Charles K. Stevens - General Motors Co.
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Mary. We delivered solid on-plan performance in the first quarter with all core operating segments reporting profitable results. As expected, we faced some headwinds to start the year, driven by the traditionally weak Q1 seasonality, coupled with retooling downtime as we prepare to launch our all new full-size pickup trucks. In total, we generated $36.1 billion in revenue, $2.6 billion in EBIT adjusted, 7.2% margins and $1.43 in EPS diluted adjusted at the enterprise level in the first quarter. The Q1 cash burn of $3.5 billion reflects the impact of lower earnings, working capital timing and increased capital spending to support the new full-size pickup truck and GEM program launches. It's important to note that free cash flow results are in line with what we'd expected going into the quarter. North America generated solid results with $2.2 billion of EBIT adjusted and 8% margins. These are more typical results for Q1 versus the results posted in the first quarter of 2017 when we had a significant inventory build ahead of product launches. Q1 was down $1.2 billion year-over-year, primarily driven by planned downtime in our truck facilities and absence of dealer inventory build in the first quarter of 2017. Our U.S. transaction prices, which are net of incentives, continued to grow in the first quarter. Our first quarter ATPs of almost $35,000 were $600 higher than the first quarter of 2017. We expect continued strong pricing performance driven by our new crossovers and the launch of our new trucks later in the year. Importantly, we expect to sustain a full-year EBIT adjusted margin of 10%, primarily due to continued strength in the U.S. industry, benefits from a full year of new crossovers, the launch of our all new full-size trucks and continued focus on overall cost efficiency. Moving to GM International. As a reminder, GMI is now a combined reporting segment consisting of the former GMIO region and the former GM South America region. Overall, EBIT adjusted performance for this segment was flat year-over-year, with strength in China and improvement in South America as the market continues to strengthen, offset by weak volume in Korea driven by the current dynamics in that market. China continues to deliver strong results with record equity income of $600 million for the quarter. Pricing pressure remained a challenge, but was more than offset by the richer mix of crossovers, strong sales from Buick, continued growth from Baojun and Cadillac, and focused on cost efficiencies. In Korea, as Mary said, we have reached a conditional agreement with the labor union, Korean Government, and the Korean Development Bank. This is a landmark achievement. GM Korea expects to realize $400 million to $500 million in annual cost reductions through plant closure, labor and other efficiencies, which will lead to profitability in 2019. In addition, through these savings, efficiencies and strong new product programs, we expect to generate 10% to 20% return on invested capital in the medium-term. And, as part of the agreement, GM Korea will save a total of $750 million for future investment from the Korean Development Bank. A few comments on GM Financial and our Corp segment. As we continue to progress towards full captive, GM Financial posted record revenue of $3.4 billion and record earnings before tax adjusted of almost $450 million in the first quarter. Earning assets grew $13.2 billion to $88.1 billion, supporting expected future earnings growth. For the full year, we expect to see a meaningful improvement in GM Financial earnings versus 2017. In the Corporate segment, costs were $300 million for Q1, reflecting lighter spending from a quarterly cadence perspective, driven by timing and expenses. We continue to expect the Corp segment quarterly cost to be about $500 million for 2018, including $1.1 billion in transportation as a service spending for the year. Turning to cash flow and capital allocation. As I mentioned earlier, our cash burn in Q1 was as expected $3.5 billion, down versus 2017 and down versus a typically weak Q1 run rate of about $1.5 billion. This was driven by factors specific to Q1, downtime for truck changeover, elevated capital spending and working capital timing. We are on track with our 2018 free cash flow expectation of approximately $5 billion, which we will generate through strong EBIT performance for the balance of the year, working capital rewind, our annual China dividend payment and reduced capital spending on a run rate basis. During the quarter, we returned $600 million to our shareholders through $500 million in dividends and $100 million in stock repurchases through our participation in the VEBA Trust sale. Our pace of buybacks for 2018 will be dependent on our free cash flow generation and any additional calls on cash throughout the year, such as the Korea restructuring payments. We would expect share buybacks to be weighted to the second half of the year. With regard to our total company outlook for the full year, as I mentioned, Q1 was in line with our expectations and we are on track to deliver on the guidance we outlined at the beginning of the year. We expect core EBIT-adjusted and core automotive-adjusted free cash flow to be generally in line with the core business performance in 2017. With regard to commodities, we anticipate a continued increase in raw material prices, which we expect to largely mitigate through cost performance, similar to what we did in the first quarter. We expect the incremental impact from tariffs will be minimal, given that most of our steel and aluminum is domestically sourced and we have long-term supply contracts in place. Reiterating the cadence of earnings for the rest of the year, we continue to expect Q2 and Q3 to be strong and Q4 to be weaker on a relative basis. The relative weakness in Q4 is driven by additional downtime in preparation for the new truck launch. As mentioned, we expect significant year-over-year profit growth at GM Financial and at least $2 billion of equity income in China, as well as a meaningful improvement in our South American markets in GMI. To sum it up, the first quarter performance came in as expected with all core operating segments reporting profitable results. The full-size truck launch is on plan and will support earnings growth later in the year and in 2019. And while the environment is more challenging than just a few months ago, the entire team is focused on meeting our commitments in 2018, just as we have done for the past four years. That concludes our opening comments. We'll now move to the question-and-answer portion of the call.