demand and then Potash yesterday come on say they see weak demand for potash, any thoughts on what you are seeing? The potash fertilizer itself.
Todd Becker
Management
Our demand is pretty similar last, I mean where we sell there is not a lot of change in rotation. So, I mean we are probably finding a little more corn, but in general there is not a lot in rotation. So from our standpoint everything is pretty steady. So nationally I haven’t seen – I mean nitrogen is obviously showing it’s colors right because of the price but in general the farmer is investing in this crop this year for sure and is planting a lot of corn and it’s going early and it’s going in well.
Jerry Peters
Management
(Inaudible) this morning just on their call, I feel that should be (inaudible) harvest and they tightened the amount towards the low end of the range. They have been talking up towards 21 million metric tons, now there is 16 million to 17 million. Unica just said the other day they only see sugarcane harvest in Center south (inaudible) of 3% to 4%. I would actual think that this would suggest that exports to the U.S. from Brazil are pretty much unlikely until mid-part of next year. They post even a risk. I think you said earlier today that you might see some later this year. But if sugarcane production as just up 3% to 4% in the center south I don’t see statistically how it could even export off this year’s crop?
Todd Becker
Management
Except that they have this window where it all comes in and may make all their ethanol. And so during that window there is excess that has to move. And so it just depends on what the government does. If the government allows it and they let it go it will come here, if they don’t allow it and they say, no, you are not exporting to the U.S it won’t come here. So, I think it’s a window and it doesn’t matter necessarily what the sugar crop is in that window and then after that window closes we probably won’t see them after that until next sugarcane harvest. Steve, you got any comment on that?
Steve Bleyl
Management
Well, I think the rule in the California department would be more valuable so you are starting to see something by that.
Todd Becker
Management
Yeah, so that is something that’s why it’s coming in and then the Florida as well. You see some of there, but it’s is really just isolated to that time period and then just to take advantage it may be a D5 range arbitration other than that it’s good news if one (inaudible).
Steve Bleyl
Management
It is and I don’t think you’ll see any more allocated, I think it will just flow the barrels over to California as all of it. Brent Rystrom – Feltl & Company: Great, I’ve got just a couple three quick more questions and let’s get done here. Railcar leases, my actuation would be having grown up in the Bakken. All the pipelines growing and there is a window of about two years before those pipelines really start to hit. Is that kind of what you guys are looking at from the railcar leasing perspective?
Todd Becker
Management
Steve has some take on that and then I’ll finish up on that as well.
Steve Bleyl
Management
And I think Jeff could add to it. I don’t think you’ll see – we want the capacity increase on the rail are on the pipelines. We still that the excess capacity, it still has to be made by rail. You’re still seeing infrastructure investments being made but being in other railroads up there, because the rail are the pipeline capacity will not be able to handle all the increased production.
Todd Becker
Management
Jeff.
Jeffrey Briggs
Management
Yes. And some of it depends politically what happens with Keystone and follow on pipelines there. So I think there is some political risks surrounding that for me administration and it all depends on what the projections and the output are at the Bakken. We’ve heard numbers up to a 1 million a day fairly quickly but there are some people that are projection 1.5 million a day within the next two years. And so, if the estimates continue to be conservative versus the actual, our growth rate has been significantly beyond what was projected a year ago if you look at year forward. That’s going to mean that there is a continued haul of pipeline takeaway capacity from that area.
Todd Becker
Management
So we have to study the chart Brent, because it will definitely affect the marginal barrel of ethanol. And so that’s why when we’re answering these questions, you see that we’ve spend a lot of time thinking about the tank cars and the impacts that will have on the industry by taking that excess capacity or even some of the needed capacity by industry of tank cars and the impact that it could have over the – next couple of years in U.S. ethanol market. It could really change things because I don’t think that the railcar companies can roll them off that versus the needed takeaway capacity. So we have to really look at that and I don’t actually think that’s a negative risk for us. I think it’s actually potentially – we look it as a potential positive risk. It’s kind of like what we say. We hope, companies that – so I think I’ll step back, so when we look at that and we say, if we could change the way that you U.S. Ethanol potentially trades, then it has to be essentially positive for the margin and if you can earn more money with your assets doing something else, it’s potentially positive, potentially positive, just has to still play out. So it’s kind the any in all of above strategy, but we have to be very cognizant that, somebody wants our rail cars, and there aren’t enough coming off and there is big demand that at $3,000 a car, if you think about an ethanol plant, and you put 30,000 gallons in a car, $0.10 a gallon right there, you got a paper car. At the low end of the range, we are leasing up for $250 a car three years ago. So that’s a big change in ethanol economics that if you all sort of can’t move ethanol where you’re going to get it from, you’re going to have pay more for it. And you can see that, I mean the spread, there is more to say because the spread between gas and ethanol. So why they can pay more for ethanol, it’s just a function of this buy demand man equilibrium getting out of whack. Brent Rystrom – Feltl & Company: Final question I have for you is, looking at some of the activity up in Canada, (inaudible) your neighbors are telling there in rumors about Mitsubishi possibly buying them, are you seeing larger entity interest in the, what I would call the, agriculture infrastructure that you’re kind of building across obviously ethanol, obviously your (inaudible) centers, the whole thing, are you seeing acquisition interest of you?
Jerry Peters
Management
Well, we like those transactions because I think you can put at least a print to understand why we’ve done what we’ve done. So we generated – we doubled our EBITDA last year in that segment to in the range of $15 million EBITDA and we’ve seen multiples in transactions trades eight to 10 and that was a 11 multiple on the first when you talked about of the EBITDA and so we’d like to see those prints and that’s how we look at it. And we’ve built it up and I’m not actively marketing our grain business at this point. It has a lot of value you can’t go buy, I cannot go repeat what I’ve done very quickly now. We’ve built 40 million bushels as a company of storage in terms of acquisitions and some organic growth and when you look at that business replacement cost alone to do that is significant opportunity and it takes a year, it will take you a couple of years to do that. The value of the assets versus the multiple of being paid versus the crops coming in the world and the U.S. still being the residual supplier of the world, we’re very happy with what we’ve done in our Agribusiness segment and it’s not repeatable very quickly and to buy a 40 million bushel grain business in the U.S. today at any reasonable value is near impossible. So we’ve seen many transactions that we like, what we’ve seen eventually we believe it will get reflected in our value. Brent Rystrom – Feltl & Company: Thanks, guys.
Todd Becker
Management
Thanks. I appreciate it.
Operator
Operator
And that is all the time that we have a questions. At this time I’ll turn things back over to Todd, back for any additional or closing remarks.
Todd Becker
Management
Well, I want to thank everybody for coming on today. Obviously, it’s not wasn’t a greatest quarter, we think we have a lot of positives coming out of the quarter albeit we still have a challenge out there ahead of us for a little while, but we are locking in margins for the second quarter and looking out on the curve. We think what we’ve built up over the last several years after 11 profitable quarters, $300 million plus of EBITDA, positive net income on the bottom line for three years in a row, prepared us for this time. We have – we had a better situation from a balance sheet to withstand a cyclical downturn that we would have been three years ago, and that’s all just a function what we’ve been able to over a lots of couple of years. We’re going to generate over $50 million of non-ethanol operating income from our three segments. Which we think is a, a very big advantage for us and we continue to be committed to what we do in our structure in our strategy that we’ve laid out to you over the last couple of year. And we appreciate, we appreciate your continued support Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
Again, ladies and gentleman, this does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.