Steven W. Streit
Analyst · Jefferies
Okay. Thank you, Chris, and welcome, everyone. With me today is our new Chief Financial Officer, Grace Wang. So here's the agenda for our call today. We'll provide a 2013 Q4 financial review and a full year wrap-up. We'll share some updates on our recent key business initiatives. We'll bring you up-to-date on how we're faring in the market in light of all the recent competitive activity, and we'll close out the call with our 2014 guidance followed by Q&A. So first, let's begin with the financial review. In Q4, Green Dot continued to perform well, achieving total non-GAAP revenues of $145 million, representing growth of 5% year-over-year in the quarter. As we previously forecast and highlighted for investors, our Q4 margins were heavily compressed as a result of the costs involved in the second half rollouts of the 27,000 new Green Dot retailers, the multiple new products at Walmart, the launch of new programs in the FSC channel and the expenses associated with the acquisition of the Walmart MoneyCard portfolio from GE Consumer Retail Bank. While we believe these are all great investments that provide meaningful growth opportunities and savings opportunities going forward, these investment-related expenses do have the impact of taking down normalized margins quite a bit in the effective periods. Looking at our full financial results for the year, as you can imagine, we're very, very pleased. We ended 2013 with non-GAAP revenue of $582 million, $2 million above the high end of our updated guidance range and $57 million better than the midpoint of our original guidance at the beginning of the year. Our blended adjusted EBITDA margin for the year was around 18%, inclusive of the second half investments, and a reported $103 million in adjusted EBITDA above the midpoint of our updated guidance range and $10 million better than the midpoint of our original 2013 guidance. That adjusted EBITDA translated to a non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.15. Our cash position grew again in Q4 as we generated an additional $121 million of net cash from operations for the full year, a 19% increase year-over-year. That brings our total cash balance to $622 million, of which $200 million is unencumbered. We continue to have no debt. So despite perhaps the most challenging year in our company's history, we're pleased to have delivered our 12th straight year of revenue growth since our first year of card sales back in 2001. In fact, in the 3.5 years since our IPO, Green Dot has grown the non-GAAP top line by 82%, our GDV by 117% and we added approximately $346 million in net cash generated from operations, all just in that 3.5 year period. Since our humble beginnings as a company that started at a small table in my bedroom in 1999, Green Dot has consistently delivered growth for our investors and growth remains our primary focus. Now, let's take a look at some of our key customer-driven performance metrics for Q4. Our active card base increased by 3% year-over-year, showing a return to active card growth. The number of customers receiving recurrent direct deposit to their Green Dot account grew again this quarter, up 7% year-over-year, and the number of cash reloads rose by 4% year-over-year. As a result of more accounts receiving recurrent direct deposits and the increase in cash loads, our GDV, or total dollars loaded to our products, also rose to a new Q4 record, $4.4 billion. Remember that in addition to all the competitive headwinds in the market, Green Dot's risk control has turned away around 2 million customers in 2013 who purchased or otherwise tried to use one of our products. So to grow these overall portfolio metrics in such a year is a positive indicator in our view and a testament to the resiliency and sustainability of our business model. So the summary here is that Green Dot is, once again, not only the clear leader in the prepaid industry, but also we believe the hands-down leader in attracting sticky, longer-term customers with both the largest active customer base and the largest reloading customer base in the prepaid industry. Now I'd like to let you know how we're progressing with some of our key growth initiatives. First, here's the latest on our entry into the Financial Service Center channel, also known as the check cashing store channel. We're pleased to let you know that we're making very good progress here towards our goal of being the leading provider of prepaid cards in the FSC industry. Since our last earnings call, around 90 days ago, Green Dot has signed distribution agreements with approximately 200 new check cashing stores in 11 states, including 140 stores in the Chicago area, representing around a 40% market share in Chicago, the nation's second largest check cashing market. We expect these new stores to be rolled out over the next 3 months or so. Now the latest on Walmart. Our new expanded category of segmented prepaid card products at Walmart is off to a very good start, and we're pleased with the metrics we're seeing thus far. Because this new portfolio of so many different products is only 90 days old, we're not prepared to draw firm conclusions on how the new assortment may ultimately perform since only time can provide enough incremental cohort