Earnings Labs

Genuine Parts Company (GPC)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 19, 2020

$105.18

-1.30%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Genuine Parts Company Fourth Quarter Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference over to Sid Jones, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead sir.

Sid Jones

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining us today for the Genuine Parts Company fourth quarter and full year 2019 conference call to discuss our earnings results and outlook for 2020. I’m here with Paul Donahue, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Carol Yancey, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin this morning, please be advised that this call may include certain non-GAAP financial measures, which may be referred to during today’s discussion of our results as reported under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. A reconciliation of these measures is provided in the earnings press release issued this morning, which is also posted in the Investors section of our website. Today’s call may also involve forward-looking statements regarding the company and its businesses. The company’s actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company’s latest SEC filings, including this morning’s press release. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Paul for his remarks.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Thank you, Sid, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2019 conference call. We thank you for taking the time to be with us this morning. Earlier today, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2019 results. I'll make a few remarks on our overall performance and then cover the highlights across our business units. Carol will provide an update on our financial results and our outlook for 2020. After that, we will open the call up your questions. Our financial results in 2019 reflect the positive impact of our strategic growth initiative and continued focus on improving our operating performance, maintaining a strong balance sheet, driving meaningful cash flows, and effective capital allocation. Our strategic growth initiatives drove the third consecutive year of record sales for Genuine Parts Company with positive comp sales and the benefit of several key acquisitions across our automotive and industrial platform. Additionally, to further optimize our portfolio, we streamlined our operations with the sale of several non-core businesses, including Auto Todo in Mexico, EIS, and GCN and Canadian operations of our Business Product Group. In 2019, we also accelerated our initiatives to improve our operating performance. Our team executed well and we were successful in increasing our gross margin rate for the fourth consecutive year. Additionally, in accordance with our cost savings initiatives announced last October, we took action to streamline field management layers, restructured field support operations, and consolidate facilities across the organization. We also continue to assess all areas of the business to identify and act on additional opportunities that increase efficiency and productivity as well as reducing cost. As announced on November 18th, Will Stengel join the company as EVP and Chief Transformation Officer. In his first 90 days, Will has attracted talent and created a disciplined approach to help drive…

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Thank you, Paul. We'll begin with a review of our key financial information and then we will provide our full year outlook for 2020. Total GPC sales of $4.7 billion in the fourth quarter were up 2.2% from 2018 or up approximately 7% excluding the impact of divestitures. These results drove the continued improvement in gross margin up 20 basis points to 33.7% from 33.5% in 2018. For the full year, sales of $19.4 billion increased 3.5% and our gross profit improved 55 basis points to 32.57 from 39.14 in the prior year. The improvement in gross margin for the fourth quarter and full year reflect a variety of factors including the benefit of enhanced pricing strategies and favorable product mix, as well as the favorable impact from acquisitions and divestitures. With the continued efforts in our gross margin initiatives, we expect our 2020 gross margin rate to remain relatively in line with our full year rate for 2019. This sustains reasonable inflation of now more than 1% 2% and consistent levels of volume incentives. In 2019, Automotive and Business Product inflation primarily reflects the impact of tariffs. And while tariffs were not affected for Industrial, this segment experienced approximately 2% price inflation. Throughout 2019, we were successful in passing on the price increases to our customers to protect our gross margin. So, we continue to believe the current of levels of inflation has been a net positive to our results. Specific to tariffs, their impact in the fourth quarter primarily reflects a 25% tariffs on less 133 items although Business Products was also impacted by the 15% tariff on List 4 items that was effective September 1st. As expected, tariffs were approximately 2% of sales for both U.S. Automotive and Business Products in Q4 and in the 1% to…

