Earnings Labs

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Jun 2, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Carol and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Canada Goose Q4 and Full Year Fiscal 2017 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Allison Malkin of ICR.

Allison Malkin

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. With me today are Dani Reiss, CEO; and John Black, CFO. For today’s call, Dani will begin with highlight of our fiscal year performance and then review the priorities we are focused on in fiscal 2018 and longer term. Following this, John will provide details of our financial results and outlook. After our prepared remarks, we will take your questions. Before we will begin, I would like to inform you that this call including the Q&A portion of the call include forward-looking statements about plans for our business and our fiscal 2018 and long-term outlook. Each forward-looking statement made on this call is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statement. Additional information regarding these factors appears under the heading Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and risk factors, in our annual report on Form 20-F, which will be filed with the SEC and available on our website at www.canadagoose.com and under risk factors in our final prospectus filed with the SEC on March 16, 2017 and in the earnings press release that we furnished today under the heading Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements. The forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. During this conference call, in order to provide greater transparency regarding Canada Goose’s operating performance, we refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures that involve adjustments to IFRS results. Any non-IFRS financial measures presented should not be considered to be an alternative to financial measures required by IFRS, should not be considered measures of Canada Goose’s liquidity and are unlikely to be comparable to non-IFRS financial measures provided by other companies. Any non-IFRS financial measures referenced on this call are reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measure in a table at the end of our earnings press release issued this morning and available in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.canadagoose.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Dani.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Thank you, Allison and good morning everyone, and welcome to Canada Goose’s very first earnings call. Our fourth quarter performance capped off another extremely successful year for Canada Goose. For the year, revenues were above our expectations and increased more than 40% on a constant currency basis over fiscal 2016, and adjusted earnings per diluted share were up over 43% compared to fiscal 2016. We saw growth across channels, geographies, and seasons which we believe is a strong testament to the continued and growing demand for Canada Goose products around the world. It’s also an indication of our ability to deliver best-in-class products that perform in almost every element and climate. We’re excited to continue building upon the strong momentum in fiscal 2018. I want to remind you to think about our results on a long-term basis, not quarterly as we operate a seasonal and high growth business which can have a significant impact on results quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. Looking at our business through this lens is an important factor to interpreting our results and the health of our business. With that, we are extremely proud of several milestones that occurred during fiscal 2017. In particular, we made significant progress in strengthening and expanding our geographic footprint in both new and existing markets and across wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. This is driven not only by the introduction of a broader product offering but also by our continued efforts to authentically and creatively tell our story around the world. We saw tremendous success and we made significant headway in the growth of our direct-to-consumer or DTC channel which includes our e-commerce sites and our company-owned retail stores. DTC ended the year at 28.6% of our total sales, up from less than 5% two years ago. We are excited to continue growing…

John Black

Analyst

Thank you, Dani. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. Financial performance was very strong in fiscal 2017, and I’m excited to be sharing the details with you. We executed on a number key initiatives and performance improved significantly across all financial metrics. And we were also very pleased with the fourth quarter performance. As Dani mentioned, this year, we excelled in a number of our strategic priorities. Results in the direct-to-consumer or DTC sales channel delivered strong top-line and margin contribution. The 2017 spring collection launched in Q4 and has been the most successful to-date. Margins expanded on the strength of our DTC performance. Before I review the detailed financial results, I would like to take a few moments to point out some of the important characteristics regarding our business and how we manage these items. We believe that this will be helpful to you and to develop your earnings models. As you know, a significant portion of our business is in a wholesale channel. We closed our order book in the first quarter for shipments that began to take place later in the year. While orders are non-binding, our order book gives us visibility into the annual wholesale revenue. In fact, at this point in the fiscal year, we have a great line of sight into our wholesale business, which last year represented 70% of our total sales. In addition, our business’s seasonality results in a greater percentage of our revenue and earnings occurring in the third -- second and third fiscal quarters. We’ve just finished our fourth quarter and are in the midst of our first quarter fiscal 2018, both of these periods representing a smaller percentage of our volume than fiscal year 2017 Q2 and Q3. Q4 fiscal 2017 revenues accounted for 13% of…

