Jeff Bornstein
Analyst · Barclays
Thanks, Jeff, I’ll start with the fourth quarter summary. Revenues were $33.9 billion, up 1% in the quarter. Industrial revenues including corporate were up 3% to $31.3 billion. You could see on the right side that Industrial segments were down 1% reported and down 1% organic. Alstom revenue up $2 billion in the quarter was offset by $1.3 billion of foreign exchange and dispositions of $700 million. Industrial operating plus verticals EPS was $0.52, up 27% and that’s driven by industrial up 27%, and verticals flat. The Operating EPS number of $0.31 includes other continuing GE Capital activity including headquarter run-off and other exit related items I’ll cover in more details shortly. $0.26 of continuing EPS includes the impact of non-operating pension, and net EPS $0.64 includes discontinued operations. The total disc ops impact was a positive $3.7 billion, driven by the $3.4 billion gain from Synchrony and earnings from the businesses held in sale. As Jeff said we generated $16.4 billion of CFOA for the year that’s up 8%. Industrial CFOA was $12.1 billion down 1%, but up 3% when you exclude Alstom CFOA and taxes associated with the disposition of signaling. The GE tax rate was 5% bringing the total year rate to 14%. The tax rate in the quarter was driven by the appliances transaction moving into 2016 tax benefits associated with integrating our existing service business with Alstom’s business in Switzerland, higher tax benefits principally on the signaling gain we had in the quarter and legislation making the U.S. research credit permitted. The reported GE capital tax rate in the quarter of 39% reflects a tax benefit on a pre-tax loss. The tax rate for the vertical businesses was a negative 13%, reflecting reduced the income at EFS and international tax benefits that will diminish as we complete the GE Capital exit plan. Going forward as we complete the exit, we expect GE Capital vertical tax rate to be approximately 10%. On the right side of the segment results as I mentioned industrial segment revenues were down 1% reported and down 1% organic with foreign exchange and dispositions offsetting Alstom. The foreign exchange was $1.3 billion drag on industrial segment revenue and $163 million impact on industrial segment op profit. The power renewable and energy management businesses were impacted by the Alstom acquisition and I’ll walk you through the impact on the next page. At the December outlook meeting we said we would present industrial results including corporate operating cost. On that basis industrial op profit for the quarter was down 6% reported, but up 3% organically on strong corporate cost performance. To give you context on the quarter organic revenue was down 1% was a little over $1 billion lower than we expected. This was driven by power, lower by about $350 million on expanded scope and BOP, aero and reciprocating engines that did not close in the quarter, about $400 million in renewables on low wind turbines, which I’ll cover more on shortly and $300 million of softness in oil and gas and $100 million of softness in convertible orders in our energy management business. Most of the $1 billion was timing and we expect it to convert in 2016. For the full year organic revenue was up 3%. What’s laid out on this page is the impact of Alstom on the power renewables and energy management businesses. You can see the reported op profit of the businesses in the first column. The impact of Alstom in the middle column and the op profit and the Vs excluding Alstom on the right. Power on a standalone basis would have been down 5%, renewables would have been down 54% and energy management would have been up 4%. The outsize impact of Alstom in energy management business is due to the JV structure of digital energy in the Alstom grid business. We contributed positive earnings from digital energy to Alstom’s business that had negative earnings. Remember this is a 50-50 JV and we consolidate 100% of the revenue, but record only 50% of the earnings. In the case of energy management the 17% organic V reflects the organic performance for the power conversion and industrial solutions business, which is how we will report organic for this segment going forward. The organic V including digital energy would have been plus 19%. In the quarter the EPS impact of Alstom was break even. With a pre-tax loss of $234 million in the segments and an additional $160 million of deal cost and accounting items at corporate offset by a positive tax benefit. Revenue was $2 billion and order were $2.6 billion. As we look to 2016 no change to the guidance we gave you of $0.05 of EPS from Alstom. Next I’ll do the earnings walk as we’ve been doing for the last number of quarters. So you understand the dynamics clearly and what’s going on in the earning. Starting with the first column on the left and working down, industrial operating net income was $4.6 billion and vertical income was $438 million for total industrial plus verticals operating earnings of $5.1 billion. On the other GE Capital line we incurred $2.1 billion of cost in the quarter. This was driven by restructuring charges, the preferred dividend payment, headquarter run off, operating expenses and excess interest cost. We also took an impairments of about $800 million related to the Homer City power