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Gerdau S.A. (GGB)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, May 6, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Gerdau's conference call to discuss the results of the first quarter of 2015. [Operator Instructions] We would like to mention that forward-looking statements that might be made during this call related to Gerdau's business perspective, operating and financial projections and targets are assumptions based on the management's expectations regarding the future of the company. Although Gerdau believes that these assumptions are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no guarantee that future events will not affect this evaluation. Today, with us, we have Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter, President and CEO; and André Pires, Vice President and Investor Relations Officer. Now I would like to give the floor to Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter. Mr. Gerdau, you may proceed. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you very much. Good afternoon. Welcome to our conference call to talk about the results of Gerdau. We will start our analysis by the world steel analysis, and afterwards, we will be talking about Gerdau's performance in the first quarter of 2015. And afterwards, we will be detailing the investments made in the period. It's important to mention that the analysis of performance of the first quarter earnings -- performance of the 3 first months of the year will be in relation to the same period in the previous year. After my presentation, André Pires will detail the financial performance of Gerdau, and afterwards, we will be available to answer your questions. For those of you who are following us on the Internet, on Page #2, we will be talking about the world steel sector that continues to go through a challenging moment this year. And in this sense, we would like to highlight the overcapacity installed that has been impacting the profitability of the industry as a whole. Another important point in this…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Thiago Lofiego from Merrill Lynch.

Thiago K. Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I have 2 questions. Long steel in 2015, what was the size -- or what is the size of the drop in apparent consumption that you foresee in the weak long steel market? Do you think it has to do with the situation of the construction companies? And could you say a few words about this? And the second question has to do with the U.S. market. What about imports, how will they impact you further? And what do you foresee for the next few quarters in terms of imports into Brazil? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thiago, this is André. I will talk about Brazil. In Q1, there was a drop, and it's about 8%, the drop foreseen by Instituto Aço Brasil for the remainder of the year. And we even had something slightly higher than that in Q1. We didn't expect it to be so strong. And this is because of the real estate sector infrastructure, and this has a little bit to do with the contractors and the construction companies that you mentioned and also the environment of higher interest rates and credit squeeze. This has been generating higher uncertainties and lower investments. And we see this in the industries, for instance, the automotive industry also shrinking and also agricultural machines. So overall, this is a scenario that accompanies this negative projection of 1%, 1.5%. For the second half, we expect to see some recovery. And for -- we believe that this first quarter and the second quarter will be the weaker ones. But nothing very big in terms of recovery because this is a complicated year, a year of adjustments, and this impacts the economy ultimately.

Thiago K. Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Do you believe that the second quarter will be even weaker? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: This is Pires, Thiago. I was going to answer your second question. In principle, no. The second quarter has just started, and it's very difficult for us to make a comparison or an evaluation yet. Regarding North America, Thiago, in fact, imports continued to bring about a very big pressure on volumes in the market, both for flat steel, but mainly long steel, in our case, in North America. Share of long imports into the U.S. is about 20%, which is like an all-time high. However, the market is still very resilient. The nonresidential construction area is still very good, and we start to see better figures related to infrastructure expenses. I have statistics here in my hand. Total expenditures in infrastructure, if we consider the last 3 months annualized comparison, it grew by 7.3%. I would like to remind you that this part of the long segment was a part that was not responding such as the others, like the industrial segment and nonresidential construction. And I would like to remind you that in terms of infrastructure, if you're talking about projects of the U.S. Department of Transportation, you have to buy in America, the situation -- and this is where we have a more favorable situation vis-a-vis imports. So the U.S. dynamics are still positive. The pressure by imports -- or from pressure is still strong. The dollar continues to be stronger and stronger. But the market dynamics are positive. And your question regarding the metal spread, prices has -- have been relatively stable since moves made by some players at the beginning of the year and as scrap dropped -- metal prices dropped at the beginning. We believe that this should be maintained at the same levels that we see now, which offset, in a way, the volume of shipments that is a little bit lower than we expected.

Operator

Operator

Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley.