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Thanks John. In summary, we are extremely pleased with the performance this year and the progress we’ve made on our strategy and our exciting outlook for fiscal 2018. I am personally very proud of Canada Goose and all of our teams that have made this company what it is today and what we expect it to be in the future. We continue to have high expectations for future as we build an enduring legacy. We’re really excited to be able to share our story with the public markets and deliver value to our shareholders while continuing to deliver our authentic product to our growing customer base. And with that, I’d like to turn it over to the operator to begin the Q&A portion of this call. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question today comes from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Ike Boruchow

Analyst

Hi. Good morning everyone and congrats on a great quarter out of the gate. I guess my question is, could you maybe help us help explain the wholesale gross margin in the quarter a little bit more? I think maybe bucket those three factors that you mentioned in terms of the impacts. And then to that point, if it’s possible, could you help tell us what the impact on the sales and gross profit was from the timing shift that did impact Q3, just so we can get a sense of normalizing that when we look at the quarter?

John Black

Analyst

Sure. I’ll talk about the wholesale gross margin. There is a couple of questions in there, Ike. So, first of all, the wholesale gross margin for the year was 43.3% and that’s within our expected range of 43% to 47%. There were few adjustments taking place over the year and in the quarter that affected that. In particular, in the fourth quarter, we had an adjustment for inventory costs of $3.2 million that resulted from costing, from costing adjustments we made to our provisions. So, on an annualized basis -- and we would not expect that adjustment to recur. So, on an annualized basis, if our range is from 43% to 47%, we’d expect that to come in the midpoint of that range in the future year. Looking at the fourth quarter is something that is bit difficult, because it only represented 13% of our total volume for the year. So, when you look at that, it tends to distort any type of adjustment.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lindsay Drucker Mann from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping now that you mentioned the fall order book is closed, can you talk to what your order book indicates sales will be for the wholesale business across your fiscal -- I guess FY18 or even just the fall portion of it?

John Black

Analyst

Sure. So, the order book is closed, Lindsay and the impact is included in our guidance. So, the order book is basically where we’d expect it to be and we’re on our way to producing towards it.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Yes, I’m really happy with it. We do not really think this is -- that number is quite -- I’m really happy with where fall order book is coming in.

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Analyst

Maybe just to follow-up. Could you talk about -- you mentioned a couple of times how pleased you are with the lighter weight styles. Can you talk about, in your fall order book, what proportion of orders are lightweight for the upcoming fall season versus what they were last year, anything you could do to dimensionalize how much momentum is behind that specific category?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

We don’t break down our order book by different product category, but certainly our lighter weight categories are growing and all of our categories are growing but lightweight is growing at an even faster rate. So, we’re very pleased with the way our product assortment is coming in.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christian Buss from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Christian Buss

Analyst

You’ve now had about nine months into your retail stores being opened, wondering if you could provide some perspective of how you’re thinking of the profitability and the potential contribution from those retail stores that’s changed given what you’ve seen so far?

John Black

Analyst

Christian, the profitability of the first two stores we opened in Soho and Toronto were exceptional. And although we expect things to continue to go very well, we don’t think it’s prudent to forecast on that basis going forward. So, we’re expecting the margin to continue to improve as we grow. In addition, the direct-to-consumer channel had about 28% of our total volume, that’s up from I think about 19%; it was 17% the year before. We expect that to get closer to equal with the direct -- the wholesale channel over time.

Christian Buss

Analyst

That’s encouraging. And could you talk about e-commerce geography rollout this year, as a follow-up; where are you expecting to launch, how many regions?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

We’re planning to launch ecomm in seven more markets in Europe this year. And as I mentioned earlier, we received visitors through our ecommerce sites from almost every country in the world this year. So, it’s a growing number of people, traffic volume is growing, and we’re very, very encouraged by it. To be specific, the seven new markets that we’re opening are Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Luxemburg, and Austria.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Tunick from Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.

Brian Tunick

Analyst

Thanks. I’ll add my congrats as well, guys. Just curious on some of the metrics or how we should think about some wholesale growth views for the coming year. I guess you mentioned, new doors and also geographic mix. So, just curious where in the world the expansion is coming from beyond sort of what we already saw in the filings, new doors, is that high-end department store and sporting goods or are there other retailers that you guys are looking at? And then, the second piece of that is what kind of pricing increases are you assuming in your wholesale business for the coming year? Thank you.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Our wholesale growth next year is coming primarily from same-store sales, and we’re growing within our existing footprints with our established partners; in some cases, we’re opening new doors. We don’t get into, as you know, door counts or how many doors we have and what parts of world across geographies. But we’re certainly expanding our wholesale footprint with world-class partners. As per our plan and it’s going really, really well, we remain a shining star in the wholesale landscape with all of our partners, and we expect to see that continue.

