Earnings Labs

General Motors Company (GM)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 6, 2020

$76.29

-3.39%

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Transcript

Rocky Gupta

Management

Good morning. Thanks for being here. So welcome to the 2020 General Motors Capital Markets Day. Our press release, presentation and earnings material are available on the GM Investor Relations website. We’re also broadcasting today’s event via webcast. Before we begin, I need to take care of a couple of housekeeping items. First, safety is a top priority for us at GM so please take a moment to look at the two exit doors so in the unlikely event of an emergency, you can access them quickly.Second, note our forward-looking statements. All the discussion today, including the Q&A, will be governed by this language. It’s going to be an exciting day so let’s get started.

Mary Barra

Management

Well, welcome, everybody. I’m really excited to have this opportunity to share General Motors’ story today. The video you just saw captures our energy, our passion and our confidence as we transform the company and create a world with zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion. This vision drives every team member every day. And we are really enthusiastic about the opportunity we have created to refine the future, redefine the future of personal transportation and all the possibilities that come with it.Here’s a brief overview of what we’ll cover today. Mark will start and provide an update on the reinvention of the Global Product Development organization. He will also showcase some of our dramatic new launches, including Cadillac and the Escalade that was revealed last evening, and he’ll give us a preview of our electric vehicle strategy.Barry will cover our truck and full-sized SUV franchise and our 2020 launches as we’re very excited to launch at the full-size SUVs from Chevrolet from GMC and from Cadillac. And Matt, President of our China operation, will cover his update and perspectives on the continuing and evolving macroeconomic situation in China as well as the measures General Motors China is taking to address them and the strong foundation we have and intend to build on because we see a long-term opportunity in China.Now Matt arrived in the States late last week and out of an abundance of caution, he will actually – we have taped his remarks and we will show those to you and he will dial-in for the actual Q&A session. Steve Kiefer, who newly took over our GMI region, will talk about our team’s plan to improve performance in our GM international markets and give an update on the early days launch of our global family of vehicles product,…

Mark Reuss

Management

Well, good morning, everybody, and thanks, Mary. And I got to tell you, as an engineer, there’s a lot in the future. These are great days because I get to actually talk about what we’ve been working on and then what we’re getting ready to execute. So I’m really happy to be here. I’m happy you’re here and thanks for tuning in, those of you tuning in.Mary covered a lot of ground and I’m going to try to amplify some of her comments. But I’d like to point out one connecting thread woven through the tapestry of the subjects she covered, and that is this company is still doing what we said we were going to do. For instance, last year at this event, we said we were going to begin the transformation of our Global Product Group. We made a lot of progress. We took out a significant amount of structural cost and we’re still engineering and designing the future of everything every day. And we’re doing it in a new culture, Mary touched on this a little bit.Yes, we saved a lot of money but the impact of this transformation goes beyond the bottom line by creating and sustaining this new corporate culture that we’re trying to foster right now. We consolidated teams. We integrated the propulsion and vehicle engineers, the hardware and software engineers and created a true one-team mentality. If you think back about this, our company has always had propulsion in a separate location from vehicle engineering and software engineering in another location. So we’ve done that. We knocked down the barriers between the groups and reorganized to keep them from being rebuilt.We created a strong centralized engineering workforce that can leverage talent from across the enterprise and across the globe. This eliminated the situations…

Barry Engle

Management

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for being with us. In our time together this morning, I’d like to do several things. First, I want to give you an update on our 2019 share performance and talk a bit about how we’re navigating some of the segment shifts that are occurring in the industry. Then we’re going to deep dive trucks to discuss how we’re thinking about and managing that really important part of the business. And we’ll end on what’s to come in 2020, including our full-size SUV launches. What we saw last year was a continuation of the segment shifts that are reshaping our industry. Customers keep moving out of traditional sedans to crossovers and SUVs as well as trucks and vans. And GM’s strategy to manage these changes has been to pivot, discontinuing 10 car nameplates and reconfiguring our manufacturing footprint, while at the same time strengthening our lineup of crossovers, SUVs and trucks.As a result of this proactive refocusing of our portfolio, we significantly reduced our 2019 retail car sales in the U.S. while increasing our sales in the other more profitable growth segments. In the case of crossovers and SUVs, we delivered record retail sales and share, further increasing our number one leadership position in this segment. Similarly, in trucks and vans, we also increased retail sales and maintained our number one leadership position. So in aggregate, our U.S. retail share was essentially flat year-over-year, maintaining our position as the best-selling OEM. I think we’ve managed to pivot pretty well. We were able to hold total retail share despite giving up a full point to discontinued cars and despite significant production losses, both from the strike as well as our full-size truck changeover.Now the reason that we’re so focused on the retail business…

Rocky Gupta

Management

Okay. Let’s get restarted. So, as Mary mentioned earlier, Matt Tsien was going to be here in person, but out of an abundance of caution, we decided to pretape his message. He is feeling absolutely fine and he’ll be joining us by phone for the Q&A session. So let me turn it over to the taping of Matt.