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Thank you, Carol. We're pleased to perform at the high end of our expectations in the fourth quarter and finished the year with solid results. Allow me to recap the few highlights. We achieved another quarter of positive total sales growth, driven by a 3% plus from sales growth in our U.S. Automotive business, which represents our best comp in five years. So, congratulations go out to our U.S. NAPA team. We further improve the gross margin by 20 basis points in the quarter and by more than 60 basis points for the full year, our fourth consecutive year of improved gross margins. We experienced improving market trends in Europe and reported significantly improved sales comps relative to the second and third quarters. Our Industrial business continue to operate well, generating a 30 basis points improvement in operating margins. We streamlined our operations with the successful divestiture of several non-core business segments. We took action on our initiatives to achieve $100 million in annualized cost savings by the end of 2020. And effective this week, our Board of Directors approved of 64th conservative increase in the dividend, up 4% from 2019. So, as you can see our team has been busy executing on our growth strategy as well as several initiatives to improve our operating results. Combined, these efforts have served to further optimize our portfolio and we expect to continue our strategic transformation in 2020. GPC enters a new year with strategic plans and initiative to drive sales and profit ability, working capital improvement, and significant value for all of our stakeholders. We look forward to updating you on our progress towards these objectives as we move through the year. So, thank you for listening. And with that, we'll turn back to the operator, and Carol and I will take your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers of JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning everybody.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Good morning.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Good morning, Chris.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

So wanted to start with the comp acceleration in U.S. NAPA, which is impressive in light of what we've seen from your peers with generally seeing deceleration. Can you talk about where you saw that? Maybe break that down between DIY and do-it-for-me? You did mention promotional effectiveness in December around the weather that would seem to me like that's more of a DIY versus commercial benefit. But sure -- wanted to get your thoughts there? And any comment in terms of was there any incremental inflation benefit that you kept in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter?

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Well. Okay, Chris thanks for the question. I I'll do my best to cover all this point and maybe have Carol weigh in on a bit of an inflation discussion. You know, you mentioned commercial versus retail, our commercial business was solid. Our two big programs, Major Accounts, AutoCare both were inline with our overall commercial sales in the quarter, which was up significantly over 2018. So we're pleased with our commercial business and our retail business was solid as well. You mentioned the promotional activities Chris, so we had set out really to focus on all three of our big sales channels, retail, commercial as well as online. And I think that some of the initiatives that we put into play maybe be offset the impact of some of the mild camps we saw hit the business in December -- October, November still -- the weather was still fairly favorable. December and January, obviously, have done a good bit. Warmer they're taking a bit of a toll on some of our more seasonal categories. But our hard parts business remains solid and we're pleased with the performance of our U.S. automotive business in the quarter.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

And just a comment on the tariff impact for automotive business in the quarter. It was as expected about 2% related to tariffs. And so the second half being at 2%, first half at 1% gave us a blended 1.5% for 2019. And then just as a reminder as we go into 2020, we'll anniversary some of that. So we're looking for maybe a first half of 1% and a blended half a point for the full year. And that excludes any further inflation.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Got it. I'm not sure of -- again maybe as you think about relative to the third quarter you saw acceleration clearly in both sides of the business really impressive. But did you see more in DIY? Or did you see more in commercial? Any insights there?

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Certainly I would say our commercial outperformed our retail, Chris even though both were solid. And we continue to rollout our impact store initiatives to now we're – now working closely with our independent owners. But commercial both AutoCare and Major Accounts have performed well. You haven't asked about originality Chris, but I'll touch on it as I'm sure some will ask the – we saw really strong growth up in the north, certainly in the central part of the United States, Midwest. Our Mountain team had a really solid quarter. Where we saw some of the softness was out west, as well as in the Northeast part of the U.S.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Got it. And then as you think about 2020, you gave guidance for the overall automotive division. How are you thinking about the U.S. NAPA business? And any comments on how the weather is impacted your business quarter-to-date and how it could – how that could sort of way on the year overall?

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Yes. Well, Chris, as it relates to the weather just to make a comment that we’ve got a fairly diversified business model and really if you start to break our business apart only about 30% of our total revenues would really be susceptible to U.S. weather patterns. The industrial business, the Business Products Group, Europe, Australia, look we track weather we track weather around the world. I'm looking at floods in the U. K. and mild winter in Europe, record heat in Australia. So we look at whether around the world. And honestly, I tend not to dwell on it that much anymore since there's not a heck of a lot we can do about it. We're six weeks into the New Year, Chris. We'll see some ebbs and flows throughout the year. But I would tell you as we sit right now, we're confident in our full year guidance for automotive.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

And Chris, we are implying a comp increase for our U.S. business in 2020 of around 2% to 3%, which is very consistent with what we saw for 2019. And that's what we've modeled into our guidance.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Got you. And one last one. I'm not sure if you have this but Carol, do you – can you help us out with, so there's a lot going on with acquisitions and divestitures sizable ones. Can you just help us, as we think about 2020 versus what you just reported for 2019, what's the net impact at the operating profit and operating margin line from the mixture of everything that's going on? I'm not sure, if you have that but clearly I think you got some rate benefit but maybe some profit dollar loss. So help us reconcile that. Thanks so much.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Yes. That for 2019, the core business if you will was without the impact of the acquisitions and divestitures was something around at $0.20 is what was factored in there.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

$0.20 headwind?

