Glenn Chamandy
Analyst · Candice Williams with Canaccord Genuity
Well, typically, what happens -- and I think one of the reasons why we haven't stuck our neck out and gone long on cotton at these types of prices is because the fact is I think we have a pretty efficient supply chain and we're turning our inventory every three months so we have an inventory and we're going to have cotton in our supply chain, would be three months. Typically, what happens is that if cotton does start coming down now, we don't anticipate cotton coming down, crashing down unless there's a global meltdown like there was in 2008. We believe it's going to be a soft landing. Even with the acreage of next year, we think that cotton is going to be trading in the $0.90 to $1.20 range because it's going to take a couple of years for the ending inventories to refill themselves. So the only way that cotton would come down typically fast would be if there's a global crisis out there, for example, like there was in 2008. So we have now set our prices today to be roughly about $1.25 cotton. We estimate next year will trade between $0.90 to $1.20, that's the range that we think it's going to trade at. And based on that, we would not have to modify our prices. There could be, potentially, as the cotton gets flushed out the channel, maybe a little bit more promotional activity reflecting the new price of cotton, I think that sort of what would happen. But the same token, I think that there's still other -- even though cotton -- when cotton does start coming down to the normalized level of $1.80, $0.90 to $1.20, which is our projection maybe for 2011, it may come down even further in 2012 as this continued planting to replenish the inventories, which for sure is going to happen. As that transpires, I mean, other costs are going to curve because cotton has been a big run-up today but there's other costs that are running up throughout the world. In Asia, transportation, labor and other things. So I think that even cotton settles down next year, we'll be mitigating other costs going up the other way. Let's say, for example, that we'll probably keep pricing stability where it is. And maybe one last point is that even today, prices, when I started in this industry in 1993, I can tell you, we sold the white T-shirt for $30.68 a dozen, that's sort of like the market price. Today, we're still selling those shirts for $17 a dozen. So our pricing today compared to 15 years ago is still significantly lower. So we're very competitive in the industry and we're also very competitive relative to the rest of the world. So I'm not really concerned about that type of landing. I think it'll be relatively soft.