Jeff Sloan
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open. David, your line is open. You maybe on mute.
Yeah, Dave. It's Jeff. I'll start and ask Cameron to join in. So let me just start by saying by, kind of not answering the question, but I do want to call out our relationship-led businesses. So they also had a very good quarter. So we produced high single digit growth in our relationship-led businesses compared to the first quarter of ‘20 for which 85% in the first quarter of ‘20 had no pandemic. So I want to call that out. As we also said in our prepared remarks - prepared remarks, we had record new sales in our relationship-led businesses in the first quarter of ‘21, again, coming out of pandemic. So I don't want to lose sight of that, before we address your question more directly. Second, as it relates to your question, look, I don't think consumers are going to go backward. I don't think people are going to say, I want to spend more time online. Where can we find the ATM to get more cash? There is no bull market for cash. I think what we've seen that pandemic do is accelerates 3 to 5 years behavioural change on the consumer side. Cameron just went a minute ago, in response to Andrew's question, the bookings growth in our e-comm, omni businesses which is extraordinary, again, not lapping the pandemic for the first quarter of 2020. So listen, I think, at the end of the day, in my opinion, the answer to your question is, I just don't see the trends of safer commerce, contactless commerce, omni-channel acceptance, I don't see folks moving backwards. I think it's going to accelerate the underlying trends that we've seen over time. I'd also say relative to kind of credit, debit mix, I don't see that changing either. The only time that we've really seen debit cannibalized credit was back in the early ‘09 recession when credit was really tapped, so all that is left that is debit. We really haven't seen that here. I do think you'll see alternative means of payment, of course, in Europe, where I know you're focused in particularly. We've got assets, account-to-account transactions. We've got real-time payments, that kind of thing. Of course, we've got Afterpay and those types of installment payment plans, which I think we're a market leader in, both in our Issuing business and our Acquiring business. So I think there may be mix changes in terms of how people actually pay for things, but I don't think we're going to see debit cannibalized credit like we saw in ‘08, we have not seen that really throughout the pandemic, and I don't see people kind of going backwards on convenience of use.