Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Management
Yeah. Charley, I mean, again, our database of outage severity, which is a proprietary calculation, we've been tracking for five years to six years now. You're right, it's not 20 years of data, but what we do have is 20 years of government data, that on outages and although maybe not accumulated in the same fashion that we accumulate it, outages over the long haul have been traditionally higher, or historically higher, and in my 20 plus years here at the company, we've seen outage activity higher. This is a very, very low level. So again, it's kind of big pattern stuff. We don't know why it happens in the multi-year cycles that it happens, but it seems to be, you'll get a couple of years of active outage environment, and then followed by several years of inactive. So it's just kind of on, off cycle that is inherent to – and a lot, again, 70% of all outages caused by weather. So I think those big patterns are weather-related, and again some of the El Niño, La Niña kind of cycles that happen here, and I think are the root cause of some of that. So, we don't try to predict that. All we can do is say, let's look at the current environment, let's give our best, put our forecasting ability and our historical kind of perspective on this, and come up with our best view on outlook. And that's kind of what we've done. But again I think you look at where outages are at, and where they – even in that six years of data that we do have where they've been even before the major outages in 2011 and 2012. They were – the outages – the outage activity has been higher. So we just – we characterize this as kind of an ultra low level. You can also look at one other area I would point to, we're starting to look at, we look at insurance losses, basically non-flooding insurance losses, because the flood related stuff doesn't necessary generate power outages, but wind damage related insurance losses are down and have been down in the last – I mean, it's been a decade since there has been a major event in Florida, which is really unheard of meteorologically. So again we just characterize the current period as being really below normal, well below normal.