Daniel Sheehan
Analyst · Joshua Esterov at CreditSights
Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my comments on the quarter, I'd like to thank Tom and the entire Genworth team for their partnership. I've had a really good run here over my 25 years with GE and Genworth, and I'm incredibly grateful for the opportunities I've had to work with so many talented people. I'm proud of my contributions to strengthening our financial foundation, and I'm excited to see what the team builds on that foundation. Now for the quarter. Genworth delivered another strong quarter, capping off an excellent year for the company. We further strengthened our balance sheet while investing in growth and returning capital to shareholders. We ended the year with liquidity above our cash target and lower leverage, reflecting our significant debt reduction throughout the year. As a result of our successful execution, we believe we have satisfied the financial conditions for removing the PMIERs capital restrictions placed on Enact by the GSEs, which in turn should lift these restrictions on Enact in the first quarter of 2023. As Tom mentioned, this will be a very positive development for Enact and Genworth as its majority owner since Enact will no longer be subject to more stringent capital requirements than its peers. Following Tom's high-level overview of full year and fourth quarter results, I will review our segment operating performance, including the results of our annual U.S. life insurance assumption review as well as our holding company liquidity position. Turning to Slide 7. Enact's insurance in force increased 10% year-over-year to a record $248 billion, driven by new insurance written and higher persistency. Primary new insurance written was down versus the prior year, a continuation of the trend we've seen has increased interest rates have resulted in lower mortgage originations. As Enact mentioned on its earnings call this morning, while elevated mortgage rates and decreased affordability have reduced demand, total housing inventory is below long-term levels and demand remains solid. The higher interest rate environment has resulted in higher persistency and is a meaningful benefit to Enact's profitability. The overall credit risk profile of Enact's new insurance written also remains strong. Moving to Slide 8. Enact had a favorable $42 million net pretax reserve release, which drove a loss ratio of 8%. The reserve release was primarily driven by favorable cure performance on COVID-19-related delinquencies, which was partially offset by reserve strengthening on 2022 new delinquencies and a prudent response to an uncertain economic outlook. The estimated PMIER sufficiency ratio of 165% or approximately $2.1 billion above published requirements remain strong. Sufficiency decreased sequentially, driven by the operating company's dividend distribution to Enact holdings. In December, Genworth received a special dividend from Enact of $148 million, which was the major driver of Genworth's enhanced liquidity profile as we ended the year. Further, Enact's quarterly dividend payment of $0.14 per share generated proceeds of $19 million to Genworth. Going forward, returns of capital from Enact will continue to enable Genworth to generate excess cash. I will now cover our U.S. Life Insurance segment results starting on Slide 9. The segment reported adjusted operating income of $38 million, reflecting adjusted operating income of $24 million from LTC and $16 million from fixed annuities, partially offset by an adjusted operating loss of $2 million in life insurance. In our LTC insurance business, adjusted operating income was $24 million compared to $25 million in the prior quarter and $119 million in the prior year. Results reflected lower terminations versus the prior year as well as lower investment income versus the prior periods and continued growth in new claims. Earnings also benefited from higher in-force rate actions versus the prior quarter due to favorable policyholder elections related to the legal settlements on PCS I and PCS II policies. The settlement impacts were smaller, however, in the current quarter than the settlement impacts in the fourth quarter of 2021. Moving to Slide 10. The elevated claim mortality, you saw with the onset of the pandemic was lower in the current quarter versus last year, which is consistent with COVID-19 mortality trends in our life insurance business and nationwide. The remaining balance on our previously established COVID-19 mortality reserve is $90 million. As shown on the right-hand side of Slide 10, we saw a higher level of new active claims in 2022 compared to 2021, which indicates new claim incidents is trending back to pre-COVID-19 levels. New claim severity continues to increase as expected, given the aging of the block and shift in our claims mix to higher cost facility-based care. As a reminder, our large Choice I and Choice II policy blocks, which are beginning to enter their claim years, have higher daily benefit amounts and inflation coverage than the older LTC blocks. I would now like to discuss the results of our annual review of key actuarial assumptions in long-term care insurance, which is summarized on Slide 11. I will note that consistent with our practice last year, the COVID-19 pandemic impact to the businesses were generally not incorporated when reviewing our long-term assumptions since we don't think the pandemic impacts are indicative of future trends or long-term loss performance. In our assumption review of LTC claim reserves or disabled life reserves, we saw that in the aggregate, the disabled life reserve assumptions are holding up well, as they have for the last several years. Our review this year resulted in minimal change to the disabled life reserve balance. Part of the LTC active life margin testing process for policies not yet on claim, we reviewed our long-term assumptions relative to experience as is our annual practice. Our margins remain