Earnings Labs

Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 16, 2019

$43.17

-4.05%

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Transcript

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Gold Fields' Half-Year Results. Before we get started, in the case of an emergency, there are two exit points, one at the back of the room and one in the front and then the muster point is at the front of the building that you’ve entered. I will hand over to Nick Holland, CEO to begin the presentation and we'll do Q&A afterwards. Over to Nick.

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Thank you very much Avishkar. Good morning everybody. Welcome to our First Half Year Results for 2019, very simple messages for you this morning. Essentially, production is up 9% compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, all in cost around 5% and with cash flow positive from being over $70 million negative in the same period last year. This year our core operations $49 million positive with obviously all of the projects being financed, all of the interest burden having being carried in that number. In particular, Gruyere has commenced production. We’re pleased to inform you that we’ve achieved practical completion at the Gruyere process plant, what does that mean in essence? It’s a technical construction term. In essence it means we’ve achieved 96 hours uninterrupted through the entire valley chain of the process plant, so the crusher, the SAG mill ball mill, the Illusion circuit, the gravity circuit are all functioning, steady state for 96 hours. That's really great news for us. That was achieved on the 10th of August. And so now we're in the process of ramping up that plant over the balance of the year. And as we've mentioned, we're giving a range of production because obviously with all ramp ups, it's a large process facility. It's over 8 million tons a year, that's large in the scheme of processed plants. You might get hiccups along the way. So we're saying that we should be able to ramp that up over the balance of the year. Bear in mind over the long term, Gruyere is a project as the joint venture announced in our recent joint release, that this is a three hundred thousand pounds ANSI mine with long term costs of about AUD$1025 an ounce, at least with 11years to 12 years to…

A - Avishkar Nagaser

Analyst

Okay. So we'll take questions from here first and then we'll go to the conference call. Patrick?

Patrick Mann

Analyst

Thanks a lot. It's Patrick Mann from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. I just wanted to ask on Australia and it is obviously very prospective region, and you've got large tenements in place. Is there a way for you to bring forward some of your drilling or increase the life of mine by you know spending more? Or is it just a case of these things take time, and whether you throw more money at it, it's not going to increase the rate? And then the second thing that caught my eye was just around the potential for a shaft haulage at Granny Smith as you guys go deeper, just what the thinking is around that, and when that would have to come in, and whether haulage costs are getting too expensive there?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Maybe I'll start at the back end, if I may. And in fact, your question is opportune, because I was at the bottom of the mine about five weeks ago when I was down in Australia, where we're actually doing development in zone 120. And it took us in a light vehicle, it took us a little bit over an hour, to get out the mine. You know bearing in mind, we've got light vehicles and we got our trucks going up the spiral inclines out, and that's at 120. Now imagine, we've got zone 135. It's a package that's like a replica. We've got zone 150, which is down to 1.9 kilometers. It's clear to us, that if we're going to capitalize on what we think is somewhere between seven and 10 million ounces here, we have to think differently, both in terms of material handling and mining. So one of the things we'll be doing over the next year, is a mining and material handling study, that -- and material handling is code for our shaft. All right. Let's be clear. So we're going to be doing a study on a shaft, and work out at the same time, how we can crank up the mining, because we're going to put a shaft in. We want to be able to increase the ore. The ore at the mine at the moment is about 1.7 million tonnes a year. And you know as well Patrick, that the process plant can do about 3.5 million tonnes. So if we can get more ore up, one is we utilize more spare capacity in the plant. There's economies of scale. And if you're going to spend money on a shaft, which is no small check to right, now you want to get…

Brendan Ryan

Analyst

Nick, it's Brendan Ryan, Miningmx. You for the last five years you've been a strong supporter of Gold's prospects despite what the market has been through. You've now got the gold price going in the right direction. Could I have your assessment of what's going on? Is this a flash in the pan, or do you think there's something more fundamental at work here in the Gold market?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

I think, the one and one thing you learn by being in the gold industry for a long time, Terence is just smiling next to you, because he knows what I'm going to say. I've been in Gold Fields now for 22 years, and the longer I'm here in the industry, the less I know about the gold price and what it's going to do. There's so many different factors impacting the gold price, Brendan. You know we just don't know, and day traders will tell you today, it's going up, the same day trader next week will tell you it's going down. So it's very volatile. Paul always says, our fortunes lie in the dollar. I think, that's still his view. It'll go up, it'll go down, it's going to be volatile. At the moment, it looks like it's pretty good. Let's enjoy it, but let's not get carried away. Let's be cautious. I'll ask Paul to add because I had some strong views.

