Earnings Labs

StealthGas Inc. (GASS)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 25, 2016

$9.68

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the StealthGas Fourth Quarter Full Year Results 2015 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Harry Vafias. Please go ahead, sir.

Harry Vafias

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and thank you for dialing in to our fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings presentation. This is Harry Vafias, CEO of StealthGas and joining me on the call today is our Finance Officer, Mrs. Sakellaris, who will discuss the financial results at the later stage of the call. Before, we commence presentation. I would like for all of you to be reminded that we will be discussing forward-looking statements, which reflect current views with respect to future events and financial performance. At this stage, if you could all take a moment to read our disclaimer on Slide 2. It's noted that risks are further disclosed in StealthGas' filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. I would also like to note that all amounts quoted, unless otherwise clarified, are stated in US dollars. So let's start from Slide 3, so to summarize our company's key highlights for the year. As an opening statement, it has to acknowledged that in 2015 we faced a difficult environment with slowing global economy and record low oil prices both affecting greatly the broader shipping sector. Particularly in the coastal LPG overall market conditions were poor with weak freight rates, fewer available cargos and more ships to compete with. Despite this challenging market conditions, we believe that our company stood strong, demonstrating throughout the year revenue growth was successfully concluding the rigorous capital investment plan for the year. As mentioned in our previous call throughout 2015. We took delivery of total of 10 new eco - LPG carriers all from top quality yards. Our fleet expansion assisted us to achieve year-on-year increase vessel calendar days of about 15%, while we manage to close a year with an operational utilization of 92.5%. We continued our conservative chartering strategy maintaining [indiscernible] customary…

Fenia Sakellaris

Management

Thank you, Harry and good morning to everyone. As an opening statement and as mentioned early on. We acknowledge that this year's profitability potential was appraised due to market conditions, but we feel we managed for yet another quarter in consistently doing the year to materialize successful cost effective management policies. Let us move on to Slide 9, where we see the income statement for the fourth quarter of 2015 and full year results against the same periods of the previous year. Looking at the fourth quarter results, our voyage revenues came at $37.4 million marking a 7% increase compared to the same period of 2014. Mainly due to the realization of our new deliveries, which are all charters on period [ph] charters. We must note that, since rates have marked the year-on-year decline in excess of 23%, in the 2005 cbm segment. Our revenue increased could have potentially been stronger. Voyage cost amounted to $4.2 million marking a 20% increase compared to Q4, 2014 as this quarter as spot market days more than doubled as we had 12 vessels on the spot market, this period compared to five in the fourth quarter of last year. Net revenues, that is revenues impacting voyage cost, came at $33.2 million. Running cost at $14.2 million and given a positive fleet expansion marked a 20% increase. Key drivers of operating costs at the net additional rate of vessels and one vessel coming off very good. While in terms of cost cutting always key driver of OpEx increase, where the higher crew [ph] cost. At this point, it's worth to mention that this quarter we had no new vessel deliveries embedded in our cost base and compared to the third quarter of 2015, we managed to contain cost as OpEx increased by only 5%,…

Harry Vafias

Management

Let's now proceed with Slide 13, despite of a soft global economy and oil prices. Seaborne trade of LPG is expected to grow by 26% in the period 2016-2018. The slowing down of China's economy in 2015 had created much concern over seaborne trade, but for LPG's China mark in the aforementioned yearly rise in LPG volumes of 71% primarily driven by the opening of the PDH plants and an increased domestic consumption. The US is bound to remain on one of the key drivers of the LPG business. As export market share to Asia is expected to increase significantly in the upcoming years. In terms of LPG product pricing, which is currently at low levels. As the price is affected by fluctuations in oil prices. Besides any change in LPG supply and demand fundamentals may affect pricing in a positive way. Slide 14, shows the evolution of the LPG charter rates. As evident by the table presented, the Small LPG segment has experienced declining rates during the past year. Compared to Q4, 2014 rates have dropped by as much as 16%, while from the beginning of 2014 rates have declined by about 23%. Indeed this is a sharp decline that inevitably has affected the profitability of seaborne trade. It's noted however and as built in the top left table that during the last month, we see a minor positive ascent in the evolution of rates in all categories of our segment. And other element which might positively affect cost of LPGs, is the potential increase of scrapping. A logical step since high number of vessels in the market, but most importantly due to the fact that 24% of the fleet is above 20 years of age. Since the beginning of 2015, we show the demolition of 15 vessels including…

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much, Mr. Vafias. [Operator Instructions] we will now take our first question from Charles Rupinski from Seaport Global. Please go ahead sir, your line is now open.