plant asset, which I’ll cover more on the GE Capital page. As a result total operating earnings were $3 billion. Including non-operating pension cost continuing earnings were $2.6 billion. We had a $3.7 billion of income in discontinued operations principally related to the Synchrony gain. Adjusting for these items net earnings for the quarter were $6.3 billion. In the center and far right column you can see the associated EPS number and their variance versus prior year. On the next page industrial other items from the quarter. We had $0.04 of charges related to industrial restructuring and other items that we take in a corporate. Charges were $567 million on a pre-tax basis with $160 million of those charges related to the Alstom deal cost and accounting items. We also had a $1 billion of industrial gains in the quarter, which equated to $0.08 of EPS at the transactional tax rates. The pre-tax signaling gain was $622 million and the appliance breakup fee was $175 million. Additionally, we sold our embedded controls business in energy management and our clarient business in healthcare. On the bottom of the page you can see the total year restructuring gains profile. We incurred restructuring charges of $0.12 and had gains of $0.11 for a net charge of a penny for the year. This was $0.02 better than we communicated in December driven by about a penny of lower restructuring primarily Alstom related and slightly higher gains driven by predominantly tax at the transaction level. For 2016, we expect gains in restructuring to largely offset for the year however there will be a quarterly variability in the timing. As Jeff mentioned, we signed the appliances transaction, which we expect to contribute about $0.20 of gain mid-year this year. That combined with some smaller transactions should yield gains of about $0.25 in 2016. We will use this opportunity to continue to invest in improving the industrial margins and cost. This will benefit us not only in 2016, but will position us well for 2017 and 2018. Now I’ll go through the segments starting with the power business. With the combination of Alstom into the power segment, we have reorganized some of the sub-businesses so I’ll take a minute to walk through these changes. First, the thermal business was renamed gas power systems. This business includes gas turbines and steam and generators for combined cycle applications and additionally we moved the equipment side of our aero turbines business to gas power systems. Second, the power services business includes our PGS business and services related to aero turbines. The distributed power business now includes just our reciprocating engines and the service businesses for Jenbacher [ph] and Walker Shaw. Additionally, as you know we have a standalone steam business that we acquired from Alstom. Moving to the financial results, orders in the quarter up $9.6 billion including $1 billion of Alstom orders grew 40%. Excluding Alstom, orders were $8.6 billion up 25% with equipment orders up 46% and services up 8%. Within equipment orders, gas power systems was higher by 60% ex-Alstom. The increase was driven by orders for 55 gas turbines versus 41 last year and expanded scope including BOP for a large Saudi 7 AP order. In the fourth quarter we took new orders for 12 HA turbines versus two last year. Five units in the U.S., four in Pakistan and three in Asia. Our HA backlog now totals 33 with an additional 49 technical selections for a total of 82 units. Aero turbine orders were down 14% on 43 units versus 50 last year and distributed power engines were lower by 12% with weakness in Walker Shaw gas compression partly offset by strong orders in the Jenbacher. Equipment OPI was strong at 6.7% driven by HA turbine demand. Service orders excluding Alstom grew 8% on higher installations growth in multi-year contracts and strong upgrades. AGP sold 42 for the quarter versus 26 a year ago bringing a total year orders on AGPs to 119. Alstom orders as I mentioned totals $1 billion including two steam turbines and 6 HSRGs one in conjunction with GE orders. Ex-Alstom, equipment backlog ended at $8.3 billion up 15%, service backlog grew 4% to $53 billion. In total, power backlog ended the year at $62 billion ex-Alstom and $77 billion with Alstom. Core GE revenues were $6.2 billion down 10% and down 7% organically. Equipment revenues were down 25% driven by fewer gas turbine shipments, foreign exchange and lower balance of plant. In the quarter, the business shipped 28 gas turbines versus 44 a year ago. Total year shipments were 107 units, lower units and lower BOP were driven by no repeat of the large Algerian deal in the fourth quarter of last year. Service revenues were up 1% driven by power services up 8%. AGPs with 35 in the quarter versus 24 a year ago, bringing total shipments to 104 for the year. Strength in power service was partly offset by lower distributed power service down 15%. Alstom revenues in the quarter totaled $917 million with $255 million from equipment and $662 million from services. GE core operating profit was $1.7 billion down 5%. The decrease was driven by lower volume and partially offset by positive value gap. Margins improved 140 basis points in the quarter. Alstom operating profit was a loss of $80 million, reflecting operations, deal cost and accounting adjustments. Given the scale of the Alstom consolidation on our first close things went reasonably well. The core business came in a little lower on revenue than expected driven by the timing of BOP and aero engine shipments. However orders were better than expected on strong demand for both H&F products particularly in Saudi and Pakistan. 