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Genesco Inc. (GCO)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 31, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day everyone. And welcome to the Genesco’s Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Conference Call. Just a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. Participants on the call expect to make forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the participants’ expectations as of today, but actual results could be different. Genesco refers you to this morning’s earnings release and to the Company’s SEC filings, including the most recent 10-Q filing, for some of the factors that could cause differences from the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements made during the call today. Participants also expect to refer to certain adjusted financial measures during the call. All non-GAAP financial measures referred to in the prepared remarks are reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in the attachments to this morning’s press release and in schedules available on the Company’s homepage under Investor Relations. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Bob Dennis, Genesco’s Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Bob Dennis

Management

Good morning and thank you for being with us. I’m joined today by our Chief Financial Officer Mimi Vaughn. The second quarter proved to be a bit more challenging than we expected with positive momentum from Journeys offset by increasing headwinds at Lids. In addition, the consumer shift in shopping away from stores to digital continued at a faster pace and thus with a more pronounced impact on our results than we anticipated. Consolidated comparable sales were flat, were at the low end of our guidance range with stores down 2% and direct up 30%, which included strong double-digit comps in almost every business. The flat comp pressured profitability in what is typically our lowest volume quarter as our teen customer gets out of school and customers in general turn their attention to summer activities rather than shopping. The buy-now-wear-now mindset for our teen shoppers has also shifted back-to-school later, which means out of July and the end of the second quarter and into August and September. Adjusted EPS came in at a loss of $0.10, a little below our forecast. $0.02 of this loss was due to a change in accounting for a Software-as-a-Service system implementation, which wouldn’t have impacted the quarter ‘s bottom line under the old accounting treatment. Mimi will provide a bridge to last year’s results in a moment, but let me first walk through the highlights and the headwinds of our second quarter performance. To start, we were pleased with the positive sales trends in our teen and young adult fashion footwear businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Journeys comps improved significantly on a sequential basis, turning positive compared with down 5% in the first quarter. The Journeys team has adjusted its assortment in response to the intense fashion shift that emerged at this…

Mimi Vaughn

Management

Thank you, Bob. Good morning. As a reminder, we have posted more detailed information online in our CFO Commentary. For Q2, consolidated revenue decreased 1% to $617 million. Without the sale in December of the SureGrip business and the impact of foreign exchange, primarily the pound devaluing against the dollar, revenue would have been flat. Consolidated comps in Q2 were flat. Consolidated store comps were down 2% and consolidated direct comps were up 30%, a large gap similar to what we saw in Q1. While traffic was down in our stores, it was up on our website, and mobile drove much of the increase in direct sales. Direct as a percent of total retail sales was up 10%, up more than 200 basis points over last year. Positive comps at Journeys and Schuh were offset by negative comps at Lids and J&M. Journeys comp made a dramatic improvement from negative 5% in Q1 to positive 1% in Q2 as the new part of the assortment grew at a fast enough rate to overtake the decline in the legacy part of the assortment. Traffic improved and average ticket increased as Journeys sold higher priced fashion athletic products through the summer and beginning of back-to-school. Fashion athletic products also drove Schuh’s plus 3% comp which would have been higher without a supply chain disruption of one of its top selling vendor. Team win and loss record, mall traffic and the absence of the strong headwear trend all affected Lids sales in Q2. Comps were negatively impacted by hot market team with unfavorable payoff results for us in the NBA and NHL. While the Golden State win drove additional sales, the increase didn’t come close to matching the large gain from the Cavaliers last year and a Penguins three-peat for the Stanley Cup…

Bob Dennis

Management

Thanks Mimi. I’ll now review in more detail the important actions we are taking across our operating companies that are key to meeting our challenges. I will discuss the five initiatives I mentioned earlier. Starting with reducing real estate risk and managing rent expense. With forecasted record retail store closures, the state of mall traffic and the rent deleverage we’ve experienced, we have stepped up efforts significantly on this critical front. As a starting point, our store portfolio is in very good shape. In the U.S., about 35% of our doors are in A malls, 45% in B malls and 15% in C malls and the balance in street and other locations. Importantly, our store four-wall contribution in C locations is in the mid-teens and as high on a percentage basis as our A and B locations due to more favorable rent terms. And average lease life in the C malls is three years and we are reviewing many of these locations for only one or two years upon expiration to preserve flexibility, often with further rent decreases. So, bottom-line is we’re making money in the C malls and can exit in the short-term if the situation in these malls deteriorates. Lot of work we need to do is in our A and B centers. If store traffic and comps are going backwards, store rents need to go backwards as well. We have had good success in the renewals we have negotiated this year with a 20% reduction in cash rent or 12% on a straight line accounting basis. We are seeing reductions in all tiers of malls with some of the largest reductions in the least productive ones. With almost 650 leases expiring this fiscal year and close to 1,300 expiring over the next three years, we have the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Pam Quintiliano with SunTrust.

