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Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2008

$24.10

-1.03%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Earnings conference call and presentation. Before we begin, please note that there will be a slide presentation accompanying today's conference call. That presentation can be obtained from Genco's website at www.gencoshipping.com. To inform everyone, today's conference is being recorded and now being webcast at the Company's website, www.gencoshipping.com. We will conduct the question and answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference will be accessible anytime during the next two weeks through Thursday, February 28, 2008 by dialing 888-203-1112 for U.S. callers, and 719-457-0820 for those outside of the U.S. To access the replay, please enter the passcode 4694857. Now, at this time, I am happy to turn the conference over to the Company. Please go ahead gentlemen.

Peter Georgiopoulos

Management

Gerry Buchanan

Management

Thank you and welcome to Genco's Fourth quarter and full year 2007 conference call. With me today are Peter Georgiopoulos, our Chairman, and John Wobensmith, our Chief Financial Officer. As outlined on slide 3 of the presentation, I will begin today's call by discussing the highlights of the fourth quarter and full year 2007, followed by John's review of our financial results for the quarter and 12-month period ended December 31, 2007. Following this, I will discuss the industry's current fundamentals. John, Peter and I will then be happy to take your questions. 2007 was a year of significant success with Genco and we continued to differentiate the company in three main areas. First we followed our leadership by continuing to consolidate the industry in a disciplined manner that met strict accretion and return on capital requirements. Second, we advanced our commercial position by signing long-term contracts at favorable risks with leading charters and third we declare the sizable and growing dividends to shareholders during the time in which we are seeking big, we expanded or more fully. For the year, we recorded net income, which reflects the earnings power of our more than fleet and the success at taking advantage of the robust dry bolt market in 2007. Net income was $106.8 million or $4.08 basic and $4.06 diluted earnings per share, which John will discuss in more detail later in the call. For the three months ended December 31, 2007, excluding the 423.5 million gain on the sale of the Genco Commander, we recorded net income of $33.5 million or $1.17 basic and $1.16 diluted earnings per share, including the sale of the Genco Commander, the company recorded net income of $56.9 million or $1.99 basic and $1.98 diluted earning per share. For the fourth quarter of 2007,…

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

I will begin my remarks by directing you to Slide 10, which presents our fourth quarter and 12 months ended December 31, 2007 and actual results. For the fourth quarter and 12 month period ended December 31, 2007, we recorded revenues of $65.7 million and $185.4 million respectively. This compares with revenues for the fourth quarter and 12 month period ended December 31, 2006 of $35.7 million and $133.2 million respectively. The increase was due to the operation of a larger fleet. Operating income for the fourth quarter and 12 month period was $65.2 million and $131.1 million respectively. This compares of operating income for the fourth quarter and 12-month period ended December 31, 2006 of $18.5 million and $70.3 million respectively. The increase in operating income is attributable to higher revenues and gains from sales of vessels which were partially offset by higher vessel operating expenses as well as higher general and administrative expenses. Interest expense for the fourth quarter 2007 was $8.8 million and $26.5 million for the 12-month period ended December 31, 2007, which compares to $3.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2006 and $10 million for the full year 2006. Net income was $56.9 million for $1.99 basic and $1.98 diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2007 and $106.8 million or $4.08 basic and $4.06 diluted earnings per share for the 12-month period ended December 31, 2007. Excluding the $23.5 million gain on the sale of the Genco Commander, net income totaled $33.5 million or $1.17 basic and $1.16 diluted earnings per share for the three months ended December 31, 2007. Included in net income for the 12-month ended December 31, 2007 is a $27 million gain on the sale of the Genco Commander and the Genco Glory and a $3.6 million…

Gerry Buchanan

Management

Thanks, John. I would like to take this opportunity to spend a few moments discussing the industry fundamentals. I will start with Slide 18, which points to the drybulk indices. Represented on this slide are the overall Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Capesize Index and the Baltic Panamax Index. As can be seen when looking at 2007 as a whole, the rate environment has displayed a significant increase since the beginning of the year, reaching record levels of over 10,000 points through October followed by some softening towards the end of the year on January of 2008. Even with the recent volatility, the index is still moving approximately 42% over the corresponding level last year. Moving on to Slide 19, we will discuss the drivers behind the overall strong rate environment as well as the main reasons behind the recent softening and freight rates, which we believe is temporary. As indicated in the graph of the bottom left, Chinese steel production grew to 486 million tons for the year ending December 31st, 2007, while 384 million tones of iron ore were imported into China for the same period. For the 12-month period Chinese steel production grew by 15% and iron ore imports grew by 18% year-over-year. As previously mentioned, what we believe to be temporary volatility, evidence still in the last few months of 2007 and beginning on 2008, was caused primarily by the following factors: First, shipment disruptions, reported both and Brazil and this failure reduced, available cargos in both the iron ore and coal side. Specifically, the iron ore report of the tax rate, stopped operations due to repair as caused by an accident, due to repairs caused by an accident in December and resulted in nearly shipment loss or 60,000 tons of iron ore. At the same…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) We will go first today with Douglas Mavrinac with Jeffries & Co. Douglas Mavrinac - Jeffries & Co.: I just have a few questions for you all, first, during your comments you talked about why the recent weakness and or what is the recent weakness in charterers attributable to but we have seen a significant rebound in chartering activity in the recent days, is there something specific that you guys point to as far as to why we have seen the switch turned on or is there an overall view that these factors that cause the weakness are temporary and that there is growing confidence that demand will rebound in the coming months?