Carol Yancey

Analyst

You're talking about 2019 Or 2020?

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

2020 versus 2019?

Carol Yancey

Analyst

I'm sorry. I was – for 2020 – and that's – I'm sorry for that. But for 2020, we have implied, we will have operating margin improvement in our automotive and industrial businesses. And we have implied a 20 basis points improvement in our operating margin that largely relates to the cost reductions that we talked about and the work that the transformation office is doing. And that would be what would be in our numbers for 2020 and it would obviously be greater than that going into 2021. So that excludes all the impact from acquisitions and divestitures.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Got it. Thanks so much. Best of luck.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Thanks. Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of the Liz Suzuki of Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thank you. First, I just wanted to ask about capital allocation priorities in 2020. I know you laid out the four bucket there. But it seems like you're kind of taking down the debt levels a little bit despite very low interest rates. So I was curious, if a large acquisition opportunity came up that would be in the auto or the industrial business, where you might have to lever up a little bit to do it. Do you have a threshold to which you would aim to keep that leverage?

Carol Yancey

Analyst · your question.

Yeah. That's a great question. As you know, we have certainly taken our leverage up and we're definitely comfortable in the 2.5 to 3 times indefinitely for the right acquisition opportunity. That is something that -- when we think about a larger more strategic acquisition opportunity, those are things that you can always control. The timing, there's nothing in the horizon right now. We'll continue with our bolt-ons which are probably in the 1% to 2% range, as we look ahead. So we think the leverage that we have right now comfortable with that we know we have flexibility as we look ahead. And we would again just take into account what we already have coming into our numbers for 2020. We have a carryover impact to this is pretty nice -- on acquisition. So probably more of just the bolt-ons just for 2020.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thank you. And I'll just take on one more if you wouldn't mind. Did you guys -- I may have missed this and did you talk about transaction growth versus average ticket in the U.S. auto business? And how that's been trending versus the last couple of quarters?

Paul Donahue

Analyst · your question.

No, Liz. I did not cover that. But it's a similar trend as we'd seen over the last few quarters, which is, nice growth in Q4 in our invoice in the size of our invoices. So nice mid-single-digit growth with a slight decrease in the number of invoices per store per day.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst · your question.

Great. Thank you.

Paul Donahue

Analyst · your question.

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Matt McClintock of Raymond James. Please proceed with your questions.

Matt McClintock

Analyst

Hi. Yes. Good morning, everyone.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Good morning.

Matt McClintock

Analyst

I was wondering, you bought up the impact project and you have now done that in 200 independents. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit of color or update us on what you saw in those independents in terms of lift, et cetera, in 2019. And then how quickly can you accelerate that, the adoption of new independents, should you decide that this is where from -- were of continued efforts. Thanks.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Great question, Matt. This has been a multi-year project for us. We're at -- between the last couple of years we've done over a couple of hundred of our independent stores. And it's a comprehensive upgrade. It's everything from extending store hours; improving the retail storefront, changing out some of the product assortment. Probably one of the most important aspects of the program is adding business development managers in the stores as well. So we're expecting to ramp this project up in 2020. And actually looking for 300-plus stores in 2020, on the independent side. We fully completed and rolled out our company-owned store group and we are seeing some significant increases over our typical run rate when we do the full impact program.

Matt McClintock

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that color. And then if I could have one more. Just on coronavirus, understand that for the Industrial business probably limited impact of new supply chain. But I suspect there's probably potential meaningful impact on your customer supply chains and that could lead to less activity. Just wondering I know this is a tough question to ask, but you're probably at a better position to give us color or help us to conceptualize how the impact on your customers' supply chains will actually flow through to your own topline? Any color there at all would be helpful from a derivative standpoint or a secondary standpoint. Thanks.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Yes. Matt look it is -- as you know and it is a tough question because it's an incredibly fluid situation. We've been on the phone only with all of our business unit heads talking about not really our own supply chain which I covered in my prepared comments, but also some of our good customers as well. I would tell you it's early. We have not felt any downward pressure on our numbers from our customers at this point, but I would tell you that we are staying incredibly close to it and will continue to monitor the situation.

