Jonathan Sinclair
Analyst · Robert Ohmes from Bank of America
Thank you, Dani, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with our first quarter performance, characterized by strong top line growth. Revenue for the first quarter was $84.8 million, up 21% year-over-year or 18% on a constant currency basis, above the high end of our guidance range. Growth was driven by healthy demand for our products across our priority markets. DTC sales of $55.8 million grew 60% or 54% on a constant currency basis from the same period last year and that arose from continued retail store expansion and an increase in existing store sales. DTC revenue was 66% of total sales in Q1 compared to 50% in the same period last year as we optimized the greater DTC share within our channel mix. Consistent with our strategy over many years, we are intentionally shifting our proportion of channel revenue to sell directly to our end consumers. The right mix between DTC and wholesale channels positions us to capture new customers and retain existing ones with optimal unit economics. Q1 wholesale revenue of $27.1 million was down 18% year-over-year or 19% on a constant currency basis, that primarily arises from the streamlining of our wholesale partners. Even so this was above our plan due to earlier shipments to customers. We're concentrating our efforts on serving our top accounts that are brand accretive and positioning us within our target segments. Similar to others in the sector, we noted caution amongst the wholesale community, which is reflected in our order book. Q1 revenue increased across our key regions year-over-year as more customers shopped at our stores in North America, APAC and EMEA. North America revenue was up 24% to $41.6 million, up 20% on a constant currency basis, driven by continued retail expansion and an increase in existing store sales. Canada DTC comparable growth was faster than the US, up by double digits in most stores. This indicates continued brand momentum in our most established markets, which benefited from a return to tourism. The US experienced 15% year-over-year growth from existing and new store sales. We saw a higher proportion of new and existing consumers entering our non-heavyweight down categories and demonstrating significantly higher interest in apparel. We also gained traction with women in the US, which is one of our top markets for this segment. Share of revenue increased within the country's mix compared to the same period last year with our rain, everyday and lightweight down pieces resonating with women. Our progress in Q1 further strengthens our belief in our long term US retail expansion strategy, while also continuing to grow DTC comps as we continue to navigate the uncertain economic environment. Turning to Asia-Pacific. This region had a stellar quarter with revenue increasing 52% year-over-year to $24.5 million, up 43% on a constant currency basis. We saw broad based growth across each buck key markets, including Mainland China where lifting of COVID restrictions has led to a strong rebound in domestic spending in stores, as well as in e-commerce. As Dani mentioned, we had especially strong performance in our stores in our ex-Mainland China Asia-Pacific markets with the return of Chinese tourism. Our stores in Japan also saw strong growth this quarter led by domestic and tourist demand. It's worth reminding you that there maybe significant upside to our top and bottom line should Chinese tourism return to a more normalized level in the West this year as we've not considered this in our guidance. Asia-Pacific consumers continued to purchase our non-heavyweight down offerings, such as apparel and accessories, which grew triple digits this quarter over the same period last year in the region. Finally, EMEA revenue was down 7% year-over-year to $18.7 million or 6% down on a constant currency basis as lower wholesale revenue was partially offset by growth in our DTC channel. Our stores have continued to benefit from more tourism from the US, from the Middle East and more recently from China. Most of our European stores registered double digit comparable sales growth year-over-year in Q1 as they benefited from a more normalized operating environment. Despite the hot weather, our heavyweight down collections saw notable growth in EMEA in the quarter, almost doubling as compared to the same quarter last year, as more wholesalers gravitate to our iconic offerings. Given the outsized impact of wholesale in the region, it was most impacted by the dynamic in our wholesale order book. Moving to gross profit. First quarter gross profit grew 29% year-over-year to $55.2 million, primarily driven by higher revenue and gross margin expansion. Q1 gross margin increased 400 basis points to 65.1% compared to last year due to a higher mix of DTC sales as well as favorable product mix and pricing. The increase in the gross margin of our products was seen across all categories with non-heavyweight down outpacing margin expansion of our established heavyweight down segment. DTC gross margin expanded to 73% in Q1 while wholesale gross margins increased to 51%, up 40 and 30 basis points respectively compared to the first quarter of last year. Gross margins were favorably impacted by pricing product mix due to the higher proportion of heavyweight down sales and lower freight costs. These margins are entirely consistent with our long term expectations of mid-70s DTC and mid to high-40s wholesale gross margins on an annual basis. The adjusted EBIT loss increase to $91.1 million compared to Q1 of last year. That primarily arises from increased SG&A expenses. Our adjusted EBIT loss in the quarter was favorable compared to our first quarter guidance range, mainly as a result of strong revenue growth. SG&A increased 24% year-over-year to $154.9 million, largely associated with higher costs associated with the expansion of our retail network and strategic