2016 is a big execution year with the Alstom integration shipping approximately 24 HA turbines and executing on our product cost strategy. In total, we expect to ship 110 gas turbines and 125 AGPs with 60% to 65% of these units shipping in the second half of the year in 2016. Next I’ll cover renewable, total renewable orders were $2.5 billion in the quarter up 1%. Excluding Alstom, orders were $2 billion down 18% and down 10% ex-foreign exchange. We took orders for 827 wind turbines versus 1,251 a year ago in the quarter. The decline was a result of lower U.S. orders partly driven by the strength in the fourth quarter of last year related to the PTC extension. This year the PTC extension includes a multi-year phase out. Orders were also impacted by the shift from the 1.x product line to the new 2.x and 3.x products that drive fewer units, but more megawatts. Additionally, we had three deals delayed to 2016 for a total of 240 turbines or above $550 million of orders. Orders outside the U.S. were up 19% ex-FX and down 2% reported with strength in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia. Backlog in the renewables’ core business ended at $7.1 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Also renewable orders were $469 million in the quarter with a large hydro win of $400 million in China at the Three Gorges project. Alstom added $5.3 billion of backlog to the renewables’ business. Renewables’ revenue for the fourth quarter totaled $1.9 billion lowered by 16% and down 8% ex-exchange. The Legacy GE business had revenue of $1.9 billion down 20% reported and down 12% ex-foreign exchange. Core unit shipments were 847 in the quarter versus 1,081 last year. This was lower than expected as two deals for 165 turbines pushed into 2016. Operating profit ex-Alstom was $125 million down 54%. The decline was attributable to lower volume of 234 units, negative mix from the new 2.x product as we come down the cost curve and foreign exchange. Alstom op profit was a loss of $69 million. In 2016, we expect to ship about 350 onshore turbines, including 250 of Alstom wind units. As Jeff discussed earlier 2016 organic revenues should be high single-digits to low double-digits depending on the mix of unit shipped. Core op profit should be flat to up slightly as the business focus on improving the cost curve for the new 2.0 and 3.0 megawatt product launches and delivering $100 million of Alstom cost synergies. Next on aviation, global passenger air travel continues to grow robustly up 6.7% November year-to-date both domestic and international markets are strong, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. Air freight volume grew 2.3% November year-to-date. Orders in the fourth quarter of $6.8 billion were down 16%, commercial engine orders were down 47% as expected. We booked $1.9 billion of engine orders including $100 million of GE90, $600 million of GenEx orders, $400 million of LEAP CFM orders and $500 million of CF6 orders. Commercial equipment backlog ended the year at $29.5 billion, up 11%. Military equipment orders of $353 million in the quarter were higher by two times on a large Navy F-414 order. Service orders were higher by 9% with strong commercial spares orders up 10% to $39 million a day and CSAs were up 24% in the quarter. Military services were down 20%. Services backlog ended the year at over $116 billion, up 15% versus last year. Revenues of $6.7 billion were up 5% with commercial equipment revenues down 5%. We shipped 59 GenEx units versus 77 last year driven by schedule. We have no delinquencies to borrowing. Military equipment revenue was down 1% and services revenue was up strongly at 18%, driven by commercial services up 24%. Operating profit grew 12% on strengthened services, positive value gap and good cost productivity. Operating margin rates improved basis points. The Aviation team delivered another solid execution year, for the year revenues grew 3%, operating profit grew 11% and margins expanded 160 basis points. Our share on each of our engine platforms is very strong and a LEAP launch remains on track for mid-year. We expect another solid year from David Joyce and the team at Aviation. Next is oil and gas. The segment continues to operate in a very difficult environment and we continue to be focused on being hyper competitive on new opportunities and very aggressive on the cost structure. For the fourth quarter orders of $3.3 billion were down 35% and down 28% organically. Equipment orders were down 52% or 44% organically. All segments had lower orders driven by delays in reduced CapEx spending with the exception of our downstream platform, which grew orders 51% reported and up 84% organically. For the other segments on a reported basis, subsea was down 49%, TMS was down 78% and surface was down 65%. Service orders were down 17% and down 13% organically. On a reported basis TMS was down 24%, surface was down 29%, subsea was down 35% and M&C was down 8%, partly offset by downstream which exclude service orders by 20%. Not