Anthony Pagano
Analyst · Peter Verdult from Citi
Thanks, Jan. Let's move to Slide 4. Before I get into the results and the guidance, I'm going to spend a moment reiterating our overarching financial framework because I think it provides a useful context against which to consider the impacts of COVID-19. First off, let's think about our revenue profile. On the left, you can see the component parts of our current and future recurring revenue streams. We are looking forward to the continued growth and expansion of DARZALEX. You can also see ofatumumab and TEPEZZA, and there's a lot to be excited about here. As we've heard from our potential partners, these are both potential blockbuster products, and we're really excited about the potential of adding 2 additional recurring revenue streams in the years to come. Next, on to R&D investment shown on the right. We'll continue to be focused and disciplined in our approach, and we're going to expand and accelerate our potential winners. As well as investing, we remain focused on the bottom line. In 2019, we delivered our seventh consecutive year of profitability, and we continue to have a strong balance sheet with a significant cash position and no debt. When we put this all together, we have a robust financial framework and a strong foundation to continue to execute against our 2025 vision. Of course, we're not immune to COVID-19, and I'll return to that shortly. But stepping back, what stands out for me from this overall framework is that at a time when growth may be hard to come by, Genmab is a resilient business with a very high-quality product pipeline and great growth prospects. With this context set, let's now take a closer look at an important component of our recurring revenue growth, DARZALEX sales on Slide 5. As you know, continued strong market growth led DARZALEX to near triple blockbuster status in 2019. For 2020, we anticipate that sales will continue to ramp up significantly. DARZALEX had continued strong market growth and share gains in the first quarter of 2020, with worldwide net sales of $937 million, a 49% increase over sales in the first quarter of 2019. This translates to DKK 775 million in royalty income for Genmab. So DARZALEX is on a clear path to market leadership in multiple myeloma. It's really continuing to deliver for us, and you can see that in the Q1 revenues on Slide 6. A revenue breakdown by category is shown on the left of this slide. The largest contributor to the increase in revenue is a good illustration of our key theme of recurring revenue growth. DARZALEX royalties grew more than 50% compared to the first quarter of 2019. Additional drivers for our Q1 revenue were milestones and reimbursement income related to additional partnership agreements. As well as investing - as well as increasing revenues, we also increased investment in our pipeline, in our team and in our capabilities, as you can see on the next slide. On the graph on the left, you can see the major drivers of our increased investment in Q1. In total, operating expenses increased by DKK 204 million, which was driven by the accelerated investment in our product portfolio, including the advancement of both epcoritamab and DuoBody-PD-L1x4-1BB, which together accounted for more than 80% of the increase in Q1. We've also spent more on expanding our very talented team. We have hired key team members to support our growing product pipeline, and we've continued to build our commercial and other capabilities. Our revenue growth outpaced the higher investment levels, driving DKK 71 million of operating income. Overall, this is a great illustration of the robust financial framework that I described earlier. Now having looked at the individual parts, let's look at our Q1 financials as a whole. Here, you will see a P&L summary. In Q1, revenue came in at DKK 892 million, an increase of 51% compared to Q1 2019. The increase was primarily driven by higher DARZALEX royalties. Total expenses in Q1 were DKK 821 million, with 87% being R&D and 13% G&A. Operating income was DKK 71 million compared to an operating loss of DKK 26 million in the first quarter of 2019, primarily driven by higher revenue. That brings us to the net result, where we reported net income of nearly DKK 269 million compared to DKK 72 million in the same period last year. So a strong Q1 both in terms of our overall numbers and DARZALEX sales, but of course, that preceded COVID-19. So let's turn to that on the next slide. As we enter Q2, we've started to see some softness in sales of DARZALEX. Clearly, patient visits have become more difficult, and some newly diagnosed patients are delaying the start of treatment. According to IMS data, U.S. sales of DARZALEX on a gross basis are down around 15% to approximately $40 million per week compared to the 4-week average at the end of March. As you know, sales in the rest of the world are a bit more challenging to unpack as they cover many countries being impacted by COVID-19, and our line of sight here is more limited. However, given the seriousness of multiple myeloma, patients with active disease need treatment to avoid progression or worse. Ultimately, patients who are foregoing treatment now will still need to be treated soon. So on balance, we believe what we're currently seeing is likely to be a temporary delay rather than any fundamental disruption. And based on the very strong clinical data of DARZALEX, supporting the 7 approved indications in the United States as well as the approval of the subcu version last week, we currently expect that sales will recover in H2, which brings me to our guidance on Slide 10. Despite some headwinds, at this stage, the guidance we issued in February remains intact. As a reminder and starting with the summary P&L, we expect our revenue to be in the range of DKK 4.75 billion to DKK 5.15 billion, driven by continued growth of DARZALEX. We anticipate our 2020 operating expenses to be in the range of DKK 3.85 billion to DKK 3.95 billion. This step up in investment reflects our enthusiasm for our pipeline. Our project costs account for more than half of our total investment and are also driving more than half of the growth of our cost base. In fact, 87% of the increase in our project investment relates specifically to epcoritamab and DuoBody-PD-L1x4-1BB, the 2 programs we are looking to expand and accelerate in 2020. Putting all this together, we're planning for substantial operating income in 2020 in a range of DKK 0.85 billion to DKK 1.25 billion. Now let's zoom in on DARZALEX. The key drivers underpinning DARZALEX' growth remain very much in place, notwithstanding COVID-19. As a reminder, the key drivers are: first, following the MAIA and other approvals in 2019, we expect further market share gains in frontline. Second, the recent approval of the subcu formulation. We believe this approval is even more important given the clear advantages of subcu delivery in the current environment. And third, we anticipate continued strong market shares across all lines of therapy and geographies as DARZALEX gains further traction globally. So for 2020, we anticipate that sales will continue to grow somewhere between 30% and 43% and be in the range of $3.9 billion and $4.2 billion. Now I will move to my final slide. Clearly, in the short term, COVID-19 is affecting everyone's lives. But in conclusion, I think in times like this, it's useful to take a step back and reflect on our business and financial position. We have a very strong foundation. We have great recurring revenues, and they're growing. And we're using those revenues to invest in a really focused and disciplined way. We're investing in both our highly innovative and differentiated product pipeline as well as the team to deliver it. And especially important in today's environment, we've got a robust balance sheet, $1.9 billion of cash at the end of Q1 and no debt. Now I'll turn it back over to Jan for an update on our 2020 goals.