Karl Staubo
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, operator, and good morning from our headquarters in Bermuda. Welcome to Golar's Q1 2026 Earnings Results Presentation. My name is Karl Fredrik Staubo, I'm the CEO of Golar and I'm accompanied today by our CFO, Eduardo Maranhao. Before we get into the presentation, please note the forward-looking statements on Slide 2. We start on Slide 3 and an overview of Golar today. Q1 was a record quarter for LNG production for Golar. Hilli continued its 100% economic uptime and Gimi produced 19% above the committed contractual capacity. The Mark II FLNG remains on budget and scheduled for delivery by year-end '27. Geopolitical risks during the quarter highlights the vulnerability of global energy markets and the need for energy diversification and security. This has driven strong development of our commercial pipeline for incremental FLNG units, and we're now expecting to order our fourth FLNG unit within this year. As you can see on the bottom part of the slide, this is our 3 growth designs available for the next units. During the quarter, we also announced that we have launched a strategic review to explore options to further accelerate our FLNG growth ambitions and to maximize shareholder returns. Turning to Slide 4. We will share some views on how we see the energy market development and the increasing demand for Golar's FLNG offering as the only proven service provider of FLNG. On Slide 4, we highlight the 3 key value drivers for Golar. Starting on the left, the NPV of our $17 billion base backlog is increasing every day, we get closer to all 3 units in operation. Gimi commenced its 20-year charter in June last year. Hilli will end her current charter in Cameroon in July, and then go via Singapore for vessel upgrades before starting her 20-year charter in Argentina in the summer of next year. The Mark II remains on schedule for delivery by year-end '27 and is expected to start her 20-year charter in the summer of '28. Our second value driver in the middle of the slide is the value of the attractive commodity upside embedded in our Argentina contracts. The significant increase in LNG price indices during Q1 increased the value of our commodities exposure by approximately $200 million to $500 million per year in the first 3 years of SESA operations. Once the remaining 4 million tonnes of offtake is secured, this commodity-linked earnings could be locked in through hedging activities. Beyond 2030, there isn't yet an efficient forward market, but recent events speak to significant upside potential in our commodity exposures in several years to come. Lastly, our third pillar of value creation is Golar's position as the only proven service provider of FLNG as a service. This enables us to open new markets to LNG exports and with our proven market-leading CapEx per ton, operational track record and retainage performance, FLNGs represent a compelling value proposition for gas monetization. On the back of the strong commercial development in the quarter, we are now focused on ordering our fourth FLNG within 2026. Turning to Slide 5, which provides an overview of our EBITDA backlog. As stated, all FLNGs have 20-year charters. The backlog stands at $17 billion before commodity upside and inflationary adjustments. And for all our long-term contracts, OpEx, maintenance CapEx and local taxes are covered by our charter counterparts. Turning to Slide 6 and translating our backlog into annual earnings. Starting on the far left, our 70% equity ownership in the FLNG Gimi translates into an annual EBITDA generation of $150 million to Golar. This is before utilization bonuses, which as mentioned, was 19% for Q1. Hilli once on her long-term contract in Argentina will generate $285 million and the Mark II, $400 million. As you can see on the commodity upside, Golar will generate approximately $100 million in excess earnings for FOB prices above $8. As mentioned, the lifting of the forward curves suggest an increased annual earnings in the front years of the -- in the range of $200 million to $500 million. This is represented by the pillar on the third one to the right on the slide. Turning to Slide 7 and looking at the developments of the global energy market. According to BP's energy market outlook, the world today consumes approximately 270 million barrels of oil equivalent. This is set to grow to 295 million barrels of oil by 2035. The two fastest-growing sources to cater for this increase in energy demand is not surprisingly renewables expected to grow at 80% from a relatively low base and LNG to be the second fastest source of energy with a 42% growth rate in the same period. To then shift to the right-hand side of the slide and drilling into where does this supply come from. As mentioned, the market is expected to grow 42% in this period. However, most of the growth is represented by the world's two largest exporters, the U.S. and Qatar. They are expected to increase their market share from 42% to 53% of global supply. Interestingly to note the U.S. is also the marginal producer, i.e., the most expensive producer of LNG globally. With their market share increasing to 33% of global supply, we see strong demand from LNG offtakers to further diversify the way from too much concentration risk on two suppliers. If you turn to Slide 8, this is a geographical map of where LNG export exists today. Interestingly, where Golar operates today in Cameroon, Mauritania, Senegal and soon, Argentina, we represent the only output of LNG in those countries. When we depart Cameroon with Hilli this summer, Cameroon will no longer be an LNG exporter. That's not only a loss to Cameroon, but it's a loss to the global energy market, which will then pay less output of energy. There are still several countries with abundant proven gas reserves awaiting monetization. We are in advanced commercial negotiations with both established LNG exporters now considering to build incremental floating capacity as opposed to land [ base ] as well as new entrants into the market, similar to what we have achieved in Cameroon, Mauritania, Senegal and Argentina. Turning to Slide 9. The reason why this is possible is that the gas can be sourced very attractively because today, the gas is stranded. Hence, on