Matt McClintock

Analyst

Thanks for that color. I know it's hard, appreciate it.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Yes. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro of Stephens Inc. Please proceed with your questions.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst · your questions.

Hey good morning guys. Thanks for taking our questions.

Carol Yancey

Analyst · your questions.

Good morning.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst · your questions.

Paul would love to hear your update on the European market. I think you noted a growth return of relatively flat year-over-year. Pretty nice sequential proven. Can you talk about what the primary drivers of that will maybe industry versus company specific and kind of how you're thinking about that growth as we head into 2020?

Paul Donahue

Analyst · your questions.

Yes. Thanks Daniel. We're quite pleased with the progress we've made with our European business. We had no doubt a tough Q2 and Q3 in Europe. What's interesting as you dive into those numbers, they're different markets. So, Q2, our French team and a challenging quarter; Q3, our U.K team had a challenging quarter. Both rebounded nicely in Q4 to get us to flat overall comp. Germany on the other hand showed growth in Q4, which certainly we were pleased to see. I would tell you that from our perspective, our team in 2018 and in the first half of 2019, they were very focused on integrating this business and doing all the things necessary to bring a privately-held European business under the umbrella of the U.S. publicly-traded company. I would tell you that that focus now has shifted in the second half of 2019 and as you going to 2020 more on growing this business, taking market share, and doing other things that this business has been for the past 30 years. So, despite some remaining complicated economic issues and some of those markets, we are certainly more bullish going into 2020 just because our team is focused on all the right things and focused on driving market share and growing our business.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst · your questions.

Got it. And as a follow-up on that. It sounds like looking for more growth over there, that should I would think lead the margin leverage given the weaken sales led to deleverage last year. But Carol I think your answer just said most of the auto expansion should come from cost-cutting. So, how do I reconcile maybe those two statements? And what kind of impacts should be expected Europe to have on the automotive operating margin in 2020?

Carol Yancey

Analyst · your questions.

Yeah. So for our automotive business and as Paul mentioned, their comps were down something around 3% for the full year, and in the fourth quarter about 40 bps of the 50 bp decline in our automotive margin was Europe and then other smaller impact was due to the slowdown in Canada in Q4. When you look at the full year, we would say that all of the decrease in the automotive margin was Europe, so stronger margin, obviously, in our U.S. business and Australasia business. So when we look ahead and remember that team started on their cost cutting in Q2 and they have been working very hard. And we actually saw some progress on -- in the second half of the year and we're certainly seeing further improvement that will come in 2020. We're modeling the comps of up 1% to up 2% for Europe in 2020. And with all the cost reductions that they've done and the further changes they made at the end of the year that gives them a flattish margin in 2020 and certainly as we look ahead, we would see that to be improved in 2021 and beyond.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst · your questions.

Got it. And then maybe my last follow-up. Carol, just switching to the industrial site. I think you said the outlook calls for 2% or 3% growth, which includes slightly positive comps. One, did I hear that correctly? And two, what do you think the cadence of that growth should look like given -- you noted the recent infection higher in PMI and some of the leading indicators? Thanks.

Carol Yancey

Analyst · your questions.

Yeah. So the 2% to 3% for the industrial outlook for 2020 and I would tell you, you have to remember to take into account that excludes the EIS amount. So the 2% to 3% implies something of 1.5% to down 2% comp. And I would tell you that that is primarily our Motion, North American business, probably more so in the first half, a little weaker, hopefully a little bit better in the second half. Our Australasian business and Inenco, they have comps of around up 2% in 2020. So we've implied something of a 1.5% to down 2% for 2020. Having said that, again with the cost reductions and the work that the transmission team is doing and the work that that business has done all-in 2019, they will have some operating margin improvement in 2020 despite having comps down 1.5% to 2%. So the team's done a great job in that area as we look ahead.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst · your questions.

Got it. Best of luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Bret Jordan of Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

Bret Jordan

Analyst · your questions.

Hi, good morning guys.

Paul Donahue

Analyst · your questions.

Good morning, Bret.

Bret Jordan

Analyst · your questions.

Carol, I might have missed this, but did you talk about how you've done on the payable side on the AAG business?

