Karl Fredrik Staubo
Analyst · Webber Research & Advisory. Please ask your question
Thank you, operator, and welcome to Golar LNG’s Q1 2025 earnings results presentation. My name is Karl Fredrik Staubo, CEO of Golar LNG, and I'm very pleased to be accompanied today by our Chairman, Mr. Tor Olav Trøim, our CFO, Eduardo Maranhao, and our Chief Technical Officer, Mr. Morten Skjong, to present this quarter's results. Before we get into the presentation, please note the forward-looking statements on Slide 2. As normal, we start on Slide 3 with an overview of Golar today. Golar is now a focused FLNG company. We own three units, of which two is on the water and one is on the conversion. The key event of the quarter was securing of two 20-year charters, one for our FLNG Hilli, following the end of our current charter in Cameroon in July next year, as well as entering into definitive agreements for a 20-year charter for our Mark II FLNG, and the construction. As announced on our Q4 call, we have now fully exited LNG shipping with the sale of the Golar Arctic and our sale of the equity stake in Avenir LNG. We currently have a market cap of around $4 billion, a total net debt of shy of $800 million, and a fully delivered net debt to EBITDA of around 2.8 times. Our strong cash flow visibility, solid balance sheet, and market leading position as the only proven provider of FLNG as a service, sets the company up for continued attractive FLNG growth. We have three FLNG designs available for growth, and we will elaborate on our growth ambitions as we go through today's presentation. Turning to Slide 4 and a focus on Hilli, which is still the best performing FLNG globally. Hilli continued her market leading 100% operational uptime during the quarter. Hilli has now delivered 132 cargoes, since contract commencement in 2018, or more than 9.2 million tons of LNG produced. On May 2, all CPs for her 20-year redeployment in Argentina was concluded and final investment decision was given. This secures $5.7 billion of EBITDA backlog before commodity upside. We have now designated a dedicated team of project and operations people to the redeployment scope for Hilli's planned vessel upgrades and transit from Cameroon to Argentina to facilitate for 20 years of on-site operations. On Slide 5, we focus on our second FLNG, the Gimi, which is in her final stage of commissioning and to start her 20-year charter for BP, offshore Mauritania and Senegal. The commencement of operations date will activate the vessel on our P&L statement. Golar share of the contractual EBITDA is $151 million based on 90% capacity utilization. Any production above such level will translate into a pro rata increase in Golar shares of EBITDA Generation by Gimi. Following the commercial reset announced in August last year, Golar has invoiced $196 million in pre-COD payments from the GTA upstream partners. This amount is recognized on our balance sheets and will be amortized over the contract duration. We have now successfully offloaded 2 LNG cargoes and expect COD to remain on track within this quarter. That should mark the start of the 20-year contract period. The picture on the bottom left is from Thursday last week, where we attended an official state visit by the Presidents of Senegal and Mauritania to the GTA hub together with senior management from BP, Cosmos, SMH and Petrosen, marking the introduction of Senegal and Mauritania as LNG exporting countries. Turning to Slide 6 for an update on our Mark II FLNG conversion. The conversion of the LNG carrier Fuji into a 3.5 million tons per annum Mark II FLNG is well into construction. During Q1, the Fuji arrived at the shipyard in China. The vessel has now been divided in two and skidded onshore. The liquefaction plant that will be built on a new midship section is well underway, and a significant portion of our long lead items have arrived at the shipyard, ready for installation. The project remains on schedule for delivery by year end 2027. On May 2nd, simultaneous with the final investment decision for the FLNG Hilli charter in Argentina, we entered into definitive agreements for a 20-year charter for the Mark II to operate alongside Hilli in Argentina. The contract is subject to the same CPs as for the Hilli, when we entered into her definitive agreements in July last year. These CPs include environmental assessment, export license, RIGI protection, and [final investment] (ph) decision by the partners. All the CPs are expected to be lifted within 2025 and we expect the relevant approvals to benefit from the recent Hilli process. The CapEx to EBITDA for the Mark II is around 5.5 times before commodity upside for a 20-year charter period with a further five-year extension option in the charter's favor. On Slide 7, we have visualized these substantial charter developments on a [slide] (ph). Our contract backlog now stands at more than 60 years of combined contract backlog across our 3 FLNGs. Or in dollar terms we have an EBITDA backlog of approximately $17 billion before commodity exposure. This existing fleet is now fully contracted, and we are progressing towards our express target to transform into a market-leading infrastructure company with attractive commodity