current energy prices, several of these nations have billions of dollars literally stuck in the ground or even worse, in some cases, flared and if they can then deploy an FLNG and monetize that resource, that's the gain, both to the country, to the environment and to global energy. We have, on the middle graph on the top, we have a proven capability to build incremental capacity at the 30% to 40% cost advantage to land-based liquefaction solutions. Lastly, most of the projects we are in discussions with have a shipping advantage versus volumes out of the U.S. Hence, if you have a business with 3 cost drivers, the cost of gas, the liquefaction and the shipping distance and you're cheaper on all 3, we think you have a highly sustainable competitive advantage. In fact, we see this driving the demand and the build-out of the FLNG industry. We see a very similar development to what we saw on the FPSO industry, which started in 1985 and today comprise of more than 250 units. The FLNG industry started in 2018. We're today at 9 on the water and 5 in the construction, i.e., 14 units, and we do expect this industry to grow well north of 100 units over time. So as we say in the strapline here, we believe floating is the future, and we see a resembling development to that of the FPSOs. Turning to Slide 11, a focus on Q1. As explained, we have a continued operational excellence on the Gimi, which produced 19% above her contractual day rate and generated north of $700,000 a day during the quarter. Hilli maintained her 100% economic uptime and has now offloaded 152 cargoes. Because of the strengthening of the commercial pipeline, we are now actively securing slots for long lead items to secure the construction time that we are promising our clients in the commercial discussions which we reconfirm that on Mark I and II, we expect construction time of around 36 months and somewhat longer for Mark II. During the quarter, we also entered into a 10% investment in the San Matias pipeline. This is the pipeline that will bring gas from the Vaca Muerta field to the Gulf of San Matias to service both Hilli and the Mark II for year-round operations. In the shareholders agreement we have in Southern Energy, all of the shareholders have committed to invest pro rata in the San Matias pipeline. We estimate that we will invest a total of around $77 million in the pipeline of equity, and that $77 million will also generate an attractive infrastructure return once operational for 20 years. During the quarter, SESA and Securing Energy for Europe signed an 8-year sale and purchase agreement for 2 million tonnes of the LNG production that we will produce in Argentina. 1 million of the 2 million tonnes is linked to Brent indices, and 1 million tonnes is linked to Henry Hub indices. As mentioned, we also commenced strategic review to both maximize stakeholder value and to accelerate FLNG growth. Turning to Slide 12 and the Hilli. As already mentioned, this unit continues our market-leading performance of 100% economic uptime since we started operation in 2018. We have now produced 152 cargoes and generated $47 million in Q1. Our primary focus on the Hilli is now preparation work for the unit to disconnect from her current location at end of July and sails to Singapore for a vessel upgrade scope expected to last between 6 and 7 months before sailing to Argentina to start her 20-year contract. Turning to Gimi, which saw an all-time high production at 19% above contractual levels. Part of this outperformance is attributed to ambient temperature. Hence, when we see colder temperatures, both in the air and the sea, the units will perform better than what you can expect through summer months. Hence, the 19% should not be annualized, and we do expect a lower production as we enter the summer months. However, we do believe that over a year, we will produce meaningfully above the contractual amount, and we expect that to be reflected in our earnings on a pro rata basis. So the contractual amount brings $150 million to Golar's 70% equity stake. If you assume, let's say, 10% annualized overproduction, that's an extra $15 million of cash earnings to Golar with no associated cost attached. So that's straight to the bottom line. Turning to Slide 14. The Mark II remains on schedule and budget. You can see some of the pictures of the progress on the right-hand side. Most importantly, we have now concluded the midship fabrication, which will house the entire liquefaction plants. We're very pleased with the development and the quality of the work done at CIMC in Yantai, China. And this gives us comfort to also look to do more units at the same location. Turning to Slide 15. We're also progressing the infrastructure required to support our operations in Argentina. The primary work today is, as you can see from the pictures, we are constructing the compressor stations. We are trenching the both onshore and offshore to facilitate for the pipeline. There are two key pipeline activities Initially, Hilli will produce from a 19-kilometer connection to the existing gas rigs in Argentina. That construction is well underway and our very much on schedule to be in place when Hilli arrives. The second pipeline is a dedicated pipeline that will go all the way from Vaca Muerta down to Golfo to San Matias, which is north of 500 kilometers. During the quarter, SESA awarded both line pipes, compressor stations and the EPC to construct that pipeline to also ensure that, that's in place when the Mark II arrives. So far, everything is on schedule and better than originally anticipated on SESA's budgets. Turning to Slide 16. We are now actively working to order our fourth unit within '26. This is on the back of strong development of our commercial pipeline. We see three target regions for incremental business. It continues to be West Africa, Middle East and certainly South America. We are narrowing our scope as to which design we will build. We've taken active steps to secure long lead items. We're inspecting donor vessels as we speak. And we are confirming shipyard pricing, payment terms and delivery. We will update the market as this progresses, but this is now very high on our agenda. I'll now hand the call over to Eduardo to run us through group results for Q1.