Jeffrey Bornstein
Analyst · Barclays
Thanks, Jeff. As Jeff said, we had a strong quarter on orders, revenues and margins. However, our industrial CFOA was at $1.6 billion usage of cash, about $1 billion below our expectations. We expect to see most of this come back over the remainder of the year, and we see no change for our outlook for the year of $12 billion to $14 billion of industrial CFOA. Walking the left side of the page. Industrial net income plus depreciation in the quarter was $1.5 billion. Working capital was a use of $1.3 billion. This was about $700 million higher usage than our expectation. The miss was mainly driven by power and renewables, partially offset by better performance in our Healthcare business. Receivables was a benefit of $200 million, about $400 million less than our plan. Operationally, we've seen improvement in collections. However, we didn't collect on a number of accounts in the quarter that we expected to. In Aviation, which historically has not had issues with past dues, we missed by about $200 million on 5 customer accounts, which will clear in the second quarter with no issue. In Power, we didn't collect on several delinquent accounts in top regions around the world, but we expect to collect these throughout the rest of the year, including in the second quarter. Inventory was a use of $800 million, about $100 million worse than we expected. Most of the businesses were right on the plan. The miss was driven by softness in the U.S. Healthcare market, particularly around ultrasound and LCS. But we expect to work off this inventory over the remainder of the year. Payables were a use of $400 million, roughly as we expected. This was driven by payments of fourth quarter purchases that were significantly higher than the new volume added in the first quarter. And we see this dynamic mostly every year in the first quarter. Progress collections was a use of $300 million. This is primarily driven by 2 things. First, it was the impact of renewables from shipping equipment in the first quarter following the buildup of progress collections from safe harbor wind turbines in fourth quarter. Secondly, we had several large orders in the quarter that did not reach financial closure. This includes large orders in Energy Connections in Iraq, a power deal in Algeria and a big transportation transaction in Angola. We expect these deals to close in the second and third quarter. Contract assets were a use of $1.9 billion. This was $300 million worse than expected. Of the $1.9 billion, $500 million was from our long-term equipment contract, where the timing of our $1 billion revenue recognition milestones differ. This will catch up throughout the year as we execute against the contract. The remaining $1.4 billion is our long-term service agreements. There were 2 pieces to this. $600 million is related to service contracts where we've incurred cost and booked the revenue, but haven't yet billed the customer. We expect this to partly come back over the year as we see higher asset utilization in Power and Aviation. And we've seen these similar trends in the prior years. The other $800 million are contract adjustments driven by better cost performance in park light, primarily driven by Power And Aviation. Versus expectations, the $300 million of lower cash on contract assets is driven by $200 million of long-term equipment contracts that we expect to come back throughout the year, and the $100 million from services contract adjustments I just walked through, which will come back over the remaining life of those contracts as we build the utilization. In total, we're about $1 billion off our first quarter plan, but we'll recover the vast majority over the second to the fourth quarter. In the first half of 2016, we delivered $400 million of CFOA. For 2017, we expect significantly stronger cash performance in the second quarter with sequential improvement throughout the year. Our total year plan is $12 billion to $14 billion. That's driven by an increase in net income plus depreciation. And we expect to see a benefit from working capital similar to last year's benefit. Contract assets will be similar impact as 2016. And other cash flows will be lower cash usage this year, largely driven by the absence of onetime [indiscernible] payment in 2016. So with that, I'll move on to consolidated results. Revenues were $27.7 billion, down 1% in the quarter. Industrial revenues were flat at $25 billion. As you can see on the right side of the page, the industrial segments were up 1% on a reported basis. Organically, industrial segment revenue was up 7%, affected by the Appliance disposition. Industrial operating plus vertical EPS was $0.21, flat with prior year. Excluding gains in restructuring, which was a $0.03 headwind versus the first quarter of last year, industrial operating verticals EPS was up 12%. Operating EPS was $0.14 in the quarter, up from $0.06 in the first quarter of last year. This incorporates other continuing GE Capital activity, including excess debt headquarter runoff costs that I'll cover separately on the capital page. Continuing EPS of $0.10 includes the impact of nonoperating pension. And net EPS of $0.07 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was a negative $0.03 in the quarter, driven by GE Capital exits that we executed in the quarter. The GE tax rate was 15%, in line with our total year mid-teens guidance. The GE Capital tax rate was favorable, reflecting a tax benefit on a pretax continuing loss. On the right side of the segment results, as I mentioned, Industrial segment revenues were up 1% on a reported basis and up 7% organically. 