Gerry Buchanan

Management

I think that is exactly it, I think there is a growing confidence that it was all temporary that we are now starting to rebound. Yeah, I mean Doug, keep in mind there has been a press release being put up by the court in Brazil that it should be up and going by February 19 and February 20. So the people see that coming on and what is interesting is you are now seeing a lot more activity as far as inquiring the time-charter long-term for vessels anywhere from one to even 10 years again. Douglas Mavrinac - Jeffries & Co.: And that I was going to ask John is that I see that you guys have I guess, by cutting our accounts, seven vessels will expire in the next couple of months, would you describe the interest level on those vessels as having accelerated and over the past several days?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, definitely. Douglas Mavrinac - Jeffries & Co.: Okay, and also you mentioned the Brazilian cargos, getting back online in mid-February, so you know, I would take it that the demand increase that we have seen is not necessarily because of this, but that could potentially still be around the corner.

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I mean I mean I am sure that they have started booking some of those cargos already, they obviously have those gains but if you kind of look at, what is going on, China is obviously going to have to start importing a lot more coal because of their issues. We are seeing a lot more coalers in general from the US gulf going into Europe and you are seeing a lot more coal imports going into India. I know upfront, we believe that Brazil to Chinese route is going to continue to add the tone miles. Once the terminal comes back on, but just in general, particularly if the Indians are successful in putting export access on their iron ore, it is just going to be more competitive for the Chinese team or from Brazil. Douglas Mavrinac - Jeffries & Co.: Great, and actually touches on one of my final two questions. What changes have you all seen in trading patterns as a result of the Chinese basically saying that they are going to quite exporting coal because of their shortages right now and when do you expect them to be, I guess return to normal, as for Australian loadings and South African loadings.

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

Big changes and trading problems, to be honest with you, you know, it is the same roots that our ships are trading and that we see in the market in general.

Gerry Buchanan

Management

Yes, and on the Australian side Doug, I think that could take a few months to work itself out, just because of the flooding issues in the mines it does take a long time to get those mines dry and get things going back up and going. Douglas Mavrinac - Jeffries & Co.: Okay, good. And then one final question, so you guys increased it, what are your current thoughts in that particular investment, that is all I have.

Gerry Buchanan

Management

We still love to see and like the position, obviously because we have added to it. We think it trades at a significant discount to the value of steel on the water today.

Operator

Operator

So next is Scott Burk with Bear Streams.

Scott Burk - Bear Streams

Management

Hi good morning guys, I want to follow up with more questions or another question about your chartering strategy for the next six months, you have 700,000 rolling off, like I have mentioned. What are your strategies, do we expect to see more shorter charges like you have done with the creditor or will you be looking for longer charges like on the Genco success?

Gerry Buchanan

Management

Our charting strategy overall has not changed, we are going to continue to focus on the one to three year markets for the Panamaxe, Panamaxe is on down, and probably the three to five year market for the cage. But we have over the last couple of months done, a few short term turns as you correctly pointed out and the reason for that is because we did not look of the long-term charter market a month ago. Things are starting to strengthen so, you know I think you will see a start to fix longer – on some of these ships but we were able to get very good rates on these three to five month charteres so we are pretty happy.

Scott Burk - Bear Streams

Management

Could you kind of describe what you guys are hearing about the iron ore negotiations, we saw the VHP news as well, does that mean they are still talking? Do you have anymore sense about what might be the result?

Gerry Buchanan

Management

Honestly Scott, no. I think the only people that really know what are going on or the guys setting it out on a negotiating table.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Jonathan Chappell with J.P. Morgan

Jonathan Chappell - J.P. Morgan

Management

Just two quick questions, first to Gerry, regarding that long period activity, it seemed like there had been a wall in some of the longer-term contracts, through the end of the last year and the beginning of this year, have you seen a pickup in interest, from charters to do the three and even like the five-year contracts that we have been seeing, a few most of ’07.

Gerry Buchanan

Management

I think John will touch on that on the last question. Yes, I mean, the market is getting harder and harder everyday at the moment and that we see a big interest in the longer term.

