Nick Noviello
Analyst · Brad Zelnick from Credit Suisse
Thank you Greg and good afternoon everyone. I would like to remind you that all references to financial metrics are non-GAAP, unless otherwise stated. Please note we have posted information on implied billings and deferred revenue, as well as other tables in our supplemental materials and CFO commentary to our Investor Relations website. As Greg discussed in his comments, we acknowledge that we did not anticipate the speed at which the mix of our ratable versus product business in Enterprise would shift. In light of this, we have now built into our Q4 and fiscal year 2018 outlook the impact of an ongoing and accelerated shift to ratable business in our Enterprise segment and its impact to in-period revenue. We will now be reporting implied billings quarterly, in addition to deferred revenue, which provides additional visibility into the growth of the Enterprise business as it becomes more ratable. Let me now review our financial results for Q3 in more detail. Our third quarter revenue was $1.234 billion. This was comprised of Consumer Digital Safety revenue at the high-end of our prior revenue guidance range and Enterprise Security revenue below the low-end of our prior revenue guidance range. Looking at organic revenue growth in constant currency, adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures: Total company year-over-year revenue growth was 2%. Year-over-year revenue growth was comprised of Consumer Digital Safety segment revenue growth of 4% and an Enterprise Security segment decline of 1%. At the same time, year-over-year deferred revenue, adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures, was up 5% in our Consumer Digital Safety segment and up 23% in our Enterprise Security segment. As we indicated last quarter, we look at the combination of in-quarter recognized revenue and deferred revenue as a strong indicator of the health of our business segments. Third quarter revenue came in lower than expected primarily due to the mix of product and ratable business in our Enterprise segment. As we discussed a quarter ago, our pipeline of business coming into Q3 was significantly larger than our prior forecasts and was made up of increasingly large, cross-sell opportunities. The trend towards ratable business we saw in the second quarter was built into our Q3 guidance. However, that trend accelerated in the third quarter, faster than we forecasted. Ultimately, the transactions we closed, some of which Greg referenced, are proof our Enterprise strategy is working. You can see the strength of our business in implied billings growth, deferred revenue and cash flow. Operating margin for the third quarter was 38%, above the high-end of our prior guidance range of 36% to 37%. The higher operating margin was the result of continued cost and operating efficiencies, including the completion of the net cost reduction and synergy programs we discussed last quarter, across the business. Now turning to tax. As a result of recent tax reform, we reduced our estimated effective tax rate from 29.5% to 26.8% for fiscal 2018 and in Q3, trued up our year-to-date effective tax rate accordingly. This resulted in a Q3 rate of approximately 22.5%. On a GAAP basis, our tax provision for Q3 includes a provisional benefit of approximately $1.6 billion from adjustments to previous deferred tax liabilities related to foreign earnings and re-measurement of U.S. deferred income taxes. This was partially offset by a liability of approximately $800 million for the one-time transition tax. Fully diluted earnings per share was $0.49, $0.03 above the high-end of our prior guidance range, impacted by higher operating margins and a favorable impact of just over $0.04 from the effective tax rate true-up. Excluding the in-quarter tax rate benefit, we achieved EPS near the high-end of our guidance range, enabled by effective cost management across the business. Fully diluted shares outstanding was lower by seven million shares at 667 million as compared to our prior Q3 guidance of 674 million, primarily due to less dilution from our convertible notes driven by our lower share price. Please see the dilution tables posted to our Investor Relations website where you can see the impact to diluted share count from the convertible notes at various stock prices. Cash flow from operating activities during the quarter was $294 million and CapEx was $33 million. During the quarter, we prepaid $630 million of principal on our senior term loans. We have reduced our gross debt from approximately $8.3 billion at the beginning of the fiscal year to $5.7 billion at the end of the third quarter. $1.75 billion of this balance is convertible notes. At the end of the third quarter, we had $2.5 billion in cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet. $1.6 billion of that was held by our foreign subsidiaries, just over $1 billion of which we have identified as available for repatriation in the near term. As a result of tax reform, we would not expect to incur additional U.S. tax liability on that repatriation. We are considering our go-forward capital allocation strategy in light of tax reform and expect to update you on our next quarter's earnings conference call. As a reminder, we have $800 million remaining under our current share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors. Now let's discuss in more detail our Q3 operating segment performance. First, Enterprise Security. Our Enterprise Security segment revenue was $639 million, reflecting an organic decline of 1% year-over-year in constant currency. As you know, we completed the sale of the WSS and PKI solutions to DigiCert at the end of October. Financial results related to these solutions for the month of October were as expected and are included as part of the overall Enterprise Security segment in Q3. Adjusted deferred