Scott Wagner
Analyst · Deepak Mathivanan with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open
Thanks Blake. There's three key financial points that I would like to cover with everyone today: First, we continue to deliver strong, consistent revenue growth with a really nice balance between customer and ARPU increases. As Blake said, our bookings grew 17% in constant currency in Q4 or 13% on a reported basis. Revenue also grew 17% in constant currency or 14% reported. Looking at our two revenue drivers, customers grew nearly 9% during the last year and we ended Q4 with approximately 13.8 million paying customers. Our annual average revenue per user or ARPU grew over 6% to $121, up from $114 a year ago, even while absorbing the impact of the stronger dollar. Second, we are consistently delivering even faster growth in cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA grew over 30% year-over-year in the quarter and frankly, we had spectacular performance in unlevered free cash flow with an increase of more than 145% last quarter and more than 50% growth for the full year 2015 versus 2014. Those are great gains in our two key profitability measures, achieved while we continued to invest in growth. Third, we feel well-positioned to continue delivering a solid combination of top and bottomline growth going forward. I will provide some color on the performance of our three product lines. First, domains revenue finished the quarter at $218 million, up 9% year-over-year. Our domains business continues to be fueled by international growth, strong and improved renewals and continued expansion in the domains aftermarket. While in recent months, we have received a handful of questions about China, specifically on the surge of domain registrations coming from Mainland China in Q4 and how it's affected us. Here's some background. For several months in Q3 and Q4, interest in short domain names spiked in China, particularly those with three to six characters, both in Pinyin and numeric names. Now, the vast majority of those registrations were done through Chinese-based registrars, often at below cost, so that activity didn't affect our results. We do believe that most of the incremental registrations were by local Chinese domain investors. Now, the surge was positive for our domain aftermarket business as we facilitated the secondary sale of several short character names, given our unique position as the largest domain marketplace in the world. While the surge in the primary market didn't affect us, we do see it as great proof point of the value of domains in character-based languages and the prospect for our growth in Asia over time. With our January launch of localized GoDaddy offerings in Asian markets and languages, we look forward to building our presence and participation in those markets in a meaningful way going forward. The interest we saw in the purchase and sale of domain names in the aftermarket also highlights the value of domain names as unique digital assets with real value. With our growing domain marketplace, we are well positioned to help grow the global aftermarket in names and make these secondary name transactions both easier and more transparent for our customers and for the industry. Now, today Asia is still very small for us, generating less than 4% of our total company bookings. We are excited about our recent launches and the opportunity to build those markets into a more meaningful business for us over time. This will be a multi-year process that I will address a little bit more when I discuss our outlook. Now, turning to our products beyond naming. Our hosting and presence revenue was $156 million in Q4, up about 13% year-over-year. As Blake mentioned, we are increasingly bundling our products bringing domains, our basic presence offerings and email and productivity products together in introductory offers, which we believe will benefit renewals and the long-term economics and value of our customers over time. Recall that when we sell products in a bundle, revenue gets allocated across all the products in the bundle according to their list prices. Bundling like this, for example, combining our website building tool with free Office 365, shifts revenue recognition among product lines in the short-term, but our focus is always on the overall lifetime spend of our customers in aggregate. When you look at the growth rates of our three business lines this quarter, it shifted several hundred basis points of growth to business applications from our domains and hosting and presence lines in the fourth quarter. Business applications revenue of $52 million accelerated to growth of 50% year-over-year in Q4, driven by continued strong growth in both productivity and email marketing and the bundling effect I just mentioned. Like all companies with a meaningful international presence, our 2015 topline growth also reflected the impact of currency, which became more pronounced through 2015. For the full-year 2015, bookings growth would have been 17% or 320 bps higher and revenue growth would have also been 17% or about 140 bps higher in constant currency. Most importantly, we remain happy about our international