Carlos de Alba - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

First, congratulations on the decision to stay in Level 1 of corporate governance. I think it's very important that Gerdau controls all the capital they're investing now. I wanted to ask you how sustainable the lower G&A expenses would be going forward. We saw a dramatic decline and clearly, challenging conditions right now in the market. But I wanted to see if we can put this on a more consistent basis in the model. And the second question is regarding working capital because, clearly, there was a big jump. And even if we exclude the impact that you suggest the currency had in the metric, we still are about 90, 91 days of cash conversion cycle. And we wanted to see if you are already seeing some improvement in the second quarter and what are your expectations for the remainder of the year. And finally, I would really appreciate if you can comment as to the ramp-up that you expect to have on the new plant in Mexico. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Carlos, first question was how sustainable are the SG&A levels and if there is a trend of maintaining that or whether we risk seeing them going up. And then Pires will be answering the other 2 questions. In terms of SG&A, we have already started some work on this direction. And we were able to progress, and the figures show that. We understand there is still room for us to improve, and we will continue to work in this direction. It is associated to some structural reasons. We are adjusting the expenses, our SG&A to the size of the business, and we will continue to work along these lines. It is sustainable, answering your CapEx [ph] question. However, we believe there is still room for improvement there. André…

Operator

Operator

Leonardo Correa from BTG Pactual.

Leonardo Correa - Banco BTG Pactual S.A., Research Division

Analyst

My question has to do with your endeavors on the cost side. In Brazil, you closed 5 mills, with a very strong result in the fourth quarter with an EBITDA margin of 20%. And of course, the first quarter suffers because of seasonality and the demand scenario is also lower, and maybe some fine-tuning of prices have not reflected on your earnings in the first quarter. So in order to understand Brazil, do you see any opportunities -- additional opportunities of streamlining your assets, maybe closing or shutting down some mill or plant that is running below your expectations? And should we expect something closer to 20% in your EBITDA margin? And now regarding leverage. In the past, Gerdau, if I'm not mistaken, was 3x leverage of net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio. We saw some concern -- a higher concern that, of course, there is an effect of the exchange rate that could be reversed in the next 2 quarters, but we have already seen Gerdau issue equity at similar levels -- similar to the current ones. So does that change your priorities in terms of leveraging? And thirdly, just to mention something that was already mentioned regarding the U.S. in the first question. I don't know whether you mentioned the current metal spread. I think this would be helpful. And with the pressure from imports that we see, are you mobilizing to file some case against imports that's coming to the country with dumping prices? Or are you mobilizing, that is to say, the industry, regarding that in the U.S? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Leonardo, this is André Pires. Let's talk with -- let's start with Brazil, efforts made regarding our costs. Our endeavors continue in this direction. And of course, at the end of the year, we had the opportunity…

Operator

Operator

Ivano Westin from Crédit Suisse. Ivano Westin - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Latin America results, with the stronger EBITDA, was a positive surprise. And you said that it was due to expense reduction and also due to currency exchange rates. Is this sustainable over time? Or the import factor will bring pressure on your results on the next few quarters? In Specialty Steels, with the opposite situation, the performance was lower than expected, so could we expect some improvement? And would this improvement come from Brazil from Specialty Steel or from the U.S? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Ivano, this is André Pires. Regarding Latin America, we have been working in the many countries where we are in Latin America, 9 countries, and with a lot of focus on costs and expenses. And in a way, this has been contributing to a higher result. As we said during our speech, in fact, Latin America -- in some countries of Latin America, we had very open countries, and they receive this pressure from imports. But on the other hand, even with a slightly lower economic performance than last year, the economies are in a more, let's say, sound situation than Brazil. So in these countries, the drop in volumes is smaller as we are able to achieve better results, so we believe that this kind of results in Latin America is consistent. And of course, we have the startup of Mexico that will bring about costs because of the startup. But we don't believe there will be a major impact at the beginning. In terms of Specialty Steel, what we can say about that is that, taking the 2 main operations, that are Brazil and North America, we have slightly, well, different situations in Brazil, a strong impact from the…