Pamela Quintiliano

Analyst

Bob, when you talked about guidance and all the unknowns within the broad range, on -- when we think about the high-end and the low-end of the guidance, what are you assuming for the competitive promotional environment out there? Obviously, it’s very messy. Just, how should we think about how you’re planning for the holiday season? And then, just quickly, you mentioned broadly 30% of customers transacting cash. How does that differ between Journeys and Lids? Thanks so much.

Bob Dennis

Management

Sure. That was two questions. But, okay. On the first one. Look, the range is what it is. So, if it’s a more promotional environment, Pam, it pulls us down to the lower end of the range. We obviously haven’t really seen Journeys struggling that much with promotional environment. We called it out because we know a number of the other mall retailers are in a tough inventory position with their comp trend. So, we’re alert to the fact that that could pick up. But right now, in terms of the product that is hot and working well for us, we are not seeing a huge promotional pressure as of yet. And in terms of cash, both Journeys and Lids are -- have that kind of cash profile. I think they’re pretty similar. So, about the same.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jay Sole with Morgan Stanley.

Jay Sole

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Great, thank you. Bob, could we dig into the Lids hat story a little bit. Obviously, Mimi called out wins and losses and some tough compares and some traffic issues. Is there an element of maybe sports to become little bit less popular, people aren’t wearing the sports hats as much, they’ve shifted something else in fashion? Is there store -- because most of the stuff that was called out is sort of temporary, is going to probably reverse just based on wins and losses are unpredictable. But, is there anything bigger going on that you could call out?

Bob Dennis

Management

It’s a great question, Jay. So, we know that the comp in the second quarter suffered by what we call a hot market offset, and Mimi called it out. So, Cleveland was such a bigger event than Golden State because Golden State in a way is a repeat. So that’s a piece of it. From a fashion standpoint, we’ve gone through a trend where what is affectionately called the dad hat, which I don’t take offense to, is -- has been very popular. But that’s getting a little long in the tooth. So, we don’t really have a strong fashion trend that’s driving things. And then obviously, the win-loss record and sort of the hot market challenge going forward with the Cubs is substantial. And our ability to mitigate that will depend as I called out, a Dodgers-Yankees or frankly a Dodgers Huston World Series would be a good. But, I can come up with some combinations that are less good. In terms of a generalized propensity to not buy as many hats. It’s very hard to get underneath that and we are working hard to get underneath that and try to understand whether that is part of the underlying trend. What I can tell you is that there isn’t a section of the store that is suffering more than the other. We’re getting less traffic and they’re buying across the assortment in roughly the same percentage. So, it’s not like we have a style in the store or a sports in the store that is especially a tanking. We do have to be -- we are little, and this is not a hat issue, but as we rotate out of the NBA jersey and the NHL jersey, we’re deliberately, intentionally lean there, so that we can accommodate that change. Mimi, anything you want to add?

Mimi Vaughn

Management

I think one of the things Jay that we are pleased by the very strong growth that we have seen online and we are doing a lot of hat selling online, our traffic has been up; our conversion has been very strong online. So, we think perhaps part of this is that consumers are just diversifying how they’re thinking about shopping both in-stores and online. And that may account for a portion of the pressure in the stores as well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Marotta with C. L. King & Associates.

Steve Marotta

Analyst · C. L. King & Associates.

Good morning, everybody. Mimi, you mentioned e-commerce penetration; I think you said 10%. A, is that right? And B, is in it larger on an annual basis? And I just want to ask one more question about the Dodgers-Yankees. Bob, you mentioned that’s good. Does that mean you would expect it to lap positively against the Cubs or just less that?

Bob Dennis

Management

Everything we do is trying to be less that. There is no good substitute for the Cubs.

Mimi Vaughn

Management

And as far as e-commerce penetration, Steve, yes, for the quarter, it was 10%. But, we see the stronger e-commerce penetration in the fourth quarter. And so, I think the important call-out is that we were running 200 basis points up over last year. And so, we ended last year for the year at a little under 10%, and if we track to the same level, we should be around the 12%.