Carol Yancey

Analyst · your questions.

We have not. And it's a great question Bret. We -- while you didn't necessarily see the impact directly in our Q4 working capital. I would tell you with the introduction of the private label and some of the works that our global procurement teams have done, they were able to achieve about $50 million in working capital improvements in 2019, and then we look ahead in 2020, we think we'll have another $50 million. And those are even greater than just Europe because we’re getting some global savings, global working capital savings as well. And then on the other side, we are definitely on track and we will have our $25 million of procurement gross margin synergies by the end of 2020. And we were right on track with that as well. And that does not take into account the implied income statement benefit on these payable terms. So we've implied that in our 2020 working capital guidance to see that $100 million-plus coming into 2020.

Bret Jordan

Analyst · your questions.

Okay. Great. And then I guess, when you look at Europe, what is the private label mix over there? And I think Paul called out some real strength in the U.K. battery business in the fourth quarter. I think they have had a mild winter. Are you guys doing something differently there on the promotional side or market share shifts that you're seeing?

Paul Donahue

Analyst · your questions.

Well, to your first question Bret, the private label market in Europe is minimal. And AAG, our business there, they had a number of different private labels in different product categories. But it was certainly not an impactful part of their overall product mix. We have launched the NAPA brand now and in a few categories in the U. K, we're in the process of rolling that into Germany – I mean, into France and ultimately into the Netherlands. We're quite pleased with the acceptance we’re seeing from our customers and you know, we have a separate battery business in the U.K. Bret that we acquired 12 to 18 months ago, called Platinum. And it is a strong player in the U.K. in the battery business. So it's a part of AAG, but that would account for some of the strength that we’re seeing in and again, they've gotten behind the NAPA logo and the NAPA brand and are doing quite well. So we're pleased. And our goal will be to roll that NAPA brand across Europe.

Bret Jordan

Analyst · your questions.

Okay. So the U. K. strength is more your strategy in the U.K. and not the category in the U.K.?

Paul Donahue

Analyst · your questions.

Correct. That would be accurate.

Bret Jordan

Analyst · your questions.

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next quarter comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Seth Basham

Analyst

Thanks a lot and good morning.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Good morning, Seth.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Good morning.

Seth Basham

Analyst

My question just reverting to the U.S. NAPA business. Can you give a sense of cadence for the comps through the quarter? And how your thinking about that cadence of comps through 2020? That would be helpful.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Yes. The cadence for the quarter Seth, if I look at GPC in total automotive, we're pretty steady throughout the quarter with actually November and December, slightly stronger than October. Automotive trended positive, U.S. automotive trended positive really every month with a solid December, probably unlike some of the other reports that we've heard but we did find in December, and again I think part of that goes back to some of the initiatives that our team launched in the quarter. I mean in the month and in the quarter. As I look across 2020, hard to say Seth, we again I mentioned earlier, we're we only six weeks into the year. We're going to see ebbs and flows as we go. But one thing we are encouraged is we're seeing some really cold weather hit the Midwest this week and looks like some big snow up in the Northeast. So that will blow out a lot of the inventory that's sitting in our customers shelves and hopefully propel us into a better spring.

Seth Basham

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And then as a follow-up question. You guys have been doing a great job on gross margins with improvement for the past four years. You talk to a flattish gross margins in 2020. Can you just help us understand why we're likely to see a slowdown in that progress?

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Yes. I would say that our team has done a great job, especially in the tariff environment and really pleased to see it across the automotive and industrial businesses. A lot of our pricing strategies and a lot of our supply chain initiatives we're doing, we believe there still is some opportunities for that to increase. We're just sort of modeling flattish and maybe a bit of improvement. Now, remember, some of the improvement this year is related to the net improvement from acquisitions and also, honestly, acquisitions and divestitures. So some of it is coming from that, which we would anniversary that next year.

