Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Amber and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Gap, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2015 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. As a reminder, please limit your questions to one per participant. I would now like to introduce your host, Jack Calandra, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Jack Calandra - SVP-Corporate Finance & Investor Relations: Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Gap, Inc.'s Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the information made available on this webcast and conference call contains forward-looking statements. For information on factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements as well as reconciliations and descriptions of non-GAAP financial measures, please refer to today's earnings press release as well as our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequent filings with the SEC, all of which are available on gapinc.com. These forward-looking statements are based on information as of February 25, 2016, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements. Joining me on the call today are CEO, Art Peck; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Sabrina Simmons. Sabrina will be using slides to supplement her remarks which you can view by going to the Investors section at gapinc.com. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Art. Arthur L. Peck - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Jack, and good afternoon to everyone. I'm pleased to be speaking to you as we kick off 2016. We've got 2015 behind us and I want to spend a reasonable amount of time going over my inventory of 2015, some of our accomplishments and some places where I feel like we need to continue to accelerate progress. I've spoken to you about this before and we're on a journey that is going to continue to take time both against our digital priorities as well as our product priorities. And so I want to spend a few minutes speaking to that and then I will focus a little bit on 2016 and where we are. So when I spoke to you a year ago and frankly each quarter that we've had this conversation, I've reiterated the fact that we have three core priorities in this company. The first one is product, and so we are at our core a fashion apparel company and our customers come to us for great, emotional on-trend, on-brand product. And a lot of the work that we have been doing in 2015 is continuing to move our brands forward to get centered on their aesthetic, centered on the right trends, to restore the appropriate quality to our products and really put in place the products in our stores that we know that our customers love. And I am really pleased with the quality of the work and the quantity of the work and the pace of the work that we've been doing across the entire company against our product priorities. And I've spoken to you about my vision of how products is changing in this industry. It's fascinating as you look at how the Fashion Week activities have played out over the last couple of weeks, a lot of articles out there about how brands are now making product available on runway immediately to their consumers. We did that in a small way also in Banana Republic. To me, what that illustrates is the increasing clock speed inside of this business, how fast trend at the high end of the market disseminates down into the mass markets. And it's against that backdrop of increasing clock speed, increasing pace of this business that we've been making very significant changes in our product process. And I'm not going to go into all of those today, but those are changes focused on getting better and better each season at managing buying risk as we build our assortments, an increasingly responsive and short supply chain, using science blended with the arts of creativity, design and merchandising to build the best possible assortments for our brand, and putting in place a very solid commercial planning process that allows us to make sure that we're building a commercial assortment that is on trend, on brand, with the right quality, mapped against delivering and exceeding our budget priorities. That is not all coming to fruition yet, but I'm, again, pleased with the work that we're doing. There are a couple of key components here that I want to call out. I am a true believer in quality, a big believer in quality and I believe that our customers are very sophisticated when it comes to understanding the value that we offer them in our products. And I'm extremely pleased with the quality restoration that I see in Gap's products and in Banana Republic as we look at the spring assortment and the summer assortment going forward. Second issue is, I've talked about responsiveness in our supply chain. This is a journey, and again, I'm not going to tell you what yard line we're on or give you a numerical score, but we are making significant and rapid progress, progress that is reflected in platforming product where we're buying fabrics over multi-season buys, positioning that fabric with key strategic vendors, giving us responsive capabilities, in some cases, to leave Open-to-Buy in season so that we can be back into product in season; in essence, buying what's working rather than guessing what's going to work. The third thing is progress on inventory management. And a big step that we took forward was a couple of years ago where we brought all of our inventory pools across our online and our stores together. We've made further progress this year where we've leveraged our retail DCs to provide direct fulfillment capacity for our online business