Matt Tsien

Management

It’s a pleasure for me to speak with you today to give you an update on GM in China and to share with you our plan for sustained development here. After two decades of continuous growth, China’s vehicle market has entered a transition period with challenges that is putting pressure on our profitability, leading to lower equity income from our China operations. Regulatory pressures on fuel economy standards and new energy vehicles continue to increase. The investment required for our new energy vehicle programs and fuel-saving technologies is considerable.Although we haven’t seen a direct impact on our performance that is directly attributable to the prolonged trade tension between the U.S. and China, we know that it is hurting the Chinese economy and ultimately, weakening consumer confidence. And China’s currency, the renminbi, remains weak versus prior years. This has had a negative impact on the translation of our earnings into U.S. dollars. While these challenges were widely anticipated, the recent coronavirus outbreak is unexpected and is likely to put further pressure on China’s economy. Prior to the virus outbreak, we had estimated the industry would be slightly down in 2020. We now expect additional near-term volume impact. GM’s target is to perform in line with the industry in 2020.Generally speaking, we expect to see earnings from our China business grow along with industry recovery. China remains the world’s largest vehicle market. Cyclical downturns are normal in mature markets, so it’s no surprise for cyclicality to develop in a market that has witnessed nearly two decades of continuous growth. Having said that, we still believe this market can grow to well over 30 million units annually in the coming years. We’re leveraging our strong business foundation built over the past two decades, combined with China’s scale, to achieve success for the long…

Steve Kiefer

Management

Well, thank you to Matt’s recording, and welcome to all of you. A special welcome to our international sites that are joining us by webcast today. It’s really a pleasure and an honor for me to be leading this GMI team and to be here presenting to you. For these next couple of minutes, I’m going to talk a little bit about where we’ve been, what our plans are this year and where we’re headed in our GMI international markets.As Mary mentioned, I was named to this role in the fourth quarter of last year. Previously, I was leading our global purchasing and supply chain team and really interacting closely with all of our suppliers around the world. In my opinion, the best automotive supply base in the industry. And of course, we’re going to count on those suppliers as our partners as we move to profitability in all of these international sites.So just by definition, at General Motors, we define GM International as all of our operations outside of North America and excluding China. We participate in over 60 markets that stretch from one side of the globe to the other, including South America, some key strategic markets in Europe, Africa, Middle East and of course, some key markets in Asia, again, excluding China. Every one of these markets is unique and every one offers us some very interesting opportunities.In 2019, in these markets, we delivered 1.3 million vehicles and generated $16 billion in net sales across these markets, spanning four of our General Motors brands. Now from a profitability standpoint, the last few years have been very challenging, driven by especially in South America and also some transformation efforts and costs that are now beginning to pay off in these international markets. I’m really excited to enter into…

Dan Ammann

Management

Okay. Hi everyone. At Cruise, we have a point of view that the cost of transportation today is too high. It costs us too many lives, it costs too much time, it costs us too much money and it costs us too much impact to the planet. And we have equal conviction that self-driving technology deployed at large scale in an all-electric and shared mode is the single most powerful thing that we can do to reduce that cost of transportation that we have today. And so it’s our mission at Cruise to make that technology as safe as possible and get it deployed as rapidly as possible so that we can have the impact of saving millions of lives that are lost on the road every year, make the impact of reshaping our cities and making them more livable for humans instead of setting aside a lot of space for cars and make the impact of giving people back billions of hours of their time that they spend stuck behind the wheel of the car every year and make the impact of making transportation more accessible and more affordable for everybody.The scope of the mission that we’re on, however, is very, very significant, and it is not for the faint of heart. Just getting to the minimum viable product, that initial vehicle that can drive more safely than a human is probably the engineering challenge of our generation and it takes a major commitment of resources to get us just to that point in time. And that’s why we’ve configured Cruise the way we have over the last few years. We’re assembling a team of thousands of the world’s very best engineers. We’ve put together several billion dollars of capital to support us on the journey. We have very…

Rocky Gupta

Management

Okay. So I have a feeling that this is the kind of crowd that likes to see numbers after lunch. So the finance guy and an engineer that warms my heart, so let’s get seated back again. What we’ll do is we’ll have a short video and followed by that, we’ll have Dhivya Suryadevara.

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

Good afternoon, and thanks, everyone, for being here today. So in my section, I’d like to talk about two main topics. Firstly, I want to talk about our calendar year 2019 performance and our outlook for 2020; I want to give you more color on that. And importantly, I want to pull together what you heard today and give you a framework on how to think about our business in my second part of the presentation.So let’s get started. 2019 was an eventful year. We had a share of challenges, but I also think we had a number of opportunities that we capitalized on that allowed us to deliver the results that we did. So let’s take a quick look at what worked and what some of the challenges were.You heard a lot about trucks today and crossovers and the performance of our new launches. That was an important tailwind as we think about our performance in 2019. The cost savings we announced in November of 2018 remain on track. In fact, in the calendar year 2019, we were ahead of track and we remain on track for the rest of the calendar year 2020 to deliver what we committed to.GM Financial was a bright spot from a performance standpoint. The business continues to grow and generate record levels of profitability. And finally, from a cultural standpoint, I’ve been talking to you about cash and cash conversion for about a year now. And I think the results we have demonstrated and what we predict for 2020, I think really demonstrate the commitment of the entire team on this very important metric. And I’ll talk more about that later in the presentation.Let’s talk about the challenges. The strike had a meaningful impact on 2019 results. The China business you heard Matt…

Rocky Gupta

Management

Thank you. Dhivya. I’m going to request all the speakers from today to come onto the stage for the Q&A. If you have a question, please raise your hand and we’ll get a mic to you. Just wanted to remind everyone again that the Investor Relations team is available to address any additional questions you may have, especially any detailed questions on the numbers. And what I’d suggest is that to use our time most efficiently today, we focus on some of the more strategic questions for the people on the stage today. And Matt will be joining us on phone also. So, we’ll get him dialed in.Let’s get started. First question, Rod. Rod Lache.

