Charles K. Stevens - General Motors Co.
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thanks, Mary. I just want to take a few minutes to provide some perspective on the quarter and the first half. In addition to the outstanding second quarter that we just posted, we also had a very strong first half for the company. EBIT-adjusted results for the first half grew to $6.6 billion, up $1.6 billion on a year-over-year basis. Our EBIT-adjusted margin was 8.3% in the first half, up 160 basis points year-over-year. The positive results were broad based, with all but one of our automotive regions posting year-over-year profit improvement during the first half of the year. To demonstrate the strength of our business over time, we have now delivered EBIT-adjusted of $12.5 billion and nearly 8% margins over the last four quarters. Our strong first half results were led by record results in North America, sustained strong performance in China, and a return to profitability in Europe. In North America, EBIT-adjusted grew to $5.9 billion for the first half, up $1 billion year-over-year. North American EBIT-adjusted margins continue to be strong at 10.5%, up 80 basis points year-over-year, and in line with our target of sustaining strong margins of 10% plus for the 2016 calendar year. As an additional proof point that demonstrates the sustainability and strength of our business, North America has achieved 10% plus EBIT-adjusted margins for four of the last five quarters, and over the last four quarters has delivered $12 billion in EBIT-adjusted with 10.7% margins. And fundamentally supporting our business is the U.S. light vehicle industry that is tracking in the low-to-mid 17 million SAAR range year-to-date, up 1.2% compared to the same period last year. We continue to believe the industry will remain strong. As for the rest of the world, China continues to deliver solid results, with equity income of $1 billion for the first half, about equal to a year ago, and net income margins were 9.6%. However, as you all know, macroeconomic conditions in South America and many parts of our international operations continue to be challenging. The team continues to work to offset these pressures, and we will continue to take the necessary steps to set up these regions for future success. A proof point is South America. In the first half of 2016, we narrowed losses by $170 million, despite a much more challenging economic environment fundamentally in Brazil. Moving on to Europe. The region achieved its second straight quarter of break-even or better results. In fact, not only was the second quarter profitable, but the region recorded EBIT adjusted of $131 million for the first half, up over $400 million on a year-over-year basis. Of course, one of the largest uncertainties we have in Europe is the impact of the referendum in the UK. And let me provide some commentary on Brexit. Clearly, things are still fluid, and there are a lot of unknowns. It is important that negotiations on the UK's future relationship with the EU are concluded in a timely manner, and all businesses will certainly benefit from free movement of goods and people, and continued free movement of goods and people. Certainly we've made substantial progress towards our target to break even by taking advantage of a recovering industry, cost optimization, and recent launches like the Astra and Corsa. Prior to the result of the referendum, we were on track to break even for the year, as evidenced by our positive first-half performance. The result of the vote has adversely impacted the British pound, and the uncertainty has put a strain on the UK automotive industry. If current post-referendum market conditions are sustained throughout the remainder of 2016, we believe it could have an impact of up to $400 million to the second half of 2016. However, it's important to note that the team remains focused on making progress on our turn-around plan in Europe. Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Adjusted automotive free cash flow was $3.2 billion for the second quarter and $1.7 billion for the first half, both about equal to a year ago. Important to note that capital spending was $1.1 billion higher in the first half of this year versus 2015 as we make investments in our portfolio in line with our previously communicated plan. Adjusted automotive free cash flow is expected to more than double in the second half of the year, and we remain very much on track to generate approximately $6 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow for the year. We also remain focused on investing in the business and increasing shareholder value for the long term. As Mary discussed earlier, our strategic investments in Lyft and Cruise Automation help us to build the foundation to lead and define the future of personal mobility for our customers. We're pleased to report that we closed on the acquisition of Cruise Automation during the second quarter. The deal consideration at closing was approximately $600 million, with $300 million paid in cash during the quarter and the remaining $300 million paid through the issuance of new common stock. Additionally, we entered into other agreements associated with retention of key employees and performance-based awards contingent on continued employment and/or reaching certain milestones from a technology and a commercialization perspective. Despite nearly $800 million in cash outflows associated with our investments in Lyft and Cruise in the first half, as well as higher CapEx, our automotive cash balance increased $1.6 billion to $20.1 billion, bringing our balance back in line with our target. Turning to our capital allocation framework, we continue to focus on driving shareholder value in the short and long term. We returned $1.5 billion to shareholders during the first half, including $1.2 billion in dividends and $300 million in share repurchases. Please note, because of the seasonally challenging cash flow in the first quarter and our desire to get back up to our target cash level of $20 billion by the end of the second quarter, we expected that our stock buyback program would be heavily weighted to the second half of the year. Because we are in a seasonal cash flow business, I would focus less on smaller levels of stock buybacks in a quarter and more on the overall plan. We will deliver on our commitment to buy back $5 billion of stock by the end of 2016. In fact, we intend to complete the $5 billion stock buyback commitment within or ahead of the original timeline. Finally, with regard to our outlook for the remainder of 2016, as Mary indicated earlier, given our very strong first half performance and our current outlook for the second half of the year, we now expect 2016 full year diluted earnings per share adjusted to be in the range of $5.50 to $6.00 per diluted adjusted share. We expect the second half of the year to be strong but slightly below H1 results, primarily due to uncertainties associated with Brexit. As we've shown, we've accomplished a lot already this year, and we are in great position for improved full-year profit and margin growth versus 2015, which would be another record year for the company. That concludes our opening comments. We'll now move to the question-and-answer portion of the call.