David Gladstone
Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
You know, pre-payment is probably the toughest thing to predict. I mean, at this point, there's, probably two or three decent-sized investments that we see likely to prepay. And if those prepayments come in, it's somewhere between $10 million to $25 million, maybe $30 million, the pace of growth originations we are visually going to be pressed to outpace that. I think in the past, we've generally targeted to grow somewhere in the range of $20 million to $25 million a quarter. So, if we're seeing similar amounts of prepayments, it's going to take two or three deal closings a quarter to get that number back up. That's not unheard of in the market where we're playing. When you're dealing with Unitranches, in the range that we're talking about, $20 million to $25 million deals are normal and two or three deals a quarter, is also fairly normal. So, I think if you look back at our origination history when the deal market was running, doing 200 to 215 million in gross originations per year is certainly doable. So, I think putting on 25 net -- 25 net conservative -- is a conservative number for us to continue to grow the assets. Is that going to happen every quarter? I'm sure it's not. But I will also say, we're feeling pretty good where we are and given our current capital base. We tend to slot in above the SBICs, which cap out around $20 million for the most part. And we tend to slot in below the large-scale billion-dollar funds which really don't want to put out anything less than $40 million. So, if it's a zip code of $20 million to $40 million, we are in pretty good shape to be competitive on that profile. And there's obviously a few other guys that are out there, but that's the size deal that we are, I think, pretty well-positioned to continue to originate. And the mix may change a little bit. I expect with rates coming down, we may look at a little bit more second lien paper, which will negate some of the compression in spreads likely to happen as rates come down. But for the most part, I think $25 million plus or minus in net asset growth a quarter is still a track racer that we've averaged and a track record, I would expect for the balance of 2024.