included in orders, but included in backlog TMS signed four new long-term service agreements totaling $1.5 billion in the quarter. Total backlog at the ended the year at above $23 billion, which was down 9% versus last year and down 4% ex-exchange. Revenues in the quarter were down 16% reported and down 6% organic. Foreign exchange reduced revenues $437 million in the quarter, equipment revenues were down 21% reported and 12% organically. By business surface was down 49%, TMS down 18%, subsea down 15%. Organically TMS was down 8%, subsea was down 5%. Service revenues were down 9% and flat organically with M&C down 5% offset by TMS up 22% organically. Operating profit in the quarter was down 19% and down 7% organic. Foreign exchange in the quarter was a $93 million headwind. The business continued to deliver on cost reductions and inflation which partially offset the negative volume and price. Margin rates were down 70 basis points on an organic basis margins contracted 10 basis points. The business executed in early and aggressive cost-out program beginning in 2014 delivering $600 million of cost out during 2015. For the year revenue and op profit were down 5% and up 1% respectively and organic margin rates actually expanded 90 basis points. For 2016 our best view for revenues and op profit continues to be down 10% to 15%, most likely at the bottom end of that range given the outlook for the industry and our view of volume and price. Our base plan at December outlook call for $400 million of cost out in 2016 to get to the $1 billion run rate over 2015 and 2016. We are working another $400 million of additional cost out reductions to offset the likely lower volume of price pressure. We expect the first half to be tougher year-over-year versus the second half and [indiscernible] orders team have executed very well in 2015 and we expect the business will continue to outperform on a relative basis in 2016. Next up in healthcare, orders of $5.2 billion were down 4%, but up 1% organically. Geographically orders in the U.S. were down 1%, Europe was down 8% and up 4% ex-FX and the Middle East region was down 4% and up 5% ex-FX. China was down 6% reported and down 3% ex-FX. Tenders in China continue to improve slowly year-over-year tenders were flat after several quarters of contraction. In terms of business lines healthcare systems orders were down 6% and down 1% excluding exchange. The U.S. was down 2% driven by lower molecular imaging and X-Ray on tough comparisons offset partially by strong MR up 33% and ultrasound up 5% on new product upgrades. Europe was down 8% reported, but grew 5% ex-foreign exchange. Europe was up 5% ex-FX for the year and have seen six consecutive quarters of organic growth. China orders were down 11% reported and down 9% excluding exchange. Our current outlook for 2016 is for orders growth in China as government tenders begin to rebound. Life Sciences continued to performance very well. In the fourth quarter orders grew 2% up 8% ex-exchange. Within Life Science bioprocess grew 16% ex-FX was strengthening Korea, China and the U.S. Healthcare revenues were down 3% reported and up 3% ex-FX. Healthcare systems revenues were lower by 4%, reported and up 3% ex-FX and Life Sciences revenues grew 6% excluding exchange. Operating profit was lower versus the fourth quarter of last year by 4%, excluding exchange and lower by 8% reported. Volume growth and cost productivity were more than offset by price and higher growth investments. Margin rates contracted 100 basis points in the quarter. In 2016 we expect John in the healthcare business to improve operationally in terms of earnings and margin rates. Our outlook is for the Life Science business to continue to grow strongly and profitably and for HCS business to execute the digital transformation and aggressively reduced products and service cost. In transportation North American carloads were down 6.4% in the quarter driven by a very weak carloads in call down almost 20% and petroleum down 13%, intermodal volume was also down 1% in the quarter. For the year volume was down 2.2% driven by commodities with intermodal higher by 2%. Lower volume and operational improvements have improved velocity on the rails, on average 2.4 miles an hour that’s up 10% versus last year. For our business orders in the quarter were very strong up 66% to 3.2 billion, driven by equipment orders up 113%. We took our largest order ever of 1,000 locos in India and also secure node for 100 Tier 4s in the U.S. Service orders were down 6% at ex-signaling, on lower overhaul volume driven by increased park locos. Revenues were up 2% reported and up 11% ex-signaling. Equipment revenues were higher by 17%, 27% organically, principally driven by locomotives partly offset by services down 8% on lower overhauls. Op profit was higher in the quarter by 18% ex-signaling and up 8% reported. Increased loco volume, value gap and productivity drove earnings higher. Margins improved 100 basis points reported and 120 basis points organically. The transportation team delivered a tremendous year. Excluding the signaling sale they grew revenues 7%, operating profit 16% and improved margins 150 basis points. They launched and delivered 425 Tier 4 locomotives on time, on cost and the performance is significantly exceeded customer expectations. 