Robert Marcotte
Analyst · Lucid Capital Markets
Seasonally or catalyst-wise, we typically see a smaller quarter or a lighter quarter in the first quarter of the year as we experienced this year, people putting their numbers together and getting things sorted out. Over the balance of the year, we tend to see fairly consistent flow of opportunities as we did last quarter. So -- and there does tend to be a bump as we get to the end of the year. Fourth quarter tends to be stronger. So over the course of the year, based on last fiscal year's experience, the originations were roughly $350 million. If you look at the pacing, that's pretty much where I would expect us to head towards this year. As far as catalysts are concerned, I think the only question that might damper that, quite frankly, is what the rate outlook is going to be. If rates were to move up, I think that does cause some repricing that does cause some valuation adjustments that are required, and that might slow down some of the activity pending those reset expectations. In terms of other catalysts or expectations, most of the businesses that we are focused on, the companies are modestly leveraged and are generating reasonable growth -- and so their choice is to deleverage and repay us or continue to make acquisitions to, as I said, scale into their infrastructure and their management capabilities. I think the appreciation opportunity of continuing to buy businesses that are reasonable multiples in 7 plus or minus range, combined with the scale benefit that they get once they get EBITDA over $10 million or $20 million and the multiple expansion comes about, that's a pretty compelling opportunity for them to generate additional equity gains. So I would expect there's a natural continuation that will come, adding to some of the smaller credits in the sectors where we're currently exposed. So to me, even if some of the new investment volume slows, I think the consistency and the opportunity for equity appreciation on the existing portfolio assets is particularly attractive and continues to be so. I think we just need to make sure that we stay out of the sectors where there's a lot of competition and their prices are getting bid up because the natural consequences there will be asks for a higher level of leverage when those companies trade at higher multiples, and that increases our credit risk significantly. It also diminishes our control and competitive dynamic. The larger the transaction, the less capable we are to be able to write the entire ticket. And two, the larger the transaction, the more likely some of the larger funds or the more aggressive banks might want to weigh in, and that's obviously going to be a compression of the underlying spread. So from our perspective, it's using our incumbency in those lower situations to continue to grow those credits. And I would expect that to be a meaningful contributor over the course of the balance of the year regardless of the economic environment that we're facing.