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

I think, a lot of it's interplay in what the U.S. being and the dollar. Remember, they are two big investment vehicles, the U.S. dollar, gold and our people moved it. At the moment, I think there's a perception that gold is more of a safe haven. So gold is running us to what, all the political instability, but you don't know, we’re all guessing.

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Let's be cautious, and if we're wrong being cautious and we make more money, that's not a bad problem.

Brendan Ryan

Analyst

Going to throw a follow up on specifically South Deep, the Rand. What do you think happened to the Rand, because that obviously has a huge impact on uncertainty?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Well I think, we are as South Africans we are worried about you know the balance of payment issue. You know the national debt going up all the time. We are an emerging market. We get caught up in the trade wars. We are a victim of trade wars potentially. And added to our own sort of fragile finances, the Rand could be under pressure. But you know the one thing Paul and I've also learned is a weakening Rand in our game is like an interest free loan. You're going to pay it back. It's a question. Is it – are you going to pay it back in 18 months or 24 months? The inflation follows behind. And you know the other thing about South Africa that worries us, is your energy costs for us are probably going to double in five years. Now, we, just us, are spending about R500 million a year on energy. Okay, if that doubles in five years, that's another R500 million for us. What about the rest of the industry? How they're going to cope? We're fairly modest in terms of what we use compared to the big conventional gold mines and the platinum mines. How are they going to survive, the structural inflation here is a major concern. And wages as well continue to go ahead of inflation, and have not been matched by productivity enhancements. If anything, productivity has gone down, wage has gone up, so we've got some serious structural issues here to deal with.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Can we see the questions on the conference call.

Operator

Operator

Yes, we have a question from James [Indiscernible] from RBC Capital Markets.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, good morning and thanks for the call. Just two quick ones around South Deep. Do you think the asset can attract capital, when you compare this to some of the other projects and exploration you have in the international portfolio? And secondly, given your closest peer, is you know potentially looking to access ask about from an asset on a listing point of view. Do you think it’s time now for you to have a look at strategic asset -- strategic options around South Deep or a potential exit from them?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Yes, let's -- let's deal with the second part of your question first. I think, we wouldn't have gone through the massive pain of restructuring allied with a strike, if we were checking out on South Deep. So I think that gives you the answer. We have restructured the operation. We've taken about R$1 billion a year out of the cost base. We've improved the discipline on the mine. We've improved the quality of the management. That is not the signals of someone who's checking out. On the first half of the question, you know one of the beauties of South Deep, is we've actually spent a lot of the money on the fixed infrastructure. Remember, we built the plant expansion. We built the backfill plant. We put in a significant amount of additional cooling, ventilation. We deepened the vent shaft. So the real thing ahead of us now is development. Now we've got to develop the ore body. We've got to open up the ore body, which is not dissimilar. Actually I mean, if you look at Wallaby underground gold mine and Granny Smith, in order to access down to a level 150, we've got to open up the ore body, that is the bulk of it. Obviously there's infrastructure maintenance that will continue. So it's not like we have a mountain of capital ahead of us. It's really development that will be the key thing, obviously replacement of equipment. But as you know we've taken a lot of equipment out of surface, out of operation rather than a park in it up on surface, so that will also defray a lot of the necessary replacements which would otherwise have to have been affected. So we've done a lot of the hard work here James, and we'll get back into new mine development towards the end of the year. And in addition, a lot of the team that will deploy to that, we redeployed into doing ground support and backfill. So in fact, we'll leverage off just redeploying people back to restart those activities so that will actually mean that the incremental costs won't be as high as it would otherwise have been. Hopefully I've answered your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. That's very clear, thanks Nick. And then, just one more on Salares Norte. If we see spot prices persisting at these higher levels, do you feel like that's a project you can go alone on or is your strong preference still to look at a partner to help you around, is the CapEx still under construction there?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

James, I think we still considering all of all options as to how we will bring this to Carlton [ph] are we going to fund the project, that's in process at the moment. Obviously, we'll need to come to a decision by the middle of next year, but we working on it, and there's various streams of work going on as we speak.