Rod Lache

Management

Thanks. Rod Lache from Wolfe Research. Three questions. First, maybe just a quick housekeeping, Dhivya, if you can just clarify. In your guidance, how much working capital you’ve anticipated in your free cash flow and the buybacks, whether those are incorporated into the guidance.

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

From a working capital standpoint, while we would expect some rewind of sales allowances from a strike recovery perspective, we expect that will be offset, Rod, by other working capital items, including industry impact and timing. So, we’ve had no tailwind assumed in our free cash flow guidance from that. And your second question was...

Rod Lache

Management

And the buybacks...

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

Well, the buybacks is a use of the free cash flow. So, we expect that out of the $6 billion to $7.5 billion we generate. We would replenish our cash balance to the tune of $2 billion to $3 billion, and the remaining towards buyback and other uses.

Rod Lache

Management

So that’s built into your EPS guidance.

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

Yes.

Rod Lache

Management

Okay. And then just focusing on the international businesses. I was hoping that maybe you could be a little bit clearer on the GMI turnaround. How much of this you’re going from about $1.3 billion loss to a profit is actually exiting products – or, exiting markets, how much of it is product, and then, if Matt is on the line, maybe talk a little bit about the China business and why we should believe that that business is kind of stabilizing and improving. It’s been losing some market share. It’s down to about $200 million a quarter of profitability, mapped, and the recorded remarks mentioned a number of headwinds and spending. Is it just underperformance related to powertrain that’s been corrected? Or is there something else here that we can look at and say that now it should start to perform in line with the rest of the industry?

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

Steve, do you want to take the GMI question?

Steve Kiefer

Management

Yes, sure. I would say that there is sort of a – we’ve talked about $2 billion. There is about $0.5 billion in this improved product that we’ve talked about that was in my slides, the new vehicles. And then I would say the remainder is a combination of cost cutting and restructuring that’s been in the plan.

Mary Barra

Management

Matt, are you on the line?

Matt Tsien

Management

Yes, I am. So thanks, Rod, for your question. Can you hear me?

Rocky Gupta

Management

Yes. We can hear you, Matt.

Matt Tsien

Management

Great. Okay. Let me sort of start with 2019 and just sort of put it in context. So, in 2019, our performance was certainly impacted by industry factors in terms of the industry downturn and the China V to China VI transition, which put a lot of pricing pressure on the industry. But there were also a number of unique, I would say, company factors that you alluded to, Rod. I mean, at SGM, I would say the most significant company level factor is the challenges with customer acceptance on 3-cylinder engines with some of our customers. So the launches did not deliver the results we expected.And, as I mentioned in my remarks, we’re reacting quickly, and a number of the products will begin to have 4-cylinders as options as early as second quarter of this year. At SGMW, the key issue was the transition of the Baojun to a higher brand position. This is absolutely the right thing to do for the long-term. But as the plan pivots there are transition issues that impacted SGMW’s performance.Looking into 2020, we expect that the industry downturn will continue. There will be increased fuel economy pressures and NEV pressures that will impact the industry as a whole and our performance as well. And then there is the additional fairly heavy investment cycle that we’re into to deliver any of these for the future. So, we expect that our performance will continue to be challenged in 2020 and probably for the next couple of years. As we get through this investment cycle and with the industry recovery, we do expect that our equity income will pick up once again.

Rod Lache

Management

Thank you.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Next, Joe Spak. I think you had a question?

Joe Spak

Management

Maybe, just to follow on quickly from Rod’s question on South America or on GMI. The $2 billion improvement, $1 billion was from South America that other $1 billion, does that consider some of those additional restructuring actions you talked about from that use of cash? Or would that be – is that further restructuring or exits in GMI?

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

Yes. It would be – to the extent, there’s restructurings, it would be a use of cash, like we’ve talked about previously. The $2 billion is – think about it as a run rate on how we would make 5% margin on that business on an ongoing basis as opposed to the $1.2 billion or $1.3 billion we’ve lost in 2018.

Joe Spak

Management

Okay. And then Mark, on the BEV3 platform, I think versus that graphic that you showed prior, you’ve added the pickup truck versus prior years – did something change there that allowed you to add to pickups to that platform versus your prior thinking that maybe, you need a stand-alone platform? And maybe, just at a very high level, you could tell us why you think you can sort of do this all more modular, because I think some of your competitors are building more specific platforms for different sizes and types of vehicles.

