Travis Matthiesen
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open
Thanks Clint. Slide eight looks at our top-line results over the first three months of the year, which came in within our range of expectations for the quarter. The robust growth in Medicare more than offset the declines in IFP as we continued to reallocate resources towards the higher margin Medicare business, resulting in 55% commissionable growth. Our Internal Medicare team of agents delivered revenue growth of 65%. Medicare commissions were fueled by the combination of 48% growth in carrier approved submissions and 17% LTV gains, which benefited from $9 million of Encompass revenue in the quarter. Total revenue grew 45% during OEP to $204 million including enterprise revenue of $30 million, up 6% in the quarter. Driving strong submission growth with improving LTVs is a testament to the quality of our marketplace as our tech-enabled agents help consumers find the best policy to meet their needs at the time of enrollment. Slide nine examines the drivers of the LTV gains that GoHealth has been uniquely delivering for carrier partners consistently over the last four quarters. These LTV gains are the result of large investments we made over a year ago in our TeleCare team and our Encompass Platform along with our expanded carrier footprint, all of which incrementally improve an already great platform. Let me explain the two main drivers of our 17% LTV improvement. The first relates to the continued persistency gains that our TeleCare team is driving through our consumer engagement strategy. We have seen steady improvements in persistency over the last 12 months, translating this quarter into a large improvement compared to a weak first quarter of 2020 when LTVs were down. Remember we increased investment in our TeleCare team during the spring of last year, so not surprisingly the second quarter of 2020 was when our LTV started to move higher. The first quarter of 2021 also benefited from a large improvement in effectuation of new 2021 policies on the heels of our carrier expansion into the fourth quarter's annual enrollment period. We also benefited from enhanced call routing of consumers to agents that are best able to meet their needs. These items combined with commission rate increases helped power an 11% gain in LTV. The second driver of LTV gains was the additional revenue from administering services for carrier partners under our Encompass platform. The $9 million Encompass contribution drove an additional six percentage points of LTV growth in the quarter. And our accelerated investment in Encompass infrastructure in 2021 positions us for future gains as we expand our services and carrier reach over the coming years. Slide 10 is an update of a fourth quarter slide to highlight our focus beyond just LTVs as we look to drive higher Medicare revenue per submission through the combination of commissionable and enterprise growth, demonstrating the benefits of our unique carrier relationships. This slide highlights the 15% growth in first quarter revenue per submission and it includes commissions, enterprise revenue as well as our Encompass revenue. As a reminder, we collect cash for enterprise and Encompass services on an accelerated basis relative to commissions and these accelerated collections further improve an already rapid payback period. Encompass is fast becoming a meaningful incremental revenue driver for us. We expect the majority of Encompass revenue this year to flow through the commissions’ line and impact LTVs as the services are tied to the policy. But over time, as we roll out services across a broader group of carriers that are directly tied to our members, the revenue will also impact our enterprise line. We are moving thoughtfully to lengthen our lead at commercializing our Encompass programs and we have a proven track record of over-delivering for our growing network of carrier partners. We have been encouraged by the carrier and partner response and believe Encompass can help drive our next leg of growth over the coming years as we help partners improve the effectiveness of programs beyond enrollment, positively impacting our carrier partners' long-term profitability as we leverage our position in the value chain to deliver results. You'll hear more on this from Clint in a minute. Slide 11 walks through the progress we delivered towards our full year investments and resulting EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million was consistent with our expectations as short-term profitability was offset by our planned, strategic investments in agent capacity, technology and the GoHealth brand and Encompass. Aggregate customer care and enrollment including TeleCare and technology investments doubled, up $28 million in the first quarter. These planned investments include the direct costs of the new agents and training programs along with the opportunity cost as the majority of new agents were in our training modules, limiting near-term revenue upside, but positioning our agents to deliver high-quality submissions with improving efficiency during the upcoming AEP. Recall that agent capacity was a material limiting factor for us last year, and we are aggressively building the infrastructure necessary to capitalize on the large and growing Medicare market. Increased marketing and advertising spend helped us drive the strong top line growth in the quarter as we create internally-sourced opportunities for our agents. Combined cost of revenue and marketing and advertising grew 51%, roughly in line with revenue growth. Moving on to our 2021 outlook shown on slide 13, we are reaffirming full year 2021 revenue of $1.15 billion to $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $345 million to $385 million driven by 40% revenue growth and 35% EBITDA growth at the midpoint. Regarding the seasonal cadence, revenue growth in the second quarter could come in towards the high-end of the full year growth outlook, given the easy comparison against last year's COVID impact and lost production. This is a timing issue already incorporated in our full year outlook. As a reminder, in addition to the majority of our agent investments hitting the second and third quarters, including the short-term opportunity cost of keeping cohorts of agents off production to ensure they are highly efficient headed into AEP, we will have ramped up brand and Encompass investments against a relatively light period in the prior year. We anticipate second quarter EBITDA margins will come in at half of last year's level, and then expect a steady build back towards the prior year's absolute level of EBITDA in the third quarter before delivering strong operating leverage during AEP. Moving down the P&L, the combined costs related to marketing and cost of revenue will be heavily weighted towards marketing costs as our marketing team drives more high-quality consumer volume internally while continuing to develop our GoHealth brand among consumers. Marketing and advertising expenses should represent two-thirds of the total cost for the full year as the cost of revenue declines year-over-year. Investing now to execute well in AEP is a good trade-off as the EBITDA upside in Q4 far outweighs the short-term carrying costs from our accelerated investment posture. As we move into the fourth quarter's AEP, our plan anticipates continued strong revenue gains, powered by our agent growth and marketing capabilities, as well as improvements in efficiency at capturing opportunities. We won't need a big increase in the number of qualified leads to hit our numbers, but rather we are working towards better capitalizing on delivered opportunities through higher answer rates and increased conversion, which will improve our efficiency. Moving on to cash flow. Slide 14 highlights our fast payback periods and strong returns generated for shareholders. We collected a record $183 million of cash commissions during the quarter and cash collections during the last 12 months came in over 100% of expectations supporting our confidence in our LTV calculations as a proxy for cash flow. Strong cash collections combined with our highly efficient funnel led to positive operating cash flow of $31 million in the first quarter and TTM operating cash flow of negative $107 million. We converted this $107 million in negative operating cash flow over the last year into a $309 million increase in net commissions receivable equating to a market-leading 3 times return on investment even before incorporating the potential to further monetize our membership base through the expansion of our Encompass services. In addition to our strong and growing cash collections and $174 million of cash on hand at quarter end, we recently increased our revolver to $200 million, all untapped to ensure ample capacity to manage the seasonal cash flow demands of our rapidly growing business in 2021 without needing to access equity-linked financing. Clint will now walk you through some of the exciting early results we are seeing with our Encompass Platform and why we are so encouraged about the future potential. Clint?