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The Gap, Inc. (GAP)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 16, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Jemariah, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Gap Inc. Second Quarter 2012 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce your host, Katrina O'Connell, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Katrina O'Connell

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Gap Inc.'s Second Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. For those of you participating in the webcast, please turn to Slides 2 and 3. I'd like to remind you that the information made available on this webcast and conference call contains forward-looking statements. For information on factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, as well as reconciliations of measures we're required to reconcile to GAAP financial measures, please refer to today's press release as well as our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, all of which are available on gapinc.com. These forward-looking statements are based on information as of August 16, 2012, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements. Joining us on the call today are Chairman and CEO, Glenn Murphy; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Sabrina Simmons. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Glenn.

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

Thank you, Katrina, and good afternoon, everybody. As has been customary in the last number of calls, I'm going to provide some color on the performance in the second quarter and then I'm going to hand over to Sabrina, who will take you through a much more detailed review financially. Now the second quarter, there was a lot of bright spots inside the business that we feel good about. There's been a lot of effort, a lot of energy being directed to get us to where we are today. So I think the best thing for me to do is maybe take you through some of those bright spots and give you my sense of what we're doing and to give you a little more information behind the P&L. So let's start with sales, which was very positive in the second quarter. We had a 4% comp, and that was made up by our 3 North American brands: a 7% comp in Gap North America, 7% Banana Republic and a 3% comp at Old Navy. And that's the second quarter in a row where the disbursement of our comp was very much driven almost equally across all 3 of the brands. That's very positive. When that happens, our business does very well, as you can see by the $0.49 earnings per share the company accomplished. Now there are a number of reasons why our business has been consistently positive for the first half of this year. The number one reason is product, and where there's been a lot of focus, a lot of effort starting late last year with our product teams. I'm really proud of the work they've done in the first half, whether that's on the right styles, which, obviously, we've had great success with so far, particularly…

Sabrina L. Simmons

Analyst

Thank you, Glenn. Good afternoon, everyone. We're very pleased with our second quarter performance as we again made meaningful progress against our 2012 priorities, including driving increased sales, investing in our business and growing earnings per share. Here are some highlights. Consistent with the first quarter, net sales were up 6%, comparable sales were up 4% and our North American divisions, again each posted positive comps. Operating margin was up 200 basis points. Earnings per share grew 40%. And in addition, we generated strong free cash flow and returned approximately $410 million to shareholders through our share repurchases and dividends. Please turn to Slide 4 for our earnings recap. In the second quarter, operating income was up $91 million or 27%. Net earnings were up $54 million and earnings per share were $0.49, up from $0.35 last year. Turning to Slide 5, sales performance. Second quarter total sales were $3.6 billion, up 6% with comp sales up 4%. Total sales and comps by division are listed in our press release. Turning to Slide 6, gross profit. Gross profit dollars grew by 14% to $1.4 billion. Second quarter gross margin was up 300 basis points to 39.9%. Our merchandise margins were up 210 basis points driven by the combination of growth in average unit retail and decreases in average unit costs. Rent and occupancy leveraged 90 basis points. Turning to inventory on Slide 7. As foreshadowed in our July sales press release, inventory per store in terms of dollars was down 6% on last year's up 5%. Please turn to Slide 8 for operating expenses. We’ve noted throughout the year that we plan to invest more in our businesses in 2012 and highlighted that it's likely we'll deleverage operating expense. In line with that framework, second quarter total operating expenses were…

Katrina O'Connell

Analyst

That concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now open up the call to questions. And we'd appreciate limiting your questions to one per person. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question will come from the line of Barbara Wyckoff with Credit Agricole Securities. Barbara Wyckoff - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division: Can you talk about China and potential expansion in China? How many stores are you going to open over the next 3 or 4 years? Can you compare some of the metrics on those stores relative to, say, the U.S. stores or Japan?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

