Jonathan Sinclair
Analyst · Jonathan Komp with Baird
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Canada Goose is off to a great start to fiscal 2022. Looking at our Q1 results and outlook, there are three key themes that stand out. Firstly, alongside reopenings and improving retail trends, our digital business has continued a rapid pace of growth. Secondly, the flexibility of our supply chain and DTC distribution are incredible assets for navigating a dynamic environment. Thirdly, looking beyond [Technical Difficulty], we have the building blocks for significant upside in our profitability. Starting with the top line. Total Q1 revenue came in at $56 million, helped by lower level of disruptions in both channels. At the channel level, DTC revenue was $29 million. We lapped the peak of first wave closures with a more operational but still impacted store base. Across our network, we lost approximately 20% of total trading days compared to 60% last year. This was complemented by outstanding digital growth against a meaningful comparative base. Global ecommerce revenue increased by 81% with a continuation of the broad-based growth we saw in Q4. Canada led the way in North America with a high 70s growth rate, along with 40s level in the United States where all stores were open throughout the quarter. EMEA and APAC both had low triple digit growth rates. In Europe, the U.K. was a particularly significant contributor as was mainland China in APAC. In wholesale, revenue was $26 million. Our growth was due to a near total shutdown of shipments last year at the peak of the first wave. Our expectation of annual revenue in line with fiscal 2021 has not changed. We continue to concentrate more business with our best partners and doors as a strategic complement to DTC. All regions made strong contributions to our growth. The sequential improvement we’re seeing in Canada is particularly encouraging. Excluding the impact of temporary PPE sales, revenue increased by 126%. This is despite losing 40% of the trading days at our nine Canadian stores. Since reopening, we are seeing some of our best store productivity levels globally in our home market. Moving onto gross margin, DTC was 73% while wholesale was 35%. Both came in slightly lower than the levels we discussed on our last call. We continue to expect each to be in line with fiscal 2021 for the full year. In wholesale, distributor mix was higher than initially expected, as was non-parka mix in DTC. These mix impacts are not significant on an annual basis and we expect them to be transitory. We achieved record non-parka participation in our own channel at roughly half of DTC revenue. This is a great milestone for the strategic evolution of our offering. Finishing with SG&A, the total expense line was $72 million, up 47% from last year. This reflects a much more operational business alongside growth investments. Intra-quarter, we decided to shift a portion of our planned spend to Q2. I will circle back to the impacts of that at the end of my remarks. That shift complements underlying cost efficiencies from permanent savings initiatives last year. Looking ahead to fall-winter, we are confident in our ability to make the most of peak demand. The pandemic is not over. Disruptions and risks remain, including new variants. That said, our operational backdrop has greatly improved. All of our stores are now open, as are our eight Canadian manufacturing facilities. Our factories are running efficiently at much more normalized levels of production relative to last year. While distancing regulations remain, we are utilizing extra shifts to lessen the impact. Due to our unique model, we don’t have significant exposure to the production shutdowns and shipping delays the sector is currently facing. The vast majority of our revenue base is made in Canada. With a continuative offering, we confidently stage raw materials and finished goods. Our shipping routes are also different. We generally start outbound from Canada to our global network of distribution centers. We are highly confident in our ability to get product into the marketplace while retaining in-season flexibility. Our gross margin tailwinds also make this type of environment much more manageable from a profitability perspective. Our experience in fiscal 2021 is a great proof point. Despite losing three months of production to mandatory closures and retooling our infrastructure to make PPE, we were not constrained by supply and we preserved very strong gross margins. The other uncertainty our sector is grappling with is the pace of retail recovery relative to last year’s outsized ecommerce gains. As a brand which started in DTC online and has a selective retail footprint, we are truly agnostic. We want to drive DTC mix higher wherever the consumer wants to shop, and in today’s environment where the consumer is able to shop. We have the global reach and critical mass to capture demand online and drive outsized growth. We also know that our stores are productive and sought after by consumers, even in a highly disrupted environment. Retail recovery is also foundational to our long-term margin upside. This year, we’ve already lost a significant amount of trading to closures and luxury retail traffic is still far from pre-pandemic levels globally. Across geographies, there is a wide spectrum of case levels, movement restrictions, and reopening trends. As we look beyond these dynamics, we have the potential for an extra gear. The normalization of retail will really accelerate the uplift from driving DTC mix higher. In an environment where all stores are continuously open with full traffic, there is no reason why our adjusted EBIT margin shouldn’t start with a two and have an advancing multi-year trend. Lastly, I will finish with some commentary around current trends in Q2. Starting with the top line, we are assuming a low double-digit growth rate in wholesale driven by earlier shipment timing. In DTC, we currently expect revenue at roughly 1.5 times last year’s level. In the other segment, which generated $30 million last year due to temporary PPE manufacturing, we do not expect any meaningful revenue. We expect DTC gross margin in the mid-70s and wholesale gross margin in the mid-40s, in line with historical annual levels. On the expense line, we’re currently planning for total SG&A of over $100 million and D&A a touch over $20 million. This reflects the flow through of delayed spend I mentioned earlier. In summary, we continue to navigate through a challenging environment, but we remain confident in our resilient and growing business. We are encouraged by the improving retail trends and rapid global ecommerce growth. Pairing this with our agile supply chain and distribution puts us in a great position to navigate today’s unknowns. We remain in a dynamic world, but we are very optimistic that our momentum will continue into the peak season and drive sustained long-term growth. With that, I will pass over to the Operator to begin Q&A.