growth and our future prospects. Our international business now represents 26% of total revenue and grew 25% in constant currency in Q4. Over the last three years, we have grown share and accelerated growth in our primary non-U.S. markets at attractive economics. Looking ahead, we are going to continue to focus on extending our gains in Asia, the U.K. and other key geographies while building up our Asia business. Turning to profitability, we continue to deliver strong cash flow. I mentioned adjusted EBITDA grew over 30% in Q4 to $74 million and for the full-year, EBITDA grew over 24% to $337 million, producing a 21% margin, a gain of 140 basis points versus 2014. Unlevered free cash flow was up dramatically, growing 147% in Q4 to $52 million, bringing our full-year unlevered free cash flow to $294 million, a gain of almost 54% versus 2014. In 2015, we converted 87% of adjusted EBITDA into unlevered free cash flow, near the high end of our long-term target range of 70% to 90%. Now, just a minor note on our operating cost lines in Q4. Two items in the fourth quarter a year ago produced somewhat unusual growth for a couple of our cost lines. Specifically, our tech and dev costs would have grown a bit faster than we reported in Q4, more like 7% year-over-year and our G&A growth would have been quite a bit slower or about 8% year-over-year without the non-recurring items in the year-ago quarter. Looking forward, both tech and dev and G&A should continue to be sources of leverage for us in 2016. Now overall our combination of strong top and bottom line performance demonstrates the inherent leverage in our operating model, allowing us to steadily grow the topline, invest in growth across the business and deliver excellent unlevered free cash flow, all of which contributed to delevering the balance sheet throughout 2015. We finished the year with approximately $353 million in cash and short term investments and net debt of $731 million or about 2.2 times our 2015 adjusted EBITDA. So turning to our outlook for 2016. Today we are providing guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA for both the first quarter of 2016 and the full-year. Our strategy is designed to generate consistent, steady growth over the long term and that's reflected in our outlook, which is right in line with the expectations we shared with you at the time of the IPO and throughout all of last year. For Q1, we expect revenue in the range of $428 million to $432 million, implying approximately 14% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. For the full year 2016, we expect revenue of $1.82 billion to $1.845 billion, also implying approximately 14% growth at the midpoint. Now this outlook incorporates the continued impact of currency, as past bookings translate into revenue in 2016. In other words, without the dollar strength that trimmed bookings in 2015, our 2016 revenue outlook would have been a bit higher what I just shared. But even while absorbing this, the ranges are right in line with the long-term revenue expectations we had shared with everybody before. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter in the range of $111 million to $114 million and for the full-year 2016 of $400 million to $410 million. The midpoint of our full year adjusted EBITDA range implies 20% growth year-over-year, also in line with the long-term targets we have shared. Two quick comments on our 2016 expectations. First, this outlook incorporates the costs associated with our recent entry into the new markets in Asia, but relatively limited top-line impact from that region. We expect to spend 2016 tuning our product offerings and marketing in these countries to lay the foundation for a more meaningful contribution from these markets in 2017 and beyond. So although Asia won't dramatically affect our P&L much in 2016, we are excited about the long-term potential there as these geographies build into meaningful contributors over time. Second, Blake described our marketing evolution and specifically our focus on reinforcing our brand message more frequently and consistently throughout the year, as opposed to our historically big brand awareness push in Q1. As we broaden our marketing reach and expand the tactics that we use, our Q1 and full-year outlook reflect our expectation for slightly less first quarter seasonality than we have experienced in past years. But overall, I am taking a step back. We are well positioned for continued growth at scale in 2016 and beyond. We serve a huge market of small businesses, organizations and individuals who are looking to build an online presence. We deliver a true lifecycle experience to these customers that combine products, an integrated tech platform and care in a distinctive way. And the products and services that we offer grow with our customers over time. This value proposition translates into a proven financial model with great customer unit economics and strong and consistent overall revenue and cash flow growth. So to wrap, our Q4 performance and execution were strong and we are focused on continuing to deliver for our customers and our shareholders over time. With that, we will open it up for your questions.