Charles K. Stevens - General Motors Co.
Analyst · Citi
Thanks, Mary. Our third quarter results from continuing operations demonstrate the resilience of our core business and continued disciplined execution of our plan. All of our operating segments were profitable this quarter for the first time since Q4 2014. This did not happen by chance. Our strategic initiatives, including the closing of the Opel-Vauxhall deal, in addition to our cost efficiency measures and product launch cadence are paying off. We remain solidly profitable and generated 8.3% margins in North America even with the planned downtime for our next-generation full-size trucks, and decisive actions to reduce production of passenger cars to right-size our inventory. South America had its first profitable quarter in three years. China continues to generate consistent equity income and GM Financial had a record third quarter. We generated net revenue of $33.6 billion, EBIT adjusted of $2.5 billion and an EBIT adjusted margin of 7.5% in the third quarter, contributing to a strong first nine months of the year. We've generated year-to-date net revenue of $107.9 billion, EBIT adjusted of $9.8 billion and an EBIT adjusted margin of 9%. During the quarter, we consumed $1 billion in cash as we expected with cash flow primarily impacted by our production downtime. As production levels normalize, we anticipate working capital to meaningfully contribute to fourth quarter adjusted automotive free cash flow. And importantly, we still plan to return approximately $7 billion in capital to shareholders this year. Moving to the segment details. North America has delivered year-to-date revenue of $82.6 billion, EBIT adjusted of $9 billion and a 10.9% EBIT adjusted margin, consistent with 2016 margin levels on 6% lower revenue. For the third quarter, North America revenue was $24.8 billion. EBIT-adjusted was $2.1 billion with an 8.3% margin despite a $2.1 billion headwind from a largely planned 26% reduction in wholesale volume. The performance was driven by improved mix of about $600 million as we reduced production of cars which more than offset the mix headwind from truck retooling. Solid improvements in cost including warranty of about $300 million also contributed to the performance. The actions we've taken will allow us to end the year with dealer inventory down compared to the end of 2016. And our focus on cost continues. During the third quarter, we have generated more than $5 billion in cost efficiency since 2014 and plan to achieve our more aggressive goal of $6.5 billion by the end of 2018, which more than offsets incremental investment in engineering, technology and D&A. Based on our disciplined cost initiatives and the strength of new crossovers, we continue to project strong 10-plus percent margins in North America for the full year 2017. Moving on to China. China generated another $500 million of equity income in the third quarter for a total of $1.5 billion of equity income year-to-date, both flat year-over-year. Pricing remains challenging with deterioration of at least 5% calendar year-to-date. Our focus on cost efficiency and the strength of our recent launches and growth in Cadillac have allowed us to mitigate the pricing headwinds as evidenced by another quarter of strong equity income, and we are forecasting that 2017 will be another year of strong overall equity income. Turning to South America. Year-to-date revenue was $6.8 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion or 36% year-over-year and the EBIT-adjusted loss was less than $100 million, a $200-million improvement from a year ago as the actions we've taken over the past several years are yielding benefits in a slightly improved macro climate. Our progress in South America paid off in the third quarter as the region generated $15 million of EBIT adjusted of $2.6 billion of revenue, our first profit in three years. Another segment that had strong third quarter performance is GM Financial. GM Financial generated quarterly revenue of $3.2 billion, up 30% from $2.4 billion in the third quarter of 2016, resulting in third quarter record earnings before taxes of about $300 million, up more than 60% year-over-year. Year-to-date through the third quarter, GMF generated almost $900 million of earnings before taxes, up about $300 million or almost 50% versus the three quarters of 2016 driven by a 38% increase in revenue to about $9 billion. We do see some headwinds in the fourth quarter for GM Financial driven primarily by residual value and used car pricing. One bit of housekeeping. Beginning in the three months ended December 31, 2017, we intend to change our segment reporting because of changes to our organizational structure. As a result, our South America and international operations will be reported as one combined international segment called GM International. Our North America and GM Financial segments will not be impacted. To summarize, overall this was another solid quarter even with significantly lower volumes. Our solid margins illustrate the benefits of the strategic actions we've taken resulting in a simpler, most focused business with a leaner cost structure. With the disciplined production actions we are taking, we project to be well-positioned going into 2018 with lower dealer inventory levels than year-end 2016, and that inventory will be better balanced to meet customer demands. As we think about our full year guidance, the operating environment is more challenging than we expected at the beginning of the year. We continue to take actions to adjust production in response to lower passenger car demand in North America. Raw material costs are on the rise, and we recently resolved the labor situation in Canada that resulted in unexpected down time. Despite these headwinds, we project strong financial results for the year including revenue, EBIT adjusted and EBIT-adjusted margins generally in line with the record results we posted in 2016 and adjusted automotive free cash flow of approximately $6 billion. We also continue to forecast earnings per share in the middle of the range of $6 to $6.50, ROIC adjusted of greater than 25%, North American margins of 10-plus percent, China equity income of about $2 billion, and we continue to project to return about $7 billion to shareholders as previously committed. This concludes our opening comments. We'll now move to the question-and-answer portion of the call.