6 of the 7 businesses were positive organically with Power and Renewables up double digits. Industrial segment op profit was up 9%. And Industrial up profit, which includes corporate operating cost, was up 11%. On the bottom of the page, as I mentioned earlier, industrial operating income plus vertical EPS was $0.21, up 12%, excluding gains in restructuring with industrial operating EPS up 15% on the same basis. Included in the $0.21 was $0.08 of uncovered restructuring that I'll go through on the next page. So next on Industrial and other items in the quarter. As I said, we had $0.08 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that we're taken at corporate. Charges were $1 billion on a pretax basis with more than $300 million of Alstom synergy investments primarily related to power in Europe. We also made significant investments in corporate, Oil & Gas, Energy Connections & Lighting and Healthcare on the quarter. Restructuring charges totaled about $800 million, and BD charges were approximately $200 million related to Baker Hughes, the water disposition, the Industrial Solutions disposition and the digital acquisition. There were no gains in the quarter. For the year, we expect about $0.25 of restructuring to offset by $0.25 of gains from water and Industrial Solutions dispositions. We are targeting a third quarter close for the water transaction and a fourth quarter close for the Industrial Solutions transaction. For the second quarter, we expect to do about $0.07 of restructuring with no offsetting gains. Next, I'll cover the segments. I'll start with the Power businesses. Power orders of $6.1 billion were up 8%, with equipment higher by 25% and services flat. Equipment growth of 25% was driven by Gas Power Systems up 12% and steam power systems up almost 100%. Gas Power Systems was driven by higher arrow, up 20 units, and 10 more HRSGs versus last year. Gas turbine orders were down 13 units, 12 versus 25. We had orders for 2H units, including our first H in China. We have 30H units in backlog and expect to ship 23 Hs in 2017. Steam power systems recorded orders totaling $591 million, up almost 100%, primarily driven by 2 projects for which the business will provide coal-fired turbine islands. These orders were taken by an existing JV within Alstom, which we took majority control of in the quarter. Service orders were flat. Total orders for upgrades were up 34%, but the AGPs were down 5 units, 20 versus 25 a year ago. Offsetting upgrade growth was lower transactional services in Europe and the Middle East and lower new unit installation volume. Revenues of $6.1 billion were higher by 17%, with equipment revenue growing 59% and services revenue flat. Equipment revenue growth was driven by higher deliveries of gas turbines, HRSG and arrow units. We shipped 20 gas turbines versus 13 a year ago. In addition, we shipped 24 HRSGs versus 1 and 11 arrow units versus 5 compared with last year. H shipments were essentially flat at 4 units. Service revenues were flat despite strong upgrade regrowth, up 26%, including lower AGPs of 21 versus 27. Upgrade growth was offset by lower boilers service volume in North America and a fewer major outages in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Power earned just under $800 million operating profit, up 39%. Performance was principally driven by cost productivity and equipment volume, offset partly by mix of equipment versus service. Gas Power Systems and steam-powered systems drove most of the improvement in profitability. Power had a good quarter, driving both equipment orders and equipment profitability. The business is intensely focused on structural cost and delivering $500 million of cost out for the year. Power had a very strong organic growth in the quarter on higher arrow turbines and higher gas turbine shipments, driving organic growth up 18%. Our view for the year of mid-single-digit order book unit growth has not changed. Power is on track for 100 to 105 gas turbines in 2017 and expect to deliver the upgrade growth, including 155 to 165 AGPs. No change to the outlook that the business provided in the March Investor Meeting. On Renewables, the business had a solid quarter. Orders of $2.1 billion grew 8%, with onshore wind higher by 4% and hydro orders up 39%. Onshore wind orders were up on $167 million of repower commitments versus none last year. The strength in repower was partially offset by lower wind turbine orders, down 8%. We took orders for 589 units versus 716 units last year, down 18%, but the megawatts for the units order grew by 3%. The lower unit cost was driven by the U.S., which down 61% after a very strong fourth quarter, partially offset by a very strong international growth, up