Mark Reuss

Management

Yes. We started a while ago, looking at the fundamental cell content pouch versus prismatic, versus the height of the floors of different models. So, what you saw in that animation indicated that we had everything from a low floor entry with different wheel bases to a mid-floor entry. I’m talking about height-wise to a high-floor entry, which we would have for the BET.And so as we’ve been architecting that, we’ve been looking and trying to match the market desires to the architecture, and the cell – the basic cells are pretty much all the same. The only difference it will have is if you’re in China, we would do one type of cell structure and we’ll get into this on the EV day, but we do it in North America, it’s a different type of cell structure. But the partners are all in place. The chemistries have been developed and vertically integrated, and that drives a different I think definition of what architecture was and what it is.And so our architecture is really around the cell and the orientation of the cell in the pack as you saw, the electric motors, we’ve got at least three different electric motors that will be vertically integrated in the power structure for that. And then the power electronics and the global B part of it and the backbone will all be common. So, those are the big cost drivers and what is a new architecture for electric vehicles versus stampings, floor pans, rockers, chassis, pickup points, control arms. Those are all things that used to define an architecture, because they are the high-cost internal capital spends on a volume basis for a plant.And so it’s very different. As we were architecting the first BEV, which looked like a crossover, we really started looking at what else can we do and how can we do it. And you’ve only seen sort of the first models of BET architecture. There is another version of our BEV3 architecture that you’ll see on EV Day, and I’ll leave that as a surprise. So, if that helps frame it up a little bit. Very different.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Next, move on Emmanuel Rosner.

Emmanuel Rosner

Management

Thank you. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. First question for Dan Ammann. Very refreshing to see you so bullish, optimistic about the opportunity. A lot of the other players that I have spoken recently were generally more cautious, maybe, the timeline getting pushed out and a lot of – the asset valuations coming down quite meaningfully. For us sitting on the outside, we don’t have the benefit of being able to examine or test your technology. I guess what should we look for to know that this is real? What do you have that the others don’t? And what kind of milestone can we track going forward?

Dan Ammann

Management

Well, I think the fundamental goal that most of our energy is behind now is this objective of reaching a superhuman level of safety performance, and that’s as I went through in my talk, that’s where most of the energy is and it’s where we’re making incredibly rapid progress. As I said, we’re pretty far along in reaching that level of performance. We can see where we need to get to and we think we have the tools in place to close out that last step.As I mentioned, it’s difficult to predict exactly what the timeline is, because we’re out on the very long tail of a sort of an exponential problem and we have incredibly powerful tools that we’re bringing to those long tail issue. And so precise timing predictions are tricky. But we feel that that is something we can see from here. And again, that’s just the starting point. What happens once you reach that point is where things get more and more interesting.In terms of what are we doing that’s different from some others, I think one of the things that’s really helped us all the way along is testing in a very complex operating domain. We also do some testing in a simpler environment and we know how much this helps us relative to this. So that’s been really powerful.And then I’d say secondly, this whole idea that the Company has been built around rate of improvement as a core product of what we do and building the infrastructure to allow us to move incredibly quickly and iterate more rapidly – and I showed you lots of examples of how we’re doing that. And so I don’t know exactly how others are thinking about that or doing it, but we have the core product of the technology stack we’re building, and then we have another equally important product of building the infrastructure that allows us to get really rapidly.

Emmanuel Rosner

Management

And then just the housekeeping for Dhivya if I may. So, the earnings walks are extremely helpful. If I wanted to zoom in on GMNA specifically, so you’re guiding for earnings up even versus ex-strike last year. So, call it more than $11.8 billion this year, very strong performance. Could you maybe, talk a little bit about the puts and takes? I mean, I assume the rebuild of inventory will not be part of that walk, because last year was – the starting point is ex-strike. So, what are the puts and takes and how should we think about that?

Dhivya Suryadevara

Management

So, the way to think about it, I’d say, is what you saw in that slide on the GM specific factors, the puts and takes on that primarily impact North America. So, you can take those as North American specific items. Tailwinds, the new launches and full year of heavy duties and full year of light duties and cost saves, which predominantly impact North America positively. On the headwind side, full-size SUV downtime is what impacts North America the most. And I mentioned about 30,000 units roughly on a strike adjusted basis and depreciation – that’s a non-cash item, but that’s – put all that together, North America positive.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Thanks, Dhivya. Itay? Joe, can you get the mic to Itay?

Itay Michaeli

Management

Great. Thank you. Itay Michaeli from Citi. Two questions on Cruise for Dan. The first is in the slide referring to moving people, Dan, you mentioned possibly for tech partnerships. I was hoping you could elaborate on that. Would that potentially exclude some partnerships with rideshare companies? Or is that not in the plan? And then secondly, you mentioned that the competitive field is now thinning out. I was hoping you could talk about how many, without maybe naming names – or feel free to, how many competitors do you see that are viably competing with Cruise?

