Jim Lines
Analyst · Litchfield Hills Research. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Karen. Good morning, everyone and we appreciate you joining our second quarter earnings call. I will begin with a strategic overview of what we are focused on. Our remarks start on slide four. The key element of our strategy is to strengthen and expand predictable revenue streams. This will reduce financial performance volatility caused by large capital projects cyclical demand within crude oil refining and chemical end markets. Refining and chemical end markets have had historical large variation in demand for our products and that is not expected to change in the coming years. To the contrary, we observed these markets to be more volatile today, with greater variation between cycle peaks and bottoms. Our strategy to increase participation and market share within the U.S. Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program will provide a predictable level of revenue. Navy work typically has long-lived backlog, providing vision into a multi-year revenue projection that is predictable and not subject to large variation. The Navy strategy has been successful, with current backlog for this segment at approximately $60 million. We are now on each of the three nuclear propulsion vessel programs. Participation is expanding, as the types of components provided increases. Over the next 12 months we hope to secure the supply of two new components, one for carriers and the other for one of the two submarine programs. We have executed well our naval strategy. Alan Smith & his team have executed superbly. An ongoing confirmation of our success in differentiating on execution, on-time delivery and quality is the expanding percentage of backlog that is one sole source. All our work for the first decade of the strategy was competitively bid. We now are seeing certain procurement done with sole-source bidding. Moreover, many of the orders were first-time fabrications for us of very complex weldments and material combinations. This involves considerable production R&D and the development of efficient build flow methods. Productivity and process improvement will drive fabrication efficiency gains, which will be reflected in better and more predictable margin as we move into repeat fabrications. We expect revenue during the coming few years to continue to expand and also margin quality to improve as we begin repeated fabrications. This end market is an area of M&A concentration as well. We continue to actively engage in discussions with companies serving the Department of Defense and aerospace end markets. With our current portfolio of components provided to aircraft carriers and submarines, along with new components we plan to break into, this segment without M&A is expected to have revenue between $20 million and $30 million annually in the next two years. Also, we are focusing more on our installed base. Graham has a sizable global installed base and a great installation record in North America. In the last 25 years, Graham supplied equipment valued at more than $650 million that was delivered into North America. Moreover, with equipment delivered in the 1970s and '80s, we estimate that our North American installed base approaches $1 billion. Here too, this segment is not as volatile as large capital projects. Our customers generally invest to keep their plants operating well. Also, our thesis continues to play out that certain regions, such as U.S. and Canada, will leverage their facilities to get more from them before investing in large new capacity. Regions with dense installation populations are the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic States and the West Coast plus Alberta. Customers need our knowledge and expertise to identify performance risk and what may be limiting throughput or impacting product quality. We are localizing performance improvement engineers in key regions to focus on our installed base and to assist customers. This is typically high-quality margin work and is not highly cyclical. We are currently building out a U.S. Gulf Coast performance improvement engineering team. Two engineers were placed there in 2018 and we expect to add two more in the next six months. These individuals focus on our customers' plans and our installed base, which will be in addition to the historic focus we have had and we'll continue to have on EPCs and OEMs. M&A focus is also here to add products and/or services. Currently, 30% to 40% of revenue is derived in some way from our installed base. When taken together, the Navy and the predictable installed base revenue segments are anticipated to approach $50 million per year in revenue in the coming two years. Upon achieving that level of predictable revenue, it will dampen the impact of our highly cyclical crude oil refining and chemical large project work. Also, trade policy and tariffs on certain materials have affected competitiveness in international markets and in certain instances it has impacted us in our domestic markets as well. We are also observing customer acceptance of low-cost regions for fabrication of critical components, such as our ejector systems or steam surface condensers. In response, and actually to reposition our competitiveness and to expand market share, the global fabrication supply chain is being more aggressively used by us. In the last 18 months, more than $35 million of new orders were secured by executing differently, to take share where previously we were unsuccessful due to cost. Four of the projects were for international crude oil refining projects that will add to our installed base, which will ultimately drive follow-on revenue in coming decades for revamps, retrofits and spare parts. In the past, we approached using the global fabrication supply chain in limited or targeted manner. Now we are proactive and aggressively attempting to change participation, create broader execution scale and expand market share. A key element is quality control and IP protection. We are building out a supply chain management and quality surveillance organization in support of this strategy. Really, its success was cited just a moment ago are validating. We have a good formula for success. Importantly, the unique or differentiating elements of Graham's IP will be closely controlled as we execute this strategy. I am now moving on to slide five. The success of our focus on the installed base is highlighted by this slide. Comparing the eight-year period between 2004 and -- to 2011 to those of 2012 to 2019, the percentage of commercial revenue derived from the installed base expanded from 28% to 41% of commercial revenue. This has come from stronger and more consistent level of spare parts, revenue, and also end users investing in revamps or retrofits to improve operational reliability or gain incremental throughput capacity. When the original equipment is Graham's, a retrofit or revamp opportunity has a high likelihood of Graham getting an order with strong margin quality. Importantly, and as shown in the second set of slides, gross profit derived from the installed base during these two comparison period expanded from 44% to 61% of total commercial gross profit being derived from the installed base. Crude oil refining the picture on the right top right. Installations are absolutely terrific for follow-on revenue after initial sale. This end market invests in revamps and retrofits and also due to the harsh operating environment in an oil refinery there are strong spare parts follow-on revenue. Surface condensers at the lower right, offer less replacement parts potential but do drive in kind complete replacements after 20 to 30 years of operating life in many cases. Again if the replacement condenser is for a Graham original sale there is a good likelihood of a high-quality margin replacement order for us. Moving on to Slide 6, we confirm full year guidance. Revenue is expected to be between $100 million and $105 million. This is predicated on securing a quick-turn Navy order in this current quarter that we are anticipating. Gross margin is expected to be between 24% and 26%. SG&A spending will be between $17 million and $18 million. Our effective tax rate is approximately 20%. I will now pass it over to Jeff for a review of financial results. Jeff?