It's a little premature to talk out 3 to 4 years what -- just as a sort of reminder to everybody on the phone, we're going to do 30 stores this year. That's our commitment. The news within that 30-store profile is that we're going to open up in 5 new cities. So we'll be in 10 cities at the end of the year, which sort of part of our real estate strategy was to go into Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong. And then last year, we opened up in 2 other cities, which were Tianjin and Hangzhou, and we're going be in 5 more cities by the end of this year. Such newsworthy because it allows us to answer your question actually, Barbara, which is, I'm not saying anybody, but brands, if you have a brand positioning globally, you can go into Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong and likely carve yourself up a decent-sized business. But to find out how big can China become given the fact that it's the second biggest market for apparel in the world, just passed Japan about 12 months ago, we decided to go in and make sure how well can we perform. But again, to your point on productivity, on return on capital, on sort of overall sales, how can we do in markets that we're going to need to get into and penetrate and be successful in order to have a meaningful business. So that's important for us to learn that. Second thing we did, we went online day 1, which we'll have our second anniversary this November. That was also important to find out: how would the Chinese consumers buy online, because it's different than it is here in the U.S., and that's not uncommon. In a lot of countries, the online…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Morris with Bank of Montréal.

John D. Morris - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

I wanted to ask a little bit about the plans that you have talked about with respect to taking some of the savings that you've had from lower product costs, cotton and whatnot. You mentioned and touched on this in some of your prepared remarks, but maybe go a little bit deeper where we might expect to see that reinvestment deployed. I think we've talked about fabrics before, but you're pointing to labor, payroll and, it sounds like, marketing. So knowing those, maybe go deeper on each one of those and how you see the returns from those investments coming in, what gives you the confidence that you'll see the returns? Clearly, we see the improvement in product, but more color there would be great.

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

I'll take them in the order in which you put them forward, John. I'd say in the product side, which is -- and you add together the amount of money that Sabrina and I were comfortable, working with our brand presence this year, reinvesting in 2012 given, one, our -- a sort of stepped up level of confidence. We are nowhere near where we want to be, but we'd start feeling more comf [ph] than last fall as we look towards the spring and what our teams were able to get done and some of the changes, obviously, we made to get the confidence we started to feel internally last fall. So it starting with the product piece, that's the larger amount of the reinvest we're making in product. You saw some in the spring, and we were able, in the spring, to get an early read and we have ways these days to get a little earlier read than we used to. So I would say that, that encouraged us to continue on the same path. Maybe a bit of a step-up in investment in the third quarter in product, and the fourth quarter will be about the same as the third quarter. So the majority of this is, if you talk to our teams, and you've heard me say this before, but it's always worth repeating, to me the success ultimately of us selling products at full price and driving the kind of AUR performance that we believe we need to have inside of this business given our brands starts with having the right styles, and that's -- belongs to our design team, and having the right color. That's in spite of the move towards a color trend this year. We were not happy with the colors we…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Brian Tunick with JPMorgan. Brian J. Tunick - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I guess, Glenn, we know we're still a month away, I guess, from the new Old Navy President starting, but wondering if you can give some of your thoughts of -- how you thought the 2Q numbers looked at that business, and then how you think that brand is positioned today and sort of what's your hopes maybe a year from now of what you and the new President can do for the positioning and also what he brings to the overall company.

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

Well, I have -- I have a lot of thoughts on that, but I'm going to keep it short because, obviously, for the company to step up and hire somebody as impressive as Stefan from such a company that we respect like H&M just because we do believe, through multiple meetings with him in the spring before he made the decision he was going to join us, we liked how he was thinking about retail, about product, about winning and what he's done in his past and his global experience. So as I said in the previous call, we're just very excited for him to join us in October. In advance of him joining us, and I'll get back to him in a second, I'm quite pleased with what Nancy Green and Tom Sands have done. You've got to give them credit. A lot of times at retail, when a leader leaves, businesses tend to sort of stay status quo, in some cases even flounder, because leadership changes can be impactful on a brand. And so kudos to them. We might step in to help out as much as I can, but they've really led that business and that team. I'd say the thing that they've been doing is, I think, that they've been really cleaning up and keeping the business simple, because I'm a big fan of taking on new initiatives in the business, and at times, you may take on a little bit too much and Old Navy is cleaning that up. They've gotten very, very focused on 3 initiatives. That's all they talk about. I'm not going to share those on the phone, but just 3 key focuses that whole business had, and that's what they brought. Another thing I will add, I believe our agency and…

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Dorothy Lakner with Caris & Company. Dorothy S. Lakner - Caris & Company, Inc., Research Division: A question for Sabrina. You gave us a lot of detail about how you're looking at gross margin and the various components, particularly on the merchandise margin side, in the second half of the year. And I know you had said after first quarter, don't expect that kind of leverage on rent and occupancy that we saw in the first quarter. And we didn't in second quarter. So my question is how should we look at that component of gross margin in the second half?