Bob Dennis

Management

Yes, 12% or 13%. Unfortunately, the percentage is going up, mostly because of the increases we’re getting at e-com, but the negative comps in the stores are also changing that percentage. So, it’s going up a lot. And I just want to be clear, as I know there is some confusion in this. We talk about how the conversion, the move from stores to e-com is dilutive to our earnings. That is not to say that the e-com business is unprofitable. The four-wall on the e-com sits in the same neighborhood as our stores. The problem is when the sales go down in the stores, it is against a highly fixed cost base, especially in the first three quarters. When sales go up in e-com, we add variables expense. So, Mimi we called out on the gross margin line the additional shipping charge that occurs, which is incremental. So, if you just take another percentage of our sales out of stores and into e-com, leaving total sales constant, it does hurt profitability. But, we are very pleased with the profitability of the e-com business as its own business.

Mimi Vaughn

Management

Yes. And part of it is that we run e-com to be profitable. We have shipping threshold across all of our businesses; we don’t have free returns. We are…

Bob Dennis

Management

We do, we have free returns to the store.

Mimi Vaughn

Management

Free returns to the store, right; we don’t have free returns online. We are also not just buying market share at the expense of profitability; we measured carefully the return on the paid search and the catalogue that we are dropping and we aim to continue to run that business for profitable growth.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Erinn Murphy with Piper Jaffray.

Eric Johnson

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Hi. Good morning. This is Eric on for Erinn today. Thanks for taking our question. Some of your specialty retail, athletic peers in Q2, most of them underperformed and lowered their full year expectations pretty meaningfully. I was just curious if does that’s changed your guys’ outlook or has your outlook changed year-to-date within the fashion athletic in terms of what you’re planning? And outperforming your plans but in the second half are you still expecting, I guess, what you were maybe 90 days ago?

Bob Dennis

Management

Yes. I mean, we’re tracking -- we have said from the start -- first, let say, Erinn, if you’re listening in, we’re thinking about you, we know it’s tough in Houston, so hopefully you’re toughing it out there.

Mimi Vaughn

Management

We hope you can get out of your apartment at some point.

Bob Dennis

Management

Yes. But, we’re on the track where we said we thought we would be. We described this as a fashion rotation which has been just part of Journeys history throughout its life and that -- this one was a little more severe because of how concentrated we were early on with the last trend. So, when you look at the athletic peers, they are in a different situation than we are. We’re very focused on fashion athletic, a lot of that is classic. There are some styles that are more progressive that are -- but clearly still in the fashion category, and that’s essentially where we are focused. That is a lot of full price selling; that delivered the comp that we described in back-to-school August. And we believe, as we said on the script, that that is a trend that we can sustain through the end of this year and should be helpful for us even into next spring.

Mimi Vaughn

Management

We anticipate the same level of comp. We guided to the same level of comp for Journeys, which means we are tracking on where we thought we would be. Really the takedown in our guidance is largely attributed to the trends we are seeing in Lids and the turn that we have seen in the last half.

Bob Dennis

Management

Yes. And the shift to digital; that shift to digital is just a dilutive event.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu with Macquarie.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst · Macquarie.

Good morning and thank you for all the color. Your guidance for the full year on gross margins seems to be down 50 to 60 bps. I mean, I think you mentioned 3Q gross margins will also be down. Should we assume gross margins to be flat, up or down for the fourth quarter? And then, secondly, any high level thoughts on how you are thinking about the boot category for the back half of the year?

Bob Dennis

Management

I will do the boot category just very quickly. The only thing we are thinking about the boot category is we’re recognizing more and more of that as a buy-it-now-wear-it-now business. So, if you go back a long ways, we used to actually intensify the boot assortment back-to-school. That makes no sense anymore. The teenager is not investing in their boot buys until it is much closer to the day where they need it. So, part of what we are doing in the fourth quarter is we’ll be flowing boots differently, and that’s created an opportunity to flow more of the hot athletic product deeper into the year than we ordinarily would. And we think all of that should be a positive for the business. On gross margins, Mimi?