investments in technology and across our transformation program, which we expect will enable operational efficiencies across the organization to support sustainable growth and profitability. Adjusted net loss attributable shareholders was $73.1 million and an adjusted loss of $0.70 per basic share. Moving to our balance sheet. We ended Q1 of fiscal '24 with inventory of $522.1 million, up 3% from $504.7 million at the end of the same period last year. As expected, year-over-year growth in inventory decelerated for the second consecutive quarter as we more closely aligned the supply of products with anticipated demand and utilized the evergreen product we have on hand. During our first quarter, we stopped production at one of our two Montreal facilities, consolidating production into our other facilities. We also brought more production in-house to introduce greater flexibility and improve overhead leverage. In Q1, approximately 75% of our domestically produced jackets were manufactured in-house compared to 58% in the fourth quarter of fiscal '23. We expect the planned deceleration of inventory growth and a shift to in-house production to continue to support further gross margin expansion. During the first quarter, we bought back approximately 1.16 million shares for a total cash consideration of $26.3 million ending the quarter with $48 million of cash on our balance sheet compared to $81.8 million at the end of quarter one fiscal '23. Since the commencement of our buyback program, the NCIB, we have repurchased 2.7 million shares or approximately 50% of the amount authorized under this program. We're very comfortable with net debt average of 2.7 times adjusted EBITDA at the end of the quarter. In Q1, we extended our revolving facility through 2028, solidifying the balance sheet. Canada Goose is investing across multiple fronts to position ourselves for long term growth, represented by our three strategic pillars and our transformation program, the latter of which we expect will strengthen our foundation and add greater efficiencies into our operating model to support long term growth and the associated margin expansion. In Q1, we laid the groundwork for our transformation program and are now focused on beginning implementation across a number of initiatives, including enhancing store productivity and optimizing production and procurement. Stay tuned for further updates on this front as we advance these initiatives into implementation. Turning to our outlook. We had a strong first quarter and are pleased with the progress we have made to achieve our full year plans. Our outlook contemplates an uncertain macroeconomic environment together with foreign currency volatility. We continue to plan against a range of scenarios and our guidance represents our assessment of market conditions and the most likely consumer impacts. Our fiscal '24 outlook assumes continued momentum in Asia Pacific balanced with a more challenged consumer backdrop in the US as noted by others in the sector. Our priorities for fiscal '24 remain unchanged. We intend to continue investing in our strategic pillars and of course in our transformation program to build for the long run. We remain confident that this is the right path to achieve sustainable growth and improved profitability. As such, we are reiterating our full year fiscal 24 guidance. We expect total revenue to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for the full year. Our revenue guidance assumes DTC revenue in the mid to high-70s as a percentage of total revenue, driven by mid single digits to mid-teens comp sales growth and continued store expansion as we continue to plan to open at least [16] new permanent stores in the year of which four are already open. We also continue to expect wholesale revenue to decrease by 6% year-over-year as we maintain our visibility over our order book and our delivery comprising the vast majority of the year’s wholesale business. We expect non-IFRS adjusted EBIT to be in the range of $210 million to $240 million in fiscal '24, representing an operating margin in the range of 15% to 16%. This assumes gross margin percentage to be in the high-60s on a full year basis with DTC and wholesale gross margins in the mid-70s and mid to high-40s respectively. We are not including any benefits from the transformation program in the fiscal '24 guidance. We expect non-IFRS adjusted net income per diluted share in the range of $1.20 to $1.48. This assumes an effective tax rate in the low-20s as a percentage of income before taxes and weighted average diluted shares outstanding of 106.3 million for fiscal '24. Consistent with this annual guidance, our guidance for Q2 is as follows. We expect revenue to be in the range of $270 million to $290 million. Our revenue range reflects the earlier shipments of wholesale orders that took place in Q1 that will no longer be included in Q2. We expect non-IFRS adjusted EBIT to be in the range of $20 million to $30 million loss, reflecting the impact of us expanded store network in the summer quarter in terms both of the number of new stores we are operating and the number of stores we're planning to open in our second quarter, as well as the planned timing of marketing spend, which is later this year than last. We expect non-IFRS adjusted net loss per basic share to be in the range of $0.17 to $0.24. In conclusion, we had a strong start to the year. More new and existing customers are returning to our stores. We're showing up in more places and people love our products. Customers are shopping with Canada Goose seeking the very best in craftsmanship, style and performance. We're pleased with the progress we've made across all fronts in our first quarter to position us well for long term growth and improving profitability as we continue to execute against our strategic pillars and our reiterated annual guidance. With that operator, please open up the lines for questions.