data to forecast precisely. But it's fair to say that we believe this initiative will be a positive contributor in 2014. Looking at our non-Walmart business, the entry into 27,000 new retailers and check cashing stores is beginning to play out quite nicely. Early results of many of these new retailers are strong, and we believe that in the aggregate, this new distribution for our Green Dot branded products can provide both revenue growth and enhanced revenue diversification over time for our business. I think our strong results of these new channels and locations also provide further revenues as to the resiliency and appeal of the Green Dot brand and our products' overall customer value proposition. Now, the latest on GoBank, America's multi-award-winning mobile checking account from Green Dot Bank. As we look at the first 6 months since the public launch for GoBank, we have reason to be excited on a number of fronts. First, while we still have a long way to go in making GoBank a material earnings contributor to Green Dot, GoBank, as a product, is trending nicely towards profitability on a contribution basis. That's a very good sign this early into the product's life cycle and we believe exemplifies how we can use our bank and our large-scale operating infrastructure to efficiently roll out new and innovative products. As we drill deeper and look at the GoBank accounts received in recurring direct deposit, these customers are highly productive with higher revenue and better margins than even many of our most profitable prepaid accounts. So while we're still in the very early days with GoBank and the revenue base is still very small relative to the overall size of Green Dot, we continue to be optimistic about GoBank's long-term prospects. Now, here's the latest on the assumption of the legacy Walmart portfolio, moving from GE Consumer Retail Bank into Green Dot Bank. We plan to close on this transaction and electronically reassign the portfolio over to Green Dot Bank by the end of February. Once this is done, we will no longer be paying GE Consumer Retail Bank for bank issuing services. I also want to remind you that back in late 2012, we did a similar migration when we moved all of our legacy Green Dot portfolios from Synovus Bank over to Green Dot Bank. When you calculate the cost savings generated from issuing our own products from Green Dot Bank for both our Walmart and non-Walmart portfolios, the cost savings in 2014 will be around $10 million, as compared to what we would have otherwise paid to those third-party banks to issue our cards previously. We expect this efficiency to grow as our portfolios grow since the payments we made to third-party banks were based on a percentage of GDV. You may recall that we only paid around $15 million to acquire Bonneville Bancorp back in 2011. So in addition to all the strategic benefits of being the bank holding company and owning our own bank, we're pleased to be realizing this level of operating efficiency so soon after that transaction. Now let's talk about the competitive environment and how Green Dot is faring. The increasingly competitive landscape in the prepaid market is off in a central topic that investors raised as it relates to our longer-term prospects for sustainability and growth. We understand that the competitive landscape is an area of focus, and so we're always happy to provide color and context whenever and wherever we can. My belief is that inventing, scaling and leading a new and vibrant market segment like prepaid is a marathon and not a sprint and that we should all expect the market to remain competitive because large and growing vertical attracts lots of new competition. Some new competitors will find traction and others will fail. But we don't make money based on the success or failure of others. We only get paid on our own success. So at Green Dot, we're certainly aware of and respectful of all competition, but we also remain hyper-focused on our customers and the business strategy we have developed to profitably serve them. As our results in 2013 showed, we feel like we're on the right track. Now let me do my best to provide some color on the specific competitive questions we get most often. One of the central investor concerns about Green Dot's future opportunity is that big banks will attract a large number of our current and potential customers and critically harm our business or that other large players, like American Express, will use their brand, deep pockets and loss leader pricing to steal share from us and cause industry pricing to fall overall to unsustainable levels. So on the big bank front. First, for some years now, BB&T, U.S. Bank and numerous other national and regional banks have offered prepaid cards targeted to our same customer base, and those programs have now been around for some years without posing any demonstrable threat to Green Dot's business. But then, in 2012, Chase launched the largest and most robust foray into the consumer prepaid market of any big bank to date with the launch of the Chase Liquid prepaid card. The launch of Liquid in 2012 caused a lot of understandable investor concern because Liquid was and is a well-designed product that featured low fees and free reloads at all Chase branches. Plus, Liquid was backed