Dan Ammann

Management

So, on the first one, on the tech partnerships thing, I think that it’s sort of – it’s something we’re just kind of reserving as we look at global markets and that have different existing market configurations. There could be places where partnership makes more sense than the sort of the core plan that we have of going vertically integrated.And then in terms of the field thinning out, I think this has happened over the last – I don’t know, 18 months to 24 months, and I think as people have realized that this is not something you can do with 10 or 20 or 50 people and $10 million of venture capital, it’s just a much bigger challenge than that and a much bigger scope of problem to work on. And so I think in California there were at one point more than 60 licenses that have been issued for self-driving testing, and I don’t think when the dust settles here, there’ll be 60 companies that have really delivered mission critical safety system and that drives with superhuman level of performance at a cost point that makes it work and an experience that makes it work from a customer point of view.

Itay Michaeli

Management

Just a follow-up, maybe housekeeping for Dhivya. Back to the large SUVs, if you can – the mention of the headwind this year and also the potential – and how you think about the opportunity in 2021, particularly some of the new trims like AT4 that Barry talked about in his presentation. Kind of how should we think about the variable profit opportunity on this platform after the launch?

Dhivya Suryadevara

Operator

So your first question about 30,000 units on a strike adjusted basis. So, if we didn’t have SUV down during because of the strike, the delta between what you’re going to see in 2020 versus 2019 would be 30,000 down. So hopefully that helps. And, Itay, IHS has it roughly at the right level. So if that helps us another data point, that’s another way to look at it. And in terms of profitable trims beyond 2020, AT4 and others, I’d say better profits than average, and I will leave it at that.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. John Murphy, I think – yeah go ahead.

John Murphy

Analyst

Thanks very much. If we look back at 2019, I mean I appreciate the attempt to pro forma the numbers for your earnings. But the reality is what happened in 2019 happened, and if you look at the volume, it’s probably more indicative of something that would have produced in a low 15 million unit environment. So you essentially just put up almost $5 in earnings in a low 15 million unit environment. You’re talking about another $1 billion of cost saves in your $4 billion to $4.5 billion plan. Plus, you’re talking about some potential improvement in GMI of $2 billion.So, just curious when you roll all that stuff together, it adds a lot of credence to the idea that you just talked about a breaking even at 10 million to 11 million units and actually maybe even then some. So I’m just curious if you kind of update us where you sit on your thoughts on sort of break-even in – it seems like you are going to do couple of bucks, at least to the next downturn. I was trying to understand how you’re thinking about that.

Dhivya Suryadevara

Operator

Yeah, John, I think that’s a really good way to think about it because if you look at the strike impacted results of $4.82 which we put up in 2019, that was after taking into account the impact of about 320,000 units down because of strike. When you market share adjust it, it translates to industry being down about 2 million units. And so the thinking about it as a curve from our earnings at 17 million units to our 25% downturn scenario, this matches quite nicely with what you would expect in an industry down. So to your point, it does validate the downturn thesis.With the actions we’ve taken, we’ve maintained the 10 million to 11 million breakeven point for North America. I would say we were probably hovering in the higher end of that range, and with the cost savings we’ve come closer to the lower end of the range. And as we continue to strengthen the business and the rest of the operations around the globe, our downturn scenario looks better because you have fewer cash burning operations around the globe. So I’d say, yes, it grants some credence to the downturn thesis and you will see us address some of the other problematic areas which should be better for downturn protection as well.

John Murphy

Analyst

Okay. And then just a second question around the subscriptions. I know it’s sort of a TBD when Dan will deliver Cruise – we’re waiting for that and we want it now, and that’s a big part of – that’s sort of an incremental subscription opportunity for you. But you have incremental opportunities that appears on some of the more near-term things like OnStar and OTA updates as you get to sort of this digital platform that, Mark, you were talking about.So, just curious if you can give us sort of where OnStar sits right now, where that could potentially go, and as you get this digital platform in place, could we see a lot more subscription opportunity sort of in the near term. And then Dan, what do you think the potential that you could bring to the table over time to the subscriptions? And is this recurring revenue outside of just the simple rideshare model from Cruise that you guys are kind of alluding to?

Mark Reuss

Management

Yes, let me take the OnStar question and the idea of paid on-hand, it’s new opportunities, new businesses that may not exist today. We’ve been really excited about our OnStar business and the growth that we’ve seen there. Today, we’ve got about 20 million vehicles that are on the road, and only about a quarter of those are connected and paying subscription. We also have a very limited portfolio of products that we sell. Essentially, there are three. And so – and even with all those constraints that I’ve just described, this is a business that has been growing really nicely for us. And so, if we think about over the course of time, the vehicle part will continue to grow. The 25% subscription could be something significantly higher than that. And the portfolio can be quite a bit larger.And so, we’re engaged right now with customers and with the product development organization and trying to figure out what are those products and services that are most interesting to the customers and how do you bundle those up and how do you put them onto the vehicle, how do you sell them, how do you go to market. And we see a very nice opportunity there with a fundamentally different margin profile than today’s hardware business. And so, I think as we go forward over the course of time, it is an area that we do want to talk to you about.

Dan Ammann

Management

And on the Cruise side, I’d say the – we’ve all grown accustomed to the sort of pay-per-ride demand pricing environment around rideshare. I think that’s one way to do this. I think there are lots of other interesting models in terms of how you engage customers now you have them sign up and pay. It’s obviously very early days, but I think there is a – it’s a pretty wide open field of opportunity there.

