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GE Aerospace (GE)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Jan 29, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Brandon, and I’ll be your conference coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.

Steve Winoker

Analyst

Thanks, Brandon. Good morning and welcome to GE’s fourth quarter 2019 earnings call. I’m joined by our Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Jamie Miller. Before we start, I’d like to remind you that the press release and presentation are available on our website. Note that some of the statements we’re making are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements can change as the world changes. Please note that we will hold an investor call on Wednesday, March 4th to provide more detail on our 2020 outlook. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Larry.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Steve, thanks. Good morning, everyone and thank you for Joining us. I’ll begin with an overview on our performance and progress on our execution against our strategic priorities. Jamie will cover the financials in more detail, and then will turn to our expectations for 2020. Starting on slide two, you’ll find a snapshot of our fourth quarter and full year results. Overall, fourth quarter marked a strong close to the year as we met or exceeded our financial targets in 2019. Orders were down 3% organically in the quarter as positive growth in Aviation and Healthcare was more than offset by declines in Power and Renewables. Notably, Aviation’s double-digit orders growth was driven by our newly formed Aeroderivatives JV between GE Power and Baker Hughes, following deconsolidation. Excluding that JV, Aviation’s orders were up 1%. For the year, total Company orders closed up 1% organically. We ended 2019 with backlog of $405 billion, up 15% year-on-year. This comprises equipment of $79 billion, up 2%; and services of $326 billion, up 19%, representing approximately 80% of our backlog. We delivered Industrial segment organic revenue growth of 4.6% in the quarter, and 5.5% for the full year, with all segments posting positive growth. Our service businesses, which represent about half of our industrial revenue in the quarter and the year, continue to be a differentiator with our customers, and a key driver of profitability. Our adjusted Industrial profit margin expanded 410 basis points and 390 basis points organically in the quarter, driven by Aviation and Power. For the year, margins expanded 60 basis points and 10 basis points organically, driven by Power and Healthcare with Aviation margins closing above 20%. We generated Industrial free cash flow of $3.9 billion in the quarter and $2.3 billion for the full year. This came in…

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Thanks, Larry. Starting with the fourth quarter summary. Orders were $24.9 billion, down 3% organically, with growth in aviation largely from Aero orders, as well as Healthcare offset by declines in Power and Renewables. Equipment orders were down 10% organically while services were up 6% organically. Consolidated revenue was $26.2 billion, down 1% in the quarter. Industrial segment revenue was up 4.6% organically with equipment revenue up 7% and services revenue up 2% and organic growth in all segments. The biggest drivers of growth were Aviation equipment and services, Renewables equipment, driven by onshore wind and Power services. For the year, Industrial segment revenue was up 5.5% organically. Adjusted Industrial profit margins were 11.3% in the quarter, up 410 basis points reported. The majority of margin accretion was driven by better operational rigor and the non-repeat of about $800 million of charges we took in Gas Power last year, and higher volume in Aviation services. All segments other than Renewables expanded margins in the quarter. For the year, we saw significant margin expansion in Power and Healthcare, the declines in Renewables and Aviation. Fourth quarter net EPS was $0.06, continuing EPS was $0.07, and adjusted EPS was $0.21. Walking from continuing EPS, we had $0.08 from gains and our remaining stake in Baker Hughes, which we measure at fair value each quarter. On restructuring and other items, we incurred $0.03 of charges related to restructuring and M&A cost across our segments, principally in Power. Next, we incurred a $0.07 charge for deal taxes related to the BioPharma transaction, based on preparatory internal restructuring ahead of the expected close in the first quarter. Non-operating pension and other benefit plans were $0.10 in the quarter, which includes about $600 million of additional expense this quarter associated with the pension freeze we announced…