Seth Basham

Analyst

Understood. Thank you very much and good luck.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Thanks, Seth.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Scot Ciccarelli of RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

Hey, guys. It's Scot Ciccarelli. So a question on kind of the 2020 guidance. I guess, I'm trying to understand your expectations for, let's call it, core margins in auto and industrial versus what's the impact from cost-reduction action? So like, if you were to kind of take a step back, would you expect kind of core auto and industrial to have flat core margins? And the 20 basis point lift for the full year comes from layering in those cost efforts? Or are you expecting some deterioration because of the low top line growth? But it's more than made up for the cost reductions. I think that will help everyone understand kind of the cadence for both 2020 and then how these trends may roll through into 2021? Thanks.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Yes. So as we mentioned, when you look at our automotive and industrial business, we are implying operating margin improvement there. That is coming from - the majority of that is coming from improvements in their cost savings. So you would say, without the cost savings it would've been more like flat. I would tell you, what we're really pleased to see is, especially like in the automotive business, for example, with comps of 2% to 3%, we're able to leverage and improve operating margin for the first time in a couple of years. So, again, this cost reduction and the transformation that we're talking about is giving us something better than a flattish margin with some of these low comps. And remember, the industrial businesses got a comp of down 1.5% to down 2%. And yet, they will, as well, have operating margin improvement. What you - and this gets back to the gross margin thing, you're going to see that more in the SG&A line. And that's why we've kind of implied a flattish gross margin with our improvement coming through SG&A.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And so, as you kind of think about the amount of cost savings that flow through - that you actually capture in 2020, because it's a run rate by the end of 2020 that gets you to $100 million. You're capturing, what, about half, kind of $40 million to $45 million, would be my estimate?

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Yes. That's reasonable. The $100 million in saving is about 2% decrease in our SG&A. So we're modeling about half of that in our AG&A, about a 1% decrease. And so, then again, as you look ahead in 2021 we would have the full benefit of that. And the other thing I'd mention, our transformation office and transmission team, they're hard at identifying other opportunities. So we're not just stopping with this first lift, if you will, of the $100 million. They've got a pretty exciting packet with all of our businesses and a team that's working on a lot of new initiatives that we hope to be able to speak about in the quarters ahead.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

Yes. All makes sense. Thanks a lot guys.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Thank you, Scot.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Chris Bottiglieri of Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your questions.

Chris Bottiglieri

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. Just want to follow up on Scott's question for a bit. So that $40 million to $45 million that you're anticipating for 2020, what is like the cadence of that? Seems like you've taken a lot of non-GAAP cost in Q4 which I think would mean the cost of taking out of this point. But wanted to get a sense of cadence of how we see the cost takeouts planning throughout the year?

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Yes. I mean I guess it would be -- we did -- you're right -- and remember a majority of these first round of the $100 million, the majority of that is headcount because as you know 60%, 65% of our SG&A is headcount. So, with the payroll -- we did recognize those costs in Q4, the payroll start to -- you start to see that into Q1, but you definitely some of the other things will come a little bit later in the year. So, that's why we have some of the initiatives that come maybe in Q2 through Q4. So, it's not exactly divided by four quarters. But again as we've got some facilities, some consolidation amongst branches and operations those would come later in the year.

Chris Bottiglieri

Analyst

Got you. Okay. And then more of a longer term question, as you have the dependence on making it a necessary store-up on investments to position their businesses to the future. Have you been to kind of rethink your long-term store potential? Do you still expect the majority of your stores will be independently owned versus company-owned or do you foresee the opportunity for some of these conversations to precipitate like higher store ownership of the company?

Paul Donahue

Analyst

Yes. Interesting question Chris. We -- look we're always evaluating our store models and store mix. Today of our 6,000 stores, roughly 5,000 are independently owned. We've had that mix for a number of years. We do not see any massive shift here in the quarters or even a year or two to come. We've got some great independent owners who are investing in their business, expanding their business. We have owners coming into our model all the time and so at this rate -- at this point in time, Chris, there is no strategy to shift to a 50/50 mix per se of independent and company stores. We're pleased with the progress. We're pleased with some of the new talent that will bring into our independent store group. I would also tell you that it is our intent to expand our company store group and to continue to open new company-owned stores and if you look at our recent history, Chris, we've closed a number of underperforming and non-profitable stores. We think a good bit of that heavy lifting while there is always some of that to be done, a good bit of that is now behind us and it's our intent to grow our company-owned store base from here going forward.

Chris Bottiglieri

Analyst

Got you. That's really helpful. Thank you for the time.

Paul Donahue

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back quarter management for any closing marks.

Carol Yancey

Analyst

We'd like to thank you for your participation in today's year end conference call. We appreciate your support and investment in Genuine Parts Company and we look forward to reporting out on our Q1 results. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.