Sabrina L. Simmons

Analyst

And are you talking about, Dorothy, the ROD component in particular? Dorothy S. Lakner - Caris & Company, Inc., Research Division: Yes, yes.

Sabrina L. Simmons

Analyst

Yes. Yes. I guess to try and be helpful because we don't guide explicitly to ROD. I did take note, as you mentioned, in the first quarter that, that was an unusually high amount of leverage, and it would be not prudent, in our view, to extrapolate that. Sure enough, the ROD leverage was the same kind of level of comp at plus 4. It was 90 basis points in Q2. There are many variables that we've talked about that quarter-to-quarter could impact ROD, including the timing of our store openings, settlements with landlords, when amendments come through. So there's a lot of variables. But what I would say is the Q2 relationship to that level of comp is certainly a more appropriate level than we saw in Q1. So that would be a good kind of starting point to think about it for the rest of the year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Randy Konik with Jefferies & Company. Randal J. Konik - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Glenn, obviously, your tone is very upbeat. What did you think you have to -- where you could have improved during the next quarter to get to that next level for the company? And it looks like obviously, you're going to start to grow again here. So it feels like a more sustainable basis. Where do you think the organization at this size can grow if we think about a normalized growth rate? And then lastly, do you -- what's your long-term kind of vision for Athleta? And do you think we're going to get some more concrete long-term vision on what you think -- how big you think that organization can be at your analyst meeting in the fall?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

Okay, let me try to deal with that one at a time. I'd say the first one, Randy, is something I -- to be repetitive, that's what I said to John, I think the traffic number was a number -- and I'm not here to rank necessarily all the metrics in order. Let's say you know the company, and a lot of people on the phone do. We're never really happy. And I think that our team has definitely embraced that sentiment. If there's a -- this is a quarter where we celebrate a few small wins. And we had some small wins, but the team executed well. We're particularly pleased, as I said in my opening comments, coming off last year where we were not at all happy with the business. Even though there was some circumstances outside of our control, we just weren't happy. Traffic is a number that we would prefer to not see negative. It's a number that we do look at holistically between our specialty business, our outlet business and our online business. If you look at it holistically, it's probably a different picture. But at the end of the day, our store traffic, being negative in the quarter, is something that all of our teams, our store leaders, our brand presidents all know that in order to be happy as a business, we'd like to see all our metrics in positive territory with the with the exception of AUC. Such is the way we have to start looking at the business. And -- but we also know that businesses' comp is an outcome. What -- how you get to comp is by taking certain strategies and really trying to take them deep. So this is just hypothetical, but maybe one brand is working more…

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Evren Kopelman with Wells Fargo Securities.

Evren Dogan Kopelman - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask about the Gap outlet channel. Maybe we see, I think, a lot of the time -- more of the time the products and the full-price stores and the marketing. Maybe talk about the products and marketing initiatives for the outlet stores. And how's store traffic there? Is it also negative? And how many stores are you at now? And where do you expect the growth there to be?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