Larry Culp

Analyst

Jamie, thanks. Before I move to our outlook, I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge our CFO transition announcement since our last earnings call and recognize Jamie’s significant contributions to GE during her tenure. She has been a trusted partner through an unprecedented period of change, including my own transition into the CEO role and your complete refresh of the GE Board, portfolio moves to make GE a more focused industrial Company and foundational shifts in our culture to drive greater rigor and transparency. She has been instrumental in setting and spearheading our deleveraging plan, and she will leave GE in a place where we are set to achieve those deleveraging targets in 2020. I appreciate not only her many contributions across the organization, but also her personal support and partnership. On behalf of all of us, thank you, Jamie. From where I sit today, I’m excited and confident in our efforts to build a stronger and more focused GE. We are planning to provide you a detailed 2020 outlook by segment on our March 4th investor call. But today, I’ll share our expectations for the total Company. So, moving to slide 10, you’ll find our targets on the right hand side. We’re expecting organic growth in the low-single-digit range for Industrial; organic expansion of up to 75 basis points for Industrial operating margins; $0.50 to $0.60 for adjusted EPS; and a range of $2 billion to $4 billion for our Industrial free cash flow. There are a number of key assumptions underpinning our plan again this year. First is the lost cash and earnings from dispositions, most notably BioPharma and Baker Hughes. Our outlook assumes that the BioPharma sale closes in the first quarter, and a reduction of Baker Hughes dividends, in line with the orderly sale of…

Steve Winoker

Analyst

Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I’d ask everyone in the queue again to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question and a follow-up, so we can get to as many people as possible. Brandon, please open the line.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And from Bank of America, we have Andrew Obin. Please go ahead.

Andrew Obin

Analyst

I just want to start out by expressing my thanks to Jamie and best wishes going forward.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Thank you.

Andrew Obin

Analyst

So, a couple of questions; I’ll just ask both of them together. So, the first one is Airbus has publicly indicated that they’re making sizable adjustments in payables in 2020. And, we understand engines is one of the biggest components. So, how much, if any of this is baked into your 2020 forecast? And the follow-up question is dynamic in Power Services improving. Nice to see, but what are you doing differently exactly? So, these are my two questions. Thanks.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Andrew, as you know well, we have an excellent relationship with Airbus. I was with them just last week, in fact. The guide today relative to Aviation is one we want by design to keep at a higher level. As you can imagine, the primary puts and takes here are really going to be in and around the timing, the assumptions with respect to MAX. But I think, on balance, we have work to do with our friends at Airbus. We’re committed to and will provide more of an update in March.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Yes. And Andrew, as it relates to Airbus, I can’t comment on their aviation payables. What I can tell you, we talked on the third quarter call about the impact of some of our timing of payment of discounts and allowances back to the airframers. And it is across the board, across multiple of our programs, there are puts and takes. But, we do see on that front, some -- we saw tailwinds in 2019. We do see some headwinds in 2020. And that’s baked into how we’re thinking about 2020.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Andrew, your second question, if I heard it correctly, was about Power Services?

Andrew Obin

Analyst

Correct.

Larry Culp

Analyst

I would say we’re doing a number of things. Clearly, within Gas Power, what we see is just better commercial execution in and around the way we are coordinating with our customers there, both their outage schedule and our other CSA applications. I would tell you on the transactional side, what you see the team doing -- or what I saw the team do through the course of the year is just better, more regular call patterns, contacts, point - forward planning with our customers, so that we are in front of the opportunities to sell into their installed base to the extent possible. That commercial work is really coupled with what we’re doing operationally to improve lead times, to improve on-time delivery, so that we not only are well-positioned to deliver on time and within budget scheduled outages, but that we have a better quick response capability. So, I think, as we look at the fourth quarter numbers, it’s good to see the uptick that we did. I think, if you look at the year on balance, clearly suggests there’s more work to do. And I think, team is fully committed to doing that and continuing the exit momentum here through 2020.

Andrew Obin

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

From Wolfe Research, we have Nigel Coe. Please go ahead.

Nigel Coe

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I do want to echo Andrew’s comments. Thanks, Jamie. Good luck. You’ll be missed by us. I’m not sure you’ll miss us. But, good luck.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Thanks, Nigel.