Mimi Vaughn

Management

Yes. So, on gross margins, we were down 60 basis points in the second quarter, which was a bit deal better than the first quarter. The first quarter, as we talked about, had some unusual pressure on a year-over-year basis. Promotions normalized for Lids in the first quarter this year. So, in the third quarter, we expect roughly the same gross margin pressure but in the fourth quarter we actually should be in the neighborhood of level to last year. Last year, we were doing a lot of promotions in order to clear product to make sure that we ended the year in very clean inventory position as we were moving through the fashion rotation. And so, in spite of some of the trade-offs that we are making in IMOs for the new product in Journeys, when we lap that more promotional activity, we should be about even. And then, for Lids, the strength of the Cubs sales, some of that championship product actually is delivered, gross margin sort of lower there. So, we think that we ought to be close to par on Lids as well for the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jonathan Komp with Robert W. Baird.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Yes. Hi, thanks. I want to follow-up on the guidance for the year. Mimi, I know you held the prior range at the high end for the comps but you brought full range down for earnings. So just, I know you called out some of the expense deleverage with the traffic shifts. But I am wondering if you could be a little more descriptive in the incremental cost pressure that you are embedding now? And then, also, when you look out to the fourth quarter, I think -- it’s obvious that Journeys will be facing a low margin comparison. It’s not entirely obvious that the other concepts will be facing a low comparison. So, could you maybe just parse out what you’re expecting in the fourth quarter in terms of driving the earnings growth?

Mimi Vaughn

Management

Sure. So, in terms of the range of the guidance comp -- and you’re right, it’s the back part of the year we do such a large amount of business that even a point of comp ends up moving the needle quite a lot. And so, the largest change in our guidance is the takedown of the Lids comp. You’ll see that our -- we’re actually expecting stronger results for Schuh. So that offset that to some extent. And we’re expecting to see the same trajectory, on the top-line for Journeys. What we do see though is more gross margin pressure. We saw more gross margin pressure overall in Lids in the second quarter, we expect that will continue in the third quarter. And whereas we thought that gross margin would be flat for the year, we now expect it to be down in the neighborhood of 50 to 60 basis points. And I just talked about the margin pressure. In the fourth quarter, it’s the championship product of the Cubs that is delivered; we actually get lower margin percentage for that versus our regular product mix. And so, that will build some more opportunity for favorability on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sam Poser with Susquehanna Financial Group.

Sam Poser

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial Group.

I really want to follow up on the store -- like on the stores and driving traffic into the stores. And when you spoke about next year, you said that the store growth would be way down. Could you really -- can we get some detail on to what you’re doing to drive traffic into the stores with such a large store base and your discussion that the consumers is coming in less?

Bob Dennis

Management

Well, to be clear, at Journeys, the customer is coming in more during back-to-school. The general trend in the mall over the last three or four years has -- we’ve been traffic challenged, the mall has, and we have in most of our concepts. For the early stages of that, Sam, we were making it up on conversion because we were getting customers with the greater intent to buy based on having done their window shopping on their couch.

Mimi Vaughn

Management

Yes. So, in the second quarter or just to put some numbers against that, we were significantly better than the mall in terms of traffic for Journeys and then in August return positive in terms of traffic year-over-year.

Bob Dennis

Management

Yes. But the reality is if you look at the big swing in our store comps between digital and stores, we’ve got the consumer making the call that they want to do a lot more of their business digitally. We have a store base and so we need to drive traffic to the stores. We need to get rents aligned with what traffic we do draw in, realistically looking at that as possibly being a pattern that will continue to be a challenge. But, then, we also have to try and drive the traffic where we think we can. And a lot of that is being done with digital marketing. And as you know, Sam, with catalogue, we’ve had great success with catalogue, and we’re increasing a lot of that since the kid isn’t just wandering to the mall, maybe as often as they used to, we’re giving them a reason to come. We’re using bounce back coupons which have proved to be very effective to try and increase the frequency which our core customers revisit the store. And then, obviously, what we’re doing in terms of the store presentation is, we did the research couple of years ago and the customer pointed us to some ways in which we could improve the presentation in the store in terms of -- it was not high CapEx stuff but important stuff and we got after it. And so, we’re making headway in that direction. The guys at Lids are actually testing a new look to see if that works for driving more traffic in. A lot of the work in the Lids area, as you know, is being done with customization. So, we’ve got embroidery as a big push in the hat stores. We’re doing custom apparel, mostly on jerseys in a number of our big format stores. So, all-in-all, we’re doing a lot of things. We think to try and enhance the experience in the store and to attract more people to come to the store and at the same time, we’re playing defense, mindful that even if we do all of those things, some of the just the structural changes that seem to be going on, might be a headwind. And that will call for both the rent, attacking rents and then look at the fleet size, if rents can’t in fact adjust to where we think they need to be.

Operator

Operator

It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Dennis, I’d like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Bob Dennis

Management

Yes. Well, first of all, thank you for joining us on the call. We look forward to talking to you. And again, to all of our employees down in Texas, we’re with you, our hearts are with you, and we’re going to try and be as helpful as we can, as you all try to recover. Thanks a lot. We’ll talk to you in a bit.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.