up with a massive multimedia marketing campaign. Additionally, just about every Chase branch and Chase ATM machine nationwide featured Liquid advertising and Chase specially trained their branch personnel to sell the product to likely customers as they walked in. In other words, Chase and their Liquid product team did a world-class job in creating, marketing and promoting the product. So where is Liquid today? While Chase doesn't disclose business metrics for Liquid, based on our own research, it appears that Liquid is no longer being actively promoted in Chase branches nor in mass media. We also do not see Liquid show up in any material way in our own internal customer research. To be sure, Chase is an excellent bank with a very strong brand and a robust and ubiquitous branch network in most parts of the United States. But in the world of prepaid, Chase is no Green Dot. Next, let's look at the American Express Serve product sold alongside our Green Dot products in several retailers nationwide. American Express has done a tremendous job of getting the word out for their newly launched Serve product, and their marketing team should be commended for a first-class effort. From heavy in-store retail signage, big retail stand-alone displays, circular newspaper advertising, beautifully produced TV spots that you may have seen that ran during some of the highest rated network TV sports events in December and even offering consumers cash incentives to buy a Serve card, American Express has seemingly spared no expense. While Amex doesn't disclose detailed business metrics about Serve, based on our discussions with industry sources familiar with the Serve business unit, we believe American Express has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to date in an effort to gain traction in the prepaid market. Yet despite this massive investment level, and American Express' ongoing aggressive marketing of Serve's loss leader pricing, we're pleased to let you know that Green Dot continues to thrive. For example, in one large retailer where we have third-party sales data, Green Dot is outselling Serve by an 11:1 margin for the combined December and January to-date period. To be sure, American Express is a terrific company with a very strong brand and loyal base of financially well-heeled customers. When it comes to serving America's wealthiest customers with world-class charge cards and credit cards, American Express is tops. But when it comes to serving America's low and moderate income families with high-quality, low-cost prepaid cards, American Express is no Green Dot. Lastly, on this topic, as a follow-up to the competitive data we shared during our Investor Day back in November, we continue to see similar trends for all of Q4 where our nonexclusive retailers grew faster than our exclusive retailers. While we can't explain the direct cause of these results, we believe that competition may, in fact, be driving consumer interest and this consumer interest could be helping sales for us and perhaps others as well. So in summary, we take all competition, big and small, very seriously. And like many of you, we too have worried over the years that this competitor or that competitor could pose a serious threat to our business. As you recall, that's one of the main reasons we guided down in mid-2012. But as it turns out, we believe our first mover advantage, our strong brand name, our love and respect for our loyal customers and the sheer size and scale of Green Dot in the prepaid industry has together helped sustain us through these evolutionary times. Do we expect there to be lots of competition now and even more going forward? You bet. Do we believe that Green Dot will continue to be a long-term survivor and thriver? Absolutely. So now, let's talk about guidance. As we look to 2014 and beyond, we believe we have a very attractive market opportunity and we're confident we can reaccelerate growth driven by a well-thought out strategic plan with a particular focus on retaining and growing our customer relationships. But at the same time, we remain cautious about getting ahead of ourselves because many of our new growth initiatives are quite recent. They still require further investment and will take some time to fully harvest, so we generally prefer to be cautious as we build our own internal models and we would advise our investors and analysts to do the same as you build your own models. So, with that said, for 2014, Green Dot is forecasting full year non-GAAP total operating revenues to be between $640 million and $650 million, representing a growth range of 10% to 12% over 2013. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be between $114 million and $118 million, representing a growth range of 11% to 15% over 2013. Full year non-GAAP diluted EPS is forecasted to be between $1.22 and $1.28. I want to take a moment to thank the entire Green Dot team for their hard work and dedication, which allowed us to perform so well in 2013. I also now want to take the time to officially welcome Grace Wang as our new CFO. We're excited to have Grace on the team and believe her talent, drive and passion will be a big driver of value for all of us. And with that, I'll turn it over to Grace Wang to introduce herself and to say hello. Grace?