Nigel Coe

Analyst

I’m sure, you won’t miss these calls. That’s for sure. I do want to touch on Aviation. Just first of all, obviously the EBIT performance this quarter was very impressive. I think, it’s a record quarterly performance. Anything unusual to factor in there or to think about? But, more importantly how do we think about the boundaries around the MAX grounding? If production is grounded through the year end, how do we think about the earnings and free cash impact to GE?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Nigel, let me -- let us take those in reverse order. You’re exactly right in terms of the strong performance. And I would argue the strong performance for the full year that we saw in Aviation, despite the MAX headwinds. But, as we look forward, I think we’re looking at a more complex situation in and around the MAX. Clearly, priority one here is safety. I think, our friends at Boeing have been crystal clear. We’re going to take the FAA’s lead here, and we’re trying to support both Boeing and the FAA to the fullest extent possible. I think, if you look back, before we look forward, clearly, we were building engines; we were delivering to Boeing at normal rates through 2019. We’re going to see our shipment rates fall roughly half the ‘19 rate in ‘20. Clearly, it’s going to be a bit of a gap here as a result relative to deliveries. And in turn, that drives some of the variability that you see in the guide. I think, from an operating perspective, what we’re really dealing with are three things, right? We are going to have a lower build profile, which in turn will challenge us on the cost side. We need to make sure that we are adjusting our cost structure accordingly but also taking the long view, because this will be a temporary wall, as Boeing has indicated, and we will be ramping up presumably later in the year. So, we want to make sure that not only our teams, but our supply chains are prepared to rebound. With the mid-year return to service, we know we’re going to see fewer spare engine deliveries. Folks were ramping through the back half of last year in preparation for return to service. There’ll be a bit of a wall there as well that will put a little bit of mix pressure on us obviously. And I think, we’ll continue to see fewer new orders, which are a nice source of cash for us, at least until mid-year. But, if that mid-year return to services realized, clearly we’re going to resume deliveries. And that’ll be a positive from a cash perspective in terms of just the AR that will come in, clearly a bit of an offset relative to process -- progress liquidation. So, a number of moving pieces here. We’re going to manage through this as we always do. But, it’s not simply the setup that we saw last year where we were building, shipping, delivering and seeing the receivables build, many more moving pieces as we look ahead to 2020.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

And Nigel, with respect to your second question on Aviation EBITDA quarter-over-quarter. We saw strength in our aftermarket businesses at Aviation, so stronger profitability there year-over-year. We also benefited from the install spares mix we had in the quarter. We had some variable cost productivity, and all of that was somewhat offset by higher R&D and a little bit higher SG&A.

Operator

Operator

From RBC Capital Markets, we have Deane Dray.

Deane Dray

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. And, my congratulations and goodbye to Jamie as well.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you, Deane.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Good morning, Deane.

Deane Dray

Analyst

Larry, I know we’re probably going to cover this on the March 4 call, but just some bigger picture thoughts on the approach to guidance this year. You had said earlier that you’re really not targeting EPS specifically. It’s more of an outcome and free cash flow was the target. Just remind us how we might be seeing that in action this year. And do you have a contingency number, either implicitly or explicitly as part of this range?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Deane, as you indicated at the beginning of that question, we’ll get into a lot more detail on the 4th of March. I think, all we really wanted to do today quite frankly is give everybody our best look at the fourth quarter and the quarter in the context of 2019. We thought that given where we are in preparation for 2020, we could also share earlier this year than we did last year. The broad contours of our outlook for the New Year, you have that. I think that, again, MAX is probably the source of the greatest volatility with the -- or range within that guidance. Clearly, operationally, I alluded earlier to Renewables being a priority, not that we’re done at Power, but I think we’ve got momentum there with clear work to do at Renewables. But, Deane, your point, I think is spot on. We’re encouraged to look forward here and to see a low-single-digit top-line with everything going on. We think we have the prospect for good margin expansion. That leads to the EPS range, but make no mistake. This team -- the businesses are far more focused on sustainable cash flow generation. And that’s I think what you see in the $2 billion to $4 billion range for next year, I think you see evidence of that in the way that we that we finished. But, what you don’t see in terms of the numbers, what we see in all of our interactions with the businesses, I think it’s just a heightened level of discipline upfront when we’re talking about new business, not only in terms of price but frankly, terms, conditions, scope, everything that can go into making a new order, be it for equipment or service, positive and accretive or not. I think, the daily management that we talk about, applies in our factories when we’re building new equipment, in the field when we are installing that same equipment in the context of projects, let alone what we do in terms of driving service quality and productivity. So, when you put all that together in a long cycle business, there are going to be different ups and downs in the course of any one quarter. But again, this team is focused on a much more sustainable, higher level of free cash performance over the long-term.