Thanks for asking about outlet because that's -- I can talk about that business again. And like I said about the Athleta, we're very pleased and proud of our 2 leaders, Ann Doyle and Andi Owen, who run our 2 factory store outlet businesses. Is the traffic better there than in a specialty store? The answer is yes. So that's why I said earlier that if you take specialty plus outlet, plus online and bring that together as one traffic number, our traffic is actually not that bad. But we have to look at it at channel by channel by channel. And our outlet channel is definitely, the traffic is better. So that's good. I think that's a little bit about the -- just the overall traffic that is in that genre of real estate. But the other thing is our team -- I'm glad you mentioned marketing. Our team is actually -- again, for a team that had no marketing when I started here and don't have a big marketing budget, but they're very, very scrappy and smart about how they spend their marketing, and they have great customer connections, whether that's through emails or through some of the partnerships they've done. So I think the marketing there, which is not a big driver of this increase in our SG&A, but they are getting a little bit more marketing than they have in the past, so they're making good use of it. And what we don't talk about, and that's -- I think everybody on this -- on the phone always wants to focus on our specialty business, particularly Gap, which I understand. But the product improvement at the -- in the outlet channel has been equal, at a minimum equal if not, some feel, they argue, better. But the step-up in the product and the investments, what they've done there, has been great. Very, very impressed. I've been in those stores a lot. I'll be out on Friday in some of them. So those merchant teams, those marketing teams under that leadership of a channel which we feel we have a competitive advantage in, we would -- we will continue to drive globally, is nothing short of impressive. So that's -- it's good to see. And we have high expectations for them going forward, but that's -- they're off also to a very good start so far this year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Adrienne Tennant with Janney Capital Markets.

Adrienne Tennant - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Glenn, my question is it sounds like you're happy with the Old Navy television advertising. And I was wondering if there are any changes to the fall season marketing plan for Old Navy and if you'll be adding Gap TV back. And then, Sabrina, just a clarifying question. On your operating expense guidance, was that year-over-year or was that by percentage of sales?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

On Old Navy, as I -- as far as I know, that -- there's going to be maybe one last week of television in the third quarter. But what I'm happy about is that as you put this new platform together, back -- what has it been now, just less than a year, I'm really liking the new creative. So people, which is our core customer, are responding positively to what they've seen over the last couple of months, which I think has really helped our traffic profile. And let's see how -- what transpires in the fall and holiday. I think that the messaging, how it resonates, how well the creative is showing the product, goes back to what I said earlier. If you're making an investment in product, it has to have a follow-up investment in store space, in service model. And ultimately, marketing has to show the investments you're making in your product. And I think Old Navy team has done a really good job of that, as well as our agency. So maybe one last week, but I think it's better quality of marketing that we're putting out there. And I just saw the holiday and the Thanksgiving ideas the team has, and I actually feel really good about it. It's a lot of work still to be done, but they've put forward not only good Q3 ideas, but the early ideas behind Q4 certainly motivate me to make sure that their spend stays, at a minimum, equal to last year. But I think that's good. And I think you'll...

Sabrina L. Simmons

Analyst

And to clarify, Adrienne, thanks for asking the question, what we meant is in the second quarter, operating expenses were up $85 million. That translates to about 9% increase over LY. So we mean that in Q3 and Q4, you'd expect at least a 9% increase in operating expenses over last year's quarters.

Adrienne Tennant - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then Gap TV?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

No plans right now. I think one thing you should look for this fall is our new campaign just came out as we did shoot some film of the new Icons redefined campaign, which supports Be Bright. So it's the fall campaign for the Be Bright platform. And we're going to be in cinema with that and definitely on social media. And I think it's some of the better work we've also done. So is there television in Gap's future? Maybe. I mean, we never said we'll never do it. But at the same time, right now, we're very happy with the mediums we're using. We're being very effective. And digital's been a great medium for us. I think our new marketing team, our team here in San Francisco, our teams around the world and our team in -- teams in New York really have embraced digital. And if you can great content and use digital, I think that, that can be very effective, too. So if you do get a chance in the next week or so to see some of the film that was done and the content, it is really -- it's really well done. And it supports the brand, and I think it resonates very strongly. And could that lead to television? Only time will tell.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Betty Chen with Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Betty Y. Chen - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Glenn, I was hoping you can talk a little bit more about the core product categories for each of the brands. I know that you had mentioned that the team is certainly focusing behind them in terms of style and fit and many of the other categories to make sure that the consumers continue to really be compelled to buy them at the right price. So I was curious on so far, now that we've got 2 quarters down, how do you think about -- how is the team executing in those core categories in your opinion? And how is the team able to get earlier reads, as you had mentioned, I think, earlier in the call? What are some of the message you're using? And then lastly, I was just thinking in terms of the International business, certainly, we're going after many of the markets with different models. Now that we're -- still early on, but now that we're in some of these markets, have your thinking in terms of how you're going into these markets varied at all? And can we look for some changes in the future?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