outsides. In the next section, we will elaborate further on the key attributes of our FLNG charters in Argentina. Turning to the next section and Slide number 9, we illustrate the LNG value chain and Southern Energy's role in introducing Argentina as an LNG exporting nation. As part of the Argentina deal, Southern Energy has secured fixed price gas sales agreements for 20 years from the upstream partners of SESA to provide the project with natural gas sourced from the Vaca Muerta onshore field in Argentina. SESA will be responsible to facilitate for a dedicated pipeline to bring the natural gas from the Vaca Muerta to the FLNG location in the Gulf of San Matias, a distance of about 500 kilometers. This will equate into fixed pipeline fee to SESA. SESA will then be responsible for chartering and operating the FLNGs, as well as marketing of the gas. Hence, SESA's responsibilities include all activities to be taken from the Vaca Muerta until LNG is produced and ready for export. The export point price is referred to as free on board. The difference between free on board prices and the LNG prices you typically recognize on your screen is the shipping costs from the production site to its destination of consumption. The destination price is referred to as delivery ex-ship or DES pricing as highlighted on the slide. As part of the charters, Golar will receive 25% of all achieved LNG prices above $8 per MMBtu in FOB price. Hence, when considering the upside element, the applicable methodology is to consider DES prices less $1 to $2 per MMBtu in shipping costs. In the current market, TTF and JKM spot prices are trading around $12. Hence, today, there's a $2 to $3 upside above the $8 threshold if the project was producing today. Turning to Slide 10 and some of the contract highlights. Both vessels have a 20-year contract term. Hilli will have an annual EBITDA of $285 million and $400 million for the Mark II. OpEx is passed through for both vessels. Both EBITDA tariffs are subject to a CPI adjustment equivalent to 30% of US CPI from year 6. Both vessels have the same upside element of 25% above $8 FOB. And combined, the two contracts provide Golar with an EBITDA backlog of $13.7 billion before the mentioned CPI adjustment and the commodity upside. Turning to slide 11 and further elaborating on the commodity upside element of the charters. As explained, Golar will have a 25% upside above $8. For every dollar above, we have an annual EBITDA of around $70 million. Over the contract lifetime, that was equivalent to $1.4 billion of EBITDA backlog for every dollar achieved pricing is above $8. Importantly, this calculation is based on monthly achieved prices. We have also introduced a limited downside element where Golar gave a temporary discount should annual average FOB prices be below $7.5 and down to $6. This is capped at the total exposure of $105 million over two years, which is equivalent of $210 million. Hence, the total commodity exposure for the contract has a maximum downside of $210 million in return for no cap on the upside. If this contract was in place over the course of the last 5 years, you can see in the table on the bottom right that we would have meaningful additional EBITDA above the contracted amounts. If you take the extreme example of 2022, the commodity element alone would contribute $1.7 billion to $2.1 billion of additional EBITDA to Golar, if the contracts were in place at that time. Even today, if the contracts were operational today, we would see an additional contribution above the contracted amount of an additional $250 million. So to summarize this simplistically, for every dollar FOB prices are above $8, Golar makes an additional $70 million of annual EBITDA. Turning to slide 12 and the further commodity exposure that's inbuilt into the contracts. Golar is a 10% shareholder in Southern Energy, alongside our upstream partners, Pan American, YPF, Pampa Energia, and Harbor Energy. Hence, Golar makes an additional 10% of commodity exposure. This has no downside cap or upside cap, so the true fully aligned shareholder, where a $1 change in the gas price impacts Golar's EBITDA generation by around $28 million. Hence, if you combine the $70 million upside tariff and the $28 million equity ownership, $1 change provides Golar with approximately $100 million of EBITDA upside. This is further illustrated on page 13, where you can see our EBITDA buildup. Hilli has a base tariff of [285, Mark II of 400 combined, that's 685] (ph). The downside element we have is linked to our equity ownership in SESA, and the rest is upside. Every dollar above $8 equates to around $100 million. Every dollar below is a downside of around 28. We see this as a highly attractive risk reward. And also in light of current and future LNG prices, we expect meaningful additional EBITDA contribution from the commodity element. Turning to Slide 14, contracting in Argentina has historically not been fully without risk. And we have gone to great extent to look at risk mitigation, both regulatory and legally in the framework supporting the charters. Some of the highlights include English Law for all charters. All payments are made in US dollars. The Mille led government of Argentina has introduced