Deane Dray

Analyst

And just as a follow-up, could you expand on the point on Renewables where you’re still in investment mode in wind specifically?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Sure. The way I think about Renewables, one segment, but we’ve got, if you will, three different operating priorities in front of us. Our onshore business, clearly is our most mature business in many respects, it’s what drives the segment. We are investing there. But, you look at the growth in onshore wind, last year a very healthy double-digit level, pleased with that. We need to see that convert more directly into margins and cash. The investment reference I was making was really with respect to offshore wind. You’ve seen some big numbers here in the last 90 days relative to some experts’ outlook for offshore wind. This is an area where we are an innovator. We think with Haliade-X, we have an opportunity to bring an exciting technology to market in 2021 that will help improve our overall performance. But in the near-term, that is a -- that’s an earnings and cash drag for us. The third bit of Renewables, again, really is the legacy Alstom JVs in Grid and Hydro. We had a full year of the JV performance consolidated in ‘19. That didn’t help our reported numbers. We’re a little bit behind I think where we would like to be in terms of executing on that turn around, which is why we put that front and center here in 2020. I’ll get into that kin more detail if you like. But, those are the three pieces, the investment call out specifically is in and around offshore wind and the Haliade-X program.

Operator

Operator

From JP Morgan, we have Steve Tusa. Please go ahead.

Steve Tusa

Analyst

Congrats on the good cash finish at the end of the year. Can you just give us a little bit of color on progress and what kind of impact that ultimately had for 2019? And then also, the $2.1 billion in corporate expense for free cash flow that includes the Baker dividend. So, it’s even higher than that kind of on a core basis. What goes into that number? And then, one more, just on kind of the high level color you guys gave us last March on 2020 and then the 2021 commentary. Is that considered to be stale now, given you’re going to kind of update that in March or how should we think about those kind of -- that kind of high level guide?

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Yes. Steve, I’ll answer your progress question, but maybe you can repeat your second question. I didn’t quite catch that.

Steve Tusa

Analyst

Yes. Slide 15, the corporate, negative $2.1 billion.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Sorry. Okay. Yes. So, on progress for the year, progress contributed $1.3 billion in working capital inflows. Renewables and Aviation progress and Power was up over the prior year as well. When you look at Corporate, a couple of big drivers there. One is just higher cash tax payments, the other is higher restructuring and corporate. And year-over-year those were the two biggest drivers. When you look out, that starts to temper and come back in line with our expense levels.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Steve, I think with respect to the guidance, again, in 30 some days, we’re going to be in front of everybody with an update on how we’re thinking about ‘20 and the future. So, I’m not sure how I would characterize that. We can certainly speak to some of the moving pieces in and around the growth and OMX. [Ph] Again, to the earlier question, we’re going to be very focused on free cash, and how we how we step up in 2020.We think we can do that in Aviation, recognizing some of the dynamics at -- in and around the 737 MAX. I would also say, we know we’re going to be challenged in Renewables. And probably we’ll see them not improve their free cash performance, probably we’ll see a step back in 2020. But, we’ll take you through all the details and give you the freshest, latest, consolidated view when we’re together in early March.

Operator

Operator

From UBS, we have Markus Mittermaier. Please go ahead.