positive within the $500 million to $1 billion range consistent with last year. Therefore, there was no need to increase reserves and no P&L impact resulting from the assumption review. We made a few refinements that had relatively minor impacts, including reducing the lapse assumptions in light of favorable experience from LTC settlement elections and benefit reductions and increasing our interest rate assumptions. We also evaluated our assumptions regarding expectations of future premium rate increase approvals and benefit reductions. We have not yet changed the rate increased targets for Genworth's multiyear rate action plan from last year. However, based on favorable recent rate increase approval experience, regulatory support and settlement results, we have updated our assumption for future approvals and benefit reductions, resulting in additional future value. This assumption update demonstrates our confidence and expectation of continued success in achieving actuarially justified LTC rate increases. We now project the current targeted value of LTC premium increases and benefit reductions on a net present value basis to be approximately $30.3 billion in order to achieve economic breakeven. Since 2012, we've achieved approximately $23.5 billion in rate actions or over 75% of the rate increase and benefit reductions contemplated in our multiyear rate action plan. This is important progress toward our goal of addressing the risk in our legacy LTC business and reaching economic breakeven, and I'm incredibly proud of our team in this progress. Slides 12 through 15 further highlight the significant progress, which continued into 2022. During the full year of 2022, we received LTC in-force rate action approvals impacting $1.1 billion of annualized in-force premiums with a weighted average increase of 48%, getting us to $549 million of annual premium rate increase approvals in 2022. Our continued progress on our multiyear rate action plan and stabilization of the LTC block has also been in part through the LTC legal settlements, which have been beneficial to both our policyholders and to Genworth. For policyholders, many have elected to reduce their benefits and, in turn, reduce or eliminate their premiums. And for Genworth that allows us to release reserves and reduce our tail risk on these policies. The implementation of the second LTC legal settlement related to our PCS I and II policies began on August 1 and covers approximately 15% of our LTC policyholders. While we did see a favorable financial impact in the fourth quarter related to the settlement of $21 million before profits followed by losses, the financial impacts were not as large as they were in the prior year from the first settlement on our Choice I policies, which applied to approximately 20% of our LTC policyholders given the smaller policy block. The third LTC legal settlement related to our Choice II policies is still pending. The final court approval hearing began in November, and we're awaiting the judge's final ruling. This settlement represents 35% of our LTC block as Choice II is our largest LTC block of business. The timing for the implementation of the Choice II settlement will depend on when the court issues final approval of the settlement and whether there is any appeal of that final approval. We would expect to begin implementation within a few months of final approval, which is expected shortly for the favorable disposition of any appeal. If there is an appeal, that process is estimated to take until mid-2024 to play out to conclusion. Turning to Slide 16 and 17 in our life insurance products. We reported an adjusted operating loss of $2 million compared to operating losses of $33 million in the prior quarter and $98 million in the prior year. The key driver of the year-over-year improvement was an after-tax benefit from the Universal Life annual assumption update of $34 million relative to an unfavorable $70 million charge in the prior year. The $34 million assumption update was primarily related to interest rates, which rose throughout the year. The life insurance products also experienced favorable mortality year-over-year as pandemic impact subsided. COVID-19 claims accounted for only $3 million of the loss, which was lower than the prior year's $27 million of COVID-19 claims. In the current quarter, total term deferred acquisition cost or DAC amortization was $20 million after tax, which was higher than the prior year, primarily from 20-year term lapses. Results in the quarter also benefited from not having a DAC recoverability charge in our universal life insurance products due to the favorable assumption update. Regarding fixed annuities, adjusted operating income was $16 million compared to $19 million in the prior quarter and $20 million in the prior year, reflecting lower net spreads from bond calls, commercial mortgage loan prepayments and continued block runoff and a smaller benefit from interest rates, which did not increase as much as in the prior quarter. Our runoff segment comprised mainly of variable annuity products reported an adjusted operating income of $17 million for the current quarter compared to $9 million in the prior quarter and $16 million in the prior year. Current quarter results were impacted by positive equity market performance. As indicated on Slide 18, we're estimating the consolidated risk-based capital ratio for Genworth Life Insurance Company, or GLIC, to be 290% at the end of December, slightly up from the third quarter. Capital and surplus as of December 31 is estimated at $3 billion compared to $2.9 billion as of September 30 and December 31, 2021. We're pleased with this result given the volatility we saw in the equity markets this year, impacting our variable annuity block. Estimated combined statutory net income for life companies in 2022 was $275 million compared to $666 million in 2021. The current year estimate reflects lower earnings in LTC driven by new claims growth and lower earnings