Norman Smagley
Analyst · Dougherty. Your line is now open
Thank you, John and good morning everyone. We ended the year with a very strong fourth quarter. Total revenue was up 16% to $160 million. Service revenue grew 20% to a record $139 million. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled from the prior year to over $23 million, representing a 14% margin. Turning to segment results, CA North America total revenue exceeded $100 million for the first time. Service revenue increased 15% to $95 million, driven largely by an increase in aircraft online to nearly 2,700. For the quarter, ARPU grew 2% to 141,000. ARPU grew 8% year-over-year, adjusting for the dilution from additional RJs and aircraft aided by new airline partners. We expect to see improved ARPU growth in 2017, driven by a significant increase in available bandwidth and a stable regional jet count. CA North America segment profit tripled to nearly $25 million, representing a 25% margin. This was up 14 percentage points from last year due to increased operating leverage, including hitting fewer development milestones. Excluding the timing of certain non-cash accruals, our segment profit margin would have been approximately 20%. Turning to CA rest of world, total revenue for the quarter was $7.4 million, up 76% from the prior year, driven by growth in ARPA and aircraft online. Aircraft online increased to 267 at year end, up 65 versus the prior year. Our CA rest of world’s 2Ku awarded, but not yet installed aircraft was approximately 560 at year end. For the quarter, we have generated annualized ARPA of 172,000, up 17% from the prior year, driven primarily by higher airline paid and third-party paid users that Michael discussed earlier. Rest of World segment loss for the quarter increased to $25 million from $20 million in the prior year due to higher ED&D expenses related to 2Ku certification and OEM programs and increased satellite capacity to support upcoming new airline launches. Now turning to BA, service revenue for the quarter was up 28% to a record $36 million, driven by a 20% growth in ATG aircraft online to nearly 4,200 and a 7% increase in ATG service ARPU to over 2,600 per month. BA equipment revenue of $15 million was down $6 million from the prior year. About half of the revenue decline was due to the deferral of the equipment revenue associated with 4G [indiscernible] program with the remainder due to general market conditions. For the year, we deferred $5.5 million under the 4G [indiscernible] program. We expect to recognize this deferred revenues to be in the second quarter of 2017 as 4G units are shipped. Segment profit was up 19% to $23 million, representing a 45% of segment profit margin. This was up 6 percentage points from last year, driven by lower ED&D expense and growth in high margin service revenue, which represented 70% of BA revenue for the quarter. Fourth quarter consolidated cash CapEx of $34 million was $20 million higher than the prior year due to increased airborne equipment purchases to support 2Ku installations. Turning to full year 2016 results, our revenue grew 19% to $597 million and our adjusted EBITDA increased 83% to $67 million for the year, both exceeded our 2016 guidance. Cash CapEx of $133 million was within guidance range and up $53 million from the prior year, driven by purchases of 2Ku equipment to support 2016 and 2017 installations. We ended 2016 with $456 million of cash on hand. In January, we added $60 million of net proceeds from the issuance of additional senior secured notes. With that, let me now address 2017 guidance, starting with revenues. Total revenue is expected to range from $670 million to $695 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 12% to 17%. This includes CA North America revenue of $405 million to $425 million; CA Rest of World revenue of $40 million to $50 million and BA revenue of $220 million to $230 million. We expect our adjusted EBITDA to range between $60 million and $75 million. This includes approximately $20 million of incremental expense for technology development in North America and $30 million of large costs for new airlines for the rest of the world. Let me now give more color for the profitability trend for the rest of the world. We will more than double our 2016 installs as we launch several new airlines in 2017, including long haul partners such as British Airways, Air France and Air Canada. Those new airline launches will initially have a dilutive impact on overall ARPA. The underlying ARPA in existing rest of world airlines will continue strong double-digit growth. With increased expenses for OEM and aftermarket programs and satellite capacity to support the new airline launches, we expect 2017 to be the peak year of segment launch in rest of world. Starting in 2018, ARPA growth combined with increased aircraft online can drive rest of world service margin improvement. Higher service margin combined with operating leverage realized from higher aircraft count will drive segment profit. This will continue to improve as more aircraft come online and mature. Our current rest of world 2Ku backlog of 560 aircraft provides enough critical mass to achieve segment profitability. Our North America businesses will continue profitable growth in 2017 despite increases in next-gen ATG development spending, $9 million of which is expected to hit in the first quarter. As next-gen ATG is deployed, the increased bandwidth will drive incremental revenue. Overall, on a consolidated basis, we expect to see meaningful EBITDA growth starting in 2018, including improving profitability in rest of world and are well positioned to deliver on our 30% EBITDA margin target by 2021. Now, turning to installs and cash CapEx, we now expect installs between 450 and 550 of 2Ku aircraft in 2017, up 100 from previous guidance. This includes approximately 150 installs in rest of world. We expect 2017 cash CapEx of $230 million to $260 million, which includes equivalent purchases of accelerated 2Ku installs and next-gen ATG network expenditures. For 2018, we are also increasing our 2Ku install guidance to between 650 to 750, raising the low end by 100 aircraft. This includes approximately 300 aircraft in the rest of world. We expect a significant volume in cash in 2018 versus 2017 due to a substantial decline in Gogo’s average investment for 2Ku installation and the significant increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA. We expect 2018 cash CapEx of between $70 million and $120 million. The decrease in cash CapEx versus prior guidance includes an estimate of 70% to 80% of 2018 2Ku equipment transactions will be under our airline directed business model. Under this model, equipment transactions are accounted for as revenue and cost of goods sold rather than capital expenditures and deferred airborne leasing proceeds. In summary, we remain well-positioned on our path to profitability as we increased aircraft online, ARPA and margins while simultaneously reducing our investment per aircraft. Accelerated 2Ku installs and improved operating leverage will enable us to reach free cash flow now in 2019. Operator, we are ready for our first question.