Markus Mittermaier

Analyst

Yes. Hi. Good morning, everybody. And Jamie, thanks also from my side. On the free cash flow guide, I appreciate that we get more detail on that on the granularity in March. But, just high level, it looks like Power came out significantly better than what we thought maybe nine months ago. How does that progress in the Power portfolio, Power Conversion turnaround? Sort of how you think about that? What’s the timeline? I think, you’ve taken out significant cost down in the Gas Power side. What should we kind of think about as the jumping off point into 2020 here for Power?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Markus, you’re exactly right. I mean, if we look at where we finished versus where we thought we might be back in March, Power, clearly was the major driver of the outperformance. I think, Jamie referenced in her prepared remarks a better than anticipated supply chain finance transition there. We clearly spent less in restructuring as well. And, again, despite the headwind with the MAX, Aviation was able to do a little bit better. You put all that together, I think it suggests better execution more broadly. Again, I’d like to preserve some of the details as we go from ‘19 to ‘20 and for the March update. But, much of what’s happening in Gas Power is underway within the Power portfolio. We’ve got three businesses there, Power Conversion is but one, and call that roughly $1 billion P&L, where they have really grabbed the organization firmly and are driving costs out improvements, better quality, better delivery performance, smarter underwriting. In Power Conversion specifically, we saw a really nice uptick in just the as-sold margins in that business. I give Russell Stokes, who’s jumped in not only looking after Power portfolio, but Power Conversion specifically as CEO, a lot of credit for the progress that they’re making. I think, we do think Power again will be better as a segment next year from a cash perspective, but still not positive.

Markus Mittermaier

Analyst

And then, one quick follow-up just for Jamie. You already alluded to the AD&As within aviation. I think, if I remember this right, the tailwind for ‘19 was about $800 million. Would you expect that this reverses completely in 2020 or that’s spread out over maybe more than a year?

Jamie Miller

Analyst

So, I mentioned on the third quarter call $800 million of favorability roughly that we had expected in 2019. When we print the numbers, it was actually $500 million. So, we did see some catch-up there, more than we expected in the fourth quarter. And we do expect that to reverse fully in 2020 as a headwind.

Operator

Operator

From Morgan Stanley, we have Josh Pokrzywinski.

Josh Pokrzywinski

Analyst

Just, I guess first question. Larry, you mentioned on -- within the $4 billion -- or $2 billion to $4 billion, the Aviation is kind of the biggest source of volatility or spread within that. I guess, how much of that volatility would you attribute to just timing around the MAX? So, maybe the cumulative number over the next couple of years, doesn’t move around as much but what you’re actually able to capture in 2020 is maybe a bit more volatile?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Yes. I think that’s well said, Josh. We don’t want to get ahead of the folks at Boeing, who I know are out here shortly. But the first order of business here in 2020 is a safe return to service. Neither Boeing, nor GE is going to dictate that schedule that the FAA will. So, again, given the build profile, the return to service date, the deliveries thereafter, there are a lot of moving pieces here. And I think we just want to embrace that reality, share with you what we know, and acknowledge that even though we’re putting out a range, we could be in a number of different places within it, depending on how this plays out over time. But going forward, I think, we have real conviction in the LEAP engine. Clearly, Boeing is one of two major customers for that engine. And I think going forward that should be a very healthy relationship and a very strong program for us. How that plays out ‘21 and into the future, we’ll see. Again, we’ll refer to our colleagues at Boeing, our customer at Boeing. But at this point, feel like we’re very much on the right track.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

And, Josh, I would just add to that that when you think about some of the factors Larry mentioned earlier, whether it’s unabsorbed overhead or the mix of installs and spares, particularly spares, but also even the timing of the return of the $1.4 billion impact we felt in 2019. As this is now a mid-year reentry into service, you should expect that we’ll feel more headwinds in the first half and more tailwinds in the second half as production rates really normalize. So, maybe that’s the other factor to think about.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Yes. But again, Josh, I want to be clear. I think, we just have a lot of respect for what’s happening at Boeing today under Dave’s leadership, right? Clearly, he’ll put safety first, real respect for the primacy of the FAA. Pulling the end on as they did a stop to the line takes a lot of guts. I respect that. I think the focus here couldn’t be clear, right. Recertification, then a return to service, delivering the inventory, then ultimately new production. It is complicated, but I think we see a significant alignment at Boeing and certainly in partnership with us and others in the supply chain. So, it is clearly an unfortunate tragedy that occurred, two tragedies to be specific. But I think going forward, we’ll all hopefully take the lessons here and build a better, stronger industry.