Brian Tunick

Analyst

And then, regarding price increases assumed in the model, and also any comments on what kind of lift you’re seeing in shop-in-shops that you’ve done the last year? Thank you.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Shop-in-shops are certainly brand enhancing and Canada Goose is a destination and consumers from all over the world will come and gravitate towards the enhanced brand experience that shop-in-shop provides. In terms of pricing, I’ll let John answer that question.

John Black

Analyst

So, for competitive reasons, we’re not going down to the level of price increases, we don’t want that sort of information disclosed.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Morris from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

John Morris

Analyst

Thanks. Hey, good morning Dani and good morning, John. Congratulations on a good start here. I think question is sort of really more for John at this point on SG&A outlook. We’ve got some investment initiatives on tap. I think we’ve got the new logistic center. Maybe if you can just -- as well as, I guess the websites that you’re starting up that you mentioned already internationally. Just give us the flavor of what are other investment initiatives are on tap and what kind of growth rate and SG&A dollars we should be thinking about for next year?

John Black

Analyst

So, first with regards to the investments that are taking place, we talked about opening new stores and new websites. In addition, there is general IT infrastructure and manufacturing infrastructures that we continue to invest in. Much of that is a capital expenditure, and we’ve talked before about a range of 6% to 8% of our CapEx being 6% to 8% of our total revenue. Regarding SG&A, we also talked about before that the way our income statement lays it out is that for the DTC channel, many of the direct cost of DTC occur in SG&A. So, those will continue to grow in proportion to the new stores and general growth in the DTC channel. So, we expect that to increase. The other point to consider when you’re modeling it is that these stores will have the bulk of their revenue occurring in the winter months and yet these SG&A costs will be consistent throughout the year. Overall, DTC margins and EBITDA margins will increase as a result of this but much of the spending for the DTC channel occurs in the SG&A line.

John Morris

Analyst

Now, would you say that SG&A dollar increase next year would be higher or lower than what we saw this year for total company?

John Black

Analyst

I think, SG&A dollar increase next year will be higher.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Camilo Lyon from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Camilo Lyon

Analyst

Good morning, guys. I’ll also add my congrats on a nice quarter. I wanted to focus a little bit on the spring line, if you could. Could you tell us how much that contributed to the fiscal fourth quarter? Was that predominantly driven by growth or by your DTC channel or is it also balanced with good sell-throughs in your wholesale channel? And if you could just articulate what the appetite is by your wholesale partners to take on more of these non-core categories early on?

John Black

Analyst

We were extremely pleased with how spring did for this season. And spring -- we don’t break down sales in terms of what our sell-through was or what percentage it was. Spring is still a smaller category than our -- smaller part of our business, within our overall business, down business. But, I’d say that every category is doing well. I’d say that for sure, consumers are gravitating towards -- the collection from it was -- absolutely was the best expression [ph] of spring, yet the spring [Indiscernible] that Canada Goose produced, and I think the consumer responded really well to that and we expect to see that continue in following spring seasons.

Camilo Lyon

Analyst

Was it predominantly constituted in your DTC channel?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

That’s across channel.

John Black

Analyst

It was across channel. It was certainly in our DTC channel and also in our wholesale channels and also multiple geographies, in different countries around the world it’s done well. It’s done well across all channels and across all geographies.

Camilo Lyon

Analyst

And that success I would assume is your wholesale partner is more confident than bigger proportion of that spring assortment going forward?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

That would make sense, yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Megan Annette [ph] from TD Securities.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. With respect to the three-year outlook, can you provide any color just on the international growth that’s factored in there, particularly with respect to Asia? And then, just as a follow-up, can you talk to the outlook for international wholesale growth, relative to the DTC?

John Black

Analyst

Pardon?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

With respect to the three-year outlook, can you give us any color on the international growth that’s factored in there and focus on Asia in particular? And then, is there any color you can give on the international wholesale growth versus DTC?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Yes, sure. I think that on three-year outlook, I think that the way we look at Asia with regards to our three-year outlook is that it’s still very much in its infancy and we’re currently working on -- especially China, we’re working on our market entry strategy for the Chinese market. At this point, we’re in the Chinese market in some wholesale doors and there is very large opportunity for us in that marketplace, and when we have anything to announce about that, we’ll make that announcement. Europe is -- we don’t break out geographies specifically in terms of sales. John, do you have anything to add to that?