revenue was up $316 million or 23% year-over-year, $88 million of which is short term and $228 million of which is long term. Implied billings was up 27% year-over-year, excluding any impact from divestitures. Please note, consistent with our disclosure around deferred revenue, we are now providing seven quarters of implied billings historical data in the Q3 Supplemental Information posted to our IR website. We believe implied billings growth is an important measure of the growth of our Enterprise business as we transition to a more ratable product mix. After taking into account the shift to more ratable business and increased contract duration for new business consistent with our cross-sell strategy, we believe our implied billings growth supports high single-digit to low double-digit Enterprise revenue growth over time. And as you will hear in my guidance comments, we are anticipating continued double-digit implied billings growth in the fourth quarter. Finally, Enterprise Security segment operating margin was 23%, up over six points year-over-year, as we continue to optimize the cost structure of the business. Turning to Consumer Digital Safety. Our Consumer Digital Safety segment revenue was $595 million and reflected organic growth of 4% year-over-year in constant currency. Moving to our Consumer metrics, which are defined in the CFO commentary: Direct customer count was 21.3 million at the end of the quarter, up slightly from Q2. Direct ARPU increased to $8.38 per month, up 4% from Q2. If you recall, we expect these direct customer statistics to represent approximately 90% of the revenue stream at any one point in time. Consumer Digital Safety operating margin was 53%. Sequentially this is a five point increase in operating margin and is in part related to marketing spending we pulled ahead into Q2, timing of investments and other efficiencies. Moving to our fourth quarter outlook. As I indicated, we are building the accelerating ratable mix shift in our Enterprise segment into our outlook and are lowering our guidance to reflect this transition. We now expect fourth quarter revenue guidance of $1.175 billion to $1.205 billion. This represents an organic growth rate of 1.5% year-over-year at the mid-point in constant currency. Enterprise revenue of $575 million to $595 million, down 4% year-over-year in organic revenue in constant currency at the mid-point due to the ratable shift in business mix. This is down sequentially from Q3 due to the WSS/PKI divestiture, which contributed over $30 million to segment revenue in Q3, as well as increased ratable business mix. As Greg indicated, our pipeline and expectations for business we will close in Q4 are higher than in Q3, but we are forecasting a higher ratable mix of business as well. Ultimately, we expect, excluding any impact from divestitures, double-digit implied billings growth year-over-year in Q4, evidencing the growth of our business and supporting our medium-term growth outlook. Consumer Digital Safety revenue of $600 million to $610 million, representing an organic growth rate in constant currency of 6% year-over-year at the mid-point, Consolidated operating margins of 33% to 34%, an effective tax rate of 26.8% and EPS of $0.37 to $0.41 on an underlying share count of 680 million fully diluted shares. Now moving to our updated fiscal year 2018 outlook. We now expect full year revenue guidance of $4.915 billion to $4.945 billion, down from our previously guided $5 billion to $5.1 billion, reflecting the transition in our Enterprise Security segment. Enterprise revenue of $2.585 billion to $2.605 billion. This represents a decline of 2% in the organic growth rate in constant currency at the mid-point. Consumer Digital Safety revenue of $2.330 billion to $2.340 billion, representing an organic growth rate in constant currency of roughly 3% year over year. Consolidated operating margins for fiscal year 2018 of approximately 34% compared to previous guidance of 35% to 36%. EPS for fiscal year 2018 of $1.60 to $1.64, compared to previous guidance of $1.66 to $1.76. Fully diluted shares of 669 million. And fiscal year 2018 cash flow from operations around the high-end of our previous guidance range of $800 million to $1 billion. Let me address our outlook for fiscal year 2019 and 2020. We believe that in fiscal year 2019 our financial model will be in transition as we evolve to a company with a higher mix of ratable revenue in our Enterprise Security segment. We continue to expect that our Consumer Digital Safety segment will grow organically in the low to mid single digits in fiscal year 2019. We expect that as we exit fiscal year 2019, our Enterprise Security segment revenue growth will be in the mid to high single digits with high visibility and growing from there. During this model transition, implied billings growth will be an important measure of the trajectory of our Enterprise Security segment. And during the transition, expect disciplined management of costs and investments across the business and strong cash flow. Our medium-term outlook, beyond fiscal year 2019, is intact, with mid to high single-digit revenue growth and EPS growth in the low teens. We continue to expect Consumer Digital Safety organic revenue growth in the low to mid single digits and Enterprise Security segment organic revenue growth in the high single to low double digits. We expect our effective tax rate will benefit from the tax reform bill and are currently estimating a rate in the 21% to 22% range. We expect to further hone our effective tax rate estimate over the next few months and we will consider reinvesting part of the savings from a lower effective tax rate as early as fiscal year 2019. We will provide our full financial outlook and specific guidance for fiscal 2019 on our fourth quarter earnings call. Let me now turn the call back over to Greg for some closing remarks.