Josh Pokrzywinski

Analyst

Understood, appreciate that. And then, just quick follow-up on the PTC extension that got announced in December. Does that change the shape of the cash profile over the next year or two at all or still kind of where we would have been otherwise?

Jamie Miller

Analyst

I think, it’s a little hard to say. Certainly, we still expect the same level of high PTC deliveries in the U.S. in 2020, which will be a progress collection drag for us as that liquidates. But the PTC extension should help in terms of incremental new orders and some mitigating progress collections there on the inbound. So, we’ll have to see a little bit how that market plays out, but we do expect some goodness there.

Operator

Operator

From Vertical Research, Jeff Sprague.

Jeff Sprague

Analyst

Just a couple items. First, back to the MAX. Larry, not to parse words, but you said your shipments to Boeing will be cut roughly in half. I wonder if you’re taking your production down that much. There’s been commentary from Arconic and others that it’s very difficult to mess with these engine production rates. And then secondly on that, returns to service relative to kind of production could be kind of two different items also, given the need to induct what’s in backlog, et cetera. So, if you could just clarify your thinking on both of those, I’d appreciate it.

Larry Culp

Analyst

You bet, Jeff. I think, what we’re going to do is, and we’re in the process of doing is bringing our production levels down, mindful of what’s happening at Boeing. But, we’re not bringing that to zero. We very much, if you will, need to keep the lines wet here as we prepare not only for the return to service, but the subsequent ramp. And that’s a function of how we’re going to manage our own teams and in turn suppliers, like Arconic, PCC and the rest. I know there was a comment on somebody’s call relative to this dynamic that we were going to be building more spare engines. That is indeed not the case, just to make sure we’re all on the same page. We will probably build ahead a little bit as we go through the year to be prepared for whatever ramp late this year, early next year awaits us. We want to make sure we are there in lockstep with Boeing. But, we do expect our spare engine deliveries with the 1B to come down this year, just as folks see this pause around the return to service schedule.

Jeff Sprague

Analyst

And just unrelated, but this big JV order with Baker, did that come with the significant deposits in the quarter, and how does that impact the Aviation cash flow, if at all?

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Is did not? There was no progress on that in the quarter.

Jeff Sprague

Analyst

Thank you.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

From Barclays, we have Julian Mitchell. Please go ahead.

Julian Mitchell

Analyst

Hi. And maybe a question on Capital for a change. So, Jamie, I heard your comments around the leverage level likely rising through this year. You had the $2.5 billion capital infusion in Q4. What are you thinking about further infusions from Industrial to Capital in 2020? And also, any framing you can give the commentary around lower Capital earnings this year? Thank you.

Jamie Miller

Analyst

Yes. So, in line with what we said before, we do still expect to have GE to GE Capital parent support in 2020, though it will be significantly lower than it was in 2019. Think about it as roughly in line with the insurance statutory funding. We look at a lot of different elements in our economic capital framework based on the risk profile of what we see in our businesses and what’s required to be held at our statutory insurance companies. So, we do still expect something there. And then, with respect to Capital earnings, the biggest couple of things to think about on 2020 are we’ll -- we just have a smaller asset base. So, we’ll have lower earnings off of a smaller asset base. And then secondly, 2019 benefited from asset sale gains, which as we’ve concluded largely, our asset sale program, those just won’t repeat as we get into 2020. But, as I mentioned before, we still expect Capital to be breakeven, by the time we hit 2021.

Operator

Operator

From Melius Research, we have Scott Davis. Please go ahead.

Scott Davis

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Good morning.

Scott Davis

Analyst

I’ll echo prior comments. Jamie, best of luck to you. I’m sure, we’ll see you hopefully down the road.

Larry Culp

Analyst

Thank you.