Operator

Operator

Marcos Assumpção, Itaú BBA. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: The first question is about steel prices in the domestic market. How do you see the premium of rebars in the domestic market vis-à-vis the price of rebars in Turkey? And the second question has to do with Brazil. In Q1, we see a drop in the volume of exports in the Brazil -- or from the Brazil operation in spite of a more favorable exchange rate than in Q4 2014. So what was the main factor that came into play that caused this drop? And what is the outlook for exports for the remainder of the year and also the profitability that you're achieving in your exports today? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Marcos, this is André Pires. We don't talk about prices and premiums, and there are many factors. And it depends on the price in Turkey, and the price was weaker than it is today. It improved and it's stabilized at the current level. So the premium is very dynamic, depending on the price abroad and also the exchange rate that is quite volatile. And what we can say and that we said this morning is that if we look at imports of long steel in the first quarter, it was weaker than it was in the last quarter of 2014 also because of volatility. Regarding exports, if we compare it to the fourth quarter, there was a slight drop in the first quarter of 2015. But this happened because in the fourth quarter, historically, you have higher volumes in exports. This is a normal seasonality of the market. But we saw that the profitability of exports in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the fourth quarter of '14 was higher, it has been higher in the first quarter of 2015. We have been exporting with relatively good margins, and the outlook for exports for the remainder of the year are positive. We continue to see the international markets as a good alternative to the domestic market that continues and will probably continue to be not that strong. And exports are an alternative, and of course, it depends on international prices. And as I said before, in the last few weeks, they have been more resilient and they have stabilized at slightly higher levels than they were at the beginning of this year. So we are relatively bullish with the possibility of exports. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: As a follow-up, Pires, we know that the quarter has just started, but can you compare the profitability of the operation in April with the average of the first quarter? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Marcos, as you said yourself, we are just starting the second quarter. Let's wait for a couple of weeks, and then we will have a better idea, okay?

Operator

Operator

Alan Glezer from Bradesco BBI. Alan Glezer - Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários, Research Division: I have 2 questions. The first question has to do with the Brazil business unit. We saw a drop from 20% to 16% in the first quarter, but the volume dropped by 10% and the costs dropped only 5%. I would like to understand what was the factor that drove this drop in cost that was lower. Is it because of energy prices? Were they higher? Was there any change in your cost structure that led to this discrepancy? And the second question had to do with the iron ore business operation. We see that the purchase of iron ore from third parties dropped vis-à-vis the previous ones. Was it because in the last quarter you saw the opportunity to buy iron ore at lower prices and this did not repeat itself in the first quarter? Or is it -- is there a different rationale behind that? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Alan, this is André Pires. About the drop in cost that was lower than the drop in volume, this is basically the effect of the dilution of our fixed cost as you have lower volumes. If you compare to the first quarter of 2014, the drop was 13% inventory [ph]. You have a dilution of fixed costs -- lower dilution, and as a consequence, the costs drop at a slower pace than sales. Regarding the iron ore, I didn't really understand. You said purchase from third parties? Or are you -- do you mean sale to third parties? Alan Glezer - Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários, Research Division: I'm sorry, sale to third parties. André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Basically, as we have been repeating, this is part of our strategy that is revised on an ongoing basis. Because there was a significant drop in the prices of iron ore, so we have been decreasing our sales to third parties and we have been focusing our iron ore operations in order to meet the needs of our own units, Ouro Branco and others. So this has to do with our strategy of not -- our strategy of being a supplier, so to say, to our own units that buy iron ore and not so much as a commercial operation selling iron ore to third parties. Our production capacity is higher than our own needs, so this means that we will continue to sell to third parties. But this is more the exception than the rule currently.

Operator

Operator

Rodrigo Furtado, XP Management -- Asset Management.

Rodrigo Furtado

Analyst

I would like to know if, due to the restructuring that impacted G&A, there is some nonrecurring effect in the first quarter, be it in costs or in expenses? Is there something nonrecurrent? André Pires de Oliveira Dias: Rodrigo this is Pires. Nothing very significant nonrecurrent in the first quarter of 2015.

Operator

Operator

We are closing the question-and-answer session. And we would like to give the floor back to Mr. Gerdau for his closing remarks. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you very much. Thank you for participating, for your interest, for your questions. In case you still have doubts, our Investor Relations area is available to you. And I count on you on August 12 for our announcement of the results of the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Gerdau's conference call is closed. We thank you for your participation, and wish you all a very good afternoon.