John Black

Analyst

I’ll just add regarding your question about DTC growth. So, DTC has grown from 11% to 28% last year -- year before last, rather, to 28% this year. And as we continue to open more stores and just generally penetrate the DTC market more, we expect that 28% to come closer to even with wholesale over time, and that’s across all channels and all geographies.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Yes. I’ll add one last thing to that. We are very excited about our opportunity across all geographies, existing geographies, white space that continues to remain in United States; as I mentioned, huge markets that we have in China, markets like Russia and Germany, we still have tremendous runway for us, both in our wholesale and our direct-to-consumer channels.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Mark Petrie

Analyst

I just wanted to ask about how the next two retail stores that you guys are going to be opening will be tweaked from the first two. And I guess sort of broader picture, kind of what have been your key learnings as you’ve moved into your own retail stores?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

This is good question. We’ve certainly learned a lot from our retail stores. Both of our stores performed above our expectation, which is fantastic. Both of our stores, we feel reflected the ethos and the brand of Canada Goose were a reflection of the cities in which they were in. And feel that it’s really important at all the stores that we have around the world, are reflection of the cities that they are in, as well as a reflection of Canada Goose. And so, they’re not all boilerplate same sort of templates. Operationally, we learned a lot of things and with proprietary learnings and knowledge only improved our already exceptional performance. So, we’re really excited to continue to roll them out in the places, the right locations around the world.

Mark Petrie

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And just a follow-up on that, I think you said three new stores. So, when would we expect to hear announcement about the third? I assume, you want to get that opened same sort of timeline of the first two?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Yes. We don’t have anything to announcement at the moment, but you’ll be the first to know when we do.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jay Sole from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Jay Sole

Analyst

Great. Thank you. Dani, you mentioned capacity in your prepared remarks and also just now that the New York and Toronto stores performed above your expectations. If the Chicago store and the London store and whatever the store is and the new online channels, also perform above the expectations, do you have the manufacturing capacity to be able to meet that upside? And can you talk about generally speaking, your overall ability to maybe have a bigger sales growth if that situation presents itself, relative to what your capacity is right now?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

We certainly have the capacity to meet any demand that we foresee and for the foreseeable future. We have a long range financial plan and long range sales plan internally, and coupled with that with we have a long range manufacturing plan, and they work hand in hand, and we’re always revisiting it. And making sure that we continue to be building and plan to build the infrastructure we need to support our growth.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Durran from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Jim Durran

Analyst

Good morning and welcome to the public markets. With respect to your guidance, now that you’ve got fourth quarter in your pocket. Has your perspective on your growth capacity changed or is the guidance that was provided from fiscal 2018 specifically, just a function of an exceptionally strong year in 2017?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

So, there is a couple of points. So, first of all, fiscal 2017 did have some exceptionally strong performance across all [ph] channels, but in particular, the one we would look to is the DTC channel. The two stores in particular in Yorkdale and Soho performed beyond even our best expectations. So, in terms of normalizing things, we would suggest that you would have more prudent, more conservative estimate of future store growth. In addition, those same-stores that would -- two stores that we already have opened will be in place for 12 months, so about 12 months of SG&A costs. So, there was some exceptional performance that we plan to normalize out for growth pattern.

Jim Durran

Analyst

Okay. And just in terms of sort of additional insight, color on performance of some key strategic drivers, can you tell us like from a shop in shop standpoint, while I understand it’s a key focus, I’ve heard no tangibility or materiality expressed in terms of where we should expect to see that strategy become more fulsome. And on the spring collection, can you give us any anecdotal insights as to how it might have performed either in your retail stores or online versus how it’s performed in wholesale that would give us some of the same enthusiasm you’ve got about its potential of becoming a bigger, more meaningful business.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Okay, the two questions there, shop-in-shops, and then we don’t give specifics, but certainly we’re rolling out shop-in-shops across all geographies, United States and Europe wherever we have wholesale partners. And with the most strategic ones and we’ve certainly seen an enhanced experience and again as a destination for local and tourist traffic alike having the shop-in-shops certainly enhances the operation. And when it comes to spring, which is the second question, we don’t break down sales by channel. I can tell you that our sales were good in all channels. We’re very, very pleased with the spring performance. And I think it bodes very well for the future and we are very excited about it and hope you are too.