John Murphy

Analyst

And then just one quick one. I mean, on the luxury SUV market in China is gangbusters. And you said it’s great. You have the best luxury SUV in the world in the Escalade. Are we ever going to see the Escalade in China? It seems like a huge incremental opportunity for you. I mean, obviously it’s larger than most stuff that’s over there, but the Mercedes S-Class sells at similar price points, which just seems like a natural chance to take and try and develop that business in China?

Mary Barra

Management

Does Matt want to take that or I can take it?

Rocky Gupta

Management

Yes. Matt, did you hear the question? It was about the potential for Escalade in China.

Matt Tsien

Management

Yes, I’d be happy to address that. First of all, Cadillac has done extremely well over the last several years and we expect that to continue to perform very well. I think the other trend that’s happening China is the movement toward larger SUVs. A couple of years ago, the largest SUVs in the market were probably what we would call C segment SUVs. And now C segment SUVs are gaining acceptance. So there is a movement toward larger vehicles. Certainly we’ll not rule out the potential for something like Escalade.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Thanks, Matt. Adam? Adam Jonas?

Adam Jonas

Analyst

Thank you. So, I have a question for Mark and I have a question for Mary, but first a comment. I noticed that you were videotaping today’s Investor Day. It’d be great if someone could send that tape to Ford in Dearborn. I’m serious. I’ll hand deliver it myself to them if you don’t send it to them. Your team is really airtight. I think you should be very proud of this presentation you gave. It’s a kick-ass management team up here in front of us. You are executing. You’re clearly not getting the credit. I know you deserve it. And I think many investors in the room deserve. But over time you keep doing this and you execute on even two-thirds of what you’re talking about and it’s going to happen. So I just had to get that out there.Mark, first question for you. Can you confirm are EVs a tailwind? And specifically, I remember a year ago when you talked about getting out a hybrids and people thought you were crazy.

Mark Reuss

Management

You didn’t.

Adam Jonas

Analyst

I didn’t. It’s not looking so crazy. I mean, can you describe maybe in financial terms or just order of magnitude how much easier – how much better life is when you don’t have to architecture those complications into the business?

Mark Reuss

Management

Yes, I think it’s a great question. The hybrid piece of this – when we look at this – and we look at what it takes to bring a plug-in hybrid, a traditional hybrid, any of those to market where you’re carrying an internal combustion engine and an electrification propulsion system and you have to make them work together and you have to certify – you still have to certify, you still have to crash, you still have to pay money to carry two propulsion systems on board, I just, from a physics and engineering standpoint, can’t get my head around making money doing that in the long-haul even as a stop gap. Even as – I mean, I’m bragging of Volt, okay. I can tell you I love the Volt. By the way, I was one of the early buyers of the Volt.So that was great too, and I get a lot of emails from Volt buyers and I get it. But at the end of the day, if we can get the battery chemistry vertically integrated correct and cost effective and our control systems have taken everything we’ve learned from Volt and Bolt on how to use the battery to get more range and more cost-effective. At the end of the day, the customer is going to be much, much happier doing a pure EV than a stop gap that you still have to plug it in sometimes and then hard to understand. I mean, honestly they’re hard to understand. And so we know that because we’ve done it and we’ve done it reasonably successfully over a pretty long period of time.So, all that customer data plus the cost basis plus the engineering basis – and I told you last year, if I had another dollar of R&D from our company, I would spend it on getting the anode and cathode and the chemistry of our batteries better.

Mary Barra

Management

I’ll give you a dollar.

Mark Reuss

Management

Oh yes. No, Mary. Thank you. And then everybody, thank you very much. We have really done a great job. So, anyway, that is a very impassioned speech about a very long answer to your question, but that’s the way I feel, the way I do.

Adam Jonas

Analyst

Okay. And my final question for our CEO and Chairman, Mary. At the beginning of this presentation, I was really struck by the comments about the opportunity that GM has – I stress opportunity – to really help decarbonize the fleet, decarbonize your operations and show a rate of change that is clearly resonating with everybody at the margin, investors, your customers, regulators, governments, everybody. Would you consider, given your role as Chairman, would you consider tying a portion of management compensation, if not a significant portion, to GM’s ability to show that progress of CO2 reduction? Because I kind of have this sneaking suspicion that you can show a lot of progress quite within your wheelhouse and then it would be outstanding for your business.

Mary Barra

Management

So the way our compensation system is set up, in our short-term incentive plan, 25% of it is individual performance. And I can tell you that achieving the metrics we’ve put for ourselves are incorporated not into just mine or the appropriate people who sit next to me but even deeper in the organization. So as we look at that that is definitely something we regularly report to the Board. And we’re stepping back and we’re looking and say, if you look at Scope 1 and Scope 2, very well under way. Dane Parker who runs our sustainable workplaces organization that just became our Chief Sustainability Officer, we’ve been on this journey for a while. And so we sit in very good shape.But we have to look at Scope 3 because right now we build ICE vehicles and we’ve looked at what are the different routes, and clearly the best fastest way to have the least impact on the environment is to EVs. And that’s another reason in addition to the technical and the fact that customers don’t understand and it’s more costly, is getting to EVs and doing it in a way that customers want to buy them as opposed to being regulated to sell them and then find the buyer. That’s our mission and that’s what we’re on. But I would tell you that it’s already incorporated – along with several other goals, but it’s already incorporated into the metrics the Board holds me accountable for and the organization.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Let’s move to Ryan, Ryan Brinkman.