almost double. The wind market is very competitive with pressure on price, both in U.S. and globally. Hydro secured a few large equipment orders in Turkey and Nigeria for 8 Francis turbines. Backlog grew 8% year-over-year to $13.4 billion. Renewables revenue of $2 billion grew 22%, driven by onshore wind up 11% and hydro up 2x. Onshore wind growth was largely driven by repowering deliveries. Wind turbine shipments were down 15%, 567 turbines versus 668 a year ago. However, the megawatts that we shipped were essentially flat on the larger turbines. Operating profit grew 29% in the quarter, driven by cost-out actions on the 2-megawatt NPI, positive value gap and repowering for volume, partially offset by higher NPI spend on the new 3-megawatt turbine. Margins expanded 20 basis points in the quarter. The business made good progress on the 2.x megawatt NPI unit cost, but will require additional cost actions given the competitiveness in the market. We are early in the learning curve and on the cost-out processes on the 3-megawatt NPI. We closed the LM acquisition this week, and the vertical integration will enhance the business ability to drive cost performance and growth. In Aviation, before I discuss the first quarter results for the business, I want to make you aware of a change we've made to how we report our aviation spares rate. Historically, we provided an all-in spares rate that included external shipments of spares, spares using time and material shop visits and spares consumed in shop visits for our engines under long-term service agreements. Going forward, our spares rate will only include externally shipped spares and spares used in time and material shop visits. Over the past several years, the strong growth in our long-term services agreements and the associated shop visits has driven the percentage of spares used in LTSA to be a much greater proportion of the historical order and sales rate. These spares are also part of the LTSA billing and are already accounted for in revenues. We believe the new spares rate provides investors with more visibility to transactional market dynamics. Consumption of spares in long-term service agreements can be impacted by customer fleet management, optimization shop visits over the life of the contract over various other reasons. Starting with the first quarter of '17, we will report only a ship rate for spares on this new basis as the orders and shipments are virtually the same. This change does not impact any reported financial operation. Historical information for spares rate on the new basis, as well as the old mapping, are included in the supplemental presentation material. Moving to Aviation's first quarter performance. The business continues to execute well on a strong market. Global revenue passenger kilometers grew 7% year-to-date February, with strength in both domestic and international routes. Air freight volumes increased 7.2% until February. Orders in the quarter were $7.4 billion with equipment up 5%. Commercial engine orders were up 3% on higher LEAP and GEnx, partially offset by lower GE90 and CF6 orders. $1.7 billion of new commercial engine orders included $932 million for LEAP, $206 million for CF34, $138 million for GE90 and $166 million of GEnx orders. CFM orders were also up 13% to $186 million. Military equipment orders of $169 million were down 46%, driven by no repeat of a large Black Hawk T700 armory order from last year. Service orders grew 17%. Commercial service orders were higher by 18% with CSA growth of 20% and the spares ADOR of $21.7 million a day was up 25% on the new basis. Military service orders were up 40% at $610 million on increased spare parts. Backlog finished the quarter at $158 billion, up 3%. The equipment backlog of $33 billion, down 5%, and service backlog of $125 billion ended up 5%. Revenues grew 9% in the quarter to $6.8 billion. Equipment revenues were down 2%, driven by military down 47% on lower shipments, partially offset by commercial growth of 12%. Commercial engine deliveries were down 7%. However, revenue was up driven by increased mix to higher-value GEnx and LEAP engines. Service revenues were up 17%, driven by commercial spares rate of $21.7 million a day, up 25%. Again, the same as the [indiscernible] order rate. Op profit in the quarter totaled $1.7 billion, up 10%, primarily driven by favorable price, volume and cost productivity, partly offset by a negative impact of 81 LEAP shipments versus 0 last year. Margins expanded 50 basis points in the quarter. Demand for the LEAP engine continues to be strong with over $900 million of orders booked in the quarter. The reliability and performance of spec of the 41 aircraft line with LEAP today has been excellent. The business is generating strong productivity to offset the negative mix impact of LEAP and is on track to report 2017 margin rates about flat with last year on continuing cost on programs. We will continue to ramp production to an expected 450 to 500 LEAP shipments for the year. The Oil & Gas environment has been improving led by increased activity in the North American onshore market. Rig count was up 70% versus prior year and up 25% from the fourth