Neil Bowden
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Beth. First, I'll review our fourth quarter financial results and then discuss our plans for fiscal '26. As a headline, Q4 was a notably stronger quarter for us against the deteriorating consumer backdrop and challenging global trade environment. In spite of these factors, we delivered consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter of $385 million, up 7% or 4% on a constant currency basis from the fourth quarter in fiscal '24. D2C revenue increased to $314 million, up 12% year-over-year, including comparable D2C sales growth of 7%. Operating performance in our stores and e-commerce channels around the world was strong, with North America leading the pack, building on momentum that started in the back half of Q3 that has continued into fiscal '26. In the wholesale channel, in Q4, revenue declined more year-over-year as we compared against the later shipping window in EMEA in fiscal '24. For the full year, we performed ahead of our expectations of a 20% decline, reporting an 18% decline for the year. This was primarily the result of better in-season reorders, particularly in APAC, where our travel retail business is strengthening. We ended the year with channel inventory in a much healthier position and with better commercial alignment with our partners. Revenue in our other channel was down year-over-year as we held fewer friends and family events in the period. As you've heard, we're satisfied with our inventory position at the end of fiscal '25, which has been improved through brand right strategies in this channel. Earlier, Carrie provided the regional performance highlights, and I'll reiterate a few key points now. First, D2C comp performance improved materially in every region from our results in Q3 and over the first 9 months of fiscal '25. In Q4, North America D2C comparable sales growth was 17% and 4% for the full year. In EMEA, D2C comparable sales growth was 4%, but negative 7% for the full year. And in APAC, D2C comparable sales growth was flat and negative 10% for the full year. APAC was comping against a particularly strong Q4 of fiscal '24 as a reminder. If we double-click into the markets, we saw a strong performance everywhere throughout the quarter with two exceptions, Greater China and the U.K., both saw slower traffic as a result of a more difficult consumer sentiment and in both cases, conversion improved. As we move down the P&L, let's turn to gross profit, which increased 18%, exceeding the pace of revenue growth. Gross margin expanded by 620 basis points in the quarter to 71.3% and 69.9% for the full year, up 110 basis points over the previous fiscal year and ahead of our expectations. Though results for Q4 and the full year share similar reasons. First, the benefit of a higher proportion of D2C revenue; second, lower inventory provisioning in the current year against somewhat higher provisions in Q4 of fiscal '24 related to our e-commerce business; and third, the modest benefit of pricing. Growth in our apparel category delivered incremental gross profit dollars at a slightly lower gross margin, which somewhat offset items positively impacting gross margin during the quarter. Adjusted EBIT for Q4 was $60 million up 49% year-over-year. Adjusted EBIT margin was 15.5%, a 430 basis point expansion year-over-year compared to 11.2% last year. Gross profit improvement in the quarter and a disciplined approach to corporate expenses delivered meaningful year-over-year adjusted EBIT improvement in the period despite the increased costs of operating a larger store network, investments in our product creation capabilities and larger marketing investments. With positive D2C comparable sales and discipline on controllable SG&A, we delivered operating margin improvement, reflecting the power of our business model when the right elements come together. For the full year, adjusted EBIT was $171 million compared to $172 million in fiscal '24, representing a modest decline in operating margin. While this was below our original plan, we are pleased to see that we have been able to navigate the pressure on D2C comparable sales performance, the intentional rationalization of our wholesale order book and planned investments in our design and merchandising teams and marketing expenditures. As Beth mentioned earlier, we are disappointed to have deleveraging our SG&A line in fiscal '25. Our plan for the year contemplated SG&A leverage as a path to operating margin expansion, which was based on higher levels of revenue growth at the beginning of our peak season than we delivered. Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders was $32 million or $0.33 per diluted share compared to $19.3 million or $0.19 per diluted share in Q4 fiscal '24. For the full year, adjusted net income attributable to shareholders per diluted share was $1.12, an improvement of $0.13 or growth of 13% compared to fiscal '24. Turning to our balance sheet. As Beth mentioned earlier, inventory decreased 14% year-over-year, a material improvement directly resulting from a disciplined inventory management throughout fiscal '25. We're well positioned for fiscal '26 with inventory strategically positioned in key markets, providing flexibility amid global trade challenges. The resulting cash flow generation from working capital improvement and operating performance added $189 million more cash at the end of the fiscal year, leading to a net debt improvement of a similar amount. Net debt leverage on a trailing 12-month basis improved to 1.3x adjusted EBITDA from 2.0x adjusted EBITDA a year ago. We started fiscal '26 in a strong liquidity position that provides flexibility to make strategic investments while maintaining an efficient capital structure. Our capital allocation priorities remain focused on driving shareholder value in the medium and long term. First, by investing in organic growth opportunities central to long-term value creation such as brand and product development and expanding our retail network. Secondly, enhancing the business' foundational needs, including upgrading our technology; and third, maintaining an efficient capital structure. Now turning to fiscal '26. There is no doubt that it has been a very turbulent period over these past several months, giving rise to material changes in the global trading environment. With changes occurring frequently and with limited line of sight to the impact of these changes on the economy and consumer health, at this time, we do not believe it is prudent to provide a financial outlook for the year. Specifically on trade duties and tariffs, and we have heard the questions of how we are impacted a number of times, I want to be clear about two things. First, as a global business, tariffs are a reality of life and have been for a while. We have navigated through them successfully. And as you heard Beth say, the newly implemented tariffs are not material to the fiscal '26 financial plans directly. However, and secondly, the indirect effect of these actions on the global economy and changing landscape create greater uncertainty for us, especially as we are months away from our peak revenue periods, and the situation has changed frequently over the past several months. As you will expect, we are closely monitoring these dynamics and maintaining operational flexibility to respond as needed with a healthy balance sheet and liquidity position. Where we do have clarity, however, is in what will create the greatest medium- and long-term value for our business and controlling those things that we can control. Before I turn it over to the operator, I'd like to recap what you've heard from us today in terms of our operating imperatives for fiscal '26. First, building brand heat through focused marketing investment. As Carrie mentioned, when we invest boldly in brand moments, we see a direct commercial impact. This year, we will strategically increase marketing investment and emphasize upper funnel activities to drive brand resonance, balancing near-term performance with long-term value creation. Our plan for fiscal '26 is to ensure that the marketing activities will cover the full year which we know from our experience in fiscal '25 is the plan we need to drive those commercial outcomes that we've just seen over the past 6 months. Based on that, we are confident this year's investment will bring a significant return, but given the shift up the marketing funnel are not planning for the full benefit to be realized within the year. Second, expanding our product offering to enhance year-round relevance. Product and category newness is resonating with down-filled outerwear, seeing growth and apparel remaining our fastest-growing category in both the quarter and fiscal '25. Our expanded design teams in Paris and Toronto are accelerating new product development across multiple categories, responding to consumer demand, while shortening our go-to-market cycle. Pricing changes will be made imminently. We are planning for modest increases on carryover styles with some more strategic pricing on newness as we build category depth and assortment width. Third, driving business expansion through strategic channel development. Our second half of fiscal '25 delivered solid improvements in D2C comparable sales and conversion rates with this positive trajectory continuing into the first quarter of fiscal '26. We have more work to do here, and we're committed to building on this foundation with specific performance metrics to track and drive our progress throughout fiscal '26, and on that, we will keep you posted. Capital deployment this year is focused on investing in critical markets like Paris and Milan, where we expect high returns over time, and our total net store opening plans will exceed fiscal '25 levels. Finally, operating efficiently with pace and accountability. We are enhancing operational efficiency through improved inventory turnover and disciplined SG&A management, particularly in corporate overhead as we scale revenue. To close out today's remarks, I want to emphasize that our fiscal '25 performance, particularly in the second half of the year demonstrated the strength of our brand and the effectiveness of our strategy when well executed. Despite market uncertainties, our strategy positions us for sustainable growth and enhanced shareholder value creation while deepening our connection with consumers around the globe. On behalf of the senior leadership team, I want to thank our teams around the world for their dedication and hard work throughout fiscal '25, and we are excited about what fiscal '26 will bring for Canada Goose. With that, I'll turn the call over to our operator for questions. Operator, you can open the line.