and we're continuing to take steps to make sure that we're stranding the least amount of inventory and getting every penny of gross margin out of all of our units across the entire business regardless of what store it's in or what channel it was brought to fulfill. Second priority is experience. And on experience, I will call out a number of things that we're doing. We're modernizing our POS. I've talked about that before. We've built a number of omnichannel capabilities. We've virtualized our inventory so that we have access to all of our inventory across all of our demand. The thing that I am really excited about is the accelerating pace of mobile and the mobile experience that we have. Historically, we've operated our websites in two separate platforms. We're in the process of bringing those together on a fully responsively designed website. And most importantly, we're going through a cultural change inside the company of really thinking digital first and mobile first. Historically in this business, the moment of truth was when a customer crossed the leased line into a store. Today, as a company, we are increasingly seeing the moment of truth is when a customer, through their phone, comes into our digital store and we either win or lose their affection, their engagement and ultimately their sales if we win or lose at that moment of truth. And that creates for us both an opportunity, but also an imperative to move as fast as the customer is moving in mobile. This year, the bulk of our traffic will be mobile traffic to our digital space. That represents an opportunity because a great majority of that traffic is incremental, but it also means that we offer the customer an emotional, immersive, holistic, engaging brand experience along with what we have historically done extremely well, which is a very efficient e-commerce transactional experience. The last priority is talent and the entire company sits on a foundation of talent. We've been able to attract and retain exceptional talent and I am committed to making sure that this company has the best talent in the industry lined up in our businesses and our functions. As you all know yet, I've not named a permanent head of our Old Navy brand. When you have a seat like that that is empty which is one of the biggest seats in the business, I want to take my time to make sure that I understand looking forward what's the right profile of leadership for that seat and to understand our talent inside and outside the company in a way where I can make a decision that I feel is the best decision for the brand and the company. Part of what I've spent my time on over the last few months is getting very deep into the Old Navy business, and I'll speak more about that in a moment, to really understand where are the growth opportunities, which are significant, but where are those growth opportunities inside of Old Navy and how do we map a leadership role against the pursuit of those growth opportunities. I knew Old Navy pretty well several months ago. I've been much deeper with the team over there over the last few months. And what I will honestly and directly say to you is, as much as I was bullish about the opportunity in front of Old Navy before, for long-term continuous growth, I'm even that much more bullish today. I see a great brand and a compelling value proposition that I believe has the potential to hunt around the world. And I'm super excited about the growth prospects in front of that business. So let's dive in, in a little bit more into each of the brands and just talk a little bit about my observations of 2015. So just to be clear, and I'll start with Old Navy since I was talking about Old Navy; four years of growth. That is a business that has demonstrated that the brand is strong and that the value proposition for masspirational fashion, on trend, appropriate to the brand with great quality that she perceives and understands for the entire family, that's a compelling value proposition. We hit a bump in the road in Q4 and let me be clear about this. What happened in Q4, we have diagnosed and it was a combination of factors that unfortunately came together. First was we had a couple of style misses. We had a little bit of excess clearance inventory that we carried through. We had an unexpected drop of traffic, which has now for the most part corrected itself. The team is on it. I know we're making the right changes and I expect Old Navy to get back on track and continue to deliver the kind of market share leading performance that we've seen now over the course of the last four years. Let me go to Banana for a moment. I knew it was going to be a rebuilding year from a product and aesthetic standpoint. We took Banana to a place where we were trying to lead on fashion and trend and she does not want Banana to be that. We've diagnosed it, we've fixed it. I've seen the spring product, I've seen the summer product, but we got behind it in 2015 and I'm disappointed with the performance. But here's again what I'm confident about in Banana, which is, we've been doing the right work, I feel we have a very strong team in place right now, we have centered on the classic, appropriate, expected aesthetics of the brand. And I feel much more comfortable that we are on track as we get into spring, summer and then fall this year. So moving quickly to Athleta. We delivered a very strong back half performance in Athleta. We have a business that is very well positioned for our customer. It is right in the sweet spot of lifestyle trend. It is fundamentally omni-channel in that it came from being a catalog and online business with now over 100 stores in the portfolio and I continue to be