several regulatory frameworks to boost domestic investment in Argentina. And we are pleased to have received the support of both the state and local authorities to achieve the first ever 30-year non-interruptible LNG export license in the case of FLNG Hilli. And we have also been accepted to the large investment incentive scheme under the RIGI protection, which was a law introduced last year. The important highlights of the RIGI includes certainty and regulatory stability for the duration of the project. We cannot be subject to any new national, provincial or municipal taxes. And we have full freedom to repatriate profits, dividends and capital during the life of the contract term. These are the same protections that are the CPs that we will meet for the Mark II Charter. Turning to Slide 15 and looking at the global LNG market and how our SESA contracts are placed in the wider scheme of the markets. When entering this year, the LNG market stood at around 430 million tons, where the USA is the largest current producer with a 23% market share. More importantly, the significant expected growth in the coming years is driven by volumes out of the US. Hence, we want to identify ourselves with projects that are highly competitive versus US exports, as the marginal producer. If you look on the cost curve on the right hand side, you can see that the delivered price of US export projects is north of $10 for MMBtu. If we then further elaborate on Slide 16, how the recently announced Argentina-Golar contracts stack up versus U.S. Liquefaction projects, there are some interesting data points to note. First and foremost, the gross tariff that we have achieved is significantly higher than that of recently entered into US liquefaction projects. The EBITDA tariff you typically see in the US is net of OpEx and maintenance costs, who ring around $2 whilst we have secured around [$2.45] (ph). The CapEx per ton is currently sitting of around $1 billion for US liquefaction projects versus $600 million in the case of the Mark II. Inflation adjustment is typically hovering between 20% and 30% in the US, 30% for our contract in Argentina. In addition, there's no commodity upside for US liquefaction tolling arrangements, whilst we have the mentioned 25% above $8 of FOB. Hence, what does these characteristics mean? Well, if you have a higher EBITDA tariff and a lower CapEx per ton, you have a higher return on capital employed. Our commodity upside within the tariff provides us with strong upside participation without spot cargo risk. The fixed price gas sales agreement for 20 years provides SESA with a call option on international LNG offtake prices for 20 years. I think no one knows exactly where the gas price is, but you know it will be volatile and we are there to capture 25% of monthly volatility. The OpEx pass through combined with our 30% CPI adjustments provides for improved inflation protection versus US liquefaction projects. Hence, all-in-all, we believe we compare very favourably to the alternative infrastructure investments within LNG liquefaction. This is further illustrated on slide 17. Starting off with the graph on the far left, you want to have as low as possible CapEx per ton and as high as possible average tariff in dollars per MMBtu basis, and compared to some of the listed US liquefaction alternatives, we compare favorable on both measures. Then you want long-term cash flow visibility. We now have 20-year across all of our three assets, hence that's the remaining average life of our contracts. Lastly, to the far right, we've looked at capital markets pricing on a liquefaction capacity basis. If you take total EV and divide over liquefaction capacity in operation, you can see that Golar is trading at just north of a billion dollars per ton, whilst our US colleagues are trading more favorably. If you were to include a fairly significant growth program across all the three companies, you can see that the capital markets pricing further reduces in the case of Golar to shy of $900 million per tonne, whilst comparing to our US listed pairs have a significantly higher pricing. If you were to put that pricing into Golar share price, that would be a very meaningful pickup from our current capital market pricing. Moving on and turning to business updates on Slide 19. The highlights of the quarter across the [BD Department] (ph) is obviously the final investment decision for Hilli, the definitive agreement for the Mark II. However, we continue to see strong progress on further FLNG commercial developments. There are very few yard slots that can deliver within the 2020s. And we now see increased attention from the projects that lost out on the Hilli and the Mark II. We continue to target opportunities with competitive wellhead gas to secure an attractive base tariff with commodity upside participation. We are in detailed commercial conversations across our different vessels designs, Mark I, II and III. And some of these discussions include projects where the charter may want an equity participation in the FLNG. I'll now hand the call over to our Chief Technical Officer, Mr. Morten Skjong, to further elaborate on our service offering and the different designs available for growth.