James Flaws
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. This morning we released our results for the third quarter, which can be found on our Investor Relations website. We have posted accompanying slides online as well. Here are the key messages you will hear today. First, our third quarter segment results were in line or better than revised guidance we provided on September 14. Telecom, Environmental and Specialty Materials sales all exceeded our expectations for the quarter. Telecom sales were up 5% sequentially, driven by strong fiber-to-the-home and private network demand. Environmental sales were up 13% sequentially, driven by stronger auto and diesel demand. And Specialty Material sales were up 26% driven by Gorilla Glass and Advanced Optics. Second, our Q3 results did benefit from a stronger yen-to-US dollar exchange rate in the quarter. Our free cash flow was $208 million in quarter three. For the first three quarters, our free cash flow now totals $1.2 billion. Glass volume in total for our wholly-owned business and SCP declined 8% sequentially, which was in line with the overall glass market. Worldwide retail sales of LCD televisions, with the exception of the United States, continue to be strong in the third quarter. Inventory levels at the panel makers and for the supply-chain in total have improved. For the entire supply chain, we believe there are about 17 weeks of inventory exiting the third quarter, down from 18.5 weeks entering the quarter. We saw a modest increase in utilization rates at the Taiwanese panel makers in October, which in turn resulted in a modest increase in demand for our glass. We believe this was in response to improved panel inventories and expectations for strong holiday retail demand. We are forecasting panel maker utilization rates to remain modestly higher the remainder of Q4 in comparison to the low point last quarter, which was in September. However, there is the possibility rates could be lower on average for Q4 versus Q3. As a result, we expect worldwide glass market volume could be flat to down slightly in the fourth quarter. We expect fourth quarter volume at both our wholly-owned business and SCP to be in line with the overall glass market. Worldwide glass demand remains on pace to hit 3.1 billion square feet this year. Our glass price declines may be more pronounced in the fourth quarter versus prior quarters. And lastly as a reminder, the fourth quarter is typically a weaker seasonal quarter for several of our businesses including Telecom. Now let me go to the details. Our third quarter sales were $1.6 billion, a 6% decrease from the second quarter and an 8% increase from a year ago. Our Q3 sales benefited from changes in exchange rates by about $45 million versus Q2. Moving down the income statement. Gross margin was 45% in Q3 compared to 48% in Q2. The decline was a result of lower volumes in our Display segment, which offset higher margin performance in Telecom, Environmental and Specialty Material segments. Gross margins included $20 million in Gorilla-related startup costs at Shizuoka. Please note, we did not record this as a special item. And as a reminder, our Q2 results also included $25 million in startup costs at Shizuoka. Operating expenses on a dollar basis were basically flat quarter-to-quarter. Other income declined from $65 million in Q2 to $2 million in Q3. The decline was primarily due to a $30 million loss on a retirement of debt. During the quarter, we issued long-dated bonds at very attractive rates, and we repurchased bonds with higher coupon debt. The loss was incurred on the tender of that debt and was treated as a special item in Q3. Our results were also negatively impacted by about $20 million in pretax foreign exchange loss in the quarter. As a reminder, we hedge monetary assets and liabilities that are denominated nonfunctional currencies. Gains and losses from these activities show up in our P&L. Exchange rates were very volatile in Q3, and our hedges can not always be perfectly matched to the movement in the underlying exposure. In any quarter, we can experience incremental gains or losses due to foreign currency movements. This quarter, those losses totaled $10 million. In addition, we incurred about $10 million of incremental onetime losses that are attributed to two large intercompany transactions related to our decision to repatriate $1 billion from our non-US locations in November. The loss stems primarily from market rate movements between when the dividends were declared to when we can get the underlying notion amounts completely hedged. While we understand placing a perfect hedge on these types of transactions is difficult, it couldn't have been executed more effectively. We do not anticipate this to repeat going forward. Our equity earnings were $504 million in the third quarter, an increase of 6% over the second quarter. Our tax rate was 3% in Q3. Net income excluding special items was $808 million in Q3 compared to $916 million in Q2. Net income benefited by about a penny from the change in exchange rates, including the impact in balance sheet and unhedged repatriation. Our share count for the third quarter is 1.58 billion shares and consistent with the second quarter. Now I'd like to turn to the segment results for the third quarter, and I'll start with Display. Third quarter sales were $645 million, 23% lower than Q2. Volume at our wholly-owned business was down about 25%, and glass pricing was down in line with previous quarters. Sales benefit from this change in the yen to U.S. dollar exchange rate, which averaged 92 in quarter two and 86 in quarter three. Display gross margins declined in the third quarter due to lower volumes. Equity earnings from SCP's LCD Glass business were $386 million in the third quarter, increase of 9% from the second quarter. Volume was up about 5% and pricing was down in line with previous quarters. SCP results also benefit from the change in the yen to U.S. dollar exchange rate. For your modeling purposes, SCP's third quarter LCD sales were $1.2 billion, an increase of 9% over the second quarter. As a reminder, this represents SCP's LCD sales only. Our public filings will report SCP's total sales, which include the CRT glass and other products. Now I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the current supply chain starting with retail. Retail demand in Q3 was good across all major products: notebooks, monitors and televisions. I'll start with TV retail data. Worldwide LCD television unit sales at retail were up 33% in July and 25% in August. We don't have complete data to provide worldwide growth figure for September. In China, LCD TV unit sales were up 23% in July, 8% in August and September was up 23%. A lower year-over-year growth rate in August was likely due to consumers waiting for September holiday promotions. We believe the September growth rate was driven by strong holiday sales. These holidays fell between September 20 and October 10. Our data indicates about 5.5 million LCD televisions were sold during the Mid-autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which was in line with our expectations. In Europe, LCD TV unit growth was strong post the World Cup, up 13% in July and 14% in August. We do not have final data for September, but preliminary estimates indicate it was around 10% growth. Japan continued to post significant year-over-year growth rates. July was up 53%, August 69% and September was up 80%. Again for a market that was first to adopt the LCD televisions and where more than 90% of all televisions sold each year are LCDs, these are very impressive growth rates. we believe the echo point program and a faster replacement rate is driving much of this growth. Plan on sharing some of the data from our consumer study on this topic at our investor meeting in February. In the United States, sales were down 3% in July, down 11% in August and down 8% in September. We believe the lack of retail promotions during these months was a contributing factor. LCD televisions are still a very price-elastic product. One needs to look no further in China for proof consumer there waited for the holiday sales promotion to make their purchases. Retailers here in the United States are planning significant holiday promotions later this quarter, so we expect to see some year-over-year unit growth in November and December. In developing regions, converging Asia sales were up 79% July and 59% in August. South America sales were up 82% in July and 80% in August. We do not have September data yet for either. In summary, we have no change to our forecast of approximately 185 million LCD TVs shipped this year, which would be an increase of 28% over last year. Moving to monitors. Sales continue to be on track with our forecast, although back-to-school demand was weaker than expected. Our data is based on shipments of the top nine monitor brands, which make up 70% of the worldwide monitor market. Year-to-date sales are up 5%. In the Notebook segment, which includes traditional notebooks, net books, slates and tablets, our data is based on top five ODMs, which make up about 75% of the worldwide notebook market. Year-to-date shipments were up 29%, slightly higher than our forecast. I'd like to discuss the supply-chain inventory levels, starting with the panel makers. Utilization rates at the Taiwanese and Japanese panel makers hit a low point for the year during the month of September. In July, the first half of August, utilization rates were above 80%. In September, most of these large size pads were running less than 50%. This was not true for the green panel makers who ran at 90% or higher throughout Q3. Our production levels were down. Panel shipments were up slightly, led by shipments of LCD television panels. This led to panel inventories falling to what we consider to be a healthier level at the end of Q3. The average inventory levels at the Taiwanese panel makers reached six weeks in July and August but ended the quarter between four and five weeks. As a reminder, this is the average of all the Taiwanese panel makers. Some had more inventory and some had less. Looking at the entire display supply chain. There are approximately 18.5 weeks of inventory heading into the third quarter. We now believe that we're about 17 weeks of inventory at the end of the quarter. I'll have some more of our fourth quarter expectations for panel maker utilization rates and supply chain inventory levels in our outlook section. Now moving to the Environmental segment. Sales in the third quarter were $208 million, an increase of 13% sequential, which is much higher than our expectations. We continue to see very strong demand for light-duty filters, driven primarily by the Euro 5 regulations. The good news is that we had more capacity to meet this demand this quarter. As a reminder, Euro 5 was a filter forcing regulation for all the model platforms this year. As more new models come to the market, this generated additional demand for our light-duty filters. Our total diesel sales were up $14 million this quarter. Looking ahead to 2011, all models, new and existing, will be required to have a filter. For the gasoline auto market, worldwide demand remains robust. Worldwide auto production this year is estimated to be about $70 million, which equates to a 19% growth rate versus last year. We saw continued strong demand in Q3 to support this level of production. Improved manufacturing in auto businesses in the quarter allowed us to reduce the amount of products shipped via air resulting in higher gross margins. In the Telecommunications segment, third quarter sales were $464 million, up 5% from Q2 and higher than our expectations. Net income in the Telecom segment was $41 million in Q3, up from $30 million in Q2. We're very pleased with the segments results compared to last year. And while sales were up 3%, net income almost doubled. This is a testament to the segment's strong manufacturing performance and reduced cost structure. Sales increased across most products and markets. Demand increased for fiber-to-the-home products in North America and Enterprise products globally during the quarter. This more than offset the expected decline in fiber sales in China. Regarding a higher Enterprise sales, we're seeing both a stronger overall market and increased demand for our solutions. Market growth is being driven by increased data traffic from smart devices, growth in cloud computing and companies investing in IT to increase productivity. We have also seen significant customer interest in our Pretium EDGE solutions for the data center market. The demand is so great that conversion from our standard offering to Pretium EDGE is happening much faster than we planned. For Elite Telecom, I'd like to add we're very encouraged by the results from the national election in Australia in September, where the Labor Party who supports the deployment of a national broadband network won the election. If the project goes forward, it could be a significant opportunity for Corning. The network will reach 10 million homes, connecting 90% of the population with 100 megabits per second service. Sales in our Specialty Materials segment were $159 million in Q3, an increase of $33 million or 26% versus Q2. Increase was primarily due to strong demand for Gorilla Glass and advanced optics. As you're looking at the profitability of Specialty Materials segment on this slide, I want to remind you that we are recording the startup expense for TV cover glass manufacturing in this segment. Q3 we incurred another $20 million in startup and other construction-related charges at Shizuoka. In Q2, the startup costs were $25 million. I'm very pleased to report that we are already producing Gorilla Glass for television covers on the converted equipment. Gorilla Glass sales are currently on a pace to be about $250 million in sales this year. Have some updated figures to review this morning. Gorilla Glass is now used by 23 major brands around the world as a cover material for handheld and laptop applications. Our glass has been designed in more than 240 different models, more than 140 of these products are in the market today. At least another 90 will be in retail in the next six months. In terms of units, there are now more than 200 million with Gorilla Glass in use worldwide. Think about that, 200 million units, there's a good chance you, hopefully, own at least own one product that has Gorilla Glass. Lastly, we are also receiving some very interesting requests for Gorilla outside of consumer electronics. Requests are coming from auto, appliance and architectural industries and could provide even further revenue opportunities for us. Needless to say, we remain very excited about the future for Gorilla Glass. In Life Sciences segment, the sales in the third quarter were $125 million and consistent with the second quarter. Gross margin and net income were slightly lower, reflecting integration costs from the asked Axygen acquisition, as well as project costs associated with the new distribution center in China, which we announced in July. Turning to Dow Corning. Third quarter sales were $1.5 billion and relatively consistent with the record second quarter. Silicone demand continue to be very strong, especially in developing regions of the world. Sales at Hemlock Semiconductor were consistent quarter-to-quarter. Dow Corning did true up their effective tax rate in the quarter moving 35% to 40%. As a result, equity earnings declined 13% from $111 million in Q2 to $97 million in Q3. Now shifting to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with $5 billion in cash and short-term investments, up from $4.2 billion last quarter. Of our total cash and short-term investments, slightly more than 50% is located internationally. During the quarter, we issued $700 million of long-dated bonds at very attractive volume rates and repurchased $226 million of the higher coupon debt. Free cash flow was $208 million. Our free cash flow was about $1.2 billion for the first three quarters of the year. Free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure, and the GAAP reconciliation is on our website. Biggest outflow of cash during the quarter was for capital expenditures. CapEx was $225 million in the third quarter and for the first nine months of the year, it is now $534 million. Based on this levels of spending, our expectations for Q4: it's unlikely our CapEx will hit our previous $1.2 billion guidance from a few months ago. Our estimate for 2010 is now about $1 billion. We have no change to our 2011 estimate of more than $2 billion. I'd like to discuss two housekeeping items that will take place this quarter relative to our balance sheet. First, as I've mentioned in various investor conferences, we plan to repatriate slightly more than $1 billion of our non-US cash in quarter four. In connection with this intercompany rebalancing transaction, we will borrow against our revolving credit facility in November and then repay the loan in early December. SEC rules require us to issue an 8-K given that we're borrowing, although for only a very short period under our credit facility. I don't want any one to be surprised or concerned when we they see this filing. Second, we also plan to call a 100 million bond before year-end. Our balance sheet is in great shape, and we are well-positioned to support our aspirations to grow to be a $10 billion company in the next several years. Moving further down the balance sheet. Inventories increased from $607 million at the end of Q2 to about $712 million at the end of Q3. About half this increase relates to Display inventory, but there was also the impact of foreign exchange. As we've mentioned previously, inventory levels in Display have been very low for the past year. While excess inventory can be problematic, there is a certain level of inventory desired to operate this business at maximum efficiency. At an optimum level, inventory could help us minimize manufacturing costs and cover most unexpected disruptions. So we exited the third quarter close to the minimum level of Glass inventory we'd like to have. Given our expectations for Q4, which I'll cover in a moment, we will likely build some more Glass inventory this quarter. This is probably a good time also to discuss our R&D portfolio. We have two updates. First, we have decided to discontinue our synthetic green laser program. This was a difficult decision for us to make, but one that we felt was necessary. We believe the market opportunity for synthetic green lasers is closing. There has been accelerated advancement on what is known as native green lasers over the past year. While synthetic green lasers may be a viable industry choice over the short term, we believe its lifespan will be limited by native green. As a result, we felt it was not prudent for us to put more R&D dollars into our synthetic green laser program. There will be a charge equal to about $$0.01 of EPS in the fourth quarter, half of which will impact R&D and the other half gross margin. I have some good news to report also. About a month ago, Corning and Earlacon [ph] the world leading manufacturer of end-to-end and film TV solutions, announced a world record 11.9% conversion efficiency in the laboratory using Corning's glass on a research size silicon tan himself. We're very pleased to about this milestone. We continue to feel very good about our chances of making portable play Gas a viable new business for Corning. Now under our outlook. We expect our sales and EPS to be lower in Q4 compared Q3, due primarily to normal seasonality in Telecom and lower Glass pricing and display. We start with Display. We saw a modest increase in utilization rates at the Taiwanese panel makers in October. We believe this is in response to improving panel inventory levels and expectations for a stronger holiday retail demand. Our Glass demand forecast is based on the assumption panel maker utilization rates remain modestly higher for the remainder of Q4, in comparison to the low point last quarter, which was September. While we're expecting utilization rates to rebound in Q4, we are unsure at this time whether it will reach the level they were prior to the inventory correction. Admittedly, the fourth quarter is usually the most difficult for us to forecast given the specific market dynamics that take place this time of the year. Regarding the overall glass market, we expect market volume to be flat to down slightly quarter-to-quarter. For Corning, we expect our combined glass volume for our wholly-owned business and SCP to be in line with the overall market. We plan to continue to run all our Glass operations at full capacity to build some additional inventory. Regarding retail, we expect demand to remain strong in the fourth quarter, driven by heavy holiday promotions on LCD televisions, especially in the United States. We are modeling a significant amount of inventory to be pulled out at the supply chain during the quarter from retail to consumers. As a result, we anticipate supply chain inventory could fall to 16 weeks to 16.5 weeks exiting the year. Glass price declines at our wholly-owned business and SCP are expected to be in the mid-single digits in the fourth quarter. This is more than previous quarters and reflects the current imbalance of Glass supply and demand, which is causing pricing pressure from our customers. The fact that panel prices on certain panels have approached cash costs of some panel makers is also creating additional pressure. At Telecom segment, we expect fourth quarter sales to be about down about 10% comparison to the very strong third quarter. This decline is consistent with the seasonal decline we had seen in previous years. We expect sales in the Environmental segment to be consistent quarter-to-quarter. Expect light duty diesel demands to offset normal seasonal declines in auto. In Life Sciences, we expect sales to be up 5% sequentially as normal seasonal declines will be offset by full quarter sales from the newly acquired Plaslab. Specialty Material sales are expected to grow 10% to 20% sequentially, driven by Gorilla Glass. we anticipate Gorilla Glass sales to exit the year on a run rate of about $450 million, driven entirely by handhelds and IT products. At Dow Corning, we expect quarter four equity earnings to be down about 5% due primarily to the fixed cost drive from our new China facility. Moving to the income statement. We expect our Q4 corporate gross margin percentage will be lower than Q3, driven by the higher price declines in Display and the lower Telecom volumes. SG&A and R&D as a percentage of sales will be higher due to lower sales. SG&A will be around 17% and R&D around 10%. Investors should note that movements in the yen to U.S. dollar exchange rate influence our results. For your modeling purposes, for every one point move in they end, our sales and net income move about $10 million. The net income impact includes SCP, where a stronger yen could also improve their results. And finally regarding our Q4 tax rate, we expect it to be between 2% and 3%. Ken?