very bullish about the upside of that business and the growth potential. Just as a sidebar, I would point out that I've been very supportive in them continuing to look for incremental growth opportunities on top of that solid platform. And a few weeks ago, we announced that we are building out an assortment for all the way from a very young girl up to a teenager inside of the Athleta box. We're not putting incremental real estate behind that. Rather, we're putting it in our existing stores and we feel that is a significant opportunity. So, a great business, one I'm super happy to have in our portfolio and I expect that you will continue to hear more news about Athleta going forward. Okay. Last, let me finish as I talk about our brands with Gap brand. And I was kind of starting and ending with Gap brand when we started speaking a year ago. I knew we had a rebuilding year in front of us. It started with new leadership, a new team around that leadership. It worked to get the brand centered back on its casual, optimistic, American aesthetic, and then rebalancing the assortment to assert our rightful share in key categories where Gap has always played. So, the last couple of weeks I've been in stores, I'm always in stores at the beginning of a big seasonal flow with a cross-functional team after our customers have had an opportunity to engage our products. First thing I would highlight is a renewed energy in our stores. It is partly a function of our field team, which is world-class. It is partly a function of the fact that we have product in the stores that lights the stores up. It's optimistic, it's colorful, it's feminine for the women, it's masculine for the men, it's got the right level of sophistication for Gap as a brand and it is much more centered in what the appropriate aesthetic is for the brand. So I see the aesthetic coming through very strong casual, optimistic American. Second thing I see, across key categories, a knits complex that is fully developed to take advantage of share of wallet in knits. We have silhouettes and fabrication that cover a wide range of uses, we have color, we have print, we have pattern, we have neutrals, we have great quality in those knits and I see strong progress forward just by asserting our right to actually play as we should be playing in knits. Third, denim, core category of Gap. It's what the spring campaign has been focused on. Silhouettes, fabrications, wash and novelty, all right in the sweet spot of where denim trend is right now and I'm really optimistic about what I see coming in the denim business across all of our brands, but particularly in Gap brand. And so, again, I could go on and on about this. I could talk about our woven shirts programs, I could talk about intentional outerwear development, but I couldn't be more pleased with the progress that the team has made against their diagnosis a year ago on what needed to happen and how the product now shows up in the stores in front of our customers. One of the things I want to reiterate and just make sure everybody hears it and I'll say this again every time we talk is, I have strong conviction about the long-term growth prospects of this company and the work that we are doing to reestablish our dominance in key categories in our businesses, to reassert appropriate aesthetic expression of our brands, the continued growth across all of our channels and the broad-based geographic growth that we've put a structure in place to achieve. I am committed to that and we will continue to move down that path. Why I spend so much time talking about product is product is the foundation for gaining market share. And so I want to emphasize the fact that our commitment for growth is not just a commitment of building new stores and new geographies, of taking new channels to new places. It's also about moving these brands back to a place where they can gain market share in our core markets. So 2015, a year of rebuilding, a year of focusing on getting our product back on track, reestablishing the path for a couple of our key brands. I'm confident in Old Navy, a bump in the road, but I'm confident in the value proposition and what that brand means to our consumers. What I can assure you is my team and I have a great deal of urgency. I know what this company is capable of at our best. I know what these brands are capable of at their best. And I and my team are focused on not just achieving that for a moment, but achieving that with consistency. I'm looking forward to this coming year, I'm looking forward to seeing these brands start to perform to their potential and I want to thank you for your support. Now I'll turn it over to Sabrina. Sabrina L. Simmons - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you, Art. Good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin with our fourth quarter and full year results before turning to our outlook for 2016. It's important to note that our reported results include pre-tax costs related to our previously announced strategic actions totaling $25 million for the quarter and $132 million for the year. That is at the low end of our guidance range of $130 million to $140 million. $98 million of the total full-year charge is operating expense and the remainder hits gross margin. Now, starting with sales. Sales for the fourth quarter were $4.4 billion. Comp sales were down 7%. For the full year, comp sales were down 4%. On a reported basis, 2015 net sales were $15.8 billion. However, excluding the impact of foreign exchange, net sales would have totaled $16.2 billion, down 2%. Moving to gross margins. Fourth quarter gross profit totaled $1.4 billion and gross margin contracted 240 basis