Earnings Labs

StealthGas Inc. (GASS)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 23, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the StealthGas Third Quarter 2018 Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Harry Vafias, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Harry Vafias

Management

Good morning, everybody and welcome to our third quarter 2018 earnings call. This is Harry Vafias, the CEO of StealthGas. With me today is our Finance Officer, Mrs. Sakellaris, who will discuss our financial performance at the later stage of our call. Before we commence our presentation, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking statements, which reflect current views with respect to future events and financial performance. At this stage, if you could all take a moment to read our disclaimer on Slide 2, risks are further disclosed in StealthGas’ filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. I would also like to point out that all amounts quoted unless otherwise clarified are implicitly stated in U.S. dollars. Slide 3 summarizes the key highlights for the third quarter results we released today. Overall, our performance in Q3 was softer than what we anticipated due to several factors other than seasonal factors that always prevailed in the third quarter of any year. Although our market fundamentals are strong and we’ll continue to be slow, this quarter we noticed an unexpected slowdown in the Asian LPG market with some charters not extending charters for several ships. Inevitably, this led to operate in the spot market. Scheduled maintenance of Chinese PDH plants, along with fewer spot cargos, led to a poor spot activity in the area with lower than expected revenues for the owners. Thankfully the market conditions described above were temporary, as in the past couple of months, the Asian market has improved. We believe it's a strong demand for LPG and the positive fundamentals of the small LGP segment that fuel our market. As per our company’s performance this quarter in spite of a tough eastern market, we marked a 96.1% operational utilization and a 15% reduction…

Fenia Sakellaris

Management

Thank you, Harry, and good morning to everyone. So let me continue the presentation focusing on our financial performance for the third quarter and nine months of 2018. As explained at the beginning of our call, our performance in the third quarter of '18 was hindered by a temporary slowdown of the Asian LPG market. Adding to this, we faced some technical issues of three small LPG vessels thus increasing our cost base. Although our operational utilization of 96.1% was not a bad performance for the third quarter, increased spot activity at soft time charter rates, lower the revenues compared to the previous quarter of the year. In addition to this, the increase of maintenance and repair costs beyond expected levels and the amount of profitability even further. It is promising however, that the market disruption in Asia wasn't corrected and then market rates continue to be on the rise. Let us move on to Slide 7 where we see the income statement for the third quarter of '18 against the same period of the previous year. Voyage revenues came at $42.7 million marking a rise of $4.2 millio compared to the same period of last year. This quarter our revenues from previous contracts increased by almost 9.2%, while our spot revenues by 6% compared to Q3 '17, due to higher prevailing market rates. However, our spot earnings were realized utilizing almost twice as many than customary number of vessels in the spot market and with 50% higher oil prices. Voyage costs amounted to $5.8 million, marking, a $2.1 million increase compared to Q3 '17. This increase is an outcome of higher spot days and the sharp rise of oil prices, which increased the marketing cost compared to Q3 '17 by almost $1.2 million. Net revenues, that is revenues after…

Harry Vafias

Management

Let's proceed with market update in Slide 11. China's demand for LPG has grown significantly during the past years. Demand is anticipated to grow even further as China currently operates eight PDH plants with LPG processing capacity of 5.5 million tons per year and propylene production capacity of 4.6 million metric tons per year. There are currently a number of plants in various stages capable to double current propylene production by 2022. It's worth to be mentioned that recently imposed LPG tariffs on U.S. LPG imports are expected to have a little impact on the overall demand for LPG carriers as China has increased imports from the Middle East and West Africa. Focusing on India, LPG imports have grown at a strong pace of about 16% per annum over the last decade. The government is setting out incentives in order to further promote LPG penetration in rural areas, which is anticipated to strengthen demand even further. Other countries, Australia, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, shut out to increase its LPG exports substantially over the next years. In addition, LPG is also capturing a growing share of Bangladesh’s energy mix, an important market with the population of over 265 million and a promising growth potential for LGP demand. In Slide 12, we see that during Q3 '18, rates for small LPG ships remained relatively flat, mostly due to seasonal factors and the unexpected slowdown in the Asian LPG market. Compared to a year ago, rates of all segments have increased by an average of about 15%, which is equivalent to about $1,000 per day. As per the future evolution of rates, it is expected that the market will continue to firm throughout 2019 and probably 2020. In terms of trade, West of Swiss, the spot market in the West…

Operator

Operator

[Operator instructions] We will now take our first question from Mr. Randy Giveans from Jefferies. Please go ahead sir.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

So, yes, following the announced sale of those seven older LPG vessels, you still have another seven vessels older than 17 years of age that can obviously be sold in the coming quarters. So what are your plans for those seven older vessels as well as your four semi-ref LPG carriers?

Harry Vafias

Management

Since we sold more vessels than expected, we don't expect to sell another seven vessels so fast. Obviously, we want to get rid of the slowly of the ships that are over 20 years of the age or close to that. But because the market seems to improve -- to be improving again, and those debt-free vessels are very good cash generators, it's not our first priority to sell another seven ships within the next six months. Generally speaking, of course, sooner or later these ships will be sold. On the same, semi-refs, there's not much to say. You never sell a ship at the bottom of the market. We are slightly off the bottom. Now it's slightly better, but we are still very close to the bottom of the market. These are brand new very high-spec ships, built in the backyard in the world, very expensive vessels. So we need to see the market improving making some good money out of those ships, and then we'll decide what we're going to do. It's not the time, of course, to sell those ships.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Okay. And then can you give a little more details about those 11 recently completed time charters or maybe just like an average rate of those 11?