Operator

Operator

The next question we have is from Johann Steyn [ph] from Citibank

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you very much. Thanks for taking my question. Nick, you’ve been very successful if you strip up the South Deep duration of the path that you and your team have been very successful with bolt-on acquisitions and disposals. And I think you create a lot value creation through that and probably something that you don't get enough credit for every day. In this current environment, it seems like you've opted not to go more towards greenfield development as opposed to some sort of bolt on acquisitions. Is that a correct assessment or is it just the fact that the bolt on acquisitions as markets become too expensive?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

That's a good question. And I think the one thing we must remember in this global consolidation, which I think is going to gather speed over the next year. You know one of the Canadian analysts sort of asked me the other day on a call, you know what did I think the gold industry would look like in a year's time and who would not be here anymore? And I'm not going to mention names here, but what I did say is, I think it's going to be different. But I think, consolidation is a means of trying to deal with the fact that the gold industry has been undercapitalized for years, and the strategy here is let's keep the least undercapitalized assets and get others to pay a premium at $1500 gold price to buy the more undercapitalized assets with a shorter life looming closure obligations, and hopefully then, we can take the money we get from those investment sales, recapitalize our own business, smaller business, lower cost and move on. So these companies who want to do this are obviously hoping that other companies are going to give them attractive prices for the assets, they don't want, because they're not going to put the best assets on the block. So we've been countercyclical, we invested in new assets three years ago, when everybody else was retiring debt, and making their costs look better by not spending we were still spending. And now that we've finished spending, we have eight to 10 years ahead of us, we don't have any major production gaps, we're happy with what we've got. We've got Salares coming. And as Paul has just mentioned, we're looking at funding options, but clearly, we're going to compromise our funding options if we go and buy other assets that maybe are inferior. I mean how many assets can you buy that can give you two and a half year payback and $500 an ounce costs in this environment. I don't think anyone would want to sell assets like that, they'd want to keep them. Organically as well, Johann, all of our mines have potential. We have potential on all of our existing mines to extend life in, particularly given the fact we have the sunk capital spent in the infrastructure, it's lower risk, because we know the ore bodies, the best place to find gold is where you're mining it. I think that's lower risk, higher return options for us. So never say never. You know we continue to run the rule and everything that's out there, but less likely I think, given Salares coming as well. And the fact that we want to pay down our debt share some cash, that we would be a participant in this process.

Operator

Operator

Those are all the questions on the line.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Mr. Holland, you mentioned one of the risks you had was the electricity supply. Looking at Eskom and their ability to under achieve targets that they've set on an ongoing basis, what is the -- how much can you actually access from alternative sources, and how much of a problem would that be? How much of a setback would it be, if they continued to take even longer than expected to keep the new operations going?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

So we've done a study on a 40-megawatt solar field at South Deep, which we think is viable, which you know bear in mind you know you can use solar when it's dark and the battery storage is limited. That could probably add on average about 20 megs. And we are using somewhere between 60 and 80 megs. So that's quite a material change to our power composition. So we have a process, we’re in a regulatory process now, and now we need approvals from the likes of Mercer and so we believe there's quite a lineup of people in as well. But if we can get approval, we will implement that in stages, because on a cost basis, we believe that makes sense from day one. Now bear in mind what I just said, is that if Eskom continues getting 15% a year, that you're going to double your costs over five years, it'll be even more in the money in five years’ time. So we think it's an imperative, and we'd like to be in a position if all goes well to start the first stage of that early next year.