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

There are some good data points that were out there, there have been a couple of Capesize ships recently that have been fixed for five years. Access is $70,000.00, and if you think about it towards the height, I think that number was just above 75, so things are definitely looking pretty good right now.

Jonathan Chappell - J.P. Morgan

Management

Modeling question for John, is there any required department in 2008 or 2009, above what you need to pay back on the Trader after you finish to sell that?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

No, it is a non-advertising facility and quite frankly we do not actually have to pay that amount back on the trader, but that is something that we are anticipating doing.

Jonathan Chappell - J.P. Morgan

Management

Okay, so you expect to take them on the Trader but other than that, we would expect no significant debt reduction this year.

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

Well, I would not know, I would not say that, I think your question was do we have to. I would say, first of all on the Trader, we plan on paying back of approximately $43 million when that closes and that will be our first quarter event and then, you know, as cash flow provides we plan on reducing debt during 2008.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Natasha Boyden with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Natasha Boyden - Cantor Fitzgerald

Management

Regarding the $50 million dollar share, you mentioned that the board reviewed that further after 12 months. – of how the company wants to provide returns to the shareholders or is this just a matter of believing that the stock in value at present.

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

I think, any share repurchase program that we have in place now and going forward is obviously can be done on an opportunistic basis and it is a great tool that we have now in our disposal.

Natasha Boyden - Cantor Fitzgerald

Management

Okay, so it is really a question of believing that you think the stock is undervalued here?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

I think that again, not going into specifics on how the stock is right, obviously, the board wants to take a look at the potential device shares back, which is what we put in place, and we also had our banks agreed to allowing us to do that.

Natasha Boyden - Cantor Fitzgerald

Management

And some of the dividend, you have raised the dividend here almost 30% at the same time, implementing the shares about this program, can we look at this as perhaps you filling the asset prizes, or too high to provide to track the returns or you are still actively looking at growing the fleet?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

No, we are still actively looking at growing the fleet, I think the cash on cash numbers still make sense of these levels but as you are well aware, we are very patient and we wait to find the right transaction.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Omar Nokta with Dahlman Rose & Co. Omar Nokta - Dahlman Rose & Co.: With the buyback, you have mentioned that it would be subject to some restrictions on your credit facility, could you expand on that a little bit?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

There are really, two things, one , we obviously cannot be in the fall under the credit facility which we clearly are not. And two, we have a basket that we can use to purchase shares back. Omar Nokta - Dahlman Rose & Co.: Now that you have got the higher dividend, it still looks like you are going to be generating a lot more in cash flow this year; do you still plan on using your credit facility to fund your commitments for this year? Or would you rather use more catch?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

You will see it is drawn out of the credit facility for both of those transactions, the majority of it. I answered to John’s question, we clearly also, plan on repaying debt during 2008.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Urs Dur with Lazard

Urs Dur - Lazard Capital Markets

Management

I guess you guys have already commented fully on your Jinhui’s position, you are obviously very satisfied with that, but maybe can you give a little color or comment on the liquidity of budget and shares and have you seen improvement in Jinhui share liquidity over the last 6 to 8 months?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I mean as you look at the share volume numbers they are definitely up. No doubt about that. We still think that it is at least right now priced at a good discount to its net asset value, so we are happy.

Operator

Operator

We will go now to Gregg Louis with Credit Suisse Gregg Louis – Credit Suisse: I just want to talk about the slowdown in coal exports out of Australia, our miners, initially – at the ports were ample to supply near term coal exports so I guess the bigger question is you know, over the next few weeks, numbers sort of comes down, what areas do you expect to be the primary beneficiary of coal export, over the next few weeks into Southeast Asia?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

South Africa would be a beneficiary, you see more coal coming from South Africa to Southeast Asia. Gregg Louis – Credit Suisse: Given your close relationship with Jinhui? Did Jinhui consider shopping around this two new building very large or carrier contracts that they just simply terminated.

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

I do not know, you’ll have to ask them. Gregg Louis – Credit Suisse: In other words, they did not offer you to buy them?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

No.

Operator

Operator

Charles Rupinski - Maxim Group

Management

Just one quick question on other bolt trades, as it relates to Panamax market in general, do your have a view on sort of the great market as it goes forward to spring, and any other –bulks, that might be sort of a kicker to the market place that people are not talking about as much as they should?

John Wobensmith

Chief Financial Officer

Green market, we are seeing Soya bean, going trans Atlantic and also at Southeast Asia, the green market seems to be following the same, as Thailand has had in previous years. And the other minor bulks, nothing much of change, I have to be honest with you. They do not affect the Panamax market very much, it is mainly in the Handymax, and the Supramax as well but certainly not the Panamax.

Operator

Operator

Having no other questions in queue, this does conclude the Genco Shipping and Trading Ltd. Conference Call., we thank you for your participation. Have a nice day.