from in-force rate actions again, largely due to legal settlement impacts in the current year that are lower than last year's, partially offset by the improved mortality in the Life products as the pandemic impacts subside. Current year results also include an unfavorable impact of variable annuity products from equity market performance, offset by a net favorable impact from assumption updates and cash flow testing. Before I move on from our U.S. Life Insurance results, I wanted to provide an update on our adoption of the new GAAP accounting standard, long duration targeted improvements or LDTI, impacting our life insurance companies. As noted on Slides 19 and 20, we adopted this new standard on January 1, 2023, and we're required to represent certain financial information beginning on January 1, 2021, otherwise known as the transition date. This new standard does not impact Enact. And as Tom and I have mentioned before, it will not impact our cash flows, economic value or statutory accounting and related capital levels for our life insurance companies. In the third quarter, we disclosed a preliminary estimate for the impact to accumulated other comprehensive income or AOCI from LTC. Today, we're providing an update on the total impact to our U.S. GAAP equity position from the adoption of LDTI as of the January 1, 2021 transition date. As of that date, Genworth's U.S. GAAP equity of $15.3 billion will decrease by $13.7 billion after tax. As we've discussed in previous quarters, the most significant impact to our equity is from AOCI, which will decrease by $11.5 billion as of the transition date. The decrease is primarily due to the requirement to remeasure our insurance liabilities using a single A bond rate. The discount rate impact is mostly driven by LTC given the very long duration of the product. The single A bond rate as of the January 1, 2021 transition date was materially lower than our discount rate of over 5% under the existing guidance. It is worth pointing out that with the adoption of LDTI, our insurance liabilities, especially for LTC, will be more sensitive to movements in interest rates. For example, if the transition date adjustment use current rates and held everything else constant, the $11.5 billion reduction in AOCI would have more than reversed and the change in AOCI would have been positive. This illustrates the volatility in our U.S. GAAP reserves and AOCI that will likely occur in future periods as the discount rate fluctuates, which reinforces why we've encouraged investors to also review our statutory disclosures. The remaining decrease to stockholders' equity as of the transition date relates to a reduction to retained earnings of $2.2 billion, primarily from LTC. This impact is largely related to a more granular assessment of LTC policy cohorts defined on the basis of original contract issue date using best estimate assumptions. With this new accounting guidance, we do expect more volatility in our net income. Going forward, we'll see changes in the fair value of market risk benefits related to changes in equity market performance and interest rates impact net income for our annuity products. We could also see increased volatility from changes in our assumptions as cash flow assumptions will be unlocked and updated at least annually in the fourth quarter and from fluctuations and experience. With the adoption of LDTI, we will be representing results for full year 2021 and 2022 under the new guidance, and we expect net income to be lower in these periods, primarily related to LTC. We will provide additional details on the LDTI adoption in our 2022 Form 10-K filed later this month. Turning to the holding company on Slide 21. We ended the quarter with $307 million of cash and liquid assets above our cash target of 2x annual debt service, we received $168 million of capital from Enact plus $37 million in net intercompany tax payments in the quarter. For the full year 2022, Enact returned $206 million to Genworth and will continue to be a key source of cash flows moving forward. Given our significant debt reduction in 2022, including an additional $13 million be purchased opportunistically in the fourth quarter, our holding company strength has continued to improve over time. Annual debt service is expected to be approximately $60 million for 2023, and our debt outstanding is long dated. In 2022, net intercompany tax payments to the holding company were $223 million. The parent holding company has approximately $200 million of remaining deferred tax assets, mainly foreign tax credits that it expects to realize in the near future. The utilization of these tax assets is dependent on the taxable income generated by our subsidiaries. And once exhausted, we anticipate becoming a federal taxpayer. In the fourth quarter, we also completed $30 million of share repurchases for an average price of $4.10 per share. Through December 31, we executed a total of $64 million of our authorized $350 million share repurchase program. As we think about our capital allocation strategy going forward, our first priority is investing in growth by bringing care navigation support and other senior care services to market under the CareScout brand. There is a large addressable market for these services in the U.S., and we're excited to leverage Genworth's unique strengths to capitalize on the opportunities we see in the sector. As Tom mentioned, we'll invest approximately $30 million into launching fee-based, capital-light service offerings in 2023. Our second priority is to return capital to shareholders through opportunistic share repurchases. We expect to generate excess cash through our ownership of Enact and are well positioned to execute on these priorities given our strong liquidity position, healthy balance sheet and sustainable debt level. We had an excellent year in 2022 and are confident in Genworth's ability to continue to create value for shareholders. Now let's open the line up for questions.