points to 32.8%. Merchandise margin was down 140 basis points as reported, but down only 80 basis points excluding the impact of our strategic actions and foreign exchange. Rent and occupancy deleveraged 100 basis points. For the full year, gross profit was $5.7 billion and gross margin was down 210 basis points to 36.2%. Merchandise margin was down 130 basis points as reported, but down only 60 basis points excluding the impact of our strategic actions and foreign exchange. Rent and occupancy deleveraged 80 basis points. Regarding SG&A, for the fourth quarter, total operating expenses were $1.1 billion. Marketing expenses totaled $169 million, $9 million below last year. For the full year, marketing expenses declined $61 million to $578 million. Total operating expenses for the year were $4.2 billion, about flat to last year. Turning to earnings, on a reported basis, fourth quarter earnings per share were $0.53 and full year EPS totaled $2.23. Excluding the impact of our strategic actions, adjusted EPS was $0.57 for the quarter and $2.43 for the year. Additionally, it's important to remember that FX negatively impacted full-year EPS by an estimated $0.14 or about five percentage points of growth. Regarding stores and capital expenditures, on a net basis, we closed five stores in 2015 and our square footage remained about flat. This includes about 150 Gap specialty store closures, broadly in line with our guidance. Store counts and square footage are listed in our press release. Capital expenditures totaled $726 million, which was below our guidance as we prudently reacted to the tougher business performance. Regarding balance sheet and cash flow, as a testament to the cash-generating power of our business, in an otherwise difficult year, free cash flow totaled about $870 million. Consistent with our commitment to distributing excess cash, we paid $377 million in dividends and returned $1 billion through repurchases during the year. We ended the year with $1.4 billion in cash and our ending share count was 397 million shares. Inventory dollars per store were about flat at the end of the fourth quarter, in line with our previous guidance and total inventory was down 1%. And now I'd like to share our outlook for 2016. We expect earnings per share to be in a range of $2.20 to $2.25 and operating margin to be about 9.5%. Embedded in our full-year guidance is a negative impact from foreign exchange of over $120 million in EBIT, which equates to about $0.19 of EPS or eight percentage points of EPS growth off of 2015's $2.43. Let me say more about foreign exchange given its significance. Our largest foreign subsidiaries are in Canada and Japan, with combined sales in these two countries of about $2 billion. 2016 will be the fourth consecutive year with meaningful headwinds from the strong U.S. dollar. Note that our hedges help to delay, but not eliminate the impact of depreciating foreign currencies. To paint the picture of how dramatically currency movements have impacted our results in recent years, I'd like to offer a few metrics. The cumulative impact of weaker foreign currencies to our reported sales results was more than $700 million over the past three years. Absent these headwinds, 2015 net sales would have totaled $16.5 billion, up about $900 million since 2012. The impact to the bottom line is also meaningful. We estimate that the impact to EPS has been about $0.40 since 2012. Here are some additional 2016 guidance metrics. We expect to add 40 net new stores with square footage to remain about flat. In line with our strategy, openings will be focused on China, Outlet and Athleta, while closures will continue to be weighted toward Gap brand. We are reducing capital spending in 2016 to support improvement in return on invested capital. We expect capital expenditures to be about $650 million with a continued focus on mobile and supply chain capabilities. We expect depreciation and amortization to be about $560 million. Given our comp includes both store and online sales, we decided to guide to total inventory in 2016. We expect total inventory to be down in the low single digits at the end of the first quarter. Regarding expenses, it's important to note that SG&A may deleverage against our 2015 reported levels as we potentially restore some categories of expense, such as incentive-based comp. And lastly, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be about 38%. Finally, underscoring our commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders, we announced a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization. As a reminder, our $400 million term loan matures in 2016. We currently intend to allocate a portion of our cash flow to repay this. Therefore, 2016 repurchases will likely be meaningfully lower than our historic average. In conclusion, 2015 was a challenging year for us and others in our sector. Despite our disappointing performance, it's important to highlight some of our strengths as we enter 2016. First, we believe that our size and portfolio of brands are a competitive advantage in areas such as sourcing, real estate and e-commerce; second, as our track record has demonstrated, we of course plan to maintain our operating discipline; and finally, our reliable cash generation and strong balance sheet allow us to make investments in areas like technology and supply chain needed to win in this evolving retail landscape over the long-term. Thank you, and now I'll turn it back over to Jack. Jack Calandra - SVP-Corporate Finance & Investor Relations: That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the call to questions. We'd appreciate limiting your questions to one per person.