Harry Vafias

Management

I don't think we have announced that around this. So it would be a breach of our rules. We have given some details on the script, which we just read. Give me a sec.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

And on Slide 8, you mentioned ….

Harry Vafias

Management

The rates are up 15% on average from their previous charter rates.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

15%. Okay, perfect. That's helpful. And then, yes, so your $65 million in cash is the highest since I guess 2016. So I guess two questions on that. Any interest in buying some second-hand vessels from your peers and consolidate in that way? Or what about repurchasing shares? You know, you obviously, had a very steep discounts NAV.

Harry Vafias

Management

Very good question, Randy. As per the Board's decision, this will be discussed after the – within Q1. Let's put it like that, within Q1, depending on what the market has done, depending on how much cash we have and depending on the stock price. There are not too many ships for sale anyway. So even if we wanted to buy good second-hand Japanese-built ships, it wouldn't be an easy task. But we have to compare in a way the advantages of buying more ships versus buying shares at a big discount now. As you know, we've been keen buyers of our stock. In the last buyback, we bought $21 million worth of shares. Then the market collapsed and the board wanted us to keep our cash for to lever the storm and take delivery of our 26 newbuildings, which we did without any hiccup. So this, I think will have more clarity on that in Q1, so in the next 2-3 months.

Randy Giveans

Analyst

Alright. And then last question from me. Utilizations usually pretty strong in 4Q, are you seeing that kick off from the 3Q levels, from 96.1 to, let's say, 97 or so in 4Q?

Harry Vafias

Management

We expect to have better utilization in Q4. Yes.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead, sir.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. I had another -- Randy asked about the buybacks, and I was curious about that. I noticed ships in the used market have been -- prices have been strong. We've been getting a good percentage of scrap prices. But notwithstanding that, we lose money on the sale -- notwithstanding the good performance. I'm wondering if that says something about our depreciation rates on our overall portfolio, because if we're losing money in a stronger ship market, wouldn't I conclude that our depreciation rates weren't conservative enough.

Harry Vafias

Management

Lance, very good comment. We've -- we had, let's say, exactly the same thinking. Some companies have 25 years depreciation, some companies have 30 years. There is no right or wrong on this because ships do trade up to 30 years. Some ships were brought in a strong market environment at higher prices. So when you sell them, they have a loss or a small loss. I don't have an answer to give you. We have 30 years depreciation in that 25. Maybe if we have 25, it wouldn't be a loss, it would be a breakeven. It doesn’t make a huge difference, because even if you have 25 years depreciation, then the money you would lose from the sale, you lose it from the depreciation. So between us doesn't make a huge difference.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

One other question. Are our ships, I guess, the new rules that are coming in, let's say, 2020 or 2021, do the new ships that we bought, they all qualify under the new proposed rules, right?

Harry Vafias

Management

There are no new rules. The only new rules that are coming in 2020 is the emissions. I don't think if it's that what you're talking about.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Right. That's what I'm talking about.

Harry Vafias

Management

With the emissions -- yes, with the emissions, you don't need to comply with anything. You just buy more expensive fuel. There is nothing to comply with. There is an option if you want to install a scrubber in order to be able to burn ship fuel. We have already stalled one scrubber on one of our most expensive newbuildings. And we have prepared the other three newbuildings with the scrubber-ready, but we have not installed a scrubber on the other three. Except on that, we haven't done anything else.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

So is that a test case or do you think it's -- do you want to see if it's worthwhile?

Harry Vafias

Management

Yes, exactly, because it's a very expensive system. We couldn't, obviously, gone buy 50 of them. We're talking about $2 million to $3 million per ship. So we did it on one. And let's say we prepared than other three as an experiment to see the pros and cons.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Right. One final, I don't know if I should go in queue again or. One final thing, last call, you’ve commented -- you thought the NAV was still at the $12 a share level, and we’ve kind of used that number over the years. Our stock is $3.35 or $3.30, I mean, that’s a tremendous differential. Presumably, if we could sell the company and NAV, shareholders would have an instant three or four gain. Has the Board ever thought of that?

Harry Vafias

Management

No, the Board hasn’t thought of that, because we were in the past at $3, and if you go and look at the share graph history. And by the time we started thinking of that, we were back at $12. So people made four times their money by just holding their stock.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Right.

Harry Vafias

Management

Of course, if that thing -- if that price stays for a lot longer, then, of course, it’s a topic to be discussed at the Board level, yes.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question from Mr. David Sachs from Hockey Capital. Please go ahead, sir.

David Sachs

Analyst

So if you could just refresh us in terms of the contribution to EBITDA and to revenue to the extent you can, the four SRs are on either the third quarter or on run rate basis?

Harry Vafias

Management

About 15%.

David Sachs

Analyst

So they're about 15% of revenue. And what about of the EBITDA?

Harry Vafias

Management

I’m talking about EBITDA.

David Sachs

Analyst

Okay. So 15% of the third quarter reported EBITDA were from the four SRs?

Harry Vafias

Management

Yes.

David Sachs

Analyst

Great. And could you also comment on the contribution from the Aframax and the three MRs?

Harry Vafias

Management

About 15%.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Vafias, I would like to turn the call back to you for additional or closing remarks.

Harry Vafias

Management

We would like to thank you for joining our conference call today and for your interest in trusting our company. And we look forward to having you again at our next conference call for our fourth quarter 2018 results in February 19. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.