Mel Hope
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
Thanks, Chris. I'm going to start by focusing on our fourth quarter performance and expanding on the operational results that we announced on January 9. As we shared then, same-restaurant sales growth in the quarter was7.7%. Total revenues were $185.7 million, which is an increase of 14.2% over the fourth quarter of 2021. As we indicated during our November 7 earnings call, the fourth quarter got off to a slow start as Hurricane Ian temporarily closed 85 of our restaurants. Through the middle of the quarter, traffic picked back up despite some lingering impacts of the hurricane. However, during the last week of the quarter, both Winter Storm Elliott and a holiday shift negatively impacted our traffic in almost all our markets. We estimate that this combination of events reduced our traffic by about 210 basis points or roughly $3.1 million of restaurant sales. Our food and beverage costs were 23.7% of sales in the fourth quarter. We continue to experience inflation of about 7.7% across our market basket, where our top 5 commodities are eggs, potatoes, coffee, avocados and bacon; which comprise about 35% of the basket. Given that eggs has been a hot topic, we believe it's helpful to add a little bit more color about how we address our egg supply. We understand that the industry production is projected to approach full recovery around the middle of this year. As in the prior year, we're again purchasing our eggs and potatoes under a fixed price agreement. These annual pricing agreements serve the company well by securing supply and protecting us from the most severe volatility of the spot market. They also give us reliable line of sight on our costs associated with these two commodities, which together make up about 15% of our food costs. Labor and other related expenses were 34.5% of sales in the fourth quarter, up from 33.3% in the third quarter and 32.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The increase year-over-year was in part due to hourly inflation of 11.4% and the impact of certain inefficiencies in our reaction to the choppy fourth quarter traffic. In January of 2023, we upgraded some of our labor dashboards and improved our processes around labor management. Thus far, first quarter labor as a percent of sales has been trending favorably. Our restaurant level operating profit was $30.5million for the quarter with a margin of 16.7%. In the quarter, we believe our 65 noncomp restaurants had about 360 basis points of potential margin improvement to reach the similar performance of our 301 comp restaurants, which are obviously our most mature units. I want to call out preopening costs specifically, which were $1.8million in the fourth quarter and $5.4 million for all of 2022. Our preopening rent alone increased $833,000 year-over-year, as we deliberately negotiated with landlords to enter units earlier and work alongside the developer's contractors to bring about the earliest opening dates possible. Earlier access better positions us not only to meet our development schedule, but also place our new restaurants on the path to realizing more mature margins sooner in the following year. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $15.1 million with a margin of 8.1%. We believe we have about $1.2 million in unrealized adjusted EBITDA due to the impacts of the aforementioned storms and the holiday shifts. General and administrative expenses, was $21.8 million, down from the fourth quarter last year when we incurred a stock compensation expense of $5.3 million at the time of the IPO. We opened 16 new restaurants during the quarter, 11 of which were company-owned and five of which were opened by our franchise partners. Our net income includes costs of about $400,000 incurred in connection with our shelf registration filed on November 7. I'm not going to spend time taking listeners back through the full year results that are in our earnings release and in our 10-K. But I would reiterate Chris' comment that our teams overcame a challenging economic climate to deliver another remarkable year of growth at First Watch and frankly, I cannot be more proud of them. Given my earlier statement that the fourth quarter was softer than expected due to several significant events, I want to share a few things about what we're experiencing in the first quarter of 2023, which ends on March 26. The holiday calendar shift, I mentioned earlier, that negatively impacted our fourth quarter in turn benefited us early in the first quarter and we broke out of the gate fast. The beginning of the quarter was also positively impacted by our lapping of the Omicron variant last year. Through the second period of the first quarter, our same-restaurant sales and traffic growth was 15.7% and 8.5% respectively. I'd like to remind you that in March of 2022 we began rolling much stronger comps and as such, the current month poses a formidable same-restaurant sales comparison. Early in the quarter, we rolled over the 3.9% price increase we took in January of 2022 and during the fifth week of the quarter we took a 4.1% increase. Averaging those, for the first quarter, we have 6.9% increased price in place. We opened six system-wide restaurants thus far in the quarter. And finally as a reminder and just to keep things interesting, 2023 is a 53-week fiscal year for us. Our fourth quarter will be a 14-week quarter and we expect the impact of that extra holiday week to be roughly $10.5 million in sales and $2.5 million in adjusted EBITDA. Our full year outlook is as follows. We expect same-restaurant sales growth of 6% to 8% in 2023 built on positive traffic growth for the year. We expect total revenue growth in the range of 15% to 19% and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $76 million to $81 million, both of these numbers include the 53rd week. We expect commodity inflation of 4% to 6% and hourly labor inflation of 9% to 11%. We expect to open between 38 and 42 company-owned restaurants and 10 to 12 franchise-owned restaurants and we expect these openings to be weighted more heavily in the back half of the year similar to our cadence in 2022. We also plan to close three company-owned restaurants, resulting in a total of 45 to 51 net new system-wide restaurants in 2023. Given the increasing pace of new restaurant openings, we expect capital expenditures between $100 million and $110 million. In addition to the increase in the number of projects into which we will be investing this year, we're also continuing to invest in sites with more square footage, indoor or outdoor bars, larger patios, and expanded back of house equipment to accommodate our higher sales volumes. We have seen an increase in the expected build-out cost of our new restaurants, which now average $1.4 million net of tenant improvement allowances on a per restaurant basis. We expect sales in these restaurants to average $2.5 million in their third year of operation with restaurant level operating profit margin in the range of 18% to 20%. This delivers a planned cash-on-cash return above 35% in that third year. We've updated these unit economic figures in the investor information that we post quarterly on our Investor Relations website. We expect our blended tax rate to be 36% to 38% in 2023. And while we don't guide to quarterly results, I do want to take a moment to share some of our planning considerations that are going to influence the growth trend of our adjusted EBITDA during 2023. While just over half of our adjusted EBITDA growth is allocated in the first half of the year, the first quarter will represent less of that allocation given the three week gap between the pricing actions as well as the formidable March comparison that I mentioned earlier. Similarly, in the third quarter, our planned ramp of both preopening expenses and G&A investment may cause adjusted EBITDA during that quarter to be roughly equal to the same period a year-ago. Finally, I'd also like to reiterate the company's long-term annual financial targets which have not changed. These include percentage unit growth in the low double-digits annual same-restaurant sales growth of about 3.5%, restaurant sales and adjusted EBITDA percentage growth in the mid-teens. For further detail on the fourth quarter or the fiscal year, please visit our supplemental materials deck on our Investor Relations website. And at this time, I'm going to ask the operator to open the line for your questions.