Okay. It seems to be the day of 3 questions. So on the first one, what I do feel good about is that the stepped up performance in our top line sales, for the most part, has been driven by the categories we identified to make some reinvestments in. I think I was giving my theory on comp earlier. The same thing applies to product. Comp is an outcome. If you're -- if you have a 4% comp, like we did in the second quarter across our multiple brands, that was a 7% in Gap, a 7% in Banana Republic, a 3% at Old Navy, let's just take Banana Republic for now. So you had a 7% comp. To get to that, the team has to plan certain categories they really believe and want to invest with all the reasons I gave earlier to try to get to 10% comp in that business, a 12% comp. Because if you try to get everything at a 7%, you're going to make some mistakes and the outcome will not be a 7%. So what I do like about the business so far is where they decided to stand behind what they believed in. This is not new. We've always had categories we want to have a competitive advantage in, we want to be dominant in our competitive set and want, therefore, to find product assets. Those have not totally changed since I've been here. We've just been more focused on them. And this next slide was putting some money behind it, and I think that's really worked out. And I think the comp numbers are being driven in a large way by those categories we believe in. Early reads, all of our stores, we don't have a model like some other businesses.…

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Paul Lejuez with Nomura Securities.

Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

Glenn, you talked about traffic being down. Can you just clarify, was traffic down at each brand? And regardless of the answer there, can you maybe talk about what the comp drivers were at each of the brands, whether it be conversion, AUR, UPT, and how that might be likely to change as we move into the second half?

Glenn K. Murphy

Analyst

I think you answered your first question rightly because I can't give it out by brand. We were just sort of -- just given you a "total across the business" number. Sabrina can shed some light definitely on all the different metrics. I mean, I have the metrics, and I -- what I can say before I hand it to her is to repeat something I said earlier, which is important, that our teams definitely realize that you have to be at a -- look a little deeper into your -- into their business and say "Where do I want to drive something across some of the different metrics you mentioned," Paul, "to get to the right outcome?" But at the same time, they're always looking in the rearview mirror and going, "What are some other metrics" they may want to strengthen because something could happen to UPT that's not of our making, whether it's the economy or macro events. So they're always trying to find a way to make sure that the delta between our highest-performing metric and our worst-performing metric is not too wide. In our past, that's been a problem we had. so I think here, they're trying to make sure that they tighten that up. I'll let Sabrina give you some color on the metrics.

Sabrina L. Simmons

Analyst

Yes, and just a little bit more color on traffic because Glenn has been talking about that a bit, I mean, as he mentioned Gap outlet in particular. But the outlet and Old Navy relative to the other divisions, I think it's fair to say that value segment has had better traffic than the specialty segment, broadly speaking, on traffic. With regard to the other comp lever metrics, again, we don't put [ph] division by division, but it's generally true that average unit retail being up and conversion being up are the 2 strongest metrics that drove the performance across the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your final question for today will come from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Lorraine Maikis Hutchinson - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

I just wanted to follow up on the operating margin guidance of 11%. You're running nicely above that year-to-date. I understand there are some investments to continue to be made. But what are the drivers that would cause the operating margin to fall below 11% to get to your full year target in the back half?

Sabrina L. Simmons

Analyst

As you know, Lorraine, I think there's just a lot of scenarios we run, and I think we landed on about 11% because of the architecture of how we're looking at how the year will unfold. We obviously have said it is our primary objective to drive consistent top line growth with healthy merchandise margins. So we definitely want to see that nice expansion. Offsetting some of that, we tried to be very clear that we expect to deleverage on operating expenses. So between that combination, it's how we get to about 11%. What we're pleased with is we started the year with about 10% guidance, and it's obviously another objective of ours to expand our operating margin back over time. So this is a nice step back, standing here in Q2, that we feel comfortable bringing it up a whole point.

Katrina O'Connell

Analyst

I'd just like to thank everyone for joining the call today. As a reminder, our earnings press release, which is available on gapinc.com, contains a full recap of our Q2 results as well as the forward-looking guidance included in Sabrina's remarks. And as always, the Investor Relations team will be available after the call for further questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's Gap Inc. Second Quarter 2012 Conference Call. You may now disconnect.