Charles Rupinski

Analyst

Good afternoon, thanks for taking my question.

Harry Vafias

Management

Hi, Charles.

Charles Rupinski

Analyst

I'm just curious, you'd mention scrapping is being, the territorial [ph] catalyst last couple quarter and also mentioned that, as a leadership role StealthGas has views on this. Are you seeing anything on the marketplace, do you think this might accelerate or is this something that's going to be maybe something steady over the next few quarters in terms of the role fleet?

Harry Vafias

Management

Yes, thank you. Charles. As you know, these things cannot be predicted, but it all depends on the rate. If rates stay as they are or for further, I think you'll see more vessels going for scrap. If we see, an improvement in rates. I guess you'll see a slower rate of scrapping because owners will think twice before scrapping their valuable assets despite their age. Their point is, big percentage of the fleet is over 20 years of age. So sooner or later, these ships will go. Now [indiscernible] this year or the next, obviously nobody can say.

Charles Rupinski

Analyst

Okay, great well. Appreciate you managing through this downturn. Thanks for taking the question.

Harry Vafias

Management

Thank you. Charles.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Sheffield from Beach Point Capital. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is now open.

Patrick Sheffield

Analyst

Thanks for taking, my question. Harry, a quick one on seasonality. In the past, you've described Q1 and Q4 is being relatively strong compared to Q2 and Q3. Do you, does that relationship still exists? You mentioned in Q4 rates roughly slightly from Q3, is that based on seasonality or any kind of math?

Harry Vafias

Management

Excellent question, Patrick. I think from the point that the oil price collapsed, that seasonality has basically evaporated meaning that, the rates; winter, summer have become somewhat same. Of course there are sometimes special conditions like icy ports and delays and fogs and stuff like that happen sometimes in North Europe or the Black Sea, which spike the spot market for a little bit. But generally speaking, I think we had relatively warm winter, thus we haven't seen the seasonality factor that we have been seeing the last five years.

Patrick Sheffield

Analyst

Got it and then looking at your at the outlook for supply and demand for your ships. You have a couple charts in here that, that try to describe it, but could you kind of provide any more color, that you might have on the outlook of supply and demand and what that might mean to rates going forward?

Harry Vafias

Management

Yes, I mean again Patrick, I'm not somebody that can predict the future, but it depends on three things. I mean, it depends what your view is on those three things. One is scrapping as we just discussed. Two is, global economy in China. What are we going to do, are they going poof [ph], are they going to be in a worst shape and three is the price of oil. So I'm not an oil trader to give you my opinion. Most people think that the oil will stay low for at least hits year. So we have to take a defensive approach and got to have a very good balance sheet. We have our nice pre-contracted revenues of about $200 million and because of our low breakeven we can still survive, in this weak environment. Instead of burning cash like some other shipping companies especially in dry or LNG shipping are at the moment doing. So, we have lots of ships, we hope for an improvement now. If it will come this year or the next, again it's just a guess. One, it happens though obviously that will mean very, very good result for the company because we're such a large fleet. There is a very, very important multiplier effect.

Patrick Sheffield

Analyst

Is that your point, as you've got $6,100 a day in cash breakeven spot rates are still above that level?

Harry Vafias

Management

Yes, on average, yes because for example, if you're comparing 24-year old ship. If you include the idle time, it's below that, but on any ships that are above 15 years of age including the idle time. Yes I would say, that it's about $1,000 above.

Patrick Sheffield

Analyst

Got it. All right, thanks Harry.

Harry Vafias

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] and we will now take our next question from George Vermin [ph] from IFS Raymond James. Please go ahead, sir.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Indiscernible] gentlemen, thank you for taking my call.

Harry Vafias

Management

Hi, George as always.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I've got a quick question. Looking at your StealthGas fleet, you currently have four crude oil tankers in the fleet and that's about the only area in the ship market, where weights and values are pretty high. Have you given any thought looking at the current tremendous discount that you're trading to the value, to maybe monetize these four ships and taken the chunk of stock out of the market?

Harry Vafias

Management

Very good comment, George. Just to correct you. We don't have four crude tankers, we have one crude tanker and three product tankers, just to be correct. Yes, as you can understand because of the moment, LPG ships don't make real profits, we are basically breakeven. These tankers are providing a very nice cash inflow for the company and have been supporting the company during these weak times. If we didn't have the cash that we just announced, it would be our first thing to do. But because we have as you saw quite a big pile of cash and because we have been actively buying back stock and as we discuss, we have another $10 million to spend on top. I don't think it's our number one priority because these ships as I told you in the beginning are very, very good in helping the cash flow of StealthGas and have been cash money making machines especially over the last two years.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, you're limited by the average daily share of volume on the StealthGas. On how many shares you can actually purchase back, right?