Scott Davis

Analyst

In any event, one of the questions I wanted to ask Larry is just that is there somewhat of a potential positive impact, longer term on your LEAP production lines and just the slowdown allowing you time to lean things out, maybe upgrade tooling, maybe just take another look at processes and just figure out how to get that -- get down the cost curve faster. Is that something real or not?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Scott, I would submit that it is very real. The team, I think, made real progress in that regard, coming down the cost curve in 2019. But, a slower pace here will help us not only tend to some delinquencies that we have elsewhere, past dues that we have elsewhere across Aviation, but I think, will also allow us to drive more and better lean principles into all of our production operations, LEAP and elsewhere. But, I think, more broadly, Scott, what we’re most pleased by is again, the clarity of the focus. Safety first, recertification in concert with the FAA, a safe return to service, delivery of the inventories and then we’ll ramp at a slower, lower rate. Just having that clarity goes a long way to help us best serve Boeing and our airline customers. Little bit of pause here helps, but just that clarity goes a long ways we think about the next couple of years and all that we can and should do with LEAP.

Operator

Operator

From Gordon Haskett, we have John Inch. Please go ahead.

John Inch

Analyst

You guys run all these numbers. So, I’m going to ask, if the MAX has never been grounded, would your $2.3 billion of free cash flow have been $3.7 billion instead? And if the MAX have been producing and flying normally since Jan 1, ‘20, what would your $2 billion to $4 billion of 2020 Industrial guidance? What do you think that would have been in terms of the range?

Jamie Miller

Analyst

So, 2019, the 1.4 that we’ve talked about before is the V [ph] to our original expectations. So yes, that would have been higher.

Larry Culp

Analyst

I think, with respect to 2020, John, given all the moving pieces we’ve talked about a couple of times here during Q&A, we would probably not want to speculate on what might have been. I think, Jamie gives you a pretty good jumping off point, right? Just taking the 2.3 that we printed, the 1.4 that was held off and then the growth that we would have seen there, was there a deduct [ph] there relative to maybe an offset and service very, very hard to tell. But I think, if you just step back from the MAX, if you look at aviation for 2020, again, I think that the outlook there’s probably flat to up from a free cash perspective, mindful of all the moving pieces here, in and around that. So, again, a strong franchise, a number of other non-MAX-related efforts with real traction delivering real results. We’ll deal with MAX as it comes, but long-term, clearly this is going to be our strongest cash generating business across the portfolio.

Steve Winoker

Analyst

Brandon, we’re past the hour. Can we just take one more question, please?

Operator

Operator

Yes. Our last question is from Citi, we have Andrew Kaplowitz. Please go ahead.

Andrew Kaplowitz

Analyst

So, Larry, the Healthcare Day in December, you suggested that Healthcare revenue in Q4 to be flat to slightly down, and you came in just about flat. Have you seen any positive inflection in Healthcare Systems, either in the U.S. or some of the delays you were seeing under in China with the new leadership you have there and as trade issues began to die down? And how does the coronavirus complicate the outlook if at all for your China Healthcare Systems business in 2020?

Larry Culp

Analyst

Andy, I would say that it’s probably too early to point to anything in these numbers today within Healthcare that suggests Yihao in China and Everett here in the States have had positive impact yet. But, in terms of everything I have seen, if you will, behind the curtain, the work they're doing to retool their teams, the commercial intensity and discipline they're bringing, I am really optimistic that the commercial execution that has caused us to underperform on a relative basis in 2019 is on its way to being remedied. And we should see improvement as we go through the course of the year. I was with the European team just last week in France, that's a strong team as well, in many respects a more challenging market. But, we need to deliver on that, not just talk about it. With respect to corona -- the coronavirus, obviously we're disheartened and sorry that it's happening. It's a tragedy in its own right. Our priority is on safety clearly of our team really across GE. As you might imagine, our Healthcare team is really in the smack in the middle of this in Wuhan and elsewhere, servicing our equipment, certainly prioritizing new equipment deliveries, particularly to the Wuhan hospitals. We've made a significant donation of patient monitors and ultrasound equipment to help the care providers there. So, there is a lot going on. And fortunately, we can be part of the solution there in China, but itself a real tragedy.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Winoker, I’ll turn it back to you for closing remarks.

Steve Winoker

Analyst

Thanks, everybody. I appreciate you taking the time. I know it’s a busy earnings day, and look forward to following up afterwards. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.