David E. Mangum
Analyst · Dan Perlin, RBC
Sure, Dan. Happy to do that. And I think in regard to pricing, I'd point out, we're really talking about Canada there and the changes driven by the networks more than anything else on a worldwide basis. So if you were to disaggregate the way the markets are going to rollout or the way we think they're going to rollout over the course of the year, as you know the U.S. is an amalgam of a number of product lines. So in the U.S. we're expecting consistent growth from the ISO channel, but reflecting essentially the law of large numbers. That channel gets ever bigger, so on a percentage growth basis, it's not going to grow at the same rate it may have grown in '13, just as '13 didn't grow the same as '12. In the direct channel, you're familiar with our direct business there, it's going to perform solidly as it has for the last year or 2. No real change in trend there if you're thinking about sort of how should I take my model forward from '13 and into '14. That direct channel includes, of course, our joint venture with Comercia, which performed well in 2013, will continue to execute well in 2014. The gaming business we talk about from time to time is a very nice vertical play in the United States that generally hovers around high-single digit to low-double-digit revenue growth, which should perform again at that same level in 2014 based on our current expectations. We now will fully annualize APT, the acquisition from last year, and we're expecting that to continue to grow in the mid-teens with real operating leverage as well. So all in, in the U.S., we're talking about mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth and operating income or EBIT improvement in the United States as well. So those are the pieces of the U.S. and where we expect growth. When you think about the underlying metrics, while we don't provide forward-looking guidance on things like the operating metrics, we're really not looking for any fundamental sea change and how fast transactions grow or what happens with average tickets, hence what happens with volumes at all the United States. In Canada, we're looking for continued solid metric growth, so transaction growth, fueling volume growth, stable average tickets, and then that's the one market where I would really call out pricing because of what's going to happen from the networks. What already happened from one network, what happens again from the other network come July. So consistent performance of what we saw in Q3 and Q4 with underlying metrics that then results in mid-single-digit revenue growth in local currency. Now if you're doing your model, one thing to keep in mind is Canada's one place that'll likely get hit by currency in 2014. So mid-single-digit revenue growth in local currency there will be ameliorated somewhat by the effect of currency. So let's keep going east and we'll head to Europe, where in United Kingdom, same underlying comment I'd made in the other markets. In the United Kingdom, we have, as you're familiar, a couple of product lines, but the core credit and debit processing business we expect to perform in very similar fashion to the way it performs in 2013. So that's in local currency, mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth. Now that base business will grow and our International Acquiring business. We're acquiring cross-border. Card-not-present transactions will continue to grow well and help fuel that growth as well. In Spain, we're actually looking for, again, mid to high-single-digit growth, once again defying gravity in the Spanish economy with our partner, CaixaBank. Again in Spain though, I would say once more, transaction growth consistent with 2013, helping to drive that. With Russia, we've seen really accelerated high double-digit volume and transaction growth. We expect that still going into '14, but we've brought those expectations down just a hair. Again, the business keeps getting bigger, therefore, expect the exact same percentage growth. We take a couple of points off that as the business gets a little bit bigger, but the same kind of strong double-digit revenue growth we saw in 2013. And then the business in GP remains flat, so very consistent assumption as you're building your model for that business going forward. And then with Asia, it's really the answer I was chatting about with Tien-Tsin just a moment ago, which are that 2013 was a challenge, the comparables are set, the question becomes can we grow over that 2013 comparable with a next-to-better penetration with the existing products, improved distribution? And then can we see just a little bit more stable underlying metrics? And we think we're poised for that as we go into '14. So all in, I don't think there are a lot of surprises if pull apart the guidance with a little lower level of detail for you. It's mid- to high-single-digit growth in North America. It's international growth in total of mid- to high single-digits, which is an amalgam of an awful lot of really nice trends. And then a little bit of a haircut due to FX, adding up to the full range of 6% to 8% year-over-year on total company revenue level.