Paul Schmidt

Analyst

Sorry. We do also have standby generators, Martin, correct me 10 going up to 12 at the end of the year of profit mix, that we've really got on site.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. May I ask another question?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

When you were covering the South African operations, you had a number here gold production increases on the South Deep. And we're looking at $12.75 an ounce. Now looking at the volatility of the gold price, which has been immense recently, how far down could that go before you actually see it, so you've got to cease operations or slow down operations considerably?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Yes, well look the fact that we've already brought our costs down significantly in the second quarter, I think is showing in fact it's going the other way at the moment. And off a very high cost base, clearly we've said that Gold Fields franchise assets, now we want to get to as close as we can to $900 and make a 15% margin at a $1200 gold price. So that's the task for the South Deep team is to drive us down there and you know if you look at an increase in volume what it does. You know you've dropped your costs to now 30% plus just by getting a modest increase in volume, and we’re still only using these sort of production levels, a third of the installed capacity. So we've got capacity here. So the marginal cost of extra tonnes will be lower, quite a sizeable amount lower than the all in costs. So that's why it's a volume. It always has been – or it will be. And if you can get more open stoping through, which is your big volume, development and stresses on reef, but it's low volume, get you open stopes through, that's really where you're going to see the leverage here. So let's see where we go, but we're encouraged by where we sit today.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

[Indiscernible]

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Nick, following up on your comments on South Africa. Can I ask you for your overall assessment of what's going to happen to the gold industry here? I mean, given AngloGold wants Art, Harmony wants to go to P&G and even the PRC says it wants to invest in South Africa. What is the future of gold mining in this country? Sorry West Africa.

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Well look, I've been saying for a long time that the gold industry is in decline in South Africa. And you know recently, we were eclipsed by Ghana as you saw. Ghana now is the largest gold producer in Africa. And I think South Africa now is down to sub hundred and thirty tonnes a year. I think the die is cast, because if you look at increasing depth, declining grades, increasing costs, you know that's a combination altogether. That is a real storm against you. So I think the Rand, when it weakens, it gives you some respite, but we've seen this over the years. You know the Rand weakens a bit. You get a bit of a respite, inflation comes up, then you get the combined effect of increasing depth, more capital required to access debt, more ventilation, more cooling, rate comes down, the gold industry is in decline and it will continue to be in decline. We're only now 1% of GDP. The gold industry. So how relevant are we in terms of the economy. That's the reality of where we are.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Okay, I’ve got one from the webcast; please can you unpack the impact of the hedge and the potential impact going into 2020?

Nicholas Holland

Analyst

Well, it's in the book, as we've said the mark-to-market loss at the end of June was $120 million. We've basically hedged half of Australia's production for next year, off of Ghana's production. We've hedged 75% of South Deep, one of the main reasons that your concerns raised earlier. We've got hedges of around R680,000 a kilogram for South Deep for next year. That's to give Martin a bit of headroom to get the mine up to the costs, the cost level where we want it. Yes. The reason we have taken out the hedges is not that we're trying to guess the gold price. Our planning assumptions for next year are US$1200 AUD1600 and R555,000 a kilogram. When we embarked on this hedging exercise, it was about 3.5 months ago. You need to remember where the prices were then. What we did is, we had a draft ops plan for 20. We had a certain cash flow and we were requested what can we do to improve it? The value of these hedges. Let's ignore the mark-to-market, but visibly what we saw is the planning process as about US$130 million of free cash flow post-tax to our proposed cash flow for next. That's the reason we took it. So as we said, we don't know where the gold price is going. We really don't know. We saw some very attractive prices and we said, let's take some of the money off the table. We are not strategic long term hedges, we will only hedge for a year in advance, and that's what we have done. It's underwater at the moment, but who knows where it will be at the end of the year. Maybe it's worth, maybe it's better, but we're not trying to guess it, at least now. No we're not finalized my plan for next year, which we doing in the next few months. I can put in some different numbers. We’re good on production, we’re good in costs. We always were subject to the gold price volatility. We've locked in a lot of it now. So we can basically know what our cash flow will be for next year when we do our plans, and complete it in three months’ time.

Avishkar Nagaser

Operator

Is there one last one here? No, with that, thank you very much. Media, there are roundtables upstairs. Thank you.