quarter of last year and has increased sequentially each of the last 3 quarters. External forecast continues to be slightly more positive on 2017 upstream spending, particularly among independents. The timing of recovery will vary by segment, and a large degree of uncertainty remains. Crude inventory remained at a 5-year highs, and markets are closely watching OPEC output work compliance. Offshore activity remains weak. Before I get into the dynamics of the quarter, just one item regarding Oil & Gas subsegment reporting. We combined the turbomachinery and downstream technology businesses, so I'll talk to the performance of those businesses on a combined basis. Orders for Oil & Gas of $2.6 billion were higher by 7% with equipment orders growing 30%. Every segment saw higher equipment orders. Turbomachinery and downstream grew 33%, surface up 10% and subsea up 52%. The equipment orders performance is a positive sign that growth is off a very low base. Service orders were down 2%, but flat organically. Turbomachinery and downstream was down 2%, digital solutions was down 3%, surface down 8% and subsea down 18%. Backlog ended the quarter at $20.4 billion, down 10% versus last year. Equipment backlog was down 32%, but service backlog actually grew 4%. Revenues in the quarter of $3 billion were down 9%. Equipment revenues were down 20% driven by subsea, down 29%, turbomachinery and downstream down 19% and surface down 2%. Service revenues were flat with turbomachinery and downstream up 13% and digital solutions up 1%, offset by subsea down 36% and surface down 14%. Operating profit of $207 million was lower by 33%, primarily driven by lower price and volume, partially offset by cost-out. The first half of '17 remains very challenging for the business. Despite positive equipment orders performance this quarter, our longer cycle equipment businesses in turbomachinery, downstream and subsea will lag the recovery on onshore. The team is focused on capturing growth opportunities and rebuilding its backlog. We continue to expect increased activity in our surface, digital solutions and transactional service businesses as we move into the second half of the year. The Baker Hughes deal remains on track to close midyear. We filed the draft S-4 with the SEC and continue to work with global regulators. Both the GE Oil & Gas and Baker Hughes team -- integration teams are making great progress toward the closing. Next up is Healthcare. Our Healthcare business had a solid quarter. Orders grew 7% versus last year and were up 8% on an organic basis. Geographically, organic orders grew 2% in the U.S., 5% in Europe and 21% in emerging markets. Emerging market growth was led by China, up 28%; the Middle East up 16%; and Latin America up 14%. On a product line basis, Healthcare Systems orders grew 5%, 6% organically, driven by growth in ultrasound up 10%, and imaging products up 12% with broad-based growth in MR and CT as well as mammo on successful NPI launches. Growth in HCS and ultrasound was partially offset by Life Care Solutions, which was down 8%, primarily driven by the U.S. general market uncertainty around reform. Life Science grew orders 15%, led by bioprocess up 25% and core imaging up 8%. Bioprocess growth was driven by an order for our QBO product in the quarter. Revenues in the quarter grew 3%, both on a reported and organic basis. Healthcare Systems revenues were higher by 3% versus last year, and Life Sciences revenue grew by 5%. Operating profit of $643 million was up 2% reported, but higher by 6% organically, driven by volume and productivity, partially offset by negative price and program and investments. FX was a $32 million profit drag in the quarter. Margins contracted 10 basis points on a reported basis, but were up 50 basis points, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. The business continues to execute well on new product introductions and driving cost productivity. Healthcare is targeting further product cost-out in line with the 2016 performance they delivered. They are focused on driving more competitors and sourcing, increasing the number of building factories and over 300 cost-out engineers dedicated to product competitiveness. Despite some uncertainty in the shorter cycle, lower ticket segment of the U.S. market around reforms, we believe the broad healthcare market supports our view of low to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth for the year. Next is transportation. Domestic market dynamics were slightly more positive, building on the modest improvement we saw in the fourth quarter. North American carload volume was up 4.4% in the quarter, driven by 2.2% growth in the intermodal carload space and 6.6% growth in commodity carload. Commodity carload growth was primarily driven by coal, which was up 15%, and agriculture higher by 4%. Petroleum continued its weakness, down 6%. In addition, GE parked locos were down 24% from last year and down 11% from year-end. Although these signs of improvement are important, they're off a weak base and, as of yet, have not signaled a consistent trend. Transportation orders for the quarter totaled $1.1 billion, up 70%. Equipment orders of $526 