Jonathan Sinclair
Analyst · Evercore. Omar, your line is open
Good morning, everyone. Thanks Dani and thank you all for joining us. Looking at Q3 performance and our current trends that are three key things that stand out. Canada Goose has returned to growth. The resilience of our earnings and cash flow has delivered and we're entering the final quarter of the fiscal year with strong momentum. Starting with the topline, total revenue increased by $4.87 million to $474 million with significant sequential improvement across our business. This reflects global demand strength as well as our focusing to the pivotal distribution to where the consumer is shopping tonight. Coming out of the first COVID wave in the summer, we were in the midst of a massive digital shift in consumer behavior. We knew that e-commerce was as close as we could get to an always open channel and get this, we were proactive in our investments compared to the fall with the selling season from logistics to inventory mapping and experience. The result is a strong acceleration in performance in our previous quarter. E-commerce grew by 39.3% driven by meaningful investments to both traffic and conversion. Operationally, we're pleased with how smooth our network handles and shift record online volumes during the peak. The transition we completed in the summer to enhance capability and service levels were central to achieving this. Geographically, that was well-balanced double-digit growth in all of our major e-commerce markets. In North America, we saw strong contributions from our well-established sites in Canada and the US. In Mainland China, our shopping team of [indiscernible] continues to be a powerful engine for growth and last but not least, our momentum in Europe was exceptional. This includes very strong results in Germany, France and the Republic of doubling of our digital business in the UK. Alongside eCommerce, our another big strategic bet this year was store expansion in Asia. We did several offers in international shopping. We knew that serving the world's largest luxury consumer base at home was critical. DTC revenue in Mainland China increased by 41.7% with existing stores near pre-pandemic levels and the completion of our two remaining openings in Changchun, China and Shanghai. This strengthens our conviction in some way and we further expand its tier one tier two cities complements by the reach of Timo. And our stores in North America and Europe, we faced outsized headwinds from capacity restrictions and managed closures compounded by a lack of international traffic. In Q3, we lost 35 trading days for each of our three locations in Toronto, with Ottawa and Montreal also shutting at the end of the quarter. In London, we lost 36 trading days, with Paris and Milan, each closed for 13 as well as Berlin for 12 days. These closures include some of our most productive stores globally, the biggest and busiest days of the year. Against this to achieve total DTC revenue of $299.4 million, only $2.4 million less than last year is a great result. Relative to Q2, we offset a much greater proportion of retail deployments through e-commerce and when open, the stores delivered strong productivity. Wholesale increased by 2.7% to $160.8 million, this was driven by later shipment timing, data requests for more than in-season fulfillment model. We’re pleased with the performance of our partners this fall winter and we will continue to take a controlled brand first approach to managing this channel. Moving to earnings and cash flow adjusted EBIT margin was 33.3% in the quarter. This is a level of profitability most brands never come near let alone in times like these. Our resilience is grounded in full price economics and highly productive distribution. Consolidated gross margin was 66.8% with PTC at 77.9% and wholesale at 51.5%. Both channels were above typical levels due to temporary tailwinds. Gross margins in the mid 70s for DTC and mid to high 40s for wholesale remained the right level for wholesale over the long-term. That said these increases also reflect the durability of our gross margin fundamentals. Going down the P&L DTC operating margin was 55%. Retail profitability was impacted by operating disruptions, but was still very strong, and the uplift from e-commerce growth was a positive partial offset. Wholesale operating margin came in at 42.9%. While aggressively managing costs and cutting discretionary spending, we are better equipped to play offence when we see the opportunity. We accelerated SG&A investments in brand and demand building while still delivering a strong profit this quarter. Deducted EPS per diluted share was $1.01 compared to $1.08 last year. That brings cash free operating cash flow was $309.6 million an increase of $75.1 million driven by - reduced working capital. As a vertical manufacturer with an evergreen offering, we are executing against a planned drawdown of staged goods. Inventory decreased by 2.6% relative to Q3 last year, and 17.8% relative to the end of fiscal 2020. We remain on track to deliver a significant year-over-year decline as we close out fiscal 2021. In terms of liquidity, we are in a strong position with no leverage and a high degree of flexibility. Cash was up $469 million at the quarter end alongside an additional $256 million of available borrowing capacity in our undrawn revolver. Finishing with current trends, we are encouraged by the continued acceleration that we have seen in e-commerce growth since December. On the retail side however, store closures and movement ability restrictions have intensified. 45% of our own retail stores globally are currently closed. Globally, we've also seen a slowdown in foot traffic in certain markets in response to new movement restrictions. Recognizing this is a dynamic situation, we believe we are well positioned to continue moderating these headwinds through our digital business. In the wholesale, the vast majority of our shipments have been completed to-date. Q4 is seasonally a very small quarter for the channel and we currently expects a low double-digit year-over-year revenue decline. We concluded our contractual obligations for PPE, manufacturing in Q3, and as a result we do not expect further revenue from these activities in other segments in Q4. In terms of gross margin, we do not expect the DTC and wholesale gross margins in Q4 to repeat the larger year-over-year increase we had in Q3. This is due to seasonal spring products, and a reduction in [indiscernible] business manufacturing. Lastly, we expect overall SG&A in Q4 to grow at a similar rate year-over-year to rate we saw in Q3, driven by our continued investments in brand demand building. At the start of this year, we moved aggressively to effect downside, while investing with conviction, when we saw opportunity. Our success this quarter shows that that strategy is working. We can grow and we can be highly profitable in a challenged operating environment. We believe - that this underscores have the potential when the world comes out of this pandemic. We know that the path there won't be a straight line, but we're on the right track. And I look forward updating you on our progress on our next call. And with that, I will pass it over to our operator to begin Q&A.