Jim Durran

Analyst

So, I’m sitting here a year from now on shop-in-shop, like where am I going to see material increase in shop-in-shop locations, mostly in the United States or how would that play out?

Dani Reiss

Analyst

We’re not disclosing where we’re putting them this year and we’re opportunistic in putting them in the right place at the right time. But, you certainly will see more in United States, you’ll see more in Canada, you’ll see more in Europe.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Simeon Siegel from Nomura Instinet. Please go ahead.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, guys, and congrats. John, what was the raw material or inventory cost adjustment that you mentioned in wholesale? And then, thanks for all the gross margin color. Can you speak to the operating profit by channel for DTC and wholesale, maybe this quarter and then also just what you’re thinking about those channel margins next year and beyond? Thanks.

John Black

Analyst

Yes. I’ll speak again about the raw material adjustment. So, first of all, it was not material to our financial statements on a full year basis; it was $3.2 million, and it was a result of some inventory that was cost at an incorrect rate. So, we adjusted our provision for it. So that’s straight forward. And again, we would not expect this to recur, so for modeling purposes, our range for the wholesale margin generally would be 43% to 47%. It was little over 43% this year with that and other things happening. So we’d expect it to deviate towards the midpoint of that range. And the second question related to margins, we’re not disclosing that at this time.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jonathan Komp from Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Yes. Hi. Thank you. Just to follow up maybe on the broader growth question for fiscal 2018 and the next three years, projecting the topline up mid to high teens in terms of the growth rate, certainly you have an attractive growth rate but also quite a bit lower than what you’ve done. I think in the past three years, you have essentially doubled that growth rate each of the year. So, could you just maybe speak to the degree of conservatism or maybe realism baked into the outlook ahead and how you formulated that growth projection?

John Black

Analyst

We’ve formulated it based on our projecting methodology, which we probably have a bias towards conservatism but we think it’s realistic.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Okay. And then, maybe shorter term, I’m curious if you could maybe just give some insights to extent you’re willing, in terms of some of that forward-looking product extensions, both for new categories and then also as you get into the winter next year, some extensions on the core categories.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

We’re always innovating and putting the products into alliance. [Ph] In our core collection, we continue to evolve our core collection and add new products and they tend to be successful. And in terms of new categories, obviously spring, as we talked about extensively today, we’re really excited about it; it’s done really, really well. And we expect to -- we will continue to add to that and to bring more products that consumers want to market. And we’re super excited about spring. New categories we’re launching this fall is knitwear that will be for this upcoming fall. So, those are the short-term new products that we’re looking at. We are very excited about them. I think our -- it’s important to us and our product extension philosophy, our product philosophy is that we make best-in-class products. We are not a company that sales logos and stuff. We like to make the best stuff in the marketplace and we’re going to apply that methodology to all new products we’re putting into market as we mindfully add products to our line.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today comes from Omar Saad from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Omar Saad

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the IPO and all the success for the last few years, really bringing the brand to life. I wanted to ask about how you think long-term about the footprint of the brand, digital versus physical. The team is pretty unique to have this kind of level of penetration of DTC at this stage of kind of lifecycle of the brand, young and small brand at this point. How big do you think that digital business can be and how you think about using social media to -- another technique to really drive that penetration rate, which lot of brands out there with much bigger businesses that would be great [indiscernible] your digital footprint? Thanks.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

We’re very happy with the performance of our DTC channel and online is doing great and digital is doing great. We think -- online is doing; stores are doing great. Our DTC strategy is driven by ecommerce; we intend to lead this with ecommerce and have -- build a responsible store footprint to support for amazing in-store brand experience for omni-channel environment. I think that over time and over next -- over years, we think we expect our sales of both DTC and wholesale to grow at different rates and we see them coming more into balance with each other over time. I think that we believe that reaching consumers digitally is a primary way for doing that these days, and that’s our primary method of reaching our consumers.

Operator

Operator

I’ll turn the call back over to Dani Reiss for closing remarks.

Dani Reiss

Analyst

Thank you. Well, thanks again everybody for joining us today. We really appreciate it, really excited to have our first ever earnings call. We very much look forward to seeing many of you guys next week at the Baird conference. Thank you very much, have a great day, and all the best.

John Black

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect.