Bart Filius
Analyst · Bank of America. Please ask your question
Thank you, Paul, and good morning everyone in the US. Good afternoon in Europe. Happy to be with you for the annual results and happy to also give you some color to the numbers that we've completed the year with. So let me start off with something that we're extremely proud of at Galapagos, which is the European performance of our commercial teams with Jyseleca. As you can see here, we are landing now the year at €88 million in terms of sales in Jyseleca in Europe. And as you remember, we've been able to increase our guidance twice during the year. And also this number is at the top end of that of that guidance range. And that within a year where there was the Article 20 review of the entire class, we are extremely proud with this achievement. We're treating now 18,000 patients across Europe and that number is increasing. Two noteworthy events in addition. First of all, we got the feedback from the EMA or the CHMP opinion on the MANTA and MANTA-RAy studies and how we can adjust the label for that and that opinion was positive, and we'll be able to in the course of this year update the label accordingly. So we're very pleased with that. That point is off the table for the European markets. And secondly, we've also seen the outcome of the Article 20 review process and it has confirmed that Jyseleca remains available for both biologic refractory and biologic naïve patients. And that any limitations are indicated for high-risk patients. So we're also pleased with that outcome for the entire class, because we believe the Class is a very strong, Class IV-patients with RA and UC. And I'll give a bit further detail on guidance in a few slides in a few seconds. But indeed next year, this year I should say in 2023, we anticipate sales to go up, again, between €140 million and €160 million as a range is what we're forecasting. Then, a couple of words on the next slide on the actual financial results and let me start off as usual with the cash position. As you know, we focus on cash burn and our guidance was between €480 million and €520 million. We've landed at €514 million, which you can see here in dark green. We always exclude from the cash burn -- cash out from acquisitions. The €150 million here reflects the acquisitions of CellPoint and AboundBio earlier this year. And we also exclude currency effects from cash burn, which was a €50 million positive. Compared to the Q3 results obviously, that number is a bit lower. We've seen the dollar fluctuate quite a bit during the year, very positively in the first nine months, a little bit in the other direction in the last three months of the year. But overall still a positive €51 million contribution to our cash balance from the dollar-euro exchange rates. So, we're landing the year at €4.1 billion of cash on our balance sheet, which as a reminder, reflects a good €62 a share. Then, on the next slide, a couple of words on the P&L. We focus always on product sales and cash burn, because we believe that these are the strong metrics to focus on to evaluate Galapagos. A lot of other things are going on in the P&L. Some of these are accounting. For those of you that are following the story longer, you see a couple of these things coming back every quarter. We always assess the development costs for filgotinib until the end of the development period, and based on that, we recognize the income that we received from Gilead over the last couple of years. And we recognize that, let's say, over that period and that has generated €174 million of revenues in the year 2022. And also, the remainder of the Gilead transaction from 2019 is a recognition that we see every year coming back in our numbers €230 million on a straight-line basis. And as a reminder, there is still in our balance sheet about €2 billion of revenues still to be recognized over the next couple of years €1.5 billion on the platform and €0.5 billion on JYSELECA. Then the product sales we discussed. On top of that we have also royalties coming from the Japan business and a couple of sales milestones from our partnership with SOBI. On the operating cost side, we've seen an increase in operating costs. There's a couple of things happening under the hood if you like. As part of the discontinuation of some of the programs in fibrosis and kidney, we've also taken some impairments in the last quarter. Total impairment charge for the year is about €55 million. Some of this was already in previous quarters, but that's -- what I would call a cleanup of the intangibles on our balance sheet from some of the discontinued programs. What also is happening here is that we've put some restructuring costs into our P&L for 2022. As Paul was alluding to before, we've downsized our organization quite meaningfully. And as a result, we've taken a charge in the 2022 P&L for this. And finally another important one and that's been already noted several times during the previous quarters is that this year 2022 we've had for the first time no cost share with Gilead on the commercial and medical affairs expenses. So that is no longer part of income or a reduction of operating costs. As a result, you see sales and marketing costs going up a bit from year 2021 to 2022. Net loss then comes at €200 million negative, which includes the FX income as I pointed out before. Then guidance for the next year. I already spoke about sales. So between €140 million and €160 million we believe is feasible. That does reflect I think the current growth trends year-over-year that we've seen in 2022 and also now coming back in 2023. It also does include further launches in some countries in Europe. We know that UC has been launched in quite a few countries, but there are still a couple to go or a couple are also very early days in the launch. So we anticipate also some further UC launches throughout Europe to help us achieve that number. And then on the cash burn guidance obviously this has been a big focus for us to make sure that we spend our cash wisely. When we did the R&D Day I indicated that we would be reducing our cash burn compared to 2022. And actually I'm happy to report that we're actually going to be able to reduce it by more than €100 million to land at if I take the midpoint €400 million of cash out for the year. And that's a result of the program discontinuations that we highlighted also the JYSELECA performance obviously the organizational restructuring. We have a bit more friendly interest rate environment. And on the other hand we're also investing in the other direction in the oncology buildup. Net-net we should be able to significantly reduce our cash burn in 2023 compared to 2022. Then a few words on the overall business case for JYSELECA. Obviously, we were very disappointed with the readout of the DIVERSITY trial, and therefore we have had to take out Crohn's from our peak sales estimates. And we now believe that we're going to be landing around €400 million at peak. And that includes RA and UC, which are already in the markets but also actually spondyloarthritis, which we plan to launch in a couple of years' time. So €400 million is the net-net outcome of taking out Crohn's adding AxSpA, but also taking into account any impacts from the Article 20 outcomes of the review that was done last year. We still believe that the contribution margin can stay at 50% or even a bit better than that. So net-net, if you look at the peak year, previously we were estimating €500 million at 50%. We're now guiding for €400 million at 50%. So the net-net impacts of losing Crohn's in Europe from our business case, is about €50 million at peak. Full commercial structure is in place, breakeven product contribution, we're shifting it with one year backwards. It's quite a small adjustment. But in full transparency, we're just not going to be there at breakeven in 2024. We're losing a milestone on Crohn's in 2024 which was foreseen. And we're also paying a little bit higher royalties to our partner Gilead as a result of the loss of diversity. So net-net, we're going to be slightly negative in 2024 still, but we should be positive in 2025 and that gives us then an additional 10 years of patent exclusivity to benefit from the proceeds of Jyseleca to our company. Then I'll conclude with an outlook on the clinical side for 2023, before we give it over to Sofie for Q&A. So, key top line results that we're anticipating are the results in NHL and CLL with our two CD19 programs at the point of care. We've had some initial results there already. We will be excited to look at the full top line results later this year. In terms of regulatory process also in the oncology space, we plan to have a submission for IND for the CD19 program, but also clinical trial approval for the BCMA program. And trial initiations quite a few. The AxSpA first patient first visit is anticipated, as well as for 3667 our TYK2 inhibitor in dermatomyositis and lupus. And we're also excited to start a program with our CD19 in lupus and we'll initiate that trial also in the course of this year. We're initiating expansion cohorts in NHL and CLL. And then finally the BCMA program will also get off the ground in the course of 2023, so a lot going on the clinical front. And I'm sure that we're going to have a little bit of discussion of that in the Q&A as well. We're still very much looking out for additional business development deals, both for clinical programs and preclinical programs. And we believe that that's going to be an important part of the transformation journey that Galapagos is on currently. With that, I conclude the opening remarks and just to go to Sofie and the operator for the Q&A. Thank you very much.