Ryan Brinkman

Analyst

Great. Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan. Thanks for taking my question, and thank you for the disclosure that your trucks business generates roughly $65 billion of revenue at a mid to high teens adjusted EBIT margin. I think that helps to underscore for investors the attractiveness of your trucks business. And I’m not sure if that math is so simple, but it also underscores the fact that you’re generating something like $11.5 billion of EBIT there assuming 17.5% of margin which essentially approximates all of your profit in North America, a region which has another $40 billion of revenue.So, can you talk about your plans to increase the margins and returns for your non-trucks business? And do you think there may be scope for additional rationalization of the passenger car lineup beyond that which was communicated in the November 2018 restructuring announcement?

Dhivya Suryadevara

Operator

Yes. So just to frame up the North American operations and the various different vehicle lines, I’d say from a passenger car standpoint, Ryan, the step we took in November of 2018 takes us quite a bit far in terms of taking us away from the segments that we’re not generating an appropriate level of return. If you look at passenger cars, with the exception of Cadillac, where we have a couple of vehicles, as well as Corvette which does make money – and a couple of those vehicles – it’s basically that. There’s no more passenger cars really in the lineup in North America. In its other markets, as Steve talked about, we’re working on getting those to profitability.And within crossovers, it’s multiple different stories, depending on which segment do you look at. Our mid crossovers earn a very healthy level of return. Compact and small crossovers are more challenged with the pricing pressures we’ve seen. And what Mark talked about earlier from a complexity standpoint, if you think about the parts we’ve eliminated, how we’re getting it all into fewer architectures and how we’re getting material costs down and some of the brand work that Barry is doing from a – getting the ATPs of Chevrolet and GMC and Cadillac up, I think those are on a path as well. We clearly have more work to do, but we will continue doing that work.And internationally, you’ve seen all the other cash burning businesses which are also on a path to profitability. So it is our goal to diversify the profitability overall and get that to – not all of them will get to truck level margins, obviously, but they will get to their appropriate level of margin.

Mark Reuss

Management

I think it’s important to note on that too, as Dhivya mentioned, in addition to what we talked about earlier is we’re now entering into a second term of these architectures, where we already spent the money to get the mass out the first turn. And so everything that comes online here has a much higher reuse of the core architecture level on an ICE platform. And then we move – these are positioned for two plus, okay, on a turn basis here. So we will get as many turns out of those as we can. But we’re not going to do new ones of that, if that makes sense, okay. So it’s a good place to be.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Right. Brian? Brian Johnson?

Brian Johnson

Analyst

Brian Johnson, Barclays. I’ve lots of questions for EV days, but I’ll keep those. I guess the big question is, look, the stock price is, as you know, roughly kind of where the IPO was. It seems to many of us say you’re doing everything right in terms of GMNA, the investment in Cruise. But I mean, how do you think about the stock price, a, and, b, to what extent are you open to strategic options? I’ll throw three out that I’ve heard around the room as well as talking to investors.One would be consolidation of some sort. Certainly that’s going on in Europe as we speak and up the highway from you. Second, the idea – should you just become a pure play North American truck company and everything else go somewhere else? Or thirdly Cruise sort of the next-gen businesses, OnStar, arguably creating tracking vehicles for those.

Mary Barra

Management

So, we are always exploring opportunities that are going to create long-term shareholder value. We’re not interested in doing something that’s just a short-term path, but – and we consider all lines as, I mean, I think we are in an era right now, where a lot of people are talking to a lot of people. I think people don’t understand how significant the work that we’re doing with Honda is when you think about fuel cells, when you think about AV and when you think about the fact with EV cells.For those of you who had a chance to see or look online for the Cruise Origin, the three teams worked together rather seamlessly. And in order for groups to work together, there has got to be – it’s got to be at the engineering level and we’re demonstrating that and we have been. But again, we’ll consider all those opportunities. I mean, I think to get to your core question; we do feel General Motors is a compelling investment opportunity. We feel across many of our strong franchises, you mentioned trucks, we’ve talked about OnStar, we’ve talked about mid-crossovers. We do believe China is going to be very important in the future. It’s still is a market that has tremendous growth potential. The scale that we get allows us to compete in a way from an electrification perspective across a full range of products and across the full range of – from value brands to luxury brands.So, I will tell you there is nothing that’s off the table that we don’t think is going to create long-term value. And we’re going to aggressively go at what we are working on of improving the business as we just talked about with some – especially the small and the compact crossover segments. The global family of vehicles has been very important around the globe for doing that. Steve referenced that a bit.So there is the work we’re doing on the car we feel very good about, and we feel we’re getting to the final chapters in that. But then also our conviction around EV, our conviction around AV. We think it sets up General Motors to be uniquely positioned to participate strongly in the future of mobility.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Thanks. Dan Levy, go ahead.