2016 is going to be a more challenging year with softer demand in the U.S. and in the commodity markets. We shipped 985 locos in 2015 and expect to ship about 800 in 2016. The team is executing an aggressive cost plan to address the lower volume. We expect the business to be down mid-single digits on op profit in 2016. On energy management as I mentioned earlier describing results for energy management is complicated by the contribution of our digital energy business to the grid JV. For financial reporting purposes we report 100% of the grid JVs orders and revenues, but only report 50% of their earnings. Going forward we will report results on this basis, but all our organic calculations will include only industrial solutions and the power conversion business. Orders in the quarter were $2.6 billion up 15% reported, of the $2.6 billion $1.1 billion was from the grid business with Alstom contributing $716 million and digital energy business contributing $342 million. Digital energy orders were down 10% reported and down 8% organically. Power conversion orders were down 17% and down 11% organically, on no repeat of larger renewable orders in the fourth quarter of last year. For the total year power conversion orders were very strong up 19% organically. Industrial Solutions orders in the quarter were down 17% report and down 11% organically, driven by foreign exchange and dispositions. North America demand in the quarter was weak across all Industrial Solutions segments. Backlog for the quarter ended at $11.7 billion. Reported revenues of $2.4 billion were higher by 20%. Grid solutions revenue totaled $952 million inclusive of $393 million of digital energy revenue. Industrial Solutions revenues were down 8% and down 4% organically. Power conversion was down 6%, but up 9% organically. Reported op profit for the energy management segment was $33 million, which includes the effects of establishing the grid JV and Alstom’s results. Before the effects of Alstom, as I covered earlier, energy management earned $118 million of op profit up 4% driven by the productivity and the gain on sale in our media’s business partly offset by lower Industrial Solutions volume. The contribution of our digital energy business to grid JV combined with the Alstom grid operating results equaled the loss which we recorded at 50% or $5 million. As we announced last week and Jeff spoke about it earlier, we have an agreement to sell our appliance units to Haier, which we expect to close mid-year. Fourth quarter results for both Appliances & Lighting had revenue essentially flat. Appliance revenue was up slightly from last year and lightings saw a flat revenue and growth organically. LED growth in the quarter was 28%, operating profit for the segment was up 28% with very strong performance in appliances up 51% on strong cost performance and up 4% organically in lighting, but down 10% reported driven by foreign exchange. The appliance team had a strong year essentially doubling profits and expanding margins significantly. They’ve also done an outstanding job managing the business through this disposition process. Lastly, I’ll cover GE Capital. Our Verticals businesses earned $438 million this quarter, that’s up 7% from prior year driven by operations and higher tax benefits partially offset by lower gains. Portfolio quality remains stable and the aviation portfolio finished the quarter with zero delinquencies in only two AOGs. Working down the page, GE Capital corporate generated a $2 billion loss in the quarter principally driven by restructuring and other charges related to the GE Capital transformation. Preferred dividend payments, excess interest costs including the cost associated with the debt exchange we completed in October and headquarter’s operating cost. In the current quarter we took an impairment of approximately $800 million on our Homer City coal-fired power plant in the U.S. related to a decision to exit the investment overtime. This investment was not strategic to the verticals’ go forward business and this actually aligns this portfolio more closely to the GE store going forward. These charges within the framework of the $23 billion charge to effect the GE Capital transformation. Discontinued operations, which now includes the consumer segment generated earnings of $3.7 billion, primarily driven by a $3.4 billion gain associated with the Synchrony split off as well as the earnings and gains from discontinued operation. Overall, GE Capital reported $2.1 billion of earnings and we ended the quarter with $167 billion of E&I excluding liquidity. The verticals ended the quarter with $79 billion in the E&I excluding liquidity. Our liquidity levels remains very strong at $91 billion. Our Basel III Tier 1 common ratio was 14.5%, which is up 80 basis points from the third quarter after paying dividends of $3.9 billion during the quarter bringing our total dividends in 2015 to $4.3 billion. Assets sales remained ahead of plan and we ended the year with $157 billion of signed deals and $104 billion of deals closed. Overall, keeping that GE Capital team have executed ahead of schedule on all aspects versus the plan we share with you back in April. We expect to be largely complete by the end of 2016 and are on track to file for CP receipt [ph] in the first quarter of this year. And with that, I’ll turn it back Jeff.