million were higher by 500%. We received orders for 37 locos and over 100 international kits versus no orders in the first quarter of last year. The 37 loco orders included 24 locos for North America. This is the first North American Tier 4 Class 1 order we've taken since 2014. Mining equipment orders were also higher. We received orders for 115 mining wheels versus 84 last year. Service orders of $582 million were up 3%. Backlog finished at $20 billion, down 5% versus last year, driven by equipment down 27%, partly offset by services up 4%. Revenues in the quarter were higher by 6%, with equipment up 15% and services down 1%. Locomotive deliveries were about flat year-over-year at 157 with a higher mix in international locos. North American locomotives were down 33%, while international locomotive shipments grew 159% driven by deliveries in Pakistan and South Africa. Op profit of $156 million was down 5% on unfavorable mix and higher digital investment, partially offset by cost productivity. No change to the outlook we shared with you in December. 2017 will be a challenging year with locomotive shipments likely down close to 50%, operating profit down double digits and pressure on margin run rates. The business continues to drive structural cost out as well as building their international backlog. Next on Energy Connections & Lighting. Orders for the segment totaled $2.6 billion, which were down 2%. Energy Connection orders of $2.4 billion were down 12%, driven by Power Conversion down 36% and Grid down 8%, partially offset by Industrial Solutions, which grew 11% in the quarter. Power Conversion performance was driven by continued pressure in Oil & Gas and no repeat of a large inverter order in the first quarter of last year. Grid's first quarter performance was impacted by orders delays in the Middle East that will close in the second quarter, specifically a large order in Iraq. Industrial Solutions, which was up 11%, outperformed versus the NEMA market, which was up an estimated 3% in the quarter. Our current platform had orders in the quarters totaling $243 million. Revenues for Energy Connections grew 1% reported and 4% organically. Grid grew 19%, partly offset by Industrial Solutions down 2% and Power Conversion down 26% organically. Current and lighting revenues were down 11% with current growing 3% and legacy business increasing by 22% as we exit markets and experience lower demand for older technology. Operating profit in the quarter of $28 million was substantially higher versus last year, driven by structural cost actions. Energy Connections earned $20 million, and current and lighting earned $8 million. No change in the 2017 outlook. We expect better execution from these businesses with double-digit profit growth for the year. We expect divestiture of Industrial Solutions to happen late in the year. Finally, I'll cover GE Capital. The verticals earned $535 million in the quarter, up 8% from the prior year, driven principally by lower impairments, higher tax benefits, partially offset by lower gain. GE cash, energy finance and industrial finance all had strong quarters, and overall portfolio quality remains stable. In the first quarter, the verticals funded $1.8 billion of unbooked volume and enabled $2.2 billion of industrial orders. Other continuing operations generated a $582 million loss in the quarter, driven by excess interest expense, restructuring cost related to portfolio transformation and headquarters operating cost. As I've said in the past, these costs will continue to come down as excess debt matures and we rightsize the organization. Versus the first quarter last year, other continuing cost are down $800 million, driven by these lower excess debt cost, non-repeat of cost associated with both the first quarter of '16 hybrid tender offer and the preferred equity exchange. In addition, we expect incremental tax benefits associated with the completion of the GE Capital restructuring towards the second half of the year. Discontinued operations generated $242 million loss, driven by exit plan-related items and operating cost. Overall, GE capital reported a net loss of $290 million. We ended the quarter with $167 billion of assets, including $43 billion of liquidity. Assets were down $16 billion from year-end. GE Capital closed on $7 billion of transactions in the quarter, including the sale of our French consumer finance platform and our Hyundai JV. In total, $198 billion has been actioned since April of 2015, $263 billion, including the spinoff of Synchrony. All major sales activity related to GE Capital exit plan is now complete. $8 billion of assets remaining will largely be runoff over the next 12 to 18 months. As a result of this, as of March 30, GE Capital's non-U.S. activities are no longer subject to consolidated supervision by the U.K.'s PRA. GE Capital paid $2 billion of dividends during the quarter and an additional $2 billion this week. We remain on track for $6 billion to $7 billion of dividends for the total year. Overall, the GE Capital team delivered a strong performance from the verticals, while executing on all aspects of our exit plan. And with that, I'll turn it back to Jeff.