Dan Levy

Analyst

Thank you. First, just a question for Dhivya or Matt on China. Fully recognizing that coronavirus presents a whole new set of risks here. Can you maybe help us provide some parameters on what – you’ve said down earnings but what might be a floor? Why this might not be as bad, whether it’s because you’ve already had downtime factored in, this gives you an opportunity to destock? And also on China, if we look back historically, the $2 billion a year that you’re generating in equity income, the 9% margins, given everything that’s happened in cycle at this point, is that just not at all a relevant comp for considering the forward results in China?

Dhivya Suryadevara

Operator

Does Matt want to take that?

Rocky Gupta

Management

Yes, Matt, do you want to start with that?

Matt Tsien

Management

Yes. Let me just start and then maybe Dhivya you can add to that. Obviously, the coronavirus situation right now is very concerning. It’s a very fluid situation, with updates that we’re getting on a daily basis. As Mary had said at the beginning, our focus, first and foremost, is on the health and safety of our employees, and we certainly are very concerned about the situation on an overall basis.In terms of the impact on sales, there will be I believe a near-term impact on the overall industry. Fundamentally, dealerships have been closed for the Lunar New Year. In some regions, they’re slowly ramping back up. In many other regions, they still remain closed. So we expect that there will be an impact on volume in the near term. Generally speaking as the crisis passes there will be some pent-up demand. So there will be probably some bounce on the other side of it. But in terms of predicting what the overall impact of it would be to our equity income, I think it’s a little bit too early to sort of make that call. We obviously do the very best we can to get our operations started up when they could be started up and to manage our costs and expenses, to maximize our outcome.

Dhivya Suryadevara

Operator

I would just add that. What you’re basically witnessing is a level of equity income is almost like a downturn scenario in China. And from a level of margin standpoint as we go forward, cycling through some of the specific issues that Matt has talked about, whether it’s four cylinder engine complementing our three cylinder offering or EVs rolling out at a better margin level, that, Dan, is by what I would say catalysts for getting the equity income back to a more normalized level. But we anticipate that happening over a couple of years as opposed to a few quarters.

Rocky Gupta

Management

I think we’ve got – sorry, Matt, go ahead. Were you saying something? I think we’ve got time for one more question. John, go ahead. Did I interrupt you? Were you saying something? Cool.

John Murphy

Analyst

Thanks. When I think about the extremely high truck returns that you mentioned, I harken back to the beginning of the presentation and the Hummer truck. From a consumer perspective, you’re going to be judged on and compared with Tesla’s Cybertruck, and that means certain requirements around battery size, powertrain efficiency – they’re going to be difficult to compete with. And then internally you’re competing with very high margin – the truck segment. So how do you balance those two? Do you have to sacrifice one for the other? Or do you think that you can have your cake and eat it too?

Mary Barra

Management

Well, first of all, I think we can have our cake and eat it too, because I think understanding the truck buyer and understanding those will be initially attracted to the GMC Hummer EV, and we think it’s accretive to what Dhivya talked about and I’ll let Mark talk about the proof points.

Mark Reuss

Management

I can’t answer everything on how that truck – our competitions are going to actually come to market with that and when. So a little bit hard to tell from what – I read the same things you do, so I don’t have any inside information on that. But what I do know is that what we’re going to deliver hasn’t been really shown in its entirety yet. And I think we’re here to win. We’re not here to compete. So I don’t think there’s anything inside GM that’s going to compete with that either. It sort of will be a very different application. Time is up, Rocky, I know. But I don’t think – I think we are here to win. So that’s all I’m going to say, and I feel really good about it and you haven’t seen the interior, you haven’t seen the exterior. I think on May 20, and you’ll see that. Hopefully, you will feel as good as I feel. I think you will.

Rocky Gupta

Management

Great. Thanks. I’d like to thank all the speakers on the stage. And Mary, would you like to wrap up with any words? Thanks, Matt.

Mary Barra

Management

Sure. If I could have you for just one second, if you give me one minute to close? Thank you, all. Sorry. So I do want to thank you all for being here today. I know we’ve covered a lot and we have more to cover. I appreciate your questions. I know there is a bit more. We’ll be able to answer those questions as we go forward.But today, our goal, as I said, when we started was to leave you with the confidence in our vision and the strategy that we’re executing and that you believe that General Motors is well positioned to lead in the future of mobility and in the industry. We have strong franchises, as we’ve talked about, with our trucks, with our full-size SUVs, with our mid-sized SUVs, and I believe we have the strongest product portfolio in our history.We also are investing and have business leadership positions in growth areas like EV and AV and we’ll tell you a lot more about EV when we get to March 4th. Our strong underlying business performance is driven in part because of the difficult decisions we’ve made over the last few years and our commitment that we are going to be disciplined with our capital and really work to make sure every dollar we invest is going to earn its appropriate rate of return for you, our investors, our owners.Also, we are working hard to make sure our employees understand. When you go through this much transition and this much transformation in a short period of time, you need to make sure your employees understand how they fit in so they’re with you. We’re spending a lot of time to make sure our employees are part of this mission, and I can tell you, as I said, they get excited when we talk to them.So just to close, I hope we see you all on March 4th, and we can hopefully continue to earn your confidence in the program that we’re executing. We’re moving fast, the world is moving fast and our competitors and moving fast, but we’re going to continue to execute.So thank you, all, very much. Appreciate all your time today.