Harry Vafias

Management

Correct.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

My thought was, looking at the situation of buying low and selling high. That the disposal of those crude and product tankers at this time and then coming into the market and making a general offer for a chunk of stock. Might prove very, very good especially in light of the fact that you sold in place, when you see couple years ago few million shares in the $10, $11, $12 range.

Harry Vafias

Management

Again a very good comment, but don't forget that our tankers have been money making machines because they have charters attached. So there are not many buyers that want tankers with charter attached. The majority of the buyers want tankers that are charter free, so that they can take advantage of the spot market. So it's not easy to sell ships with charters attached and we would have to take quite a considerable discount to do so.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, then that makes sense. Then one last question, in your weight scenario for the LPG ships, your fleet generally has smaller cubic meters 5,000 to 7,500 whereas the larger ones have significantly more. Would you consider yourself like a specialty operation, are there any companies that have like view only smaller size ships or are you basically one of a kind, facilitating the coastal transfer?

Harry Vafias

Management

Yes, I think we discussed that before, we're the largest company in the world in the small scale LPG transportation, there are other companies of course with similar size ships, but obviously not as big fleets as ours.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And the super LPG, LNG tankers that are flowing around, that usually don't have access to the ports, that use service, correct?

Harry Vafias

Management

Very correct. The majority of the port we share have a 100 meters length restriction in our ships. The majority of them at least are designed to be 99 meters.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Harry Vafias

Management

Thank you, George.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Geygan from Global Value Investment Corp. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is now, open.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

Good morning, Harry. Thanks for taking my call.

Harry Vafias

Management

Hi, Jeff.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

I'm looking at Slide 14 of your presentation and by the way, I would complement you as I think this presentation has become better and better overtime with more valuable information as to shareholders.

Harry Vafias

Management

This congratulations would be directed to Mrs. Sakellaris because she's the one that did it, not me but she's hearing you. She's next to you.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

Yes, great. Well, thank you. I like the additional detail. I'm looking at the complexion of the fleet on Slide 14 and you indicated the 24% of fleet is 20 years or older. What would actually motivate an owner to scrap a ship?

Harry Vafias

Management

Very simple I think question, Jeff. Two things; either very low freight rates or very high debt demolition prices.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

Then, would you expect given the modest amount of new Belgium place that there might be reluctant for some of these older ships to be scrapped, if in fact rates firm up.

Harry Vafias

Management

100%. When you're making, when you don't have any debt on the ships and you're making $5,000 or $6,000 and you're running courses about that. So you're not burning any cash, why would you be in a hurry to scrap your ships.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

Yes, yes I agree. So it's not, although the statistics almost suggested this fleet might contract on its own through scrapping, but you need to just to rate set a circumstances in order for that to happen, while rates are firming.

Harry Vafias

Management

Listen Jeff, in the end of the day, it doesn't really matter because the majority of the oil majors in the oil or gas receiving terminals in the developed nations, do not exist over 17, 18 years of age. So if these ships go for scrap or not, they don't really compete with our new generation expensive ships. So of course we want them to get scrapped, of course we want to make space for this new ships, but in the end of the day. Their quality business is awarded to the quality ships.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

I appreciate that, you said that in the past too and my last question and observation. The order book out to 2018, what is the lead time in order to get an order and to have a ship built? In other words, could the 2018 order book still up or are we beyond that, we're looking at 2019 right now?

Harry Vafias

Management

Listen, with market like this I doubt, I doubt anyone will place new orders. Of course, you can never be 100% certain, but we don't expect a surge, in orders but yes, now you can place an order for 2018. If you want to buy, that why should anyone place an order now in such an environment. I mean it doesn't make any sense.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

Unless you expect, outlook to improve in the future.

Harry Vafias

Management

What active? Do you expect the market to be as good as it was in beginning of 2014, yes but I don't see yet any signs of evidence of that.

Jeff Geygan

Analyst

Thank you and good luck.

Harry Vafias

Management

Thank you, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Sir, I will hand back over to you for any closing remarks. Thank you all for so much.

Harry Vafias

Management

We would like to thank everybody for joining us at our conference call today and for your interest